Back in March of 1998 when I began writing, this site was not nearly as comprehensive as it is now. It was a simple and extreme sounding one page that was easily brushed off. After almost daily work, programming, it became one of the top y2k sites on the net. It was rated by Westergaard as a four-star site and has been awarded "site of the month" at a few other sites. I have written a few articles for the Gold-Eagle web magazine which can be found here , and plan to be a regular contributor.
The goal is to examine the evidence to determine the nature and extent of a short-term economic social disaster and promote awareness/preparedness. Its purpose is several-fold:
This site began as a curious interest, then turned into a full-blown concern to which I've been compelled to alter my own life's plans and expectations ( I Moved To Boise, Idaho--Safe Haven ). It is no exaggeration to say what follows could be one of the more significant events in history.
I am considered a "doomsayer" because what I've intuitively sensed what is to come: a societal disaster in the months/years ahead, so I am saying we're doomed. 'Denialists' and pollyannas generally aren't suited to covering such subject matter of such negative proportions, so admittedly I am somewhat fatalistic in the pessimistic long-term world view given, and this is probably what it takes to write of a subject with such potentially dire consequences. You must put up with a lot of criticism and therefore have to have thick skin to write about such, particularly about y2k before it happened. And dealing with it afterwards.
When I say something "will" happen (as opposed to "may"), it is because of a strong conviction based on extensive analysis that I feel is inevitable. I am in human form and therefore make mistakes. These "predictions" are by no means "guaranteed" to happen, and I encourage readers think for themselves.
However, regardless of the accuracy or inaccuracy of these or in the past, I do make claim as a prophet from God on certain aspects. To see what I mean, click here:
Power by God; Author's Identity Revealed I consider myself a realist and try to give a balanced, logical view based on accepted evidence and documentation, within context. There are no hidden agendas or ulterior motives and not afraid of delving into the politically incorrect. This site is really a conglomeration of information mixed with my own twist on the situation, and the result of countless hours of research and contemplation (at least 3000hrs).
It's about many cycles and forces which show an economic collapse is imminent, and has already begun with 40% of the world's economy collapsing or in spiraling recession, and would have occurred regardless of y2k. (don't worry, the recent recovery from the global crisis of 1997 and 1998 is a temporary aberration; it will continue once again very soon).
It is about how all these forces interact and compound with one another and fits into larger historical cycles. For example, the Kondratieff wave shows we are near the bottom trough when the current credit bubble is due to burst (defaulted on--conceivably even the U.S. government).
Some theories show that 30-40 years after a technology is widely introduced, a massive depression occurs. Since computers began entering the mainstream 35 -40 years ago, wham! ... Year 2000. The same was true with automobiles (1930's depression), and railroads (1870's depression) . But this time it is direct failures of a technology instead of simple over-investment/speculation. The stock market is also due for a replay of the 1929 bear market in the next 12 months; see stock market forecast.
You may notice that this site resembles Gary North's. Is this because I have borrowed from his site? Yes. Why? Because it is an essential encyclopedia on y2k. Have he and other y2k borrowed from my site? Sure, and frequently...most of the y2k Gurus (including Bob Bennett, Ed yardeni, Ed Yourdon--among many others) have done so to one degree or another. There's nothing wrong with this either...free exchange of ideas permited and encouraged public discussion which was only beneficial. Its just that not everyone has heard of this site.
In a sense, you could consider a modified and concentrated version of all the best info.
You may wonder what my credentials are. I would like to tell everybody. I would prefer to stay fairly anonymous for now, but Daniel is my real name. However, I will tell you this: I have an I.Q. of more than 148 and can grasp complex subjects, and have a keen interest in world issues and economics.
I do have a decent track record of successes in predicting the economy. Obviously there is no way for you to verify any thing more than a year and a half or two ago, so you will have to take my word for it (then again you don't) ... but yes. In the late 1980's I predicted the long drawn-out recession we experienced in the early 1990's (but I was slightly off in its intensity) . I then predicted in early 1995 that the economy would boom with a climbing stock market. Late 1997 is when I changed my tune and became extremely bearish. If you are a long-time reader you will have noticed that I successfully predicted the September/October crash we had late 1998 and successfully predicted Dow 10,000. I correctly called the correction of last September/October 1999(but off in intensity--expected a crash)
Predicting good news makes you popular--especially when it comes true! Predicting bad news is a thankless job; Criticized and written off while sounding the alarm, then blamed for it and resented when it comes true or false, as was the case about y2k. So then why were we all "wrong about y2k?" Why was y2k a virtual non-event?
See Post-Y2K Mea-Culpa: Why was Y2K a Non-event?
Also a must read is the Fourth Turning web site and book by Howe & Strauss. Its premise is of a crisis which occurs every fourth generation and chillingly predicts an era of total war, depression and crisis lasting between the present and 2020. In conjunction with other historical and socio-economic studies, I believe our current form of capitalism itself and the global power structure is about to undergo a radical transformation as the current system implodes under its own weight and instability.
