This is the first in a multi-part series of quotes made by "insiders" and programmers and what they thought about y2k. There will be a few more posted as well, to gain a better perspective on how the whole situation evolved. (Mega quotes III would go further back in time than part I. It seems they get better as we go further back into last year. That is, with all the PR spin we get in 1999.)
Click here for Mega quotes 0.5 [June/July]
Click here for Mega quotes I
Click here for Mega quotes II
Click here for Mega quotes III
Click here for Mega quotes IV
Click here for Mega quotes V
Click here for Mega quotes VI
I can only tell you that I do want the full, unvarnished truth about Y2K risks so that I can exercise the responsibility that I have for my family and my community. I may not represent a majority, but from the massive amount of e-mail that I receive every day, I know that there are several thousands of concerned citizens across the land who share my feelings. We learn that some 90% of the large companies in the U.S. are planning Y2K "control centers" for the millennium rollover, and that many companies are stockpiling a month of parts and raw materials -- and we wonder whether we should be doing the same thing. We learn, from a variety of sources, that roughly half of the small businesses, small towns, and small countries outside the U.S. have not even begun their Y2K preparations -- and we wonder what impact this will have on the global economy, and why so many economists continue telling us that it won't have any impact at all. We read story after story about the good progress that large companies and major Federal agencies are making -- but then we read.... that large companies are falling behind schedule, and that 22% don't think they will finish even their mission-critical systems. Some of us work in the computer software industry, and we know, from our own experience as well as the statistical data from metrics experts such as Capers Jones and Howard Rubin, that 15% of all software projects are late (by an average of 6-7 months), and 25% of all projects are cancelled before completion -- and we wonder what kind of special information or knowledge allows our nation's leaders to realistically expect that things will be substantially different for the thousands of Y2K projects underway today. Those who are determined to be optimists about Y2K can pluck from this hodge-podge of information the good news that they want to read; and those who are determined to be pessimists can find the bad news that they need to confirm their fears. But those who seek a middle road are merely confused; they don't know what to believe. - Ed Yourdon [before the U.S. Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem, United States Senate, May 25, 1999]I'm increasingly less concerned about whether there will be true systemic problems. What I am concerned about are people's reactions to the fear that something momentous is going to happen on January 1st 2000... I'm sure that people will get very wise soon and recognize that the last thing you want to do is to draw inordinate amounts of currency out of the banks. - Alan Greenspan [May 6, 1999] [As if he would say differently.]
Oh, and the Fed-Gov will be announcing [that people should prepare for Y2K-induced losses of services for] 14 days, heard it at WDC Y2K in the back of the room where the known troublemakers hang out. - Cory Hamasaki
Italy is going to crash, and we are going to be crucified.... We are supposed to make things go so smoothly that nobody would realize there was ever a problem. Instead we will be the scapegoats. We have only consultative powers, and no one is listening to us. - Romano Oneda [Italy's Year 2000 Committee education expert]
I received this letter from my bank: "Your ATM card has an expiration date of 1999, and will no longer work after 12/31/99. Therefore, you will be receiving a new ATM card in the mail in two weeks ahead. The expiration date on your new card will be 12/49 (December, 2049)." Which will expire first? 1. My ATM card; 2. Me; 3. The banking system. Gentlemen, place your bets. (Credit cards and money orders are acceptable until 12/31/99.) - Gary North
The more important issue behind the Euro weakness is the dirty little secret that is being kept from the general media at all costs - the Euro clearing system still does NOT work! .... Between banks, all currency transactions settle at the end of every day. Euro settlements are also taking days. Banks in London are putting Euro checks on a 4-week clearing status. The net effect, many are starting to discount the Euro in order to accept it.... This is not such a good story for a currency that was going to knock the dollar off this planet. Most central banks are still unofficially not accepting Euros as a reserve currency, which has been told to us on a confidential basis. If publicly confronted on this issue, everyone would naturally deny it, but the failure of the Euro has been expressed in its near perfect swan dive since January 1st. - Martin A. Armstrong [Nick's comment: Yet, the Euro is largely a "success story", unlike Y2K in Europe, where work was deferred to get the Euro up and running.]
