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Leftovers
Sunday, 26 August 2012
A new meme?
Now Playing: Scalene
Topic: Politics

Perhaps we can call it "the blue state model."

1.  There's a difference between a farrior and a blacksmith.  100 Years ago there was significant overlap but for the most part that is no more (think barber/surgeon.)

2.  The City of Detroit has done away with  their mounted units.

3.  In a glaring example of government inefficiency, a recent study found a horseshoer still working for The Detroit Water and Sewerage Department.

It's a union gig.  They can't get rid of him.  And several others are collecting pensions!  

Long live the blue state model

 


Posted by RWK at 13:56 EDT
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Saturday, 25 August 2012
1,000 Words
Topic: Media

 
write your own caption

Posted by RWK at 10:32 EDT
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Wonder what they'd be sayin' if they'd won?
Now Playing: Making Sense
Topic: Poker

When the same sequence of cards was dealt at a mini-baccarat table at Atlantic City's Golden Nugget casino twice in a row, was it just probability in action. Out of all the packs of shuffled cards in the world, the cards ending up in the same order happens now and then. Then the cards came up in the same sequence a third time. Fourth. Fifth. The players played forty-one hands where the cards came up in the same order, betting larger and larger amounts each hand. Wouldn't you? They ultimately won more than $1.5 million. Casino security staff swarmed the table, trying to figure out how the fourteen players at the table were cheating. They weren't. A vendor allegedly supplied the casino with packs of unshuffled cards, which were dealt as-is. Now the casino is suing the fourteen gamblers and the playing card company, and the gamblers are countersuing the casino.

The gamblers were allowed to cash in $558,900 worth of chips, but the casino argues that the win isn't legit because the game was unfair to the house. Gambling regulations in New Jersey state that gambling must be fair to both sides. No fixing games, no cheating. Even though the players did nothing wrong, the casino claims that the baccarat games were fixed...if unintentionally. They want the games to be declared illegal.

The Golden Nugget isn't the only casino in Atlantic City where this has happened recently. The Trump Taj Mahal dealt unshuffled cards for three and a half hours without noticing last year, and was fined $90,000 by the state.

Unshuffled cards a costly headache for AC casinos


Posted by RWK at 10:27 EDT
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Friday, 24 August 2012
202
Topic: Running

GREAT tme trial

600: have been 2:11-2:13 for the last 45 days.  Bad plateau.  Starting to worry a bit.  Need to get under 2:10.  Today?  2:02!  9s improvement.  1.5/100m.  Walkin' on sunshine

300:  have been hovering in the low 57's.  Today?  56.2.  As Martha would say "that's a good thing.

100:  have been in the low to mid 16's.  Today?  15.3!  scores an age-graded 75.1.  Means I'm ready for regional competition.  

All in all a super time trial,  Was afraid speed work might have to  wait until October.  Now I'll start it nex week. 

Proposed:

Saturday: 3 miles of road work

Sunday:  4-7 400m 80-93s, 2' rest

Monday: weights/rest/roadwork

Tuesday: 8-16 100m 18-21 1' rest

Wednesay: same as monday

Thursday: 4-6 500m 1:42-1:57 2' rest (this is a killer)

Friday: 3-5 1600m 7:23 - 9:00 8' rest

then re-evaluate.  If during any workout a rep is below minimum pace it doesn't count.  If a second one is below minimum pace I stop and go home, take the next day OFF and pick up with this workout again the following day.  If the miss is after the minimum number of reps, the workout is over.


Posted by RWK at 16:36 EDT
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Lies, damned lies, statistics, and political polls
Topic: Numbers
Poll-Tested Fictions over at NRO by Yuval Levin
 
money quote: As any pollster worth his salt would tell you, the only words that matter in the question used by the Times are the first words of each description: “Medicare should continue as it is today” vs. “Medicare should be changed.” That is the essence of the poll’s deception, since obviously “Medicare should continue as it is today” is not an option, and is not what the Democrats are proposing. Republicans propose to have the program continue as it is for current seniors and near retirees, Democrats propose to have it continue as it is for no one, and both of them want to change it for future seniors. The question is how. And the answer is basically that the Democrats want to test the idea that yet more price controls and central planning will make the system more efficient while Republicans want to test the idea that intense competition for customers among providers will make the system more efficient.
 
