Janurary 5, 2000

"Confidence comes from not always being right but from not fearing to be wrong" Peter McIntire

"We credit scarcely any person with good sense except those who are of our opinion" La Roche Foucald

"The art of being wise is knowing what to overlook" William James

"It's a rash man who reaches a conclusion before he gets to it" Jacob Levin

"We owe a debt of thanks to the people who sounded the early alarms on Y2K. Had there been no alarmists, the Y2K disaster would have been huge, because just 24 months ago there was widespread ignorance and denial of the problem." John Koskinen Y2K Czar (1/2/2000)

It is an absolute, pleasant surprise to arrive on the other side of the millennium not only unscathed, but to experience the utter joy and satisfaction of the world-wide celebrations that seemed to pull all of humanity into a unified sense of collective euphoria! Heck, even the weather was perfect! To witness this once-in-a-lifetime event come to pass in such a positive manner is quite inspirational to say the least.

Through such collective will to rise to the occasion and demolish the y2k bug, as was the case over the past months and years, we as a human race demonstrated once again that through working together toward a unified goal, essentially, for the most part, eradicated a serious, universal, technological threat. A threat that had it not been identified and tackled in a timely manner and with full vigor would surely have meant total disaster.

Clearly the alarm bells--rung loud, hard and persistently by y2k alarmists and activists--were definitely heeded by those in authority. Sufficient action and attention was taken on all sides, around the world to avert what was a very real threat to our modern, technologically advanced civilization.

It bring the author intense joy-- not disappointment -- that the worst of the dire assessments, expectations about y2k made on this site and by other prominent y2k experts were wrong in the proverbial end; defeated and disabled. In fact, the rollover was such a non-event even the ultra-optimists were confounded and surprised; it seems illogical this was the outcome, but I share in thier hubris. The reader may think the author to be licking my wounds, ashamed, stupid and silly...because I was "wrong"? Absolutely not!...for reasons shown below. This issue is exactly something I fully expected, and hoped for; some e-mails I received shortly after January 1 (the type one would expect): personal attacks based on misunderstood perceptions. A general response follows. These were received the day of the rollover:

"Glad you were wrong and I know you are too!" Robert

"I'm thinking you've got to feel pretty silly about now...

"Well Dan, I suppose that you and the other Y2K doomsday gurus are feeling a little silly right about now, so I won't rub your nose in it too much, but I can't resist just a little. Jan 1 has come and gone, and far from a collape of the global computer network, riots and mayhem in U.S. cities, and nuclear plant meltdowns, as you and your friends predicted [Author's note: I have never predicted these things. Just raised these possibilities], there has not been even 1, count 'em ONE significant failure! One question, what are you going to do with all those dry goods, generators, and cabins in the wilderness?. Hard things to sell right now, as there is sure to be a market glut of them! HAH HAH!!"

"Totally overreacted and jumped the gun about this issue. MEdia hype has fooled us all, we are still here and the world HAS NOT ended. I admit that I thought something bad was going to happen, but guess what? WE ARE ALL OK! The world has not ended! The Y2K hoax was created by capitalist corporations to fool people into buying water, extra food, generators and by extremist Christians who actually wanted something bad to happen, such as the fool Gary North. Next time we should stop being so gullible"....Natasha

"I'll bet you feel like an absolute idiot today! You sure did waste your time by making this website! It's just another day here in the world! Have a Happy New Year!!!"...MATTY

First realize that y2k is not over: it has barely begun. Surely it is and will be far less damaging than previously anticipated and this is cause for relief--at least in the short-run. Remember; as mentioned in the last update, the majority of bugs will pile-up, turn up in strange and wonderful ways well into 2000. I also downplayed the significance of the rollover. Will it be enough to significantly and severely disrupt the economy? I no longer believe so; at least not to the degree thought in days gone by. Does this mean the current boom will continue forever and ever? NO! Before we get too giddy: the general, long-range thesis of this site remains certain, intact and trustworthy thus been so since first written, and y2k was merely one variable of concern--humanly alterable and with many unknowns. What is this long-rang thesis? As mentioned in the September 28, 1999 Update (Notice this has nothing to do with y2k):

"...I wish the party could go on forever, but history tells us it must not, and the hangover is upon us. The evidence is overwhelmingly in favor of a catastrophic bust in the months/years ahead. A bust that, like the unprecedented nature of the current boom, will be equally unprecedented in its devastation..."

