11/13 - All Star Series Results

11/12 - All Star Rosters

11/06 - Sim 5 Review

11/03 - Different Approaches to Run Scoring

10/22 - Looking at the New Player Seasons (Batting Edition)

10/17 - Week 2 - Making Statements

10/10 - Week 1 is Done

10/05 - Opening Weekend

09/11 - Greatest Pitching Staff of All time

09/10 - T-minus 7 Days

09/05 - The Best Offense

09/04 - Player Profile:  Lefty Grove

08/31 - Player Profile:  Tris Speaker

08/30 - Remember the Era!

08/30 - Why the 1800s Players Were Introduced to ATB

08/27 - The DMB Manager Profile

08/24 - Defense Matters

08/23 - Greatest Seasons of All Time Baseball

08/21 - PC Mock Draft

11/13 - All Star Series Results

It's fun to be wrong.  I joked with several Federal League owners this pre-season about how much better the FL is over the Union League.  After all, the vast majority of previous ATB champions all happen be in the FL.  To add weight, the FL jumped out to a huge lead in head to match-ups in the first month.  Then came the All Star game. Again, I thought for sure the FL would easily dispatch their foe's but when looking at the teams, it became clear the All Star's were evenly matched.

Then came the All Star Series itself.  On a whim, I decided to up the number of games to 11 without actually thinking it would go this long.  Sure enough, the Fed's jumped out to a 5-1 series lead and I stopped paying attention (well, as much as one can stop when he's running the sims on his own computer). 

But then in Game 7 the Fed's ran into a wall in the form of the Union League's bullpen.  In Game 8 Jason Schmidt proved his was an All-Star; Game 9 Randy Johnson tosses a 3-hitter.  Then came Game 10 and I started to worry, but knew Pedro Martinez was on the mound.  5 runs in less than 5 innings and the series was tied at 5 games a piece.  And wouldn't you know it, the series was decided on a 2 run 9th inning rally.  Here's a game by game blow of a series that was unexpectedly stimulating.

Game 1:  UL 1, FL 2 - FL Leads Series 1-0

In a great pitchers duel between Number One starters Randy Johnson (DBS) and Bill Bernhard (MRE) the game entered the 7th inning with the visiting UL clinging to a 1-0 lead.  Earlier, Lou Gehrig (STE) popped a solo home run down the right field line to open the scoring of the series.  Both starters were cruising with Johnson striking out 6 through 6.  In the bottom of the 7th though, he made his only mistake of the game.  With 2-outs, the UL pinch hitter Tip O'Neil (MRE) walked, bringing the 9th place hitter Nap Lajoie (CD) to the plate. The second basemen was hitless in his two previous at bats but took a first pitch offering from Johnson deep to right field, clearing the fence for a 2-run home run and a one run lead.

Bernhard ran into a bit of trouble in the 8th, but got out of a small jam by retiring Hugh Duffy (SCS) and Charlie Keller (CWS) with runners on 1st and second.  Bruce Sutter (B&B) had a 1-2-3 ninth, striking out Mickey Mantle (NYB) to end the game.

Game 2:  FL 5, UL 6 - Series tied 1-1

The FL team picked things up right where left off, jumping out to an early 3-0 lead when Babe Ruth (B&B) drilled a 3-run home run off starter Curt Schilling (DBS) with 2-outs in the first.  Schilling would struggle the rest of the night (5 IP, 7 H, 1 BB) but yielded only 1 more run, unearned, in the 6th when Honus Wagner (SCS) booted an easy ground ball with the bases loaded.

Meanwhile, perennial ATB great Pedro Martinez (CD) was struggling as well, giving up a run in the third, two in the 4th, and one more in the 6th before leaving with the game tied at 4-4.  Ruth struck again in the top of the 7th, this time with a run scoring single off of reliever Joe Sambito (CWS) giving the Fed's a one run lead to turn over to their stellar bullpen.  Jim Poole (MRE) worked his way out of a 7th inning pickle when Mantle was thrown out at home trying to score on a ground ball to second.   Poole then pitched a hitless 8th before giving way to Sutter for the save opportunity.

The closer struck out Duffy but gave up single to Wagner, bringing Mantle back up to the plate.  Mantle had driven in a run earlier and took a full count fastball over the wall in right for a walk-off home run, tying the series at 1-1.

Game 3:  UL 4, FL 8 - FL Leads series 2-1

A blowout, with the UL starter Teddy Higuera (CWS) getting bounced after recording just three outs.  In the second inning, 5 consecutive base runners reached base with 4 runners scoring.  One out later Frank Robinson (SID) smacked a home run down the left field line scoring the 7th run of the inning.  Cy Blanton (MRE) didn't pitch particularly well for the Union League (4 IP, 4 R, 8 H) but the pen held down the opposition easily (5 IP, 4 H, 0 R)

Game 4:  FL 4, UL 2 - FL Leads Series 3-1

UL Starter Jason Schmidt (DBS) gives up 3 runs in the 1st two innings (3 IP, 8 H, 3 R) after Robinson strikes with a 2-run single and Darren Daulton (CD) hits a solo home run in the second.  Ben Sheets (B&B) pitched well to record the victory (6 IP, 5 H, 5 K, 2 R) and simply tired to open the 7th, giving up back to back solo home runs to Gehrig and Mantle.  The UL pen was stellar once again, with Poole and Sutter giving up just 2 hits and no runs in the final three frames.

Game 5:  FL 5, UL 3 - FL Leads Series 4-1

Going back to the #1 starters, Johnson and Bernhard, the Federal Leaguer comes up victorious again pitching into the 8th inning giving up 3 runs on 8 hits.  Johnson faired much worse and couldn't get out of the 4th (9 hits, 3 R).  The Fed's scored lone runs in 1st, 3rd, 4th, 7th, and 8th innings to take a 5-1 lead before the UL threatened, making a game of it when Rogers Hornsby (SS) and Gehrig each drove in a runner.  But the 9th was quiet and the game never really in doubt.

Game 6:  UL 0, FL 4 - FL Leads Series 5-1

Martinez was masterful, striking out 10 and giving up just 3 hits, en route to a complete game shutout.  Schilling was a bit unlucky, but struggled at times nonetheless (4 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 2 ER) giving him his second below average start of the series.  O'Neil, Barry Bonds (P10), Derek Jeter (AV), and Daulton each drove in runners.  The series was all but over.

Game 7:  UL 7, FL 6:  FL Leads Series 5-2

The UL keeps the series alive thanks to multi-hit games from Ty Cobb (RSI), Hornsby, Gehrig, Sherry Magee (CWS), and Steve Evans (SCS).  Neither starter pitched well, but the UL pen outperformed their opponents with Tim Burke (SCS) nailing down a 6-out save and the chance to play again.

Game 8:  FL 1, UL 2:  FL Leads Series 5-3

The Union'ers won't go way as Schmidt bent but didn't break leading his team to a 1 run victory.  Schmidt pitched into the 8th, giving up 9 hits and 3 walks, but just 1 run before yielding to Rafael Soriano (SS) and Burke to hold down the win.  The game was still in doubt in the 9th when O'Neil roped a 2-out single to keep a mini-rally alive, but John McGraw (MRE) was gunned down by Cobb when he tried for 3rd. 

The UL offense struck in the eighth inning, scoring their runs off of starter Sheets (7 IP, 5 H, 2 ER).  Their were signs of trouble in the 7th when Sheets narrowly got out of a bases loaded jam, and in the eighth he couldn't hold the UL squad back any longer.  Catcher Wally Schang (STE) led off with a walk and scored when the next batter, Hugh Duffy (SCS) doubled him home.  Octavio Dotel (AM) came in in relief and struck out the side, but not before Mantle singled home Duffy with the game winner.

Game 9:  UL 3, FL 0:  FL Leads Series 5-4

Nerves?  The FL bats died behind a masterful performance from #1 starter Johnson.  His line:  9 IP, 3 H, 6 K and a complete game shutout. The most he was in trouble all night was early the 1st when Cy Seymour (SID) doubled Robinson to 3rd but Johnson induced to weak groundouts to end the inning. 

The game was close throughout, with the 1st run coming across the plate in 6th on a 1-out HR from Hornsby.  The teams entered the 9th with the UL clinging to a 1-0 lead but Adrian Beltre (DBS) hit a 2-run home run off of reliever Poole to put the game out of reach.  The game ended on a ground ball double play off the bat of Jeter.  The UL was now just 1 game away from knotting the series at 5 all.

Game 10:  FL 5, UL 10:  Series tied 5-5

The FL fans breathed a huge sigh of relief as their squad scored 3 runs in the top of the first off of starter Schilling when Bonds drilled a 3-run home run deep to right center.  Schilling pitched poorly for the third time in the series, lasting just 2 innings this time.  The Federal League would add another run in third on a Nap Lajoie Home Run, staking the visitors to a 4 run lead.  Nothing would go right for them the rest of the night.

Martinez made his third start for FL and was mediocre early.  He struck out the side in the 2nd but gave up two hits.  In the third he seemed unnerved when 1st Basemen Jason Giambi (AV) booted a ground ball and gave up his first run of the game when Duffy doubled, moving the runner to third, and Wagner followed with a run scoring force out. 

Things got worse in the 4th.  A single and a 1-out walk brought Beltre to the plate, who doubled home both runners to bring the UL within 1 run.  The next inning Wagner singled to lead off, and while Martinez retired the next two batters, he then grooved a fastball to Willie McCovey who drove the 1-0 offering deep into the night and gave the UL their first lead of the game.  That was all for Martinez who left with a line of:  4.2 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 6 K.

