More Mega Quotes VI!

We don't have any problems yet.... We'll deal with the problem in the year 2000. - Vladislav Petrov [Russian Atomic Energy Ministry spokesman]

I said, "Mr. Vice President, you'd be perfect for it" [Y2K]. He said he didn't have time for it. - Connie Morella (R-Md.)

If today were December 31, 1999, and our systems were in the current state they are in today, tomorrow our economy worldwide would stop. It wouldn't grind to a halt. It would snap to a halt. You would not have a dial tone tomorrow if tomorrow were January 1st, year 2000. You would not have air travel. You would not have Federal Express. You would not have the Postal Service. You would not have water. You would not have power. Because the systems are broken. I know you don't like hearing it. I know it is classed as hype and exaggeration. The problem is: it happens to be a fact which you yourself can verify. - Peter de Jager [June 2, 1998]

In my own view, it [Y2K] is a particularly large global disaster in the making. I am convinced the problem is vastly underappreciated. - Jerry Jasinowsky [National Association of Manufacturers president]

I think there will be substantial dislocations in the U.S. - John Westergaard [president, Westergaard Year 2000]

Capers Jones' estimates of Y2K remediation efforts 
(as of June 1998) of U.S. sectors:

                     % On Time       % Lagging

Urban Governments        10               90
Water Departments        20               80
Hospitals/Health Care    20               80
Retail Stores            20               80
State Governments        30               70
Electric Power           30               70
Federal government       30               70
Manufacturing            35               65
Telephone Companies      65               35
Airlines                 60               40
Insurance                75               25
Banks                    80               20
Overall in the US        40               60

A week ago Thursday the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, Alan Greenspan, was honored as the recipient of the "Business Man of the Year Award" by the Washington chapter of the Harvard Business School Club. Mr. Greenspan did not make a statement, but did entertain questions from the (small) audience. The second question concerned Y2K, presumably by an investment broker. It ran like this: "My clients are asking me what the impact of Y2K on our economy will be, and what steps they should take to mitigate the effect".... Mr. Greenspan proceeded to spend nearly 10 minutes explaining how and why he himself (mea culpa), and others, coded years in 2 digits in the early days in the 60s when machines had only 16k bytes, etc. etc. etc. He TOTALLY evaded the question, and that was the frightening part: (1) He is undoubtedly a very astute and smart man; (2) He knows the Y2K problem and understands it fully; (3) He is, after all, a very successful and knowledgeable economist, and (4) He would not express his views on the subject. Unquestionably, he is afraid to tell the public the truth. That is reason enough for me and you to start a run on the banks, and quit the stock market. Ed Yardeni, you are pedaling with too soft a shoe... Ed Yourdon, wait for me in New Mexico. I'll be your neighbor... - Dan Gielan [Chief Technical Officer, VAST Corporation]

The other thing I know a great deal about is institutional investors. I talk to them all the time. I started to research and think about this problem and put out a recession alarm last summer, and I -- you know, I was naive, I guess. When I first wrote about it I thought I was going to get some real -- some response from the institutional client base -- you know, Fidelity, Trust Company of the West, T. Rowe Price -- all of these institutions that I talk to constantly. Nothing. Nothing. Then, about two, three months ago, a lot of these institutions started calling me up and said, "You know, we generally like most of your work, but this Y2K stuff, we've been just chucking it out.... Would you do us a favor and send us everything you've written on the subject? And come in and tell us why this is a big deal." So I'll tell you this: institutional money managers are starting to want to understand the problem, and a few of them are starting to get alarmed, and a few of them are starting to ask me what they should do. Do they hedge themselves? When do they become more defensive? When do I think the market is going to take this problem more seriously? Well, they are the markets. I tell them, "Listen to yourself. You make the markets. You guys are the major institutions. If you're starting to get alarmed about it, you know the market is going to figure this out fairly shortly." So between Asia and the year 2000 problem, we've got a real problem up ahead here. - Ed Yardeni [June 2, 1998]

....I sat next to one of the top officials at the Federal Reserve who told me that it was his idea to invite me [to Basel] because he had seen me scare the living daylights out of the securities industry at a convention in New York in February, and he wanted me to do to the central bankers what I had done in New York in February. And then he said to me, "But tell me the truth. Aren't you just exaggerating a little bit just to get people to take this more seriously and maybe to get some visibility for yourself?" And I said to him, "I don't need this kind of visibility. I was perfectly happy being an optimist." And then I said to him -- looked him straight in the eyes and I said, "I'm holding back." - Ed Yardeni [June 2, 1998]