"...It may surprise some of you to know that I am substantially more optimistic (on the y2k portion) than was the case one year ago. Believe it or not, I tend to (partly) agree with Peter De Jager that we (at least in the U.S., Canada, Britain, Australia) have accomplished enough y2k repairs and are now making contingency plans across the board to avert a total collapse--i.e. The End Of The World As We Know It..."

"...Many seem to think that merely because I bring up the possibility of a societal/civilizational collapse that I'm also predicting such an event. Well I'm not! Nor am I predicting a permament or long-term power-grid shut-down or full-scale nuclear launch on Janurary 1,2000...."

I AM predicting we will have to experience a (several-year) period of severe economic tribulation that will fundamentally alter the world's economic structure from which a new strategic paridagm will emerge: a full, total global war in the next twenty years that will be fought with maximum effort, nuclear weapons will be used, and the America/China/India/Russian "problem" will be resolved...but only after a culimnation of unforseeable events climax into World War Three in which either a new global power for the next long cycle is determined, or re-appointed (that is, the USA)..."

[I do not wish this to occur, but know it must .]

Also said in December 6, 1999 update was:

"Furthermore, we need to get away from the concept that whatever y2k effects that are to happen will happen "on Jan, 1, 2000." Actually, only a small percentage will take place then, and they won't all be of catastrophic nature either. This is not an all or nothing, either/or situation. Most of the failures, in terms of volume will be throughout 2000, showing up in strange and wonderful ways."

"Again, January 1, 2000 is NOT going to be the end of the world, and nor has the author ever implied such a scenario..."

Therefore this site will continue to cover the coming economic catastrophe that will begin this year and last, roughly, until 2004/2005 and will be severe, then the real trouble begins, Ending in 2012. This must take place...regardless of y2k. Again; y2k was simply an additional concern in the big picture. So, on a macro-level all that remains is the blanks to be filled in and the dots connected. We are still in the False Dawn .

Since the above people seem so intent on pointing out how "wrong" I was about y2k here comes a rebuttal:

I do have a decent track record of successes in predicting the economy. Obviously there is no way for you to verify any thing more than a year and a half or two ago, so you will have to take my word for it (then again you don't) ... but yes. In the late 1980's I predicted the long drawn-out recession we experienced in the early 1990's (but I was slightly off in its intensity) . I then predicted in early 1995 that the economy would boom with a climbing stock market. Late 1997 is when I changed my tune and became extremely bearish about the long-term. If you are a long-time reader you will have noticed that I successfully predicted the September/October crash we had late 1998 and that we would hit Dow 10,000. I correctly called the correction of last September/October 1999(but off in intensity--expected a crash)

Predicting good news makes you popular--especially when it comes true! Predicting bad news is a thankless job; Criticized and written off while sounding the alarm, then blamed for it and resented when it comes true or false, as was the case about y2k.

So then why were we all "wrong about y2k?" Why was y2k a virtual non-event? Why was there no pre-y2k crash?

Continue reading. First and foremost let it be known that the great majority of this site was written in a time period when y2k was still not being taken seriously, awareness was low and insufficient remediation efforts were almost universal. That is, early 1998 to early 1999. Save for a few updates in the archive section, this site was essentially not modified at all, including the main homepage; the wording and assessments were nearly the same as first written in spring/summer of 1998 and simply added to. My assessment had changed dramatically since then, but failed to modify the writings to reflect this, as the time required to do so was unavailable.

Hard data on true y2k status and progress was seemingly non-existent at the time and therefore in attempting to form an assessment on the magnitude and outcome of y2k, we had to assume the worst. Not the best. Or, in other words; organizations and entities in question were guilty until proven innocent. We had to use whatever info & evidence came our way and err on the side of caution. This was done not as "prophecy" but for valid risk assessment as y2k was a humanly alterable event.

The Macro-economic Thesis on this site, first written in April 1998, remains fundamentallysound, logical in it's methodology and the conclusions reached therein would surely have come to pass...had y2k come in 1998. However, the variables and inputs to the grand equation have since changed dramatically.

