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Leftovers
Thursday, 21 June 2012
That loud noise you heard was the Obama economy getting better
Now Playing: South Park
Topic: Economics

Just got notified by MJCC that they have no classes for me summer quarter.  So I'm out of work.  But I can't file for unemployment.  So the figures get better.

yea.


Posted by RWK at 14:20 EDT
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Wednesday, 20 June 2012
Won't you be my neighbor?
Now Playing: Federalist #5
Topic: Media

Remember Mr. Rogers going to the Land of Make Believe?  Know who he must've met there often?  Mr. Obama.

We recenlty learned that President Obama’s description of substantive aspects of his grandfather’s life are fictional, as are other details in his preferred narrative: an inspirational black girlfriend in college who turns out to be white; a close black friend in grade school who’s actually Japanese and Native American, and not all that close; a 20-year pastor and mentor who, it turns out, is “not the man I knew;” Bill Ayers is just “some guy in the neighborhood.”

The fantasies aren’t confined to Obama’s biography. He’s the most fiscally prudent president of the last 50 years. The private sector is “doing fine.” Guantanamo can be closed with the stroke of a pen. The “most transparent administration in history” can invoke executive privilege and frustrate FOIA multiple requests. The unemployment rate will never rise above 8 percent if he spends $800 billion on shovel ready jobs that, admittedly, don’t exist. Russia will cooperate in matters large and small upon mere presentment of a “reset” button. Bows, apologies, and teleprompter speeches will prompt Middle Eastern despots to join hands with the West and skip merrily through the daisies. He will lower the oceans and heal the planet.

read the whole thing from Peter Kirsanow

 


Posted by RWK at 16:43 EDT
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Tuesday, 19 June 2012
How Gubbment Worx
Topic: Politics
from the Blogfather:

HOW GOVERNMENT WORKS: “Amtrak is sending emails to inform customers that they will get a discount on their train tickets if they donate money to organizations that will then lobby for more Amtrak subsidies.”

From Gary Leff. “Americans who pay to support more subsidies get charged less to travel on subsidized trains than those who oppose the subsidies.”


Posted by RWK at 14:01 EDT
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Go Wolverines ....or whoever
Topic: Sports

In case you haven't heard, the Kent State baseball team is in the College World Series. It's a pretty big deal. When you think of big baseball programs, Kent State is never one that comes to mind.

Last night, they won a game and staved off elimination. Ted Strickland sent out a tweet to congratulate them.


"Great win for the Zips tonight against FL in the College World Series"

Posted by RWK at 07:46 EDT
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Monday, 18 June 2012
Remember yesterday
Now Playing: Library of Liberty: Right to Assemble
Topic: Numbers

when I posited that Pa was going to be the biggie?

read this: Obama Is in Serious Trouble in Pennsylvania


Posted by RWK at 19:44 EDT
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1,000 Words
Now Playing: Never Let Me Go
Topic: Economics

ReaganVsObamaFTvPT35mosPostRec


Posted by RWK at 10:42 EDT
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Bicentennial Minute
Topic: misc

President James Madison signed Congress’s Declaration of War against Britain on June 18, 1812, inaugurating the unimaginatively named War of 1812.

Ruchard Brookhiser has more


Posted by RWK at 10:31 EDT
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Sunday, 17 June 2012
Electoral map
Now Playing: Dark Star
Topic: Politics

The moves t declare "everybody" a legal voter in Florida, along with the move to decide unilaterally who is and is not a citizen is frightening.  One of my readers is much darker on te subject than I am, and I'm tending to move in his direction this week.

 over at 270towin.com I start with red and blue states allocated to the party that won them in 2008 with the exception of 10 toss up states.  As of this week:  

NV still goes red - the Mormons will top the union/black/hispanic/illegal vote.

Colorado, New Hampshire and Virginia all go blue.  Not married to this but if it's close, red looses and those will all be close.

Florida.  A REAL conundrum.  IMHO a VP Rubio could deliver it.  Otherwise it's close and goes blue and wins the Obama 2nd term regardless of Ohio and Pa.  NOT a good thing.  So Romney MUST win FLA (assuming the above losses).