The Union League scored again in the 6th but broke open the game for good in the 8th. Dotel started the inning by giving up back to back singles to Jackie Robinson (CWS) and Beltre and the 7th UL runner of the game scored on a force out by pinch hitter Evans.  The game was still in reach for the FL team, with the score 7-5 but Duffy and Wagner then each singled home a run and another force out made the game 10-5.  The Federal League recorded just one hit, a single, from the 6th inning on. 

Game 11:

The two evenly matched teams now found themselves in a 1 game duel, a do or die situation with 3rd starters Higuera and Blanton facing off.  Neither starter was effective in their earlier to match-ups, giving up a combined 18 runs in 14 innings.

Both teams went down in order in the first but the Federal League was the first to strike. In the second, Frank Robinson homered with Bonds on base after getting hit by a pitch giving FL an early lead.  Higuera would settle down retiring 8 of the next 10 batters he faced.

Meanwhile, Blanton was solid through three innings, yielding just a single and walk while striking out two.  But in the 4th Hornsby led off with a single, Gehrig followed with a run scoring double to right center, and after a sac bunt, Charlie Keller (CWS) drove home Gehrig on a sac fly.  The score was knotted at 2.

Both teams scored in the 5th.  Beltre homered for the UL and Bill Dickey (MRE) scored on a sac fly after tripling to lead off the inning.  In the 6th Gehrig homered and put the UL on top 4-3.  Higuera pitched great, lasting through 7 giving up just 2 hits all night.  Soriano relieved him and retired the side in order in the 8th.  Similarly, the UL pen was solid - Warren Hacker (SID), Pool, and Dizzy Dean (CD) pitched the 6th - 9th innings giving up just 2 hits and no runs.

The game would likely have been over had the closer Burke not thrown 55 innings the night before.  He stayed in the game for 13 batters and was spent.  As a result Soriano was forced into a 6-out save situation, but never recorded an out in the 9th.  Ted Williams (MRE) started things off with a single, battling Soriano for 7 pitches before lacing a liner to center.  Bonds came up and hit a ground ball in the 2nd base hole just hard enough to get past Gehrig and Hornsby.  Amazingly, Bonds then took second on defensive indifference, a terrible call by the AI to put the winning run in scoring position with nobody out.  Sure enough the next batter, Robinson again, hit a ground ball single over second base, driving in both Williams and Bonds and winning the game.

• MVP:  Frank Robinson.  The Dumper didn't have a great line (.275 / .318 / .425) but came up big in several games, driving in 10 runners. 

• Runner Up:  Bill Bernhard.  Was great in 3 games, going 1-2 with a 1.93 ERA in over 23 IP.

Here are some reports:

Fed League Batting

Fed League Pitching

Union League Batting

Union League Pitching

Team Batting Totals

Team Pitching Totals

And if you didn't notice, the box scores are linked above each game summary.

11/12 - All Star Rosters

The ATB All-Star "Game" is to be held in the middle of the upcoming sim.  The "game" is actually a best of eleven series and the winning team gets World Series home field advantage for it's league.  The named starters will start in all odd number games, with the back-ups starting in even numbered games.  Manager profiles will be identical, with pinch hitting and relief pitching usage cranked up to at least give the appearance of an All Star contest.  Parks will be the two oldest active not already picked by an owner - 1916 Wrigley Field and 1923 Yankee Stadium.

In case you are worried, the All Star Series is treated as an exhibition with injuries turned off and has no impact to the real league whatsoever, not even fatigue or pitch counts. 

Here are the rosters and a brief synopsis of which league has the edge.  There are no requirements for at least 1 representative for every team, but it did happen to work out that this year no team is left un-represented.

OFFENSE

The Federal League enjoys a slight advantage on offense, from top to bottom they have a few better hitters than the squad from the Union League.  As you will see, the difference is almost entirely due the fact that the Union has no answer to Ted Williams;  the Fed's have two 1.000+ OPS starters while the Union has just one:

The Federal's start with four batters who get on base at a 40% clip and every member from 2nd to 5th in the lineup slugs at least .500.  Indeed, the entire team averages a .500 slugging percentage.  The Union squad has the best lead-off hitter in the game, Ty Cobb, followed by the best hitting catcher in the game, King Kelly.

The two teams are truly evenly matched.  The green highlight denotes a better hitting position in the lineup, while yellow denotes the two competitors are about equal.

Defensively, the Federal League holds the advantage with 6 players rated at Vg or better for their range.  The Unioners have 4. 

STARTING PITCHING

The starting pitchers of Union League best their opponents in every single major pitching category.   This is born out by the starting pitcher to starting pitcher comparisons as well:

Whatever edge the Federal League had is squarely given away by the superiority of the Union League starting rotation.  Each member of the UL is better than their counterpart.  True, a lot of this is because the Black Sox play in the Bee-Hive, the best pitching park in the game, but their starters are not to be underrated.  This is a significant advantage for the UL.

BENCH and BULLPEN

The Top 3 pitchers for the FL are better than the top 3 from the UL.  Each sport ERA's under 1.60 and have combined for an 8-1 record.  The middle reliever corps are about equal, and shouldn't play too much of a factor.

Hitting versus defense.  Led by Tip O'Neill, a 1.000+ OPS outfielder who can't crack the starting lineup thanks to Ted Williams and Barry Bonds, the FL's bench is full of good hitters.  The UL are clearly weaker, but perhaps make up form it with 2 Ex and 2 Vg defenders for situations close and late.

CONCLUSION

It's a 7 game series that anybody can win, but the edge has to go to the UL because they better the FL in single most important player of each game - the starting pitcher.  

I'll post the results tomorrow.  In the meantime, here is the representation by team:

11/06 - Sim 5 Review

And …… we’re back on track.

There are two 40-win teams in ATB and they both happen to reside in the Federal League.  The New York Blues and Rockaway Sleep Deprived Insomniacs had great Sim’s (combined 20-9) and are now tied for first place, a full 5 games ahead of the third place Dyersville Black Sox.  Neither team lost a series and if you take a look at the standings charts you can see how the two clubs are fast pulling away from the pack.  Of course, it is still early, and last time a race was pronounced in jeopardy the following week there was a three way tie for 1^st. 

The Insomniacs had a strong week from the heart of their lineup – Dan Brouthers, Arky Vaughan, and Reggie Jackson combined for 42 RBI in 15 games and King Kelly batted .405 in his 42 at-bats.  Guy Hecker was the star for the rotation, going undefeated in 3 starts, walking three and striking out 16 while maintaining a miniscule ERA of just 2.11

The Blues were solid too, going 9-5 but yielding a few games in the standings to their rivals in large part due to reliever John Smoltz, who coughed up 3 wins in relief, giving up 20 hits in just 10 2/3 innings pitched.  Ron Guidry was the best starter (2.84 ERA, 4 G) but could only manage one win thanks to a bullpen that was shaky at times.  Luckily, Cal Ripken batted .404 with a .596 slugging, and Willie McCovey slugged .786 and scored 10 runs during the week of games. 

While playing just over .500, the Black Sox did lowering their team ERA to 3.38, by far the best in all of baseball.  On the season, Randy Johnson is easily the best pitcher in the game, giving up just 69 hits in over 90 innings of work and his 2.45 ERA best by a wide margin.  But the Black Sox also rely heavily on Curt Schilling, who leads the league in wins, and Jason Schmidt (5 W, 3.11 ERA).  In fact, the only starter with an ERA below league average is Pud Galvin.  Their bullpen is talented – Mike Timlin (0.55 ERA), Joe Nathan (1.67 ERA), Willie Hernandez (1.69 ERA), and Rick Aguilera (1.86 ERA) can shut down games in the latter innings as the team's 31-3 record when leading after 7 can attest.

Over in the Union League, the Manetheren Red Eagles had a good week, going 9-5 and capturing 1^st place.  Thanks to a potent offense, the Red Eagles now have the best run differential in the game.  Hot on their heels though are the Staten Island Dumpers and Planet 10, both teams within a few games of first place.  Planet 10 had been the division leader, but a 6-8 week halted their long stretch atop the division.

From here on out I'll report on Wild Card race, but it is much too early to pay close attention.  Remember, top two non-division winners, regardless of leagues, advance to the playoffs.

* Currently tied for division lead                                                                       

Other News / Notes

• Art Vandalay’s pitching staff is as bad as the Black Sox staff is good. Their team ERA is 5.46, worst in ATB, and the 2^nd worst team’s is 4.80.  No pitcher, reliever or starter, has an ERA under 4.00.

• Jayson Stark reports that the CosaNostra Deliverators are 13-2 when Jim Edmonds homers but only 7-5 when Travis Hafner does.

• John Olerud leads ATB in Game Winning RBI’s with 11.  4 of these have been in the 8^th inning or later, and on April 10, he did it twice, capping a 2-run game tying rally in the 9^th and later winning the game in extra innings with a single.

• On May 26^th versus the Deliverators, the Red Eagles scored 10 runs in the 7^th, breaking open a close 5-4 contest for good.  Here’s what happened:

- TWilliams grounded a single up the middle (CX)

- O'Neill,T walked, TWilliams to second (CBBbBB)

- Dickey grounded out to short, TWilliams to third, O'Neill,T to second (C>X), Flick pinch hitting for HJennings

- Flick lined a double down the first base line, TWilliams scored, O'Neill,T scored (X)

- Lynn lined a double to right center, Flick scored (CX)

- Tenney grounded a single up the middle, Lynn scored, Tenney to second (BX)

- Doyle grounded a single between third and short, Tenney to third (X)

- JMcGraw was hit by a pitch, Doyle to second (>FH)

- Burkett lined a double to right center, Tenney scored, Doyle scored, JMcGraw scored, Burkett to third on an error by the second baseman Myer (BBCX)

- TWilliams lined a single down the right field line, Burkett scored (CFBBX)

- O'Neill,T tripled deep to right center, TWilliams scored (FX)

- Dickey lined a single to left, O'Neill,T scored (BX)

- Flick lined a single to left, Dickey to second (CBX)

- Lynn flied out to center, Dickey to third (X)

- Tenney lined out to first (BX)

Yes, that’s 10 consecutive batters reaching base and on the inning the Red Eagles hit 6 singles, 2 doubles, 1 triple, walked once, and was hit by a pitch once.