I've given many presentations with Ed [Yardeni].... we have an investment model that is focused solely on [Y2K] compliance. We don't read Wall Street research anymore. It's meaningless. And until you speak to mission-critical systems, you are not going to understand the value of an organization, whether it be the government, an institution, or your own shareholders.... in all our research as we've gone through the electricity, telecom, shipping, and government, [it shows] that we are going to see system failures increase substantially in the second half of this year to the point when we get to 1/1/99 it will be very visible. The federal government right now is crippled. We need to accept that fact and move into a period of contingency planning.... We believe that you're going to have a recession in the second half of 1999.... The second part is foreign trade. We've done research on that, and unfortunately, technology supports foreign trade in a very dramatic way -- both mission critical and non-mission critical.... it will have a very significant impact. - Dennis Graebel

To ask an IT department who would have difficulty delivering Year 2000 compliancy by January the 1st, Year 2000 also -- not just to change the currency, but to basically re-engineer the entire way in which you handle finances in your corporation at the same time is a prescription -- is Kevorkian in the room? -- It is a prescription for self-imposed suicide. Now, I don't know if we can make it any plainer. They will get Euro done. There is no doubt in my mind they will do Euro first. And then they will blame the IT departments for not delivering Year 2000 on time as they fail into oblivion. It is the act of people who say that we understand Year 2000, but don't touch the Euro. In other words, we understand that if we don't fix this [Y2K], we will fail. But we can't interfere with the Euro. - Peter de Jager [June 2, 1998]

We just don't know the status of the federal government.... Our entire way of life is at risk, we are so dependent on digital equipment. We won't be able to conduct national security, collect taxes, distribute benefits, manufacture products, or manage commerce. - Rona Stillman [chief scientist for the General Accounting Office]

We've worked hard to be ready. I set a government-wide goal of full compliance by March of 1999.... The American people have a right to expect uninterrupted service from government, and I expect them to deliver.... No one will ever find every embedded microchip, every line of code that needs to be rewritten. But if companies, agencies and organizations are ready, if they understand the threat and have backup plans, then we will meet this challenge. ....if we act properly, we won't look back on this as a headache, sort of the last failed challenge of the 20th century. It will be the first challenge of the 21st century successfully met. That is the American way, and together we can do it. - Bill Clinton [July 14, 1998]

No one will remember in March [1999] what Clinton said today. When it is brought up that they still are light-years behind in March, more excuses will gush forth. They will again hold up the SSA and forget about all the failing agencies. Clinton gave his speech. Now, tell me. What was different one minute later? Nothing. I am going to save this little snippet for March of next year, when everyone else has forgotten. Full compliance he promised. Not partial. Full. - Paul Milne

As of January 31, we completed the second, or assessment, phase.... The FAA is now in the midst of the third, or renovation, phase.... Of the FAA's 430 mission-critical systems, 141 are already Y2K-compliant. We are renovating 163 systems, replacing or retiring 70, and determining the best strategy to handle eleven systems. This work will be completed by September 30 of this year.... Validation will be completed by March 31, 1999.... Our implementation deadline is June 30, 1999. This is the date by which all FAA systems will be certified and operational as Y2K-compliant. The FAA is looking to move the March 31 validation and June 30, 1999 implementation deadlines up.... The cost estimate for the entire FAA Y2K effort is $191.7 million. Not factored into this cost estimate are the travel expenses for the trip Ray Long and I plan to take on the evening of December 31, 1999. To celebrate New Year's Eve, we will board a plane shortly before midnight ­ Greenwich Mean Time ­ and fly west through all four continental time zones to demonstrate our confidence to the flying public that the nation's airspace system is safe. Ray says he expects this to be an utterly normal ­ but deeply satisfying ­ trip. - Jane F. Garvey [Administrator, Federal Aviation Administration]