The first portion significantly altered over time was the greatly increased efforts, attention and resources made over the past two years. Y2K budgets rose substantially in the right places reflecting increased concern in corporate and government agencies. The $250 billion thus far spent worldwide (some say $500B) was not mis-spent or wasted on a "hoax." Corporations do not niavely, frantically spend hundreds of millions of dollars of precious money with great urgency on a trivial non-threatening problem. There was a good reason why governments around the world built $60 million command centers (bunkers) and mobilized for martial law.

"...It was not a hoax, and tens of thousands have given everything to fix the problem, many sacrificing their careers, to remediate the antiques, instead of mastering the new technologies. All the thousands of Y2K websites will disappear, and the public will forget those who worked into the night, warning and cajoling businesses and governments to get off their asses and do something...." Alan Simpson

The second factor I erred in not modifying was the relative importance, or triviality of the millennium bug in respect to compliancy or non-compliancy. Surely the work completed thus far has been successful in the vast majority of mission-critical systems. Moreover, a non-compliant apparatus or system was not nearly as serious as previously thought. In fact, most glitches are benign as many computers and chips will function as normal in non-y2k-compliant state; it is the systems that operate heavily with date calculations that require near 100% compliancy in software such as government payroll systems (eg.: Social Security Administration), banking and financial institutions. They correctly perceived it as a threat to survival thence took the proper steps; and were generally successful.

The third variable being the severity of y2k-faulty embedded systems (chips). We never really knew the real percentage at risk or how they would react systemically to the rollover period, and opinions varied widely. In making this assessment I had to again err on the side of caution and presume failures would be significant and /or widespread and assume the worst. It came to pass, obviously, being that power and telecommunications--even water and gas--were scarcely disrupted, that most embedded system problems were either trivial in nature, or repaired and replaced in time, or on a fix-on-failure basis.

Keep in mind: we are still in a bad-y2k-news-blackout where any technological failures will be blamed on anything other than y2k; or not publicized, even when blatantly y2k-related. You can be certain major failures in mainfraimes or other networks are presently occurring. The propaganda is still operating in full-force.

Through late 1998 to late 1999, I and most other y2k gurus had failed to recognize and acknowledge these altered, positive developments; our minds had still been stuck in the old pessimistic battle of awareness. A battle that had already been won, at least in the technological sense. Instead, we continued to fight a losing battle for public perception with the (idealistic) hope of shaking up the unaware public or anyone else who would listen into personal or community preparation. This was a battle bound to be lost, was not part of The Plan and became futile after February 1999; and most failed to recognize it. Though these warnings still did serve a useful purpose in keeping people on their toes. The intentions of the skeptics and alarmists were well placed and productive, our struggle against what we perceived as an overly-optimistic PR campaign failed because, it turned out, this optimism was well-placed, though often for the wrong reasons. Actually, the general public/ Joe six-pack never really did "get it" and still don't. This was the first major issue to be discussed, argued, assessed, debated almost entirely on the newly-emerged medium called the internet.

I believe there are few coincidences in life and worldy affairs. The internet, brimming with knowledge, opinions and information (or misinformation) arrived at precisely the same time knowledge of the severity and threat of y2k became robust. This emergence first came in 1997 when awareness of y2k spread and grew quite rapidly. Previously very few comprehended the extent and potential societal implications and whatever y2k info was available could easy be assimilated by one person.

At that time there were only a few precursor y2k consultants and alarmists pounding the pavement such as Peter de Jager, Russ Kelly, John Westergaard, Jim Lord, Ed Yourdon, Ed Yardeni, Senator Bennett--even John Koskinen (I've wrongly been harsh on him--Sorry John...) among others that accomplished a great deal of awareness (and many made some ca$h for this as well, but that's not the point). This first stage of warning and awareness effectively shocked a multitude into much needed action in the right places and therefore was beneficial:

"...I am not saying that we would have been better off if the existence of the Y2K problem had never been publicized. In that event, the remedial actions that have been expended over the past two years would surely have fallen short.... the desirability of publicizing the existence of a pending significant technical breakdown was never in question--and never should have been..." Alan Greenspan

September, 1999.