• Finally, not sure how I missed it, but on May 5 Pete Rose broke up a no-hit bid by the Tax Evaders Steve Carlton with 1-out in the 8^th inning.  Rose doubled, Rafael Soriano followed with a home run, but the Ridgewood Houdini’s did manage to escape with the win.

11/03/07 - Different Approaches to Run Scoring

Through sim 5A six offenses have separated themselves from the field of 16, scoring over 300 runs and opening up a sizeable lead over the remaining 10 teams in terms of total runs scored.  Not coincidentally, each of these six are less than 2.5 games out first place and as the summer heats up, these offenses will look to take advantage of their runs scoring abilities.

Two of these teams however, have additionally separated themselves from the "pack of 6" by scoring almost 6 runs per game.  Interestingly, they have separate and distinct approaches to run scoring:

- Team A is 1st in the league with 102 HR.

- Team B is 12th in the league, and just 4 HR from being 14th (45 HR)

- Team B is an on-base machine, with an incredible .387 team on base, a full 14 points better than the 2nd best team.

- Team A has a team on base of .348, just above league average.

- Team A is batting .290 / .348 / .464, .8121 OPS

- Team B is batting .311 / .387 / .425, .8124 OPS

Team A is the New York Blues, and Team B is the Manetheren Red Eagles.  Here's a brief look into each starting lineup.

The Blues are obviously a dangerous team.  7 of the 9 lineups slots are slugging over .450 when the league average is just .405, and 5 of the top 25 HR hitters in the entire game are on the squad.  At current pace, they will have just one regular fail to hit 15 HR, and an incredible 5 of them will have hit 30 or more.  Mickey Mantle is in the midst of a historic season, with legitimate chances at 50 HR, 120 R, and 155 RBI and finally, the teams #8 hitter Al Rosen, may reach 100 RBI before all is said and done.  All in all, with the exception of Mike Piazza in the 8-hole, each person in the line-up is dangerous.

The Blues are 11-3 when hitting 3 or more home runs and have had just 7 games all season where they have failed to hit at least one ball out the park.  They happen to play their home games in one of most prolific home-run hitting parks of all time, but interestingly enough, they win just as often on the road as they do at home.

Of course, as with any home run heavy team, there is the potential  weakness of getting shut-down waiting for the 3-run home run that never happens.  But the Blues seem to account for this by batting .290 as team, and winning 13 of 20 when hitting 'just' 1 home run.  The most telling stat is the fact that they don't consistently win until they score 6 or more runs.  The list below is the team's W-L in games they score "X" runs.

0: 0-1

1: 0-2

2: 2-5

3: 1-2

4: 6-3

5: 2-4

6: 4-1

7: 7-4

8: 4-0

9: 5-0

The Manetheren Red Eagles on the other hand, are almost entirely scoring runs through attaining multiple hits in an inning.  They are built remarkably well for this thanks to the fact the first 8 hitters in the lineup all get on base at clips of .380 or better.  And the first four of these players, led by Ted Williams at .471, all get on base well above 40% of the time. 

The Red Eagles have failed to score at least 3 runs just 8 times this season and lead the league in games (10) where they have scored 10 or more times.  They lead all offenses in Batting Average, On-Base, RC/27, TAVG, OPS, and K/BB ratio for batters, yet are doing all this despite hitting just 0.8 HR's per contest.

In their last 13 games, the Red Eagles have averaged 7.7 runs per contest batting .363 / .437 / .498 as a team. 

Two teams. Two different philosophies.  Two great offenses.

10/24 - Week 3:  Union Domination (OLD SIM THAT WAS RE-RUN)

And in the blink of an eye the Federal League is turned upside down.  Last week at this time the Rockaway Sleep Deprived Insomniacs held a 1.5 game lead, but more importantly, looked to be one of the powerhouses of ATB.  Fast forward one Sim Week (14 games for them) and the Insomniacs are in 3rd place, fighting to stay above .500.  It was a truly awful week.  Their hitters posted a .239 AVG and .318 SLG while their rotation could manage just 6 quality starts (43%); the two facts combined made them the 2nd worst team in the Sim  at 3 wins against 11 losses, getting outscored by 41 in the process.

Taking advantage of this slip were the Dyersville Black Sox who now stand a few games over .500 after going 8-5.  Pitching is the key to any sort of Dyersville success.  Their rotation is led by Randy Johnson (5-0, 2.20 ERA) and Hank Aguirre (3-4, 3.73 ERA) but Jason Schmidt (4-3, 2.95 ERA) and Curt Schilling (3-3, 4.12 ERA) have been impressive as well.  Only Pud Galvin has been worse than the league average in terms of ERA.   The bullpen head is Joe Nathan (2.30 ERA, league leading 13 saves) but Willie Hernandez has been virtually unhittable, giving up just 10 hits in 21+ innings of work.  His ERA currently stands at a miniscule 0.86.

The worst team in the Sim, and perhaps the worst team in the entire game, appears to be the Saginaw Slammers.  Despite playing the homer-happy Baker bowl the Slammers are scoring just 4.1 runs per game, tied for 2nd worst in the game.  Their slugging average is well below the league average (.389 vs .401) which coupled with their .237 team batting average has brought forth a disaster for the pre-season playoff hopeful.  The team is now 13-26 and 9.5 games back.

In the Union League, Planet 10 had the best record thanks to a stellar batting line (.307 / .373 / .436) and timely good starting pitching (3.51 Team ERA).  After another great Sim, Jack Chesbro is 6-0 with an ERA of 1.30.  He finally had some help this week though, as  Luis Tiant (3-0, 3.20 ERA) and Denny McLain (1-1, 2.57) pitched very well.  Still, there is cause for concern since on the season Planet 10 has still given up more runs than any other.  The two offensive hero's during the week were Barry Bonds (4 HR, 10 R, 13 RBI) and Oscar Charleston (.433 / .469 / .600). Planet 10 surpassed the CosaNostra Deliverators in the standings and now hold a 1.5 game lead. 

Other than the new 1st place teams the main story of Sim 3 was the domination of the Federal League during interleague play.  Every game in Sim 3 was interdivisional, and only one team had a losing record against the Union League (Staten Island Dumpers, 4-10), with the rest combining for a 55-38 record (.591 Wpct.).  On the season the Federal League's record is a bit more even at 87-73 (.544 Wpct) but a strong trend has certainly emerged.  This is key as the the two wild card teams are the ones with the next best records, regardless of league, meaning a division is allowed to have 3 of the 4 playoff teams.  Here are each team's record in Inter League play:

Taking my Cuts (Tom Verducci Style)

1. The New York Blues Jonathan Papelbon has been incredible, leading the league in a host of pitching categories (minimum 50 batters faced).  His ERA is 0.50; H/9 is 4.0, K/9 is 9.5, and WHIP is 0.72.  He's the best closer in the business at the moment.

2. But, he's not been as good as Babe & Babe's middle reliever Keith Foulke.  The right-handed set-up man has a better H/9 (3.2), better K/9 (10.5), a better WHIP (0.66), and better RCERA (0.86 vs. 0.94). 

3. Only one team is undefeated in all of a pitcher's starts, Planet 10 is now 7-0 when Chesbro takes the mound.  He's pitched 4 Complete Games (1 a shut-out) and only Pedro Martinez has a better Quality Start %.

4. Russ Ford is a compete game machine, finishing 6 of his 8 starts with an average of 117 pitches thrown per game.  Among starters with 5 or more starts, Clark Griffith is throwing the fewest amount of pitches per game with an average of 49.  Yes, this is not a good sign (his ERA is over 7.00).  Addie Joss is probalby the most proficient "good" pitcher, averaging 86 tosses per game and he has 3 CG under his belt plus an ERA under 3.50.

5. Three of the Top 6 RBI men are Red Eagles (Fred Lynn, 38; Ted Williams, 37; Norm Cash, 36)

6. Over the past month, the best team in the league has been CosaNostra (18-10); the worst team is the Slammers (7-19); the best offense belongs to the Red Eagles (6.2 R/G) and best staff has been Babe & Babe (3.8 R/G).

10/22 - Looking at the New Player Seasons (Batting Edition)

With the influx of new owners to ATB IX we have seen a corresponding influx of new players onto our player list.  During the off season several hundred 1800’s Players, Negro Leaguers, 2006 Players, and new draft preferences from owners have increased our source database to an astounding 509 batter-seasons and 433 pitcher seasons.  These are truly the greatest 1000 or so seasons of all time, at least within our selection criteria.

Each season owners undoubtedly think they are smarter than a previous owner and either change the year used or draft outside the norm, looking for the hidden gem to help take them to the title.  What follows is a review of some of these batting choices after 45 games of play.  We’ll hit up the pitchers next week, once the sample size grows a bit and the starters have 10 games under their belts.