....regarding a Year 2000 review on the 3083 hardware and microcode for the FAA HOST contract.... Analysis of 3083 microcode involves reviewing hundreds of thousands of lines of microcode written in several different protocols. This code was written in the 1970s to support an architecture that has changed dramatically over the ensuing years and new processor generations. IBM does not have the skills employed today that understand the microcode implemented in the 3083 well enough to conduct an appropriate Year 2000 assessment. In addition, the tools required to properly analyze the microcode do not exist.... IBM believes it is imperative that the FAA replace this equipment prior to the Year 2000. - Kenneth R. Thornton [IBM letter to Lockheed Martin, October 2, 1997. Nick's note: The FAA says it hired two retired programmers to examine the 3083 microcode, and they found that the 3083 counts years from 1 to 32, with 1975 = year 1. Thus the 3083 hardware should, in theory, work correctly until 2007, if the FAA can continue to find spare parts. I, personally, would feel much happier if the FAA took one of these 3083s "off-line" and advanced the clock on it to test it, just to be sure.]

There will be maybe an 80-percent reduction in air traffic at some time.... I'm going to recommend to the Senate that an emergency hospital financing corporation be established to provide emergency financing to hospitals because the whole flow of Medicare reimbursement will come to a halt. - John Westergaard [president, Westergaard Year 2000]

Let me break it down as my current best guess.... I believe the power grid will work. I expect we will have brownouts and regional blackouts, and in some areas of the country there will be power failures. But the power grid as a whole will not go down.... I believe the financial system will work.... I wouldn't want to trade stocks on the Nikkei in Tokyo, but I think the security system will probably work. I think the banking system will work. I think there are individual banks that will probably go bankrupt.... I think water will be available in most municipalities, but I am convinced there are some where the water system will break down.... I am very concerned about the health care system. There are health care entities that may very well go bankrupt because they cannot get reimbursement from Medicare and Medicaid.... There are medical machines that will fail in ICU units. There are hospitals that are far enough away from other hospitals that they have no backup, and if they have a failure in some of their machines or in some of their supplies, there will be people who will be affected by that in terms of patient care.... I'm concerned about counties. What's going to happen to the social fabric in this country if a county in a large, populous area cannot deliver welfare checks? What kind of riots might occur? ....Do I think the Defense Department will fall apart? No. But I am glad we're not engaged in a major war when this hits, because the Defense Department will have serious challenges.... The phone system, I think, will work.... I think the air traffic control system will work, but I expect we will probably be rationing flights. I don't think it will work at the same level that it currently is.... - Robert Bennett (R-Utah) [before the National Press Club, July 15, 1998]

IRS; serious, serious troubles at IRS. - Robert Bennett (R-Utah) [same speech] >{? When I talk to government programmers, they all believe - and it's pretty much unanimous - that they're not going to make it. - Michael P. Harden [president and CEO of Century Technology Services, Inc.]

My wife works for Social Services. Anyone supporting a foster child gets a check from the state. Recently all people with children that turned 18 in Y2k did not receive their checks from the state. It was identified as a Y2K problem. No one thought about this ahead of time. - Dennis Good

Went to my county business office today [July 6] to look up my tax records. Computers were down and wouldn't be back up for a couple of days. I was told to come back then. Went over to another county office, and was told that their computers weren't operating! So I guess I can go build that extra building on my lot and not have to take out a permit or pay taxes on it! GOOOOODY! I asked if it was a Y2K problem and the clerk admitted it! - Walter Womack

I work in the IT industry as an analyst/designer and project manager. I recently left a contract for the third largest electric cooperative in the United States - it covers a huge part of the state of Texas. In February of this year the head of IT for this entire utility came to me and asked "what's this Y2K thing?" I am fairly certain that the application (their billing system) is compliant because of the Oracle tools they used. But I can't be sure because the project was in chaos before I came on board - the lead architect was hiding his code, etc., inadequate testing for any kind of compliance was done... My point is this. This electricity co-op doesn't have a clue. They are sitting somewhere in the '50s in terms of management awareness and style... they think because their billing system is in Oracle - that that is all they have to worry about. They haven't given a thought to the other software systems that they have developed to handle their business over the years in Userbase or other such languages.... (By the way, I have purchased several acres of remote land and am developing it. I do NOT plan on being in this area on 1/1/00...) - Chana Campos

A friend of mine who works in one of the nuke plants tells me nothing critical is machine-controlled and everything can be handled manually. He insists there will be no problems of any magnitude in the plants he's familiar with. He should know, and he wouldn't beat around the bush if there were problems he knew about. - Lee P. Lapin

