PREDICTIONS

Episode 14:
"The Ultimate Shock"
by
Andy Zarowny

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I'm combining Commentary and Predictions, again, especially since time is
short between shows.  Here are the spoilers from the official CBS website:
"The Final Four rethink their strategies when a once-solid alliance dissolves
with the slip of a tongue.  After an emotional Tribal Council, arguments erupt,
feelings are hurt  and friendships are questioned.  A shocking development
during the Final Immunity Challenge promises to go down in SURVIVOR
history.  Tears and harsh words fuel a tense session between the Jury and
the Final Two."

First, my guess is that the "tongue slip" may be more Ian-Katie drama or maybe
something Jennifer says.  It would be nice if she ratted Katie out completely
to Tom and Ian in hopes of securing a spot on the Final Three.  The second
item is, again, probably Ian-Katie drama, with more boo-hooing at Tribal Coun-
cil over who betrayed who.  Not sure what the shock will be, but the word is
that this season's endurance test goes a very long time.  It's possible that Ian makes a deal with Tom that he will let go and let Tom win if Tom promises to take Katie to the Finals. One bails out after eight hours, the other gives up at the Eleven-Hour mark.  As for tears, more Ian-Katie stuff and or harsh words,
Coby and Stephenie are bound to stir the pot.  Keep in mind that Caryn is a
prosecutor and might rip both finalists apart.

In Episode 13, we saw the close friendship between Ian and Katie pushed to the
brink.  It is strained and on the edge.  A lot was made of the Gregg-Jenn rela-
tionship during the season, but it's only now we are seeing something here.
While it may not be sexual, or even physical, there is certainly something deep
here and it seems to be coming apart.  We have also seen that Jenn is more
isolated than she thought.  Gregg was her meal ticket in The Game.  While she
is a strong competitor, much more than Katie, she is only now really pushing
and it may be too little, too late.  Tom is in full-game-mode.  He's ready to take
this to the end.  Ian has the strength to go to the end, but his focus is now
blown, thanks to Katie.  Tom would've probably taken her anyway, as she
makes a great goat.

FINAL FOUR PICKS:
Jenn gets booted in TC14
Ian gets booted in TC15

FINALE VOTE:  Katie gets 2 votes (Ian and Jenn)  Tom gets 5 votes (the rest).

All in all, I think this has been a great season so far, and I look forward to a
rousing ending.  Tom's story arc has been the heroic one.  He is the archetypi
cal character for Mark Burnett to build upon.  Look for his professional heroics
during 9/11 to be mentioned during the live show and Tom blushing from the
ovation.  MB will be grinning ear to ear.  Tom has played strong and smart.
Not since Brian in Season 5 has any contestant deserved to win more than
Tom does.