Obama must then win any 2 of OH/PA and WI.    IMHO Iowa is a nonfactor even though in play but I don't see it's six EV making it a bettleground state at this point.  So I'll turn it blue.  Romney must then win PA and either OH or WI for the win.  And PA's a tough sell.  But right now, with OH and WI trending red I think PA is the big fight.

FWIW If OH and WI go red and PA goes blue, we have ourselves a tie (assuming no elector shenanigans - see 1968).   The House,with one vote per state, selects from the 3 top EV getters.  Yes kids, if Ron Paul gets 2EV (to keep it a tie situation) he COULD be elected POTUS.  Nt happening, bt an interesting scenario for a Kingmaker.  The Elphs currently control 33 state votes.  Too tough to forecast a change in a state delegation at this point, esp with new seats and old seat factored in.

There are over a dozen states that are within 2 seats of flipping to donk.  As we get into October we'll do more analysis on these if need be

 


Posted by RWK at 11:59 EDT
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Saturday, 16 June 2012
But they were wearing while lab coats!
Topic: Edumacation

I've added this to my vocabulary as a tweak to my FiL.  He has a MA in Biology, was a VP of a textbook publishing company and prays regularly at the alter of AGW Environmentalism, listening to the sermons on NPR.  His God is science.  Fair enough.  But I enjoy tweaking him with "bad science".  See he views me as an anti-science Rethuglican when in reality I'm a "good science" supporting Libertarian.  But his mind's made up - don't confuse him with the facts.

So imagince my delight when I stumbled across this: 

 
The Q&D: a random walk is a mathematical formalisation of a trajectory that consists of taking successive random steps. For example, the path traced by a molecule as it travels in a liquid or a gas, the search path of a foraging animal, the price of a fluctuating stock and the financial status of a gambler can all be modeled as random walks. The term random walk was first introduced by Karl Pearson in 1905.

From the Financial Post: A 2011 study in the Journal of Forecasting took the same data set and compared model predictions against a “random walk” alternative, consisting simply of using the last period’s value in each location as the forecast for the next period’s value in that location.

 

The test measures the sum of errors relative to the random walk. A perfect model gets a score of zero, meaning it made no errors. A model that does no better than a random walk gets a score of 1. A model receiving a score above 1 did worse than uninformed guesses. Simple statistical forecast models that have no climatology or physics in them typically got scores between 0.8 and 1, indicating slight improvements on the random walk, though in some cases their scores went as high as 1.8.

The climate models, by contrast, got scores ranging from 2.4 to 3.7, indicating a total failure to provide valid forecast information at the regional level, even on long time scales. The authors commented: “This implies that the current [climate] models are ill-suited to localized decadal predictions, even though they are used as inputs for policymaking.”……

 

But .... they were wearing white lab coats!

 

 


Posted by RWK at 17:00 EDT
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You'd think ....
Topic: Media

the NYT Supreme Court correspondant would, you know.....cover the Supreme Court.

Ed Whalen notes a certain "lack of awareness."

Linda Greenhouse’s Casual Wild Falsehood About Bush v. Gore

In the course of her latest commentary, Linda Greenhouse writes:

In Bush v. Gore, the five most conservative justices, no great fans of an expansive reading of the Equal Protection Clause, surprised the world in 2000 by declaring that the Florida Supreme Court’s recount order violated equal protection in failing to assure uniform vote-counting standards across the state. The five were then so abashed at having invoked the Equal Protection Clause to stop the recount, and so afraid of inadvertently unleashing a new equal protection revolution, that they proclaimed that their opinion was never to be cited in any future case. [Emphasis added.]

 

In fact, the entirely innocuous passage in Bush v. Gore on which Greenhouse’s massive distortion rests is:

Our consideration is limited to the present circumstances, for the problem of equal protection in election processes generally presents many complexities.

In short, the majority warned against overreading its reasoning and misapplying it to different circumstances, but the justices nowhere “proclaimed that their opinion was never to be cited in any future case.”

 


Posted by RWK at 16:51 EDT
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