The Year 2000 issue is possibly the most critical problem we have ever faced at AT&T.... I'm pleased to report that - through May of this year -- we have assessed 91% of our application lines of code, repaired 72% of those that needed modification, and application-certified over 40%.... AT&T is on target to complete network element certification by year-end 1998, with full deployment no later than June 1999. - John Pasqua [Program Management Vice President of the AT&T Year 2000 initiative]

I have already talked to people at at least one major bank that swore up and down that they were compliant already, and then they admitted that their customer service people lied to me. They even volunteered to put their compliance in writing. And yet they were not compliant when push came to shove. They lied. - Paul Milne

I work in the IS department of a Fortune 500 company which has made great strides in the area of Year 2000 remediation. I'm willing to bet that all our competitors are doing the same thing. There is only one word for companies that aren't - LOSER. I do have concerns in certain areas, especially government. They do not operate by the profit motive. The only way they could lose is by losing taxpayer dollars. They've got nothing to lose by failing to issue checks. What are all the welfare recipients going to do if they don't get paid - go on strike? Hunger strike, maybe. If you receive a check from a government agency, be concerned. Otherwise, I wouldn't worry too much. - Amy Leone

Today, Asia is toast. In the year 2000, Asia will be burnt toast. In Asia, they have a year 1998 problem. Most companies have a 90-day business plan of how they're going to stay in business for the next 90 days. They are doing this month by month over in Asia. They have totally been distracted and resourced away from dealing with the year 2000 problem. - Ed Yardeni [June 2, 1998]

I think the year-2000 fix will be costly, but year-2000 glitches will not take the global economy down.... There is not one shred of evidence that suggests that year-2000 compliance or non-compliance will have any effect on the U.S. business cycle. - Steve Roach [chief economist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter]

I.... have come to the conclusion that, Y2K faddists to the contrary, this thing won't seriously hurt the stock market or cause you any other major inconvenience.... Y2K is heavily covered [by the media]. Even the SEC has pronounced its fear of Y2K. So ignore it. In 1995 I wrote this: "If you read or hear about some investment idea or significant event more than once in the media, it won't work. By the time several commentators have thought and written about it, even new news is too old." In that spirit I say: Forget Y2K. - Kenneth L. Fisher [Forbes columnist]

Almost any investment counselor will try and debunk Y2k problems. They fear for their livelihood. No investors means they have no income. Can't say that I blame them, but I just keep thinking of the people getting potentially harmful information. - Frank Anderson, Jr.

Having spoken to numerous professionals who place permanent and contract programmers it appears that the [programmer] shortage hasn't grown in a year (still 350k) because so many companies did get a late start that they were forced to shift resources from new development to Y2k. By shifting internal resources they avoided having to hire as many contractors and new hires. Further, when they shut down some of those development projects they killed the additional hiring opportunities those projects would have produced. Incompetence is not a prerequisite to being in management! - Oscar Swischne

....the issue is not whether programmers are going to bail out before 1 Jan 2000, but rather whether they'll come back to work on Monday, January 3rd. A few months ago, two different programmers from two different banks in the Denver area told me the same story: they have already received a memo from their boss, informing them that all vacation time has been canceled for the fourth quarter of 1999 and the first quarter of 2000. Both programmers told me they're prepared to work 7 days a week during the last quarter of 1999, but they doubt very much that they'll show up at the office on January 3rd.... - Ed Yourdon

I think a lot of people view it as computer programmers trying to show the world just how powerful they are. "Yes, we can bring the world to its knees with our little programs!" It's just an amusing ploy by a group of nerds to draw attention to themselves. It remains to be seen who gets the last laugh. - Amy Leone

When I said I was selling our home of 18 years in Sydney and moving out to the boonies for safety, my wife took our kids (12 year old twins, boy and girl) and moved in with her parents. With her 60% of our assets the family is adding another storey to the home. I took the kids out for the day yesterday and again tried to warn about Y2K to my wife. It was like waving a red flag to a bull. Her love has already turned to hatred (as my "madness", as she sees it, is the cause of all her problems). Her parents dismiss my fears as insane. They lived through the great depression and refuse to consider that what is coming will not be the same. (After all, in the '20s there was a great sense of community spirit and each one helped his neighbour... Not any more.) All I can do is back off, and continue making preparations on my own. - David Harvey