GOOD CHOICES

Oscar Charleston, 1925 – Planet 10

.354 / .380 / .519, .900 OPS, 7 HR, 31 R, 28 RBI, 14 SB, 5 CS

Planet 10 took a gamble in selecting the Negro League center fielder with the 14^th pick of the fourth round, which is of course very early for a unknown quantity.  It has paid off however – Charleston is in the top 5 at his position, combining very good outfield defense with power and speed.  He leads all centerfielders in runs scored and is second in Runs Created behind only Mickey Mantle.

Paul Waner, 1928 – Absurdville Madness

.383 / .434 / .518, .952 OPS, 1 HR, 13 R, 20 RBI

The 1934 version of Paul Waner has had mild ATB success in the past though never given a true starting job (at least in recent memory).  The Madness selected Waner in the 14^th round and he soon became their #3 hitter against both lefties and righties.  Shocking as that may seem, the left-hand hitting right fielder has been great, leading his team in Batting Average, On-Base Percentage, and Slugging.  (Then again, maybe this is more of an indictment of the third worst offense in the game?)

Ty Cobb, 1915 – Rockaway Sleep Deprived Insomniacs

.359 / .432 / .473, .906 OPS, 3 HR, 28 R, 11 RBI, 15 SB, 6 CS

Cobb, of course, has been a perennial powerhouse in ATB so it was more than a mild risk for the Insomniacs to change the selection year to 1915.  Interestingly, this is now Cobb’s 4^th different season tried in ATB, and while in most cases owners try multiple seasons of a player as a way figure out what’s wrong, in Cobb’s case it is more attributable to how many great “real-life” years he’s had.  The Insomniacs wanted on-base percentage out of their lead-off slot and he’s currently 5^th in the league in the category.

Billy Hamilton, 1894 – Babe & Babe

.320 / .429 /.367, .796 OPS, 0 HR, 26 R, 8 RBI, 21 SB, 7 CS

A 6^th Rounder, Hamilton is living up to expectations and performing exactly along the lines of his real life Hall of Fame career –high average, great on-base, little power, and speed to burn. Given that Hamilton is Babe & Babe’s lead-off hitter he is meeting all expectations leading his team in Stolen Bases & On-base percentage, while maintaining 2^nd place in batting average and runs scored.

Josh Gibson, 1938 – Fullerton Big Trains

.333 / .393 / .625, 1.018 OPS, 9 HR, 23 R, 18 RBI

The second Negro Leaguer to make this list, and the first catcher taken in the draft (5^th Round), Gibson is a powerhouse featuring a .600+ Slugging Percentage and 1.000+ OPS, both easily the best marks of any back-stop in the game.  In fact, among qualified leaders at the catcher position, Gibson is 1^st in OBP, SLG, OPS, HR, R, and RC.  Unfortunately for Fullerton, he’s also the only batter hitting with any consistency on the team.

Honorable Mentions

John McGraw, 1899 – Manetheren Red Eagles (.481 OBP, 30 R)

Pete Browning, 1887 – CosaNostra Deliverators (.343 AVG, 28 R, 20 RBI)

NOT-SO-GOOD CHOICES

Bill Mazeroski, 1966 – Babe & Babe

.167 / .180 / .217, 397 OPS, 1 HR, 6 R, 11 RBI

I understand Maz is on the field everyday for his outstanding defense (Ex/30) but can any team really carry a player with a .397 OPS?  Selected late (21^st Round) it will be interesting to see how long Babe & Babe sticks with the second basemen, especially with the potentially powerful Jeff Kent waiting in the wings.

Robin Ventura, 1999 – Fullerton Big Trains

.175 / .206 / .206, .412 OPS, 0 HR, 8 R, 5 RBI

Robin Ventura is in a similar position as Mazeroski having been drafted late (24^th) for mainly defensive purposes, but may soon find himself out of starting job because his stick is simply too light.  In 97 AB Ventura has hit just 3 extra base hits, all doubles.

Tony Gwynn, 1987 – Seattle Tax Evaders

.235 / .264 / .259, .524 OPS, 0 HR, 6 R, 7 RBI

In perhaps the worst return on investment of any player drafted, Gwynn has been a bust from the get go.  The Tax Evaders must be second guessing their draft choice for A) choosing 1987 (.370 /.447 / .511) instead of 1994 (.394 / .454 / .568) and B) choosing Gwynn so early.  In ATB VIII using the better 1994 season, Gwynn wasn’t drafted until the middle of Round 19.

Joe Torre, 1966 – Saginaw Slammers

.200 / .245 / .320, .565 OPS, 4 HR, 10 R, 8 RBI

I am pretty sure the Slammers recognized there were better years out there for Torre (1970 & 1971) but the team philosophy was power at all costs.  Torre fit that mold for an 11^th round catcher with his .568 SLG.  In his defense, Torre has hit 4 HR, good enough for 4^th among catchers, and is 4^th in shutting down the running game, but the rest of his stats are terrible.  

Jose Reyes, 2006 – Planet 10

.268 / .294 / .289, .583 OPS, 0 HR, 16 R, 8 RBI

If there is one thing long time ATB’ers know to stay away from its low average batters with minimal walk rates.  Of all players drafted for ATB IX, Reyes was in the bottom 13% in terms of Walks per Plate Appearance and when adding in the fact that he’s batting “just” .300 (235^th of 281 batters) his name on this list is not all that surprising.  I am guessing Planet 10 knew this as well since he was drafted in the 28^th round, and taken 19 rounds after the team’s 1^st choice at shortstop – Nomar Garciaparra.

This is probably a good place to mention that the ‘real-life’ league average batting lines and pitching lines are

.331 AVG, .415 OBP, .559 SLG

2.01 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 6.5 K/9

Honorable Mentions

Roberto Alomar, 1999 – Fullerton Big Trains (.207 AVG)

Craig Biggio, 1998 – Ridgewood Houdini’s (.288 OBP, .285 SLG)

David Wright, 2005 – Santa Cruz Honking Seals (.575 OPS)

10/17 - Week 2 - Making Statements

Long time ATB regulars, Mike Smitko and Justin Petronzi, each made strong statements this week about who is to be crowned ATB king.  Going a combined 20-7, and outscoring their opponents by 55 runs, both the CosaNostra Deliverators and Rockaway Sleep Deprived Insomniacs forged their way into first place after roughly one month of play.  On the season the two rivals are ranked one-two in run differential, and each feature a balanced attack through high powered offenses and very good rotations. 

The key to the Deliverators attack is their powerful 1-3 batters, each with excellent on-base percentages ranging from .389 to .424.  “Gladiator” Pete Browning, Wade Boggs, and Shoeless Joe Jackson may not have the power to match up against several other teams, but the three in tandem are a force to be reckoned with.  Browning is batting .360 with 18 Stolen Bases and 16 Runs Scored; Boggs is batting .299 with a on base percentage hovering around .390; and Jackson is the catalyst batting .351 with 8 doubles and 20 runs scored.   Behind these three several players of opportunity who drive in runs – Jim Edmonds (5 HR, 13 RBI), Travis Hafner (4 HR, 11 RBI), Darren Daulton (4 HR, 8 RBI in a platoon with Javy Lopez), and Nap Lajoie (10 XBH, 16 RBI) stack up against almost any lineup.

The success of their pitching rotation starts with Pedro Martinez (2.96 ERA, 49 K) but several lesser-known pitchers are driving the overall success for CosaNostra.  Silver King (2.92 ERA), Russ Ford (4-1, 1.73 ERA), and Derek Lowe (1.90) are all pitching extremely well and the relief corps as a whole are allowing just 28% of their inherited runners to score (league average is 34%).

Rockaway, a team if your recall that had the overall pick in the draft, managed to put together a pretty good rotation - Tommy Bond (3.92 ERA, Monty Stratton (4.28 ERA), Ted Lyons (3.30 ERA), and Guy Hecker (1.29 ERA) are all consistent, but the key to this team’s pitching success appears to be its bullpen.  Closer Eric Gagne has been un-hittable, giving up just 10 hits in 13 2/3 innings while striking out an incredible 28 batters.  Gabe White (13 IP, 11 H, 1 BB, 11 K), Pat Jarvis (14.2 IP, 12 H, 6 K), Eddie Plank (11.2 IP, 1.54 ERA), and to a certain extent Takashi Saito (12 IP, 17 K, but 18 H) are all feared and together can shut down the late innings of a game, as evidenced by a team record of 14-0 when leading after 7 innings.

Their offense may be the best in the game considering the ballpark they play in (Skydome):

1) Ty Cobb -        .458 / .536 / .597, 15 SB, 21 R

2) King Kelly -     .390 OBP, 14 R

3) Arky Vaughan -   .301 / .383 / .484, 11 2B, 21 RBI

4) Dan Brouthers -  .310 / .367 / .494

5) Reggie Jackson - .313 / .371 / .672, 5 HR, 16 R, 17 RBI

6) Ed Delahanty -   .368 OBP, 9 2B

7) Jim Thome -       8 HR, 19 RBI

8) Tommy Holmes -   .391 / .434 / .551

9) Lou Whitaker -   .713 OPS vs. second base average of .655

Elsewhere, in the Union League Babe & Babe (8-4) and the Ridgewood Houdini’s (8-3) had great weeks.  In 12 games, Albert Pujols and Babe Ruth combined to hit 11 HR 26 RBI for the B&B Squad, while player of the week Kevin Brown picked up three wins and closer Bruce Sutter was perfect in 4 of his save opportunities.  The Houdini's won well and won often thanks to 3 wins from Christy Mathewson, a 2.35 ERA in 3 starts from Roy Halladay and Brett Saberhagen, and a monster 47 at bats from George Brett - .368 / .510 / .936, 6 HR, 14 R, 15 RBI.