It is amazing how some love to shoot the messenger rather than hear the message or see the evidence. The skeptics really have no choice, so they attack the motives or the person. It's disheartening, as I'd be thrilled to be wrong on this issue.
I try my best too be a good speller as I now it is the key to good writing style and reeder acceptance. I recieved good grades in scholl and know how to make a good presentation but cant seem to get it rite. Woe is me for shoddy matarial not worth reeding! See how the mistakes aer seriously detracting from the potential mesage--even if important? Maybee I shud be more careful or use a spel-cheker. This is a must for anyone to take yor're material seriously. Or perhaps I should re-enroll in gramar scool! Elementary deja voo. (LOL!)
It must also be clarified; this is not a religious site. While it may give that impression, I actually don't even have a religion; here's why: had an NDE. The " Angelfire" in the URL just happens to be the name of my web server. If you want a free web page, then give them a visit. The gloomy gray background is depressing, but so is y2k. I also spend many hours a week on this site, not profiting from it, selling anything nor have any other ulterior motives or "agendas" (i.e. "wanting it to happen"). I simply enjoy studying and consider this an intellectual hobby. ( In reality I've earned close to nothing for the work put in. Sure there have been ads on this site, but you'd be surprised to know how little it pays; for all the work put in since march 1998 I've made a whopping $350...that's it! Perhaps enough to cover internet expenses.
Nobody likes to be told they will lose everything and their job from something they can't control in the next few years, yet millions will. Material on this site is rather intense and blunt and many readers will likely be shocked into a state of denial. Indeed, many go no farther than than the title or first page! Keep in mind that just because you disagree with some details or conclusions, you need not reject the whole. Look at it this way; even if HALF of what this site predicts comes true, isn't that convincingly enough to be alarmed?
"This can't be happening!"
"Well, it just can't!"
Yes, but why??
"Uh... I don't want it to"
What am I expecting? At least a major global depression. Unfortunately, in my opinion, the evidence increasingly points a world-wide economic collapse resulting in an alteration of our economic system.
Here are my new Jan 2000 subjective "odds" for what is coming. This is not a joke:
I wish the party could go on forever, but history tells us it must not, and the hangover is upon us. The evidence is overwhelmingly in favor of a catastrophic bust in the months/years ahead. A bust that, like the unprecedented nature of the current boom, will be equally unprecedented in its devastation. I've tried to be my own best critic (a devil's advocate, if you will) and form a best-case scenario. The absolute, most positively optimistic outcome I can conjure up after spending and researching thousands of hours over the past two years, is a recession with a drop of 5 to 7% (real) GDP, deflation rate of 4% to 8%, and an unemployment rate of around 9% to 12%.
This is best case.
A medium/worst case is a collapse of more than half of the nation's banks, (real) GDP drop of 25-30%, tremendous deflation, and an unemployment rate of 25%+, stock decline of 80%+.
Many seem to think that merely because I bring up the possibility of a societal/civilizational collapse that I'm also predicting such an event. Well I'm not!
It would be nice if we could just go through a depression then happily recover, but such serious economic troubles rarely occur in a vacuum with the attendant political strife. This will be a world-wide problem, so expect massive social and political convulsion with whole-scale revolution and wars in the coming years.
This places me into the "fringe" catagory, but I AM predicting with full confidence and conviction we will have to experience a period severe economic tribulation that will fundamentally alter the world's economic structure from which a new strategic paridagm will emerge: a full, total global war in the next twenty years that will be fought with maximum effort, where nuclear weapons will be used, and the America/China/India/Russian "problem" will be resolved...but only after a culimnation of unforseeable events climax into World War Three in which either a new global power for the next long cycle is determined, or re-appointed (that is, the USA).
I also know what comes after...and it is good. So there is hope!
Amazingly I rarely receive any negative e-mail feed-back from readers...the vast majority is very positive. Which could be indicative of the quality of this site ( must..deflate..ego! ).