So ... do you want to go to bed tonight or wake up in the morning?

Posted by RWK at 14:03 EDT
Updated: Friday, 24 August 2012 14:04 EDT
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Thursday, 23 August 2012
The Underpants Dwarves should try this
Topic: Economics


Posted by RWK at 23:15 EDT
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1,000 Words
Topic: Economics

Yesterday, Cutter appeared on MSNBC and was asked about Obama's economic record. She claimed that Obama's "recovery" had created 4.5 million private sector jobs. She went on to claim that Obama has created more jobs than Reagan. 

I realize media fact-checkers will be reluctant to dig into Cutter's statement, so I'll save them the effort. Her statement is false. It isn't true. Hell, its not even on the same continent as the truth. 

When Obama took office, the US was officially emerging out of a recession. The country suffered a severe recession during the first two years of Reagan's first term, as the Fed took steps to wring inflation out of the economy. 

Both men were facing very tough economic climates. Reagan responded with, first, across the board tax cuts and, after reelection, comprehensive tax reform. Obama responded by borrowing a huge pot of money and throwing it at state and local governments, renewable energy fantasies and other boondoggles and a smattering of minor tax breaks. Oh, and a new entitlement, regulations and a promise of higher taxes. In response, the economy under Reagan surged, and added almost 17 million jobs during his tenure. Under Obama it has, at best, limped along.

When Obama took office, there were 142 million people employed. Last month, there were 142.2 million people employed. A tad under 200,000 more people have jobs today than had them when Obama was sworn in. In January 2009, 11.6 million people were unemployed. Today, 12.7 million are unemployed.

 

from BigGovernment.com

 


Posted by RWK at 22:57 EDT
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Cookin' the books
Now Playing: Burn Notice
Topic: Numbers

The latest AP-GfK poll on the presidential race of 1,007 people of whom 878 are registered voters shows Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 48% to 44%. That four-point lead is down from 10 points in May and six points in June. The August poll only ended up with Obama in the lead because of extraordinary overweighting of Democrats and a ridiculously small percentage of people who describe themselves as strong Republicans.  Overall they polled D +6. 

By contrast, Gallup and Rasmussen show significantly different party identification nationally.

Gallup's latest result is 29% Dems, 26% GOP. Its 11 polls on the topic this year have Democrats with an average advantage of just over 2%.

On August 1, Rasmussen showed Republicans with a tiny lead of 34.9% to 34.0%.

Obama's advantage would have evaporated and turned into a slight Romney lead with a representative sample.

But it wouldn't be a presidential election season without poll cooking by AP-GfK, would it?

Read more: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/tom-blumer/2012/08/22/ap-gfk-presidential-poll-cooking-resumes-naturally-oversamples-dems#ixzz24Qc90fiC

Posted by RWK at 22:52 EDT
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Something else The One doesn't get
Topic: Politics

and neither do his supporters.

from Matthew Schmtz over at the Anchoress

“There is a nice passage in Joseph de Maistre, the counter-revolutionary, the enemy of the French Revolution, where he says that human beings are not able to build things, because when they try to create something they do not get it. You cannot really produce new and interesting things. It is just given, by the process of history, by God, or whatever. And if there is a case where he was wrong, it is in the case of the United States of America. It’s the only successful political foundation, as the Federalists would say, ‘by design and choice.’

“It is not a question of agreeing with American policy or politics, I think, but if you are not able to treat the United States for the great political-civic accomplishment it is, you miss something huge in the political landscape, and your view of politics in general is biased.”

-Pierre Manent, “By Design and Choice”

 

 


Posted by RWK at 19:29 EDT
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