Gary fought many battles in dealing with adversaries in his rise to prominence dealing with this highly controversial, complex subject using much wisdom and debate. It is significantly through the writings of his site and sites of similar nature (as this one), persistence and presense that we passed the threshold of the millennium without a hitch. Had these precursor gurus not been present, ignored or not taken seriously (and many have wrongly wished they would have been silenced--or put to death) the world would have experienced, come late 1999 and 2000, major breakdowns; a total panic; possibly societal collapse. This is contrary to the critics' claims that they would cause a panic or Self-fulfilling Prophecy. How so?

Reality Of Prophecy

The most rewarding and satisfactory prophecy, prediction or future assessment one can make is NOT one that comes true, but one that is heeded, taken seriously by the right people in the right places so as to alter the final outcome; one where the prophet is ultimately wrong, through a self-defeating mechanism. With the whole y2k situation this has definitely occurred, though most do not see this as quite obvious, and therefore have been constantly attacking the messenger. Even after y2k for being "wrong."

Historically unprecedented, y2k was a serious, reality-based, impending technological problem with a known date which also involved potentially severe, negative social consequences had insufficient warning been applied.

There are several ways the future can be altered. In respect to y2k, the future time-line of events and social behavior was indeed significantly modified to the positive through active intervention, as witnessed the final outcome.

When, for example, y2k awareness and perception of magnitude was dismally low and still considered a nonsense, fringe subject in early 1998, I Daniel, took it upon myself to repeatedly contact Gary North, Ed Yourdon and Art Bell-- popular night-time radio host with 10 to 20 million open-minded listeners. (No; there were no ulterior motives for doing this--they have never met me) Gary finally made it on for a frightening 4-hour show in May, 1998. The result of this show and other shows following (Ed yourdon finally made it on as well) was profound as it shocked millions into realizing just how big, complex and serious the y2k problem really was; including thousands of influential politicians, corporate managers, authorities, government agencies and the mainstream media.

Through this cause and effect relationship, mass awareness and thenceforth preventative action spread, cascaded and snowballed throughout the English-speaking world; the part of the world most computer dense and therefore in need of such.

While author's site has "only" received 150,000 hits since its inception before 2000, a disproportionate percentage of readers were of authoritative and influential identity including a multitude of senators (Eg.: Robert Bennett & Chris Dodd), congressmen, business leaders, among other y2k gurus and IT managers. So, therefore, my role in creating and accomplishing a self-defeating prophecy has been significant. Most of this was done behind the scenes; witness the Art Bell/Gary North set-up; word spread rapidly. This is not said to be prideful or boastful as it was simply, I know now (since November 1999), part of my Job and Mission (more on that in future article). Nor do I expect any official credit of recognition; it is a thankless Job.

One aspect of y2k taken seriously was social reaction thereof, in particular, the consequence of mass preparation (referred to as "panic" since only a few would ever have been able to prepare as such simultaneously) as well as loss of confidence in the financial markets such as the stock market and (most importantly, the fragility of) the banking system . No one has beat on the drum of the banking issue more than Gary North. In the persuasive axe he ground based on the immorality (of banking), he wished a collapse of this system on the basis according to how it is viewed by the Bible. What he was not privy to was that such pre-ordained, wide-spread discussion and awareness of bank-runs/panic had the opposite effect he had wished for; officials intervened in reponse, through many channels such as the media with all sorts of bump-in-road proclamations (even that turned out to be a pessimistic scenario!) and mind-control and effectively psychologically subdued the public from taking such action. In fact, to further keep the public in greed mode (as opposed to fear mode) the central banks flooded the system with money; currency and fiat, expanding and already over-inflated bubble thereby ensuring a pre-2000 non-crash.

Lesson: The message of the alarmists and activists was heard loud and clear, taken seriously enough, early enough so as to alter the final outcome and actual flow of time, course of history and therefore all of you deserve a great big pat on the back (regardless of motives) No, you won't get credit where credit is due, but you will be rewarded.

