Sept 27, 1999 update. (Updated again on Oct 4)
Dear y2k-rs,
Don't worry, the author is not gone just yet. There will be still more site updates to come, but not many...I may be ready to move any day now. Whether I come back and continue depends on whether my new location has internet access. (or whether I move at all)
Quote for the week: (from a letter Gary North received)
"To help the people who live in the Florida hurricane region, the media should tell them all to prepare as they would for a 3-day Y2K problem.That way, they can be on track, hope for the best, and plan for the worst."
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The y2k PR spin continues to roll off the presses, brainwashing the public into complacency and confusing the y2k aware, so here is something to set the mind straight:
(From Lane Core at Westergaard...http://www.wbn.com/y2ktimebomb/Computech/Issues/lcore9938b.htm )
"....The longest running poll of Y2K readiness has very bad news about corporate America. Cap Gemini and Rubin Systems have been surveying 161 large corporations for two years. In August 1998, twelve percent of the companies didn't expect to have their critical systems repaired in time for the Year 2000;1 since then, the percentage has grown steadily: by August 1999, it had reached forty-eight percent not expecting to have their critical systems done in time.2 It should go without saying that, if all is well, those numbers would be going down, not up.And the Y2K Experts Poll3 conducted in June by CIO Magazine4 revealed that 18 percent of the 892 companies surveyed were more than a month behind schedule; more than half admitted they may have malfunctions or failures in critical systems; and, one in four admitted they either are not assessing all their embedded control systems or they are, basically, just going to wait and see what happens....."
It is also interesting to note that Meridian, Idaho, a city if 30,000 15 minutes west of Boise, Idaho, in preparing for y2k disruptions, has a police department that is stockpiling a FULL 90 days of fuel for its patrol cars (20,000 gallons to be exact) and has already stored 90 days of food for its jail inmates. This is addition to the supply of recently acquired riot shields and jackets it added in anticipation to y2k. This is a police department in a safe region, not exactly known for riots. And no, this is not a "rumor," but openly publicized and verifiable information. So much for "A few days of minor inconveniences." as spouted by the John Koskinens of the world. Shouldn't you or your company/agency be doing something similar?
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Greenspan on y2k: DON'T TAKE MONEY OUT OF BANK!... No! Please!
''I'm sure that people will get very wise soon and recognize that the last thing you want to do is to draw inordinate amounts of currency out of the banks.''Alan Greenspan
To see Gary's May 7th, 1999 letter to Alan Greenspan in response to this quote, CLICK HERE .
The guy who really runs the country has finally made a speech on y2k. He has done everything to completely avoid the potential economic effects of y2k in public.
Notice that in almost every optimistic news story on y2k, there is a section that tells you not to take your money out of bank? If you regularly follow y2k you will see 3 or 4 such news stories a week. You will also hear of commercials or movies that even bring up the subject of y2k being cancelled. It's also obvious that former alarmists such as Chris Dodd and Senator Robert Bennett have suddenly become Koskinen clones.
Brainwashing and propaganda in action.
Is this a conspiracy to cover-up between the establishment/status quo: the banking industry, corporate multi-nationals, reporters, editors, government officials, media and their advertisors? Is the sky blue? OF COURSE it is. Indeed, I've seen almost every one of the 25 Rules of Disinformation used by the mainstream...and on an historical, unprecedented scope. You see, they have to do everything in their power to downplay and minimize the truth and magnitude of y2k--the perception,that is--in order to prevent rocking the economic boat---even if it means the death and suffering of millions of Americans after Jan 1,2000. They've seen the polls that say 16% to 30% expect to withdraw some or all their cash and/or stockpile goods before the millennium. They also know it would take less, MUCH less than that percentage to (a) collapse the entire banking system and (b) create severe shortages in an economy operating under such slim just-in-time production and delivery systems where there are no inventories.
In other words, they imply, don't prepare (for more than three days, after which time, I presume, they would have established martial law and community shelters, Red Cross mobilization, etc..), don't stockpile anything, leave your money in your mutual funds, and above all: don't withdraw any currency from the bank! After all, you may get robbed... So it goes with Alan Greenspin...oops..uh,..Greenspan in this speech posted on the Federal Reserve Board's site .