Over in the Federal League, the NY Blues (8-4) and Dyersville Black Sox (9-4) were other standouts.  The former batted .298 / .364 / .492 scoring 78 runs and the latter bested them by 2, scoring 80 thanks to a line of .310 / .358 / .468.

It's too early to worry about playoff slots just yet, but the rest of the Federal Leaguers should take notice that only two teams have records better than .500 and the rest of the division is already at least 4.5 games back. 

Finally for this week, it is time to recognize a team that is in trouble.  Art Vandalay is likely doomed, and I can say this because I haven’t heard from the owner since the middle of the draft.  There may be a reason why he bailed – he’s compiled a team with the worst ERA by far (6.01), which coupled with a team batting average of .243 makes Vandalay historically significant for less than positive reasons. 

*******

5 Thoughts While My Daughter Falls Asleep

1. The ATB world has been turned upside down on the basepaths.  Stolen bases are at the highest levels in recent memory with only three teams on pace for the less than 100.  Last year there was a stolen base every 47 At Bats, this year it's every 34.

2. Hank Aaron (Saginaw Slammers) has typically been an ATB bust of the highest magnitude.  Two different years have been used ('59 and '71) but he has never looked like the Hall of Famer he is.  This year however, and perhaps it is the Baker Bowl (and if you haven't, please check out the ballparks page to see what your stadium looks like), he's 2nd in home runs and batting over .300.  Good for you Hank.

3. The 1800s players are making a decent enough show of it.  12 batters have had 60 Plate Appearances so far, and 5 have hurt their teams.  For pitchers, it is the opposite with 6 of 10 not working out to date:

4. The great Walter Johnson (Fullerton Big Trains) may be in hell.  In real life he played for teams with a combined record of just 1559-1609 (.492 Wpct) but yet had a stellar 417-279 record himself.  His ATB team is struggling right now, last in the Federal League at 10-16 and with the second worst offense to boot.  Yet, he perseveres in sim life too:  4-2, 2.54 ERA, 49.2 IP, 36 H.

5. During the draft the race for the most Home Runs was won by the NY Blues over the Slammers 574 to 568.  To put those numbers into perspective, the average ATB team has 442 Real Life home runs and the Staten Island Dumpers have just 327.  Despite playing in less of a home run hitters park (but still, it is Coors Field) the NY Blues hold a slight edge in team home runs 49-42. 

10/10 - Week 1 is Done

Who said owner experience matters in ATB?  After Week 1 there are surprises abound, at least if you subscribe to the theory that in order to win the game, you need to know the game.  Returning ATB'ers have a combined record of just 60-60 and 3 of the top 5 teams in terms of standings are owned by rookies.

In the Union League the Absurdville Madness stormed out to a an 8-3 start before dropping 3 of their next 4.  A true small ball team, with 46 Stolen Bases and just 6 home runs to date, they find themselves in the upper half of the league in terms of runs scored.  Maury Wills is leading the team in bags swiped with 11, and Ricky Henderson (8) and Paul Molitor (6) are 2nd and 3rd on the team respectively.  Perhaps the bigger surprise is their starting pitching which is fairing very well.  In 'real life' the names Sandy Koufax, Jim Palmer, Carl Hubbell, and Vida Blue evoke memories of all-time greats.  In ATB they represent some of the worst underachievers we have ever seen and yet the four of them have a combined ERA of 2.99.

Another ATB first time team is that of Planet 10.  In the midst of a 4-game winning streak they now sit tied atop of the UL with a 9-4 record.  Their number one starter, Jack Chesbro, has been stellar, holding opponents to just 17 hits in 26 innings with a 0.69 ERA en route to an undefeated record in three starts.  The offense has been led by a trio of modern day players and a Negro Leaguer.  With superb outfield defense, Oscar Charleston (.362 / .367 / .569, 3 HR, 11 RBI) leads the team in Runs Created while Barry Bonds, Brian McCann, and Nomar Garciaparra have hit 5 HR and driven in 16 in the early goings of the season.

The Staten Island Dumpers are likely the best team after the first week of play. They are just one game behind the County Wicklow Fighting Shillelaghs who own the leagues best record, and have the best run differential in the game.  This, despite a intense brawl with the Manetheren Red Eagles on April 12 that cost them their 2nd and 3rd starters for approximately 3 - 4 weeks.  As best can be discerned, which is difficult since the players are refusing to speak, starting pitcher Al Orth drilled Manetheren's second batter of the game, Hughie Jennings.  Benches cleared, and Orth was not only ejected from the game but suffered a horrible month long injury as well. To add to the insanity, one of the players off the Dumpers bench was Kid Nichols who also took a beating, and is out almost three weeks. 

Not lost during the sim was the Red Eagles propensity for violence.  Just 6 days later, this time against the Ridgewood Houdini's, the Manetheren squad was in another brawl.  In a tie game heading to the bottom of the eighth, the home Red Eagles stroked back to back singles to open the inning.  Houdini reliever Kent Tekulve then lost control of fastball and plunked second basemen Davey Johnson.  Johnson didn't take too kindly and charged the mound - benches cleared for the second time in a week and this time the casualties were on the Red Eagles side.  Reliever JJ Putz is out 17 days, and back up outfielder Jimmy Sheckard 11 days.  Why Johnson thought Tekulve would intentionally hit him to load the bases with nobody out in a late inning tie game is beyond all comprehension

Over in the Federal League, the aforementioned Fighting Shillelaghs have the best record at 10-5.  They were a great team during the exhibition season and didn't lose a step in starting the season.  Teddy Higuera (2.66 ERA), Cliff Melton (1.44), and Chris Carpenter (3.20) have all been well above league average while outfielder Sherry Magee was a player of the week candidate.

The highest scoring offense belongs to the second place NY Blues.  They are scoring 5.2 runs per game thanks to a league leading 25 HR and .440 team slugging percentage.  This coupled with above average hitting (.276) makes them a force.  Of course, they play their home games in Coors field which has it's downside - Bob Gibson, Ed Reulbach, and Jack Pfiester each have ERA's above 6.50.

**********

Being the first week wanted to make sure everyone knew what reports/fun stuff is out there.  Each week the ATB home page will have a few custom reports.  Directly below the write-up are four of them:

The Good, The Great, and the Ugly - my vote for the current best and worst players in the game.

Batters and Pitchers of the Week - Weekly scorecard for the Players of the Week.

Power Alley - Team rankings based upon W-L record and Pythagorean Record (Runs Scored and Runs Against)

Top Players - best players at each position.

There are also 4 reports listed on the top left of the home page

• Great Individual Feats (3 HR Games, 6+ RBI Games, 12K+ games, etc)

• RSAA Leaders (Pitcher rankings by position)

• AOPSAP Leaders (Batter rankings by position)

• Standings Charts (Graph of the standings)

******

Oh, and curious as to what was in the minds of our owners as they named their teams?

Absurdville Madness
Art Vandalay
Babe & Babe
CosaNostra Deliverators
County Wicklow Fighting Shillelaghs
Dyersville Black Sox
Fullerton Big Trains
Manetheren Red Eagles
New York Blues (maybe)
Planet 10
Ridgewood Houdinis
Rockaway Slp Dprv Insomniacs
Saginaw Slammers
Santa Cruz Honking Seals
Seattle Tax Evaders
Staten Island Dumpers

10/05 - Opening Weekend

You can't sit on a lead and run a few plays into the line and just kill the clock.  You've got to throw the ball over the goddamn plate and give the other man his chance.  That's why baseball is the greatest game of them all.  ~Earl Weaver

 

Baseball is a harbor, a seclusion from failure that really matters, a playful utopia in which virtuosity can be savored to the third decimal place of a batting average.  ~Mark Kramer 

Opening day is upon us and those two quotes are a fitting introduction to ATB IX.  We’re in the midst of football season and yet 16 of us “sports” fans found the time to spend three weeks in front of a message board drafting fantasy baseball players – and not just any players, literally from a cast of 20,000 or more options.  The kind folks at DMB allow us to participate in what I can only describe as the ultimate fantasy baseball format, and hopefully ATB lives up to expectations.

The second quote I relate to wholeheartedly, having completed rankings of every single player who ever lived just for the purpose of ATB.  I can attest I have most assuredly avoided batters because the 3^rd decimal place of his batting average wasn’t up to snuff.  I know some of you are the same way. 

But really I hope we get past the numbers behind ATB and use our imaginations.  At lunch one-day this past mid September a few colleagues of mine, one of which participates in ATB, were discussing the 2001 World Series, and game 7 specifically.  As a Yankee fan I felt acid in the pit of my stomach at the thought, but when we got back to our desks we still forced ourselves to go to basebaball-reference.com and look at the box score. 

One simple box score, 6-years old, lent us 20 or more minutes of discussion about the fateful game, and specifically the dreadful 9^th inning.  In front of us is the prospect of 2,500 box scores.

Breaking News

Several teams break camp today announcing their starting rotations, and 2007 opening day is to be kicked off with some of the best match-ups in the history of the sport.