Here are some typical responses received, with a negative one first:
1.On the net (to this date) there are over a dozen, inexpensive or free, programs geared to stopping the bug. The only problem is letting enough of the public know this. When I bought my computer 5 years ago it only counted to 1999. Now, after downloading a simple program, my computer goes to 2099. 2.It can be temporarily avoided in the home. (without a download) If you're not running any accounting programs, the answer is as simple as setting your clocks back a couple of years I hope I made my point. The worlds is not DOOMED to a market crash. In fact the world can be save IF the people are well informed and willing to take individual action. some thing you might be interested in (year 200 fixing programs): 1.http://www.download.com/PC/Result/TitleDetail/0,4,0-56791,1000.html?st.dl.sub78.list.tdtl 2.http://www.download.com/PC/Result/TitleDetail/0,4,0-56790,1000.html?st.dl.sub78.list.tdtl 3.http://www.download.com/PC/Result/TitleDetail/0,4,0-51710,1000.html?st.dl.sub78.list.tdtl I hope you find this info useful I went out of my way to write this. sincerely, Andrew Curioso president of http://gamerealm.8m.com
[ Author's note: Can you see the flaws in this man's arguments? He's focusing on stand-alone home PC's (and only the software part) which are not the main fundamental problems about Y2K. Mainfraimes and embedded systems and networked PC's are the significant issues, and their is no "quick-fix" for them. He makes it sound so easy and free. I suppose the IRS, GM and Citigroup bank must have been a bunch of morons for spending almost a billion dollars each for their y2k remediation efforts? I also wonder why the old Gartner Group estimate for repairing y2k world-wide went up from $300-600 billion and is now $858 billion ? (CapGemini) ]
You put together an EXCELLENT Web Site. It is well organized, thorough, well documented (references), and visually appealing. Thank you for all your hard work. Tim V.
I must say, before visiting this site tonight, I had but a mere idea of how substantial this y2k issue really is. Thank you for opening my eyes to the vast complexity of this problem.
I'm taking this seriously! I have 2 kids and if there is even a possibility of losing power, food sources and such, my family will be ready. Thanks for all the great info and keep up the good work!!! Trekker.
Your website it GREAT!!! Two thumbs up!
I wanted to express my support because I find your site tremendously useful. I have read it several times and it has held my mind straight in the face of the generalized denial around me. I find it very hard to live like a schizophrenic, working as a management consultant to Fortune 50 corporations during the day and being a y2k survivalist at night. After several attempts at communicating my concerns to people I began to be scorned and ostracized, so I decided to keep quiet. I don't want to lose my job before it is unavoidable. But the cost of living a dual life is high. I can't believe that people are unwilling to "buy y2k insurance" but I can't deny the facts. The blindness is overwhelming.
How do you manage to keep your energy? Given your outspoken nature and the gravity of your beliefs I imagine you must have been scorned and attacked rather harshly. In any case, I wanted to tell you that I find your hypotheses sufficiently likely to demand preparation. I still believe that there is some hope to avoid the worse disaster (a 10 in the Richter scale) but I'm not counting on hope. The scary thing, however, is that the future mayhem will be directly proportional to the present denial. With the current attitude I observe in my environment I can't avoid the unhappy conclusion that we might well face the end of the world as we know it.
Whatever happens I want to take responsibility for my life. So regardless of the accuracy of your predictions I find great value in them as a psychological anchor. I thank you for the information and I hope that our fears do not materialize. Whether they do or they don't is irrelevant. I don't play Russian roulette with one bullet in 10 chambers and my prior probabilities of collapse are certainly above 10%.
Keep up the good work. In times of darkness and blindness, it is people like you that reconcile me with the idea that the infinite spirit manifests through human beings.
Thanks for all the info you shared so generously. I have been a professor at MIT's Sloan School of Management and see a lot of similarities between your thinking and the field of System Dynamics (Jay Forrester, Peter Senge, John Sterman). Also, my PhD is in Economics (Berkeley), so I feel backed by 20 years of study and teaching in saying that you have done a SUPERB job in organizing all the info to create a coherent picture.
I also believe that life will go on, although perhaps with a few "bumps" in the following months. I'll be anxious to hear from you in the next year.
In Truth and Freedom,
My name is Alan Carrico and I found your website back in September '98 and I want to thank you for your insightful and informative perspective on Y2K. I too am a very logical, anti-pc realist that like it between the eyes. I dont go for glamour or hype and I only want the bottom line, which I feel is the only thing that matters. Your site gives me the facts the way I like it.
I was first alerted about y2k back in early August '98 and was instantly intrigued. I too fell into denial some weeks later because I was starting to feel embarrassed by making preparations, ie. stockpiling food, buying tools, a generator and other things. But I've come back into reality and am now preparing once again.
The other thing your site provides is insights on some other things that I have been aware of for some time. Especially the fragility of our fractional banking system, the Kondratieff Wave, the coming Solar storm, economic trends in the east, the rise of the EU, the rise of China, volitality in the middle east, nuclear proliferation worldwide and many other things. When we look at the strategic trends around the world, only then it is clear that something is going to break. Y2K may just be the straw the broke man's arrogant back.
I have many more things to say, but I dont want to take any more of your time. I just wanted to say thank you for helping me feel I'm not alone in this world full of arrogance and ignorance.
God Bless, Alan Carrico <><
This site is getting too cumbersome to constantly check for dead links. If you find one please let me know.
P.S. Thanks to all that have given support, and thanks to the web sites that contain the evidence, material and viewpoints that enabled me to write this site!
None of this site is copyrighted and I give permission to reproduce any material as long as it's unedited and in its original format, credit is given to this site, and not commercially exploited (not that I'm anti-profit :-).
Since July 4,1998 HOME PAGE: Year 2000 Economics