Y2k has evidenced the largest failure to meet a deadline in computer history and it has happened three times in a row. Remember 12-31-1998 with a year for testing? Now it is June 30th, 1999 with six months for testing. Soon it will be September 30th with three months for testing and then 12-31-1999 with three minutes for testing and a full year for spin control. - Doug McIntosh
Despite assurances by most large US-based companies that they will be ready for the century date change, very few were actually ready at the end of last year. According to the disclosure reports they filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) during the fourth quarter of 1998, most large companies expect to be done with their Y2K projects sometime during the second half of 1999. The data provided by the largest companies suggest that they were just halfway through their projected Y2K budgets at the start of this year. Even more disturbing is that a March 1999 survey of 1,600 large Canadian companies found that only 18% expected to be ready at the end of April. Last May, this same survey found that 15% reported that they were ready at that time for Y2K. Is it possible that the proportion of large companies that are prepared for the century date change increased by only three percentage points in the past year in Canada? If so, are the Canadian results a good proxy for the situation in the United States? I suspect so, especially since Canadian company managers have been at least as aware and alarmed about Y2K as their American counterparts. - Ed Yardeni
While attending a collectibles show on the East Coast over the weekend, at dinner I happened to be sitting beside the wife of the head of the entire Y2K program for a major New York money center bank... Upon learning what her husband's position is, someone else at our table said, "I'm very concerned about Y2K; in fact, I intend to withdraw a considerable amount of my money from the banks this fall." To which the lady replied, "Oh, I've already done that!" ....I said to the lady, "You're telling us that your husband is in charge of a major bank's Y2K code remediation project and that you.... are taking your assets out of the system?" At this she took alarm and would not discuss it further. I think she realized she had let something slip out that should not have. - Cody Varian
I still think there is a 70 per cent chance of repression, which is pretty much the same expectation I had a year ago. - Ed Yardeni
Unlike before, I now believe there is about an 85% chance the market will drop at least 45% [due to Y2K]. And it's a 50-50 chance it will take four to five years to recover to new highs.... The bottom line is, the economy is headed for a recession, like I've said before. But it could last up to twice as long as I originally predicted. - John F. Mauldin
I was in looking at assault rifles today at one of my local gun stores.... I got to talking to the owner, and Y2K came up.... He told me that "more than one" of his best long-term customers, with affiliations to.... [CIA/DOD] groups, have told him of a plan for a "quick response" imposition of martial law. "72 hours." The date he heard from some of them was December 1st. To disburse the troops and have martial law in place in 72 hours. By December 4th, in other words. The idea for the timing, presumably, being that it will be clear by then just how many nations, companies, and agencies are not going to be ready. And enough time for the soldiers to integrate with the rail and utility distributions, perhaps for ration coupon books to be printed and available by January 1st, etc.... He didn't say his sources KNEW that martial law was going to be implemented, but that the sources had seen plans for possible implementation.... Take it as you will. - Tim May
I'm still unhappy about the fact that only two of the "regular" members of the committee bothered to show up for the hearing.... I know that lots of things are going on in the Senate, and May 25th was also the day that the Cox report was released ... but the fact remains that we witnesses (who appeared at their invitation, at our own expense, and having expended a considerable amount of time and energy preparing our statements) were speaking to an essentially empty room. To me, that says a lot about the degree of interest, and the sense of urgency (or lack thereof) that the government feels about all of this. I think Paloma O'Riley had the best comment of all, when she said that all of the concern that is being expressed about panicking and overreaction is ONLY related to preserving the economy; the politicians and government leaders show no such concern about the lives, health, and safety of the citizens themselves. But as the Clinton camp would, no doubt, remind us, "It's the economy, stupid!" - Ed Yourdon