Planet 10 @ Babe & Babe

Jack Chesbro (41-12, 1.82 ERA, probable) vs.  Johan Santana (20-6, 2.61 ERA, probable)

Staten Island Dumpers @ Ridgewood Houdini’s

Pete Alexander (31-10, 1.22 ERA) vs. Christy Mathewson (31-9, 1.28 ERA, probable)

Absurdville Madness @ 89 Smitko’s

Sandy Koufax (27-9, 1.73 ERA) vs.  Pedro Martinez (18-6, 1.74 ERA)

Manetheren Red Eagles @ Art Vandalay

Cy Blanton (18-13, 2.58 ERA)  @ Dwight Gooden (24-4, 1.53 ERA)

Rockaway Sleep Deprived Insomniacs @ Seattle Tax Evaders

Harry Brecheen 20-7, 2.24 ERA vs. Lefty Gomez (21-9, 3.67 ERA, probable)

NY Blues @ Brad Peterson

Bob Gibson (15-2, 1.75 ERA) vs. Addie Joss (24-11, 1.16 ERA, probable) 

County Wicklow Fighting Shillelaghs @ Saginaw Slammers

Greg Maddux (19-2, 1.63 ERA) vs. Babe Adams (17-10, 1.98 ERA) 

Fullerton Big Trains @ Dyersville Black Sox

Walter Johnson (36-7, 1.14 ERA)  vs. Randy Johnson (16-14, 2.60 ERA)

09/11 - Greatest Pitching Staff of All time

I am out of time to look at this in depth, but wanted follow up on last week's post on the best team offense since 1901. And ff course, one can't talk best offenses without following up on the best pitching staffs.  For long time ATB'ers it will come as no surprise that the 1906 Cubs (115-37), with an amazing rotation of Mordecai Brown, Jack Pfiester, Carl Lundgren, Ed Ruelbach, plus Orval Overall and and Jack Taylor, get the nod for best staff of all time.  In early days of ATB, three-quarters of these starters were 1st round picks, each dominating the league like virtually no other.  Times have changed, ATB has switched to new software which is a bit unkind to early 1900's pitchers, but their legacy's live on.

Before getting to their stats we need to make the same caveat as we did with the batters.  If using team ERA versus League Average ERA as a judge for best pitching staff, a host of 1800's clubs top the list.  In one of the first years we have recorded stats, 1876, the St. Louis Brown Stockings had a team ERA of 1.22, aided in part by 268 team errors which kept ERA's very low.  268 errors happen to the best in the league at the time, but it still works out to be a whopping 4 per game.  So, while the team ERA was 1.22 the Brown Stockings were giving up over three and a half runs per game.  Here was their rotation and relief corps:

George Bradley

Not a typo of course.  Back in the early days of organized baseball a team had just one pitcher, and while George Bradley was one of the best, his accomplishments alone can not give the Brown Stockings the best staff of all time. 

Before listing the '06 Cubs stats, here is the best team ERA's by decade:

Note:  The post is titled Best Pitching staffs, but of course team defense is tightly intertwined with good pitching.

Regular Pitchers for the 1906 Cubs:

Player           ERA   W  L SV  CG   IP     H   BB   SO  ERA+
Mordecai Brown  1.04  26  6  3  27  277.3  198  61  144  253
Jack Pfiester   1.51  20  8  0  20  250.7  173  63  153  174
Carl Lundgren   2.21  17  6  2  21  207.7  160  89  103  119
Ed Reulbach     1.65  19  4  3  20  218.0  129  92   94  159
Jack Taylor     1.83  12  3  0  15  147.3  116  39   34  143
Orval Overall   1.88  12  3  1  13  144.0  116  51   94  140
 

Keep in mind that the last column, ERA+, includes an adjustments for both league and park, and the Cubs overall team score of 150 has never been approached by another team, save the Cubs squads of '05, '06, '07, and '09.  With a 5 year run as this team had during the latter part of the first decade of the 20th century, they are easily the best pitching staff in the history of baseball.  Imagine, the worst pitcher on the staff going 17-6 with a 2.21 ERA.

For the record, the Cubs ERA+ from 1905 through 1909:

145

150

144

110

146

The Cubs of this period also had the famous "Tinker to Evers to Chance" double play combination.  Below is a 1906 Cubs Postcard published by Suhling & Koehn, featuring a photo by F.P. Burke.

09/10 - T-minus 7 Days

The Draft will begin promptly at 9:00 AM NEXT MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 17.  Before getting into mechanics, please, go to the Message Board and register.  If you already have an ID from past leagues, log on prior to draft day and make sure you can still get in.  An owner's turn will be skipped if he simply can't get to the draft board, and didn't notify my of an issue earlier.

How it Works

• There are only two threads in the message board, one for me to accumulate draft picks and one for you to post your picks

• Go to the ATB IX Forum

• The thread titled "DRAFT DAY RESULTS - ALL ROUNDS COMPILED HERE" is where I post draft status.  Please use this thread for reference, so you know who is off the board.

• The thread titled "Owners Make Individual Picks Here" I hope is self explanatory.  You post your pick here, I will re-post it in the first thread.

Each owner is pre-assigned a specific 1/2 hour block of time to make a selection.  If you miss your block of time, you are skipped, and the next owner is allowed to make a selection once his 1/2 hour block of time has started.  The skipped owner can go back and make the missed selection at any time thereafter.

The goal is not to adhere to these blocks of time, rather, the goal is to get through the draft as quickly as possible.  The 1/2 hour increments are only there to enforce that slow owners make their picks in a timely fashion.  We all have jobs, well, I think we do anyway, and some of us have family - so it is expected that at certain times we can't make our allotted time schedules.  This is OK - just let me know ahead of time and we will make alternative arrangements. 

In general, the draft runs from 8 AM to 10 PM each weekday, with the exceptions being a later start on Monday morning, and an earlier finish on Friday evenings.  For those who can't make early picks (for example, Kevin Crowley is up at 8 AM on Tuesday) - you can email me your pick the night before.

Owners can also submit lists to me, in order of preference, and I will post a pick for them if they wish.  This is not recommended, but can be accommodated.

Here is the schedule for next Monday and Tuesday.  In the hopes that we go quickly, I will publish Wednesday and Thursday schedules after the draft begins.

And remember - quicker is better, we can draft all night long if the next owner up continues to make a selection!

09/05 - The Best Offense

A great offense is undoubtedly one that scores more runs than the competition.  In the same vein, an argument can be made that the best offense is one that has had the widest margin of runs scored versus the league average.  Looking at historical teams in this manner we find a host of 1800's teams - the top 23 of all time to be exact, are all from 1891 or previously.  This is due to the relative lack of competition during the era, in extreme cases having terrible teams fold just weeks into the season.

For example, the 1875 Boston Red Sox scored 155% more runs than the league average, compiling a whopping 71-8 (.899 Wpct) record along the way.  You'll notice that this team played only 79 games, which while more than a typical full season at the time, is much less than the number of games played in modern times.  Much of the competition was awful - The Keokuk Westerns played just 13 games; the Philadelphia Centennials just 14; the St. Louis Red Stockings just 19; the Washington Nationals just 28; the Brooklyn Atlantics just 44; and the New Haven Elm City's just 47.   These teams had abysmal records, with the best of them having a .211 Winning Percentage (4-15) and as a group won just 21 of 165 contests, which yields a horrific .127 Winning Percentage.  Its no wonder the Boston Red Sox were able to destroy their competition, scoring 10.1 runs per game while their pitchers gave up just 4.2.

Should we consider the '75 Red Sox to have the best offense ever?  Probably not. 

Another tool we can use is a sophisticated formula developed by Bill James that measures competitive balance for each decade throughout baseball history.  I don't understand the math, but James has done enough in the field of Sabermetrics that he doesn't have to explain his stuff to us.  Here is "Index of Competitive Balance" by decade, the higher the number the more competitive:

1870s - 21%

1880s - 24%

1890s - 27%

1900s - 30%

1910s - 36%

1920s - 34%

1930s - 31%

1940s - 34%

1950s - 34%

1960s - 40%

1970s - 45%

1980s - 56%

1990s - 57%

The book (The New Bill James Historical Abstract) the above data is taken from was published in 2001, so we don't have an exact number of what the 2000s will bring, but it is safe to say it will be the most competitive on record.

I am not sure where our cut-off should be (is 27% more meaningful than 30%?), but lets make in 1901, or the time when the two league format re-formed and stuck for good.  Previously the competition was not up to snuff, the three least competitive decades on record.

Who is best of modern times?

The 1902 Pittsburg Pirates, managed by future Hall of Famer and then-current player Fred Clarke, were a juggernaut, finishing the season with a stellar 103-36 record (.741 Wpct, 2nd best in post 1900 history) and claimed first place by 27.5 games.  They scored 775 runs, 142 more than the second best Reds, and 39% more than the league average.  Their home games were played in Exposition Park - a monster with 400 ft foul lines and with dead center standing 450 ft away from home plate. 

While we don't have lineup order data, this is a likely representation of the most common (in a league that hit .259 / .313 / .319, 100 OPS+):

P     Player          G  AB  R    H 2B 3B HR RBI  AVG  OBP  SLG OPS+
3B Tommy Leach      135 514  97 143 14 22  6  85 .278 .341 .426 132
OF Fred Clarke      113 459 103 145 27 14  2  53 .316 .401 .449 157
OF Honus Wagner     136 534 105 176 30 16  3  91 .330 .394 .463 159
OF Ginger Beaumont  130 541 100 193 21  6  0  67 .357 .404 .418 149
1B Kitty Bransfield 102 413  49 126 21  8  0  69 .305 .336 .395 121
2B Claude Ritchey   115 405  54 112 13  1  2  55 .277 .370 .328 112
SS Wid Conroy        99 365  55  89 10  6  1  47 .244 .299 .312  85
C  Harry Smith       50 185  14  35  4  1  0  12 .189 .211 .222  31
 

Fred Clarke and Honus Wagner are Hall of Famer's; Tommy Leach and Ginger Beaumont would have been perennial All-Stars had the mid-season classic been played during the time; and Claude Ritchey and Kitty Bransfield were above average and well above average respectively in 1902.