We have done most of this sub-consciously and unconsciously; you didn't realize it, but you were part of a grand conspiracy called God's Plan (more on this in future article). While it was true many had financial or religious motives behind such "fear-mongering," the end result was positive; The way it was supposed to occur. There are also other Agents working behind the scenes as well.

The author's motives were never material. Sure there have been ads on this site in the past (any and all ads are now gone: except for the pop-up required by Angelfire) but the ultimate motive, I know now (since November, 1999), was divinely instructed. I have made perhaps $360 from y2k and my site--total (that's it!), yet have spent thousands of hours on it, and with deep contemplation and devotion. In other words, this site has been charity: To aid in understanding; to motivate; to speculate into the future; inform; what is to come.

Almost from day one anyone courageous enough to even suggest y2k may have negative consequences--especially in the midst of a record economic boom where optimism, over-confidence prevailed was continually attacked, assaulted and blamed. A public bad-news blackout was in full-force. Greed--not fear has been the over-riding emotion of the masses and investors. It is thus which contains the ultimate seeds of the up-coming economic catastrophe. As such; the longer and stronger the recent and current boom and bubble continues, the greater the final reckoning.

A Prophet's Error?...Or Victory?

Both. Any y2k assessments or "predictions" were not "from God," but of mortal origin. Essentially a compilation and conglomeration of the minds of other y2k gurus, and humans make mistakes. The major mistake I, Daniel, had made was to disregard the intuition I obviously felt and discerned since early 1999. I truly sensed things had changed for the positive and there really was reason for genuine optimism. Unfortunately the mental portion of the mind remained in this stubborn, old awareness battle of 1998 therefore staying the same path of pessimism and negativity. This was due to the over-whelming evidence that still seemed to suggest a disaster. My instincts, however were screaming otherwise.

This was shown in a dream in full color in July 1999 that I briefly mentioned to my subscribers. To confirm this you may sign up as a subscriber (top of left frame: it's free) in order to view the archives...the July 27 1999 update; #68). I had said:

"...I had a weird dream last night. Let's hope it's prophetic: I dreamt of the Jan 1 y2k rollover. Nothing happened! The lights stayed on and there were no noticeable ill-effects. I felt like a moron for storing food and supplies! Too bad it was just a dream."

It was a dream where I was up in a sky scrapper overlooking a major city shortly before the y2k rollover. In this dream--seen in full clarity--I was full of anxiety in anticipation, looking down at the brightly lit metropolis, waiting for the power to shut down and chaos to break loose. To my shock, in this dream, virtually nothing happened across the country in the following hours! When I awoke I figured it must have been a nightmare; considering the consensus among most y2k gurus that there would almost surely have been major outages and other problems, this seemed impossible. Become a pollyanna based on a dream? Perhaps I should be more keen and put faith in these dreams...It was prophetic; and it was correct!

Shortly after, the author felt in the heart that following and covering it (negative portion of y2k ) was no longer viable; it seemed senseless to continue such y2k doomsaying; hence very few updates on the site since then. Indeed, the author really and truly did become more optimistic, as there was genuine reason for it! Shortly after the September 28, 1999 update, the author thence began a journey of divine revelation when who and what I was was discerned, as briefly mentioned in the last December 6, 1999 update. It is too long and of massive character to be a mere "article" and will become a book, or series of books. subscribers will get a rough copy preview in a few weeks.

Anyways, what else positive came of y2k?

The scare has compelled banks, phone companies, manufacturers to make thier computerized nervous systems vastly more efficient and cheaper to run; a focus, discipline and encouragement to make the changes and upgrades, weeding out aged or superfluous coding and programs they knew had to be made anyways. Companies will recoup any monies spent in the long-term because they now have excellent, modern networks, completely tested and working to perfection. That can only be positive.

We have shook up many people out of thier modern-world slumber, preparing for and thinking about afuture disaster, which will come in very handy when things get rough such as a natural disaster or period of unemployment. People that prepared should NOT feel silly. In fact, they should continue to prepare since the coming years WILL be rough, regardless of y2k.

Governments, agencies and communities now have a cohesive, co-operative infrastructure and system in place to deal with any natural or man-made disaster.

There are many more, of course, but the point is made.

Remember: "It ain't over 'till it's over"

Until next time, take care and God bless... Daniel