The date code at my job, for our #1 system, is so badly broken, that we are throwing out 300+ COBOL and Macro Assembly programs on our mainframe. We looked at the then 17-year-old system in 1996, and because of its extensive use of dates, and because the system had extensive annual maintenance, worked on by who knows how many programmers, that all think differently, well, we figured it would be impossible to "patch" the system in time. We now have 14 people developing a system from scratch, using all state of the art stuff, SQL, Visual Studio, etc. Here's the best part. We will not be done by SUMMER 2000. We will have enough working to get basic annual production out the door, but the products will be missing quite a few details that are on the current mainframe system. So, from my tunnel vision point of view, yes, the code is broken. But what do I know. I've only been working and playing with computers for 31 years. - anonymous systems manager
Ultimately, there is only a limited amount of control that corporations and government agencies have over the technological outcome of Y2K; yet the prevailing attitude seems to be that government and industry are in control, as long as they can "manage" the perceptions of the public. I have believed, all along, that Y2K is too big, too complex, and too systemic in nature to be "controlled" from a technological perspective; and I believe that the public's perception of Y2K will ultimately be shaped by tangible events that impact their lives, much more than it's shaped by the "spin control" efforts of government and industry. For the past few months, the PR spin control has been quite effective, and I fully expect that it will continue throughout the summer as government and industry seek to "reassure" the public. And since the public would generally prefer to be reassured that the government is taking care of any problems looming on the horizon, rather than face the possibility of serious disruptions, the spin control efforts may continue succeeding even into the fall of 1999. - Ed Yourdon
I work in an IT department at a major bank. While I am not directly involved in the Y2K effort, many of my colleagues are, and I have access to a rich variety of remediation and testing data. The picture I am seeing is definitely not pretty. Our testing schedule is extremely tight. Several weeks ago the OCC mandated additional test dates that must be completed by the end of the month. The implications of not meeting these new deadlines, I do not know. I DO know however, that upper management is in a frenzy. Resources are being shuffled left and right and tension is palatable. I regularly monitor the abend logs and they are plentiful. Resources, system space, job dependencies, data files and warping coordination, etc. all seem to be conspiring against us. My direct supervisors have confided to me that they are stocking food. Of course all vacations have been cancelled. Will we make it? I honestly don't know. Will we say we will? Definitely. We still are rated "satisfactory" by the OCC. Everyone is, that I know of. What scares me is that I honestly believe that we are in better shape than our competitors. - anonymous programmer
For many manufacturing companies, JIT may have a new meaning in a few months: January It's Toast! - Randy Y. Jones
A $75-billion-plus financial services company with headquarters in Minneapolis, Minnesota, that serves millions of customers in locations throughout the Midwest and West has stated the intention to limit cash withdrawals by customers later this year. The bank president who gave me this information is very much against this idea, but due to the size and influence of the aforementioned institution, he feels other banks may follow suit.... he thought it would be a public relations nightmare and would make matters worse.... I believe this policy is an indication of the panic some bankers are starting to feel over the possibility of large cash withdrawals and the accompanying liquidity problems they will bring. - Nabi Davidson
"I believe that we are entering the 'end game' of Y2K, and that the outcome isn't likely to be changed significantly because of last-minute strategies, edicts, proclamations, or demands for deathmarch-style overtime on the part of programmers. About the only thing that's still an option, both for organizations and for individuals, is contingency planning and preparations for some degree of disruptions." Ed Yourdon, Author of TimeBomb 2000...05/30/1999
"It is natural for man to indulge in the illusions of hope. We are apt to shut our eyes against a painful truth, and listen to the song of that siren till she transforms us into beasts?. For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst, and to provide for it." Patrick Henry, American Patriot... 05/28/1999
"We?ve known for some time that small and mid-sized companies would have difficulties in their preparations for the new millennium. But the poor progress made by so many of America?s largest companies came as quite a shock." Dr. Martin Weiss, Chairman of Weiss Ratings, Inc....05/19/1999
?[Y2K litigation] is a very, very serious issue. The potential drain on the nation?s economy and the world economy is staggering.? Senator John McCain, (R-Arizona), chief sponsor of legislation that seeks to limit litigation resulting from Y2K... 05/05/1999
"The question is not will there be disruptions, but how sever the disruptions will be." Senate Special Report on Y2K (24 February 1999)
"The testing process has proven to be more complex, time consuming and costly than many banks anticipated." Comptroller of the Currency, John Hawke Jr.... 04/19/1999
There is no national, strategic plan to assure that critical infrastructures will continue to function." Senate Special Report on Y2K (24 February 1999)... 04/16/1999