Clarke also shuffled his bench extremely effectively.  The glaring weak spot on offense was the defensive minded catcher, Harry Smith, who was anemic at the plate.  But he was one of three catchers in a platoon-type situation that had 312 At Bats (to Smith's 185) coming from about league average hitters, and well above league average hitters for catchers of the age.  Jack O'Conner batted .294 / .306 / .341 (96 OPS+) and Chief Zimmer, and aging star from the 1890's, had a good for the time on-base percentage of .338.

The other below average offensive player was the shortstop Wid Conroy.  Wagner of course, was a shortstop by design, and 1902 was the last year he played more games elsewhere until his 40's.  This year however, the Flying Dutchman did play over 40 games at short which helped mitigate the weak stick of Conroy.  When Wagner was manning the infield, his outfielder replacements were very good:

P     Player         G  AB  R  H 2B 3B HR RBI  AVG  OBP  SLG OPS+
OF    Lefty Davis   59 232 52 65  7  3  0  20 .280 .377 .336  116
2B/OF Jimmy Burke   60 203 24 60 12  2  0  26 .296 .359 .374  122
OF    Jimmy Sebring 19  80 15 26  4  4  0  15 .325 .365 .475  154

Even starting pitcher Jesse Tannehill had luck with the bat, so good in fact, he was called upon to pinch hit or play the outfield in 16 games.  For the year, he batted .291 / .348 / .365, good enough for a 116 OPS+ score.

There is a cloud of suspicion over the greatness of the 1902 Pirate club.  It is important to remember that the American League formed in 1901, and league president Ban Johnson wooed 45 of the best National League players over to his side, with none of them coming from the Pirate franchise.  This left the team in great shape to soundly beat their NL competition.  There is even speculation of how hard they had to try down the stretch, from the Baseball Library:

The Pirates were indeed dominant, but their competition was a joke. Never was it more obvious than on the last day of the season, when the Pirates set a major-league record with their 103rd win -- with more than a little help from the opposing Cincinnati Reds. The Reds -- who had hoped to cancel the game on the grounds that the rain-soaked field was unplayable -- spent the day switching positions at whim and generally clowning around. One batter came to the plate smoking a cigarette. With first baseman Jake Beckley on the mound, pitcher Rube Vickers took his turn behind the plate and promptly set a major-league record with six passed balls. As each sailed to the backstop, Vickers stood and slowly blew his nose.

With this in mind, I present a summary of the teams with the best offenses by decade:

There are of course, several ways to dissect the data, one of the being paying more attention the individual players that comprise a lineup instead of a team's absolute runs scored.  You would be hard pressed to find a better every day lineup than the 1927 or 1931 Yankees.  Also, please note the 1996 Rockies were mostly good because of their park, which is evidenced by a team 100 OPS+ rate despite a whopping 961 Runs Scored.

A handful of the players referenced above are ATB regulars, and here are their statistics from last year:

• Lou Gehrig, 1927 - .279 / .370 / .569, 45 HR, 110 R, 115 RBI (not 1931)

• Joe Morgan, 1976 - .227 / .351 / .417, 25 HR, 116 R, 95 RBI

• Robin Yount,1982 - .297 / .325 / .468, 56 EBH

• Pete Rose,  1965 - .253 / .279 / .323 in 158 AB

A few others have been drafted in prior years, but not in ATB VIII:

• Frank Baker, 1913.  His 1912 year was chosen.

• Ben Chapman, 1931.  No season of his was used.

More have had other seasons drafted in ATB, but never the one referenced above:

• Honus Wagner, 1902.    1908 has been used previously.

• Eddie Collins, 1913.   1909 and 1914 have been used previously.

• Babe Ruth, 1927/31.    1920 and 1921 have been used previously.

• Stan Musial, 1942.     1948 has been used previously.

• Ted Williams, 1948.    1941 has been used previously.

• Frank Robinson, 1965.  1966 and 1951 have been used previously.

• George Foster, 1976.   1977 has been used previously.

• Ellis Burks, 1996.     2000 has been used previously.

• David Ortiz, 2003.     2004 and 2005 have been used previously.

• Manny Ramirez, 2003.   2000 and 2002 have been used previously.

Finally, most of these great seasons on great offenses have never been tried in ATB history, perhaps this is the year:

• Ginger Beaumont, 1902

• Fred Clarke, 1902

• Earl Coombs, 1927

• Cecil Cooper, 1982

• Walt Dropo, 1950

• Ken Griffey, Sr., 1976

• Deron Johnson, 1965

• Tommy Leach, 1902

• Snuffy McInnis, 1913

• Bill Mueller, 2003

• Bob Muesel, 1927

• Trot Nixon, 2003

• Enos Slaughter, 1942

• Gorman Thomas, 1982

9/4 - Player Profile:  Lefty Grove

“Lefty Grove could throw a lamb chop past a wolf.” …Arthur Baer   Lefty Grove is likely the greatest left-handed pitcher of all time, and can arguably be called the greatest overall pitcher in the history of the sport.  Consider that his ERA, for his career, was 48% better than the league average (adjusting for park) – the best mark of any pitcher who is no longer active. Better than Walter Johnson.  Better than Cy Young.  Better than Grover Alexander, Addie Joss, 3-Finger Brown, Sandy Koufax, and scores of other all time greats.   Grove had a late start to his major league career, not being sold to the majors until his was 25.  It is important to remember that the minor leagues of his time were not owned and operated by major league clubs; instead, they were almost entirely independent of the American and National Leagues.  In cities where a major league team did not exist, the minor league team won the hearts of the fans and across America many followed these independent teams just as fervently  as any major league one.   This was true in Grove’s case as well.  He played exceptionally for the Baltimore Orioles from 1920-1924, and owner Jack Dunn refused to part with his talented young lefty for years.  Finally, in 1925 Dunn sold him to the Philadelphia Athletics for a then-record $100,500.  While with Baltimore, Grove compiled a record of 97 wins against just 34 losses, leading the International League in strikeouts each year, and with his last season being an astounding 27-6 campaign.

His best season in the majors was undoubtedly 1930 when he went 31-4 with a 2.06 ERA; this in a league where the average ERA was 4.51 and in a park that favored batters.  He won back to back pitching triple crowns in ’30 and ’31, won the MVP in ’31, led the league in strikeouts 9 times (finished in the top ten in 12 of 13 seasons after his rookie campaign), and routinely had the best K-BB ratio of virtually each season.  He also had eight 20-win seasons and twice struck out the side on 9 pitches.

Lefty Grove’s legacy is also one of wrath, as also led the league in "shredded uniforms, kicked buckets, ripped-apart lockers, and alienated teammates."  While his skills are perhaps unrivaled in the history of sport, Grove was a bitter angry player, prone to bouts of rage.  "Opposing teams' baseball fans would flock to the ballpark and "boo" and curse Lefty because of his reputation of throwing at opposing batters heads”, he complained his teammates were lousy players, and even at times upset his peaceful and stoic manager, Connie Mack. 

The most famous of these incidents happened in 1931 when Grove was pitching for his 17^th consecutive win which would have tied an American League record.  Teammate and Right Fielder, Al Simmons, took this day off to see a physician and his replacement misplayed a ball which led to the only run being scored in the game.  Grove never forgave him, "After I lost that game, I came back and won six or seven in a row," Grove recalled years later, still fuming. "I would have had 24 if Simmons had been out there where he belonged."

Grove was elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1947 with 76.4% of the vote.

In ATB VIII last season, Grove was the #2 pitcher on the PC-led Bayou Big City Oil squad.  He went 10-11, 5.09 ERA, 179 IP, 202 H, 69 BB, 144 K.  He was drafted in the 3rd round, 44th overall.

CAREER STATISTICS - LEFTY GROVE Year Ag Tm    W   L  GS CG  SV   IP     H   HR  BB    SO HBP  ERA  WHIP 1925 25 PHA  10  12  18   5  1  197    207  11  131  116   5  4.75  1.72 1926 26 PHA  13  13  33  20  6  258    227   6  101  194   6  2.51  1.27 1927 27 PHA  20  13  28  14  9  262.3  251   6   79  174   2  3.19  1.26 1928 28 PHA  24   8  31  24  4  261.7  228  10   64  183   1  2.58  1.12 1929 29 PHA  20   6  37  19  4  275.3  278   8   81  170   3  2.81  1.30 1930 30 PHA  28   5  32  22  9  291    273   8   60  209   5  2.54  1.14 1931 31 PHA  31   4  30  27  5  288.7  249  10   62  175   1  2.06  1.08 1932 32 PHA  25  10  30  27  7  291.7  269  13   79  188   1  2.84  1.19 1933 33 PHA  24   8  28  21  6  275.3  280  12   83  114   4  3.20  1.32 1934 34 BOS   8   8  12   5  0  109.3  149   5   32   43   1  6.50  1.66 1935 35 BOS  20  12  30  23  1  273    269   6   65  121   3  2.70  1.22 1936 36 BOS  17  12  30  22  2  253.3  237  14   65  130   4  2.81  1.19 1937 37 BOS  17   9  32  21  0  262    269   9   83  153   1  3.02  1.34 1938 38 BOS  14   4  21  12  1  163.7  169   8   52   99   1  3.08  1.35 1939 39 BOS  15   4  23  17  0  191    180   8   58   81   1  2.54  1.25 1940 40 BOS   7   6  21   9  0  153.3  159  20   50   62   1  3.99  1.36 1941 41 BOS   7   7  21  10  0  134    155   8   42   54   2  4.37  1.47 CAREER      300 141 457 298 55 3940.7 3849 162 1187 2266  42  3.06  1.28

8/31 - Player Profile:  Tris Speaker

To the casual baseball fan, Tris Speaker is perhaps the most underrated player with a plaque hanging in Cooperstown's Baseball Hall Of Fame.  Overshadowed for much of his career by the popular and vocal Ty Cobb, Speaker also had his best seasons during a time when Babe Ruth was the king of Baseball.  In truth, Speaker was an awesome Centerfielder who hit for average, power and was considered the best fielding outfielder of his time.  He is: 6th all time in career batting average (.345) 11th in Runs Created (2154) 12th in OBP (.428) 16th in OPS+ (158) 1st in Doubles (792) Speaker's best season was probably 1912 when he won the Chalmers Award (MVP back in the day) and led the Braves to a World Series victory over John McGraw's NY Giants (the famous $30,000 Snograss Muff in game 8).  On the season he batted .383 / .464 / .567 with 53 2B, 10 3B, 52 SB, and 136 R.  For his career Speaker batted .380 or better and incredible 5 times and his OBP dipped below .400 only three times in 19 seasons as a regular. Speaker, a left handed thrower and batter, was naturally born right-handed but switched when he was very young after breaking his right arm in a horse accident.  Forced to play left-handed, he

became so comfortable with it that he decided never to switch back.  His career was almost ruined before it started when, in college at the Fort Worth Polytechnic Institute, he hurt his arm in a football accident so badly the doctor recommended amputation as the treatment.  He made the right decision in refusing.