Ah, the unscrupulousness of book authors. They write books on anything, just to sell their books. They put their reputations on the line just to sell their books. Is there a market out there? Write a book! ... Take a topic that is inherently implausible -- and that describes y2k -- and write a book on it. Overcome the readers' psychological skepticism of incomparable proportions -- yes, that's the way to make big bucks. Tell people what they don't want to hear. Tell them what radio investment commentators dismiss out of hand. In short, get rich by fighting the tape.... as a book publisher and author of 43 books -- none on y2k -- let me say that there are many ways to lose money in book publishing, and the best one is trying to convince people of what they do not want to believe. That's why every y2k book avoids my position: that Western civilization is at the brink. - Gary North

The critic refers to the fact that the man may be selling something related to y2k, as if the person owed it to the public for free, as if there were an unlimited supply of free information that can save lives. This implies that physicians would invent a career-threatening fake story about a coming plague just to get some lecture fees for a few years. It's nuts; it's also common. Show me a person who raises this argument, and I'll show you an envy-driven person in y2k denial who has no answers. - Gary North

After months of reading and studying the experts, gurus and news groups I have come away with the following: We could fix all the software if only there was enough time. Even if we could fix the software, the embedded chips would get us. Even if we could fix all the software, hardware and embedded chips, the public panic and resulting riots would get us. Even if we could calm the public, the rest of the world will not be ready for y2k and we would slowly starve to death except of course if our ICBMs accidentally fire and start WWIII. We must also take care that our traditional enemies don't panic and send theirs first. I have not even mentioned the terrorists from all over, mideast, far east and home-grown, who will seize the opportunity to poison and bomb us. Let's not forget all the nuclear reactors made by the Russians and Chinese that will probably melt down and kill us all with their lethal radioactive clouds. Even if y2k is a bump in the road, the Government is planning to turn us over to the UN and all dissidents will be confined in concentration camps spread out all over the country and administered by soldiers from ex-Soviet-bloc countries.... If all of these scenarios are correct, there will be no world to conquer and no profit to the conquerors who, if they step outside of their bunkers, will die from the bugs and gas and radiation which will have killed their armies anyway. Do I have it right? Or is this like a menu in a Chinese restaurant and I can select 1 from column a and 2 from column b and when do I get egg roll? - Bill Solorzano

....many Y2K "experts" insist that most organizations have started far too late to fix all their systems. It is sad that just because these experts have watched a few hundred non-Y2K-compliant systems crash and burn, and have seen how long it takes just to test a system, and have seen that organizations are allocating only a fraction of the needed resources to the problem, they think they can do some math and declare that almost everyone is ridiculously behind schedule. These experts obviously haven't watched enough television. By now, everyone should know that no problem is too big, and no odds are too high for a scrappy group of misfits who appear a little rough around the edges, yet when the going gets tough they can do the impossible. I can't count how many times I saw "The A-Team" take only one afternoon to create, for example, a tactical stealth helicopter using nothing but duct tape and an abandoned '76 Pacer. Certainly, our computer engineers could muster an equivalent feat! I bet that MacGyver alone could fix the Y2K problem using nothing but PVC pipe, a transistor radio, and Gouda cheese. - Paul Milne

First he didn't inhale. Now he didn't take oral sex to completion. Hmmmm. Do we see a pattern here? Skip to future: It is 2000, the government has collapsed, and Bill is brought before a tribunal to answer to alleged lies that he committed in speeches to the American public. Did he read the landmark GAO [Y2K] reports of 1998 or didn't he? "Well, yes, Your Honor, I looked at those reports - yes sir. I did not really 'read' them, though, if you know what I mean, hee hee. You see, my eyes went over the words, yes, but my eyes did not actually inha... errr .... transmit the meaning of the words to my brain. I looked, but I did not actually read. You see? So when I said that I read the reports back in that 1998 speech, I really meant that as I define the word 'read', I did read them. You do understand what I'm saying, don't you....?" - Paul LeBlanc

The idea of that everything can be fixed is part of our deep belief.... Our near-total belief in things like money, gross national product, the sanctity of jobs, the free market, the invisible hand, can be seen, if we look at our society with the eye of an anthropologist, to be basically, fundamentally, profoundly religious. From this perspective we can say that we have been living in one of the great ages of faith in history. - Douglass Carmichael

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