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Discussion Paper 2012-10, Belfer Center
for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School
June 2012
Author: Leonardo Maugeri, Research Fellow, Geopolitics of Energy
Project
Belfer Center Programs or Projects: The Geopolitics of Energy
Project
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (Excerpt)
Contrary to what most people believe, oil supply capacity is growing
worldwide at such an unprecedented level that it might outpace
consumption. This could lead to a glut of overproduction and a
steep dip in oil prices.
Based on original, bottom-up, field-by-field analysis of most
oil exploration and development projects in the world, this paper
suggests that an unrestricted, additional production (the level
of production targeted by each single project, according to its
schedule, unadjusted for risk) of more than 49 million barrels
per day of oil (crude oil and natural gas liquids, or NGLs) is
targeted for 2020, the equivalent of more than half the current
world production capacity of 93 mbd.
After adjusting this substantial figure considering the risk factors
affecting the actual accomplishment of the projects on a country-by-country
basis, the additional production that could come by 2020 is about
29 mbd. Factoring in depletion rates of currently producing oilfields
and their reserve growth (the estimated increases
in crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids that could
be added to existing reserves through extension, revision, improved
recovery efficiency, and the discovery of new pools or reservoirs),
the net additional production capacity by 2020 could be 17.6 mbd,
yielding a world oil production capacity of 110.6 mbd by that
date as shown in Figure 1. This would represent the most
significant increase in any decade since the 1980s.