I suggest you read Gary North response as well as Ed Yourdon's (long) response, at this link. Or this cynical summary on Sightings.
By the way; I'm not (nor ever have) recommending people to "withdraw all their cash from the bank." I prefer they get in a position where they won't need cash. I.E. having all the goods and necessities already stored up. At the same time, though, I do suggest having a month or so cash on hand to meet unexpected purchases. Frankly I'm into gold and silver coins as a long term storage of wealth. After all, who knows what will be used as money in a (total) breakdown? It would most likely be our current physical currency, at least for a while.. In either case, remember the line in the movie: "The Trigger Effect" in the supermarket when the electricity went down:
Our computers are down. Cash only, small bills please."
Remember: You can't eat cash.
You are on your own, folks. Don't expect these elitist Bozos to take concern for your company, you and your family. In such corrupt, dark times as these, our "leaders" are out of touch...Though most will rhetoricize otherwise, they really don't care about you and I. We are just a bunch of unintelligible lemmings, as far as they are concerned. The backlash against their position and action will be extreme should the outcome be any worse than this official position, with extraordinary political ramifications come the 2000 elections.
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The U.S. economy is still very strong and the market averages were (recently) at new highs. The reality was (is) that about 80% of stocks are nowhere near new highs. The breadth of the gains of 1999 have been extremely narrow, mostly in a handful of technology and blue chip stocks.
As I write this update, theDow is somewhere below 10,300 after major declines over the past week--10% from peak--making it an official correction. At the risk of making another timing call error as I did on August 11, I will again make the "official" call that the Great Millennial Bear Market as NOW underway--this I'm certain. We have entered the danger period. That is, roughly 55 to 60 days after the (late Aug.) peak: from now to the end of October. As in all previous forecasts made on this site for the nine months or so, I am predicting a severe 30% to 50% crash (peak to trough) between now and early November. The next day or two after The Crash might be a good day for all you opportunists to jump back in, as there will be a sucker's rally lasting a couple weeks or so. On the other hand, there may not be a panic crash at all. It may simply continue an agonizing slide where, by year's end, it should lose at least 30% from the Aug. peak. It's all down hill from there.
I wish the party could go on forever, but history tells us it must not, and the hangover is upon us. The evidence is overwhelmingly in favor of a catastrophic bust in the months/years ahead. A bust that, like the unprecedented nature of the current boom, will be equally unprecedented in its devastation. I've tried to be my own best critic (a devil's advocate, if you will) and form a best-case scenario. The absolute, most positively optimistic outcome I can conjure up after spending and researching thousands of hours over the past two years, is a recession with a drop of 5 to 7% (real) GDP, deflation rate of 4% to 8%, and an unemployment rate of around 9% to 12%.
This is best case.
A medium/worst case is a collapse of more than half of the nation's banks, (real) GDP drop of 25-30%, tremendous deflation, and an unemployment rate of 25%+.
It may surprise some of you to know that I am substantially more optimistic (at least on the y2k portion) than was the case one year ago. Believe it or not, I tend to (partly) agree with Peter De Jager that we (at least in the U.S., Canada, Britain, Australia) have accomplished enough y2k repairs and are now making contingency plans across the board to avert a total collapse--i.e. The End Of The World As We Know It. However, it is unrealistic to become so optimistic (as many have in the past months) to think disruptions will be so small as to amount to an insignificant bump-in-a-road. Indeed, a review of the available facts, evidence still strongly point to catastrophic-- albeit precisely unpredictable--infrastructure failures and severe global economic ramifications.
Many seem to think that merely because I bring up the possibility of a societal/civilizational collapse that I'm also predicting such an event. Well I'm not! Nor am I predicting a permament or long-term power-grid shut-down or full-scale nuclear launch on Janurary 1,2000. This places me into the "fringe" catagory, but I AM predicting we will have to experience a period severe economic tribulation that will fundamentally alter the world's economic structure from which a new strategic paridagm will emerge: a full, total global war in the next twenty years that will be fought with maximum effort, where nuclear weapons will be used, and the America/China/India/Russian "problem" will be resolved...but only after a culimnation of unforseeable events climax into World War Three in which either a new global power for the next long cycle is determined, or re-appointed (that is, the USA).