"Every truth passes through three stages before it is recognized. In the first, it is ridiculed. In the second, it is opposed. In the third, it is regarded as self-evident." Arthur Schopenhauer, German Philospher... 04/06/1999
(1788-1860) "The Department of Defense has monumental Y2K problems, and it is severely behind in addressing them. It is at risk of not completing remediation of all of its mission-critical systems in time." Senate Special Report on Y2K (24 February 1999)... 03/29/1999
"Even if the U.S. could remediate all of its systems and embedded processors in time (which it cannot), it would, in an economic sense, still be at the mercy of the rest of the world." Senate Special Report on Y2K (24 February 1999)... 03/25/1999
"Owing to past neglect, in the face of plainest warnings, we have now entered upon a period of danger. The era of procrastination, of half measures, of delays is coming to a close. In it?s place we are entering a period of consequences; we can not avoid this period, we are in it now. Unless this house resolves to find out the truth for itself, it will have committed an act of abdication of duty without parallel." Winston Churchill, Testimony to the House of Commons, Debate on National Defense Posture (12 November 1936)...03/16/1999
"On the positive side, Y2K awareness is growing. In the past year, both public and private institutions have doubled their efforts to find, evaluate, and address Y2K risk exposure. The committee has seen a significant amount of progress since its inception. However, Senate hearings, interviews, and research have not produced convincing evidence the the Y2K problem is well in hand." "Investigating the Year 2000 Problem," From a new report released Feb 1999 by the U.S. Senate... 03/09/1999
"We believe that disruptions will occur that in some cases will be significant.... Those who suggest that it [Y2K] will be nothing more than a 'bump in the road' are simply misinformed." Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem,.. 03/01/1999
"Real Y2K successes should be applauded. They should not, however, be used as smokescreens for the real Y2K situation. " Senator Bob Bennett (R-Utah), Chairman of the Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem... 02/20/1999
"My opinion is that we're going to suffer a year of technological disruptions, followed by a decade of depression." Ed Yourdon, World-reknowned programming expert and author of Time Bomb 2000... 02/16/1999
"We need to state unequivocally that Y2K is indeed an event that has potentially massive and unpredictable economic, social, and geo-political ramifications." Senator Bob Bennett (R-Utah), Chairman of the Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem... 02/08/1999
"One weak link anywhere in the chain of critical dependencies can cause a cascading effect of major shutdowns of business operations. Consequently, it is imperative to develop contingency plans." David Walker, Comptroller General of the United States, the nation's top federal auditor... 01/23/1999
"We are deeply concerned about the railroads. We have no indication that they are going to make it." John Koskinen, The Clinton Administration's Y2K Czar... 01/11/1999
"The level of disaster is still fundamentally our choice." Dr. Howard Rubin, Y2K expert and Professor at Hunter College New York City, NY... 01/04/1999
"We?ll?just wait until the clock rolls over to see if things work or don?t work." Dave Bufalo, Denver's Y2K Director, who says there is no way the city can repair or replace all non-compliant chips in time...12/28/1998
"When I think about an American family sitting down for a meal, I cannot help but think about the tens of thousands of people whose work went into producing that meal?. I must confess, however, that until recently I hadn?t thought very much about the connection between the food on our tables and computers." Dan Glickman, Secretary of Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture... 12/22/1998
"What?s going to happen when whole countries drop off the radar screen with no infrastructure remaining?" Senator Bob Bennett (R-Utah), Chairman of the Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem... 12/15/1998
"At this point in time, we can say with assurance there are people who aren't going to make it ? we're definitely past the period of where you're going to solve the problem. We're into mitigation Michael Powell, Commissioner of the Federal Communications Commission (FCC)... 12/08/1998
It is essential that the President begin to address the Year 2000 issue much more frequently. President Clinton and Vice President Gore cannot continue to act as if this problem is going to solve itself. Rep. Stephen Horn (R-Calif.), Chairman of the U.S. House Subcommittee on Government, Management, Information, and Technology... 11/30/1998
"I'm truly scared about the year 2000 [problem]." Robert Stanky, Manager of the Fidelity Magellan Fund, the largest mutual fund in the United States... 11/23/1998
"We don?t even know yet what we don?t know about how Y2K will affect defense systems." Lt. Gen. Albert J. Edmonds, former director of the Defense Information... 11/09/1998
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