This is how we can tell we are still in the Third Turning: The Kosovo conflict, instead of flaring up into a catalyst initiating a global crisis, which would be the case in a Fourth Turning (though it came close to doing so), merely fizzled out. It did, however, as I've hypothesized in : Global Realignment: Origins of The Third World War, determine who the major players will be, and how y2k could affect the evolution of events.
Now, a reasonable economic scenario for the next few years--which must take into account systemic y2k failures and cascading bankruptcies, bank runs, bursting stock bubble (imminent), default on mass debt levels, collapse of world trade and the international division of labor, price deflation, as well as the economic implications of a y2k-induced martial law situation, indicate something between the above scenarios--if we are lucky.
Do not take this as a sign to stop stockpiling food or preparing. You will still need it. Even if direct disruptions last "only" a few weeks, having a years worth of food and other barterable items makes sense since the majority will be unprepared. (Share and share alike--but only at a price, of course). Besides, what if you become unemployed six months into the new millennium, regardless of how secure you think your job may be at present? This makes excellent unemployment insurance as far as I'm concerned.
Which brings me to an important point...Very few are willing or capable of selling everything, buying a farm with an array of solar panels, five years worth of food, etc. If you are like most, you are entrenched in the city with a mortage, have a job that promises a future pension, or have kids enrolled in school and simply don't find it practical to go "all out" on preparations. Don't worry, there are alternatives in preparing for The Worst. Be resourceful and creative! There's no need to be trapped in the city after 2000 if a total collapse comes to pass. It's not too difficult or expensive, but it takes a change of mindset and limiting emotional barriers. You can stay in your present home/situation as long as possible--and hope for the best, but also have a back-up plan. For example, buy an old full-size van or suburban vehicle (or a travel-trailer and have it ready to be hitched to your present vehicle) and stuff it with storable food and other pertinent usable/valuble articles, and when/if the time and circumstances dictate, you can head for a safer location an hour or so out of town. Obviously you should plan and make arrangements with someone or have land ready to live on (leased, bought, borrowed, bartered--whatever you can conjure up) This will relieve any y2k anxiety knowing there is something to fall back on lest the world goes kaput.
A hint on food storage: Don't skimp on 'comfort foods' and condiments such as chocolate, candies, tea/coffee, spices, pasta sauces, etc. Sure you can technically survive on a years supply of pure rice and beans, but is this realistic? Just try such a diet...for EVEN ONE DAY and then tell me you are/will subsist on such an unbelievably bland source of nutrition? Trust me on this one: it's better to have only three months worth of delicious (normal) food such as canned meats, stew, veggies etc., rather than a 12 month supply of rice/beans/flour. By the way, in a desperate crisis situation, cigarettes are more valuable than food and I encourage smokers an non-smokers alike to stock up on tobacco--if any thing, for barter. (I smoke--I know!)
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The Senate y2k committee issued its 100-day progress report on y2k and can be read at: http://www.senate.gov/~y2k/documents/100dayrpt/exec_sum_100days.pdf . It is a mixture of pollyannism ALONG with disturbing information and can convince the reader to be confused; Denialists will ignore the bad news offered therein and come to the conclusion that everything is peachy-keen, while the realistic skeptics (such as I) actually see that there is genuine bad news here, and is what we should be focusing on if a proper risk assessment is to be made. As y2knewswire explains : the Washington Post story covering the report completely ignores ALL the negative portions , and exaggerates all the good news--which is based on self-reported "data." This is why we cannot trust the mainstream media or government to get accurate info on y2k...stick to the internet alternatives!
To see Mike Adam's analysis of the report, Click Here . To see Gary North's summary of the summary, Click Here .
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Check out Jim Lord's website and check out what's new. He has received almost 10 million hits since he first put the site up a month ago!!!!
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Since I can no longer cover y2k or the coming economic catastrophe as much, keep yourself out of denial and read Gary North's daily updates as well as y2knewswire.com. Everyday!
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