By the time 1915 was over, Speaker had batted "just" .322, and as was common during this time period, was enough to upset the Red Sox president, Joe Lannin.  Lannin decided to cut Speaker's salary by 40% but the center fielder refused and was subsequently traded to Cleveland.  The move worked, instead of a pay cut down to $9,000 Speaker's new team paid him a record salary of $40,000.

The trade was one of the worst in Red Sox history.  In return for Speaker, Lannin landed pitcher Sam Jones, third basemen Fred Thomas, and cash considerations (50K).  Speaker would hit .354 / .444 /.520 over the next 11 seasons with the Indians and became a very good Player/Manager from 1919-1926, winning a World Series and finishing in the top half of the division in 5 of 8 seasons.

After retirement at the age of 40 in 1928, Speaker stayed close the game for only a few years before turning his interests to the wholesale liquor business, and was even the chairman of Cleveland's Boxing Commission for a time. But in 1947 he returned to his roots, advising the Indians in various capacities until his death 11 years later.  Ty Cobb said that Speaker was the best player he ever played against.

He was immortalized in the poem "Lineup for Yesterday" by Ogden Nash:

S is for Speaker

Swift center-field tender;

When the ball saw him coming

It yelled "I surrender."

In ATB VIII last season, Speaker was the #3 hitter on the World Series bound Franklin Lakes Pillpoppers squad led by Justin P.  He batted .359 / .425 / .481, hit 47 doubles, and scored 104 times.  He was drafted 48th overall (1st pick of 4th Round).

CAREER STATISTICS - TRIS SPEAKER Year Ag Tm     G    AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  SB  CS   BA  OBP  SLG 1907 19 BOS    7    19    0    3   0   0   0    1   0     .158 .200 .158 1908 20 BOS   31   116   12   26   2   2   0    9   3     .224 .262 .276 1909 21 BOS  143   544   73  168  26  13   7   77  35     .309 .362 .443 1910 22 BOS  141   538   92  183  20  14   7   65  35     .340 .404 .468 1911 23 BOS  141   500   88  167  34  13   8   70  25     .334 .418 .502 1912 24 BOS  153   580  136  222  53  12  10   90  52     .383 .464 .567 1913 25 BOS  141   520   94  189  35  22   3   71  46     .363 .441 .533 1914 26 BOS  158   571  101  193  46  18   4   90  42  29 .338 .423 .503 1915 27 BOS  150   547  108  176  25  12   0   69  29  25 .322 .416 .411 1916 28 CLE  151   546  102  211  41   8   2   79  35  27 .386 .470 .502 1917 29 CLE  142   523   90  184  42  11   2   60  30     .352 .432 .486 1918 30 CLE  127   471   73  150  33  11   0   61  27     .318 .403 .435 1919 31 CLE  134   494   83  146  38  12   2   63  15     .296 .395 .433 1920 32 CLE  150   552  137  214  50  11   8  107  10  13 .388 .483 .562 1921 33 CLE  132   506  107  183  52  14   3   75   2   4 .362 .439 .538 1922 34 CLE  131   426   85  161  48   8  11   71   8   3 .378 .474 .606 1923 35 CLE  150   574  133  218  59  11  17  130   8   9 .380 .469 .610 1924 36 CLE  135   486   94  167  36   9   9   65   5   7 .344 .432 .510 1925 37 CLE  117   429   79  167  35   5  12   87   5   2 .389 .479 .578 1926 38 CLE  150   539   96  164  52   8   7   86   6   1 .304 .408 .469 1927 39 WSH  141   523   71  171  43   6   2   73   9   8 .327 .395 .444 1928 40 PHA   64   191   28   51  22   2   3   30   5   1 .267 .310 .450 CAREER      2789 10195 1882 3514 792 222 117 1529 432 129 .345 .428 .500

9/3 - Remember the Era!

Eras are by far the most important concept to understand in order to put forth a successful ATB campaign.  Eras (not Earned Run Average, but DMB's name for the statistical average of a given League and Year) put a player's story in context, and most importantly from a gaming standpoint, are required to make a realistic baseball simulation. From the DMB  help sections:

It is not possible to play realistic games among teams of different eras without adjusting for these changing playing conditions. For example, without these adjustments, a 1912 team would have almost no chance of beating a 1984 team because it would make two to three times as many errors. Are the 1984 fielders really that much better? Of course not. They just have the advantage of using modern gloves and playing on artificial turf.

and

DMB uses eras to adjust for these factors. In DMB:

• A .280 hitter in 1968 (when the league batting average was under .250) is a better hitter than someone who hit .280 in 1930 (when the average player batted .300).

• A shortstop making 40 errors in 1912 is a better fielder than a shortstop making 30 errors in 1993.

• A starting pitcher completing 30% of his games in 1984 is more durable (relative to his peers) than someone who completed 50% of his starts in 1920.

• A DH-league pitcher with a 3.30 earned-run average is a better pitcher than someone with a 3.00 ERA in a non-DH league.

From our standpoint, it bears repeating - eras have an impact on every aspect of the game:  Hitting, Pitching, and Fielding.  Each of these need to be taken into consideration when drafting. 

DBM uses several required statistics create "normalized" player records.  DMB uses the league and year, along with the core player stats, to create a "hidden" normalized stat line.  This normalized stat line is what is used to determine the results.  It is "hidden" from users, including commissioners, as it is proprietary to DMB and perhaps more importantly, displaying it would ruin a lot of the fun in playing the games out.

I am not going to go into era adjustments for fielding since the About DMB section tells you how to precisely calculate Fielding Error rates.  Instead I'll focus on batting and pitching.  First thing's first, the following statistics are required whenever I add a player to the database:

Batting

AB, H, 2B, 3B, HR, HBP, IBB, SH, GDP, SO, SB, CS

Pitching

BF, HR, HBP, IBB, IP, H, HR, HBP, BB, SO

This is critical.  Hopefully you noticed that R, RBI, W, L, and even ERA are not part of the required stats for DMB to generate the normalized player record.  Instead, it uses more sophisticated stats that can be gleamed from the ones above, such as WHIP, K/BB, K/9, H/9, SLG, AVG, OBP, etc.  This is just to say ignore certain stats when determining which players to draft.

Please note that in the end these stats correlate exactly to what makes a player a good and don't be concerned, for instnace, that ERA isn't a core statistic.   Said another way, if a pitcher strikes out a lot of batters, minimizes his walks and hits against, and makes sure not to give up the long ball - his ERA will be excellent.

Also note, in cases were some of these statistics are not known, DMB uses a built in equation to estimate them for us.

Now that we understand how DMB works, it's time to take a look a some real life era data

This chart depicts the runs scoring environment for the two main leagues in baseball history, the American and National Leagues of course.  There were 5 other leagues throughout history, none lasted more than 10 years (most much less), and the last of these was the Federal league in 1915.

Right now, as we know, we are in the midst of a elevated run scoring environment, although it not as prolific as what was experienced in both leagues during the early 1930's and in the American League in the last 1930's; and of course, nowhere near the levels of the late 1890s.  The lowest runs scoring eras were around 1907-1909, 1917, and 1968. 

And now the key and the only official warning you'll get from me - several great players made a name for themselves in these extreme eras.  1968 is home to Bob Gibson (1.68 ERA) and Denny McLain (31 Wins); 1930 is home Bill Terry (.401 AVG), Hack Wilson (191 RBI); and the 1907-1909 period sports Three Finger Brown (1.31 ERA) and Addie Joss (1.16 ERA).  This is not to say all or even some of these players will not perform, rather it is to say don't expect those insanely low ERA's or high batting averages to translate into our game, and do a little research comparing them to their peers before drafting them.  The goal, really, is to find good batters in low offensive years, and good pitchers in high offensive years.  Two excellent, but crude tools to use are the ERA+ and OPS+ leader boards found Baseball-Reference.com.  I personally like the math aspect, and download the historical "Lahman Database" found at the Baseball Archive, and perform some calculations on my own.

Finally, I will leave you with two more points and two more charts. 

• I literally have no idea how DMB values each season in terms of run scoring.  I would imagine it is much more robust than the chart I used above that simply depicts runs per game, and they in all likelihood the DMB engine gets down to the individual stat level - League Average SLG, OBP, AVG or perhaps even HR Rates.  But for all intents and purposes, unless you have a lot of time on your hands AND are a complete freak, you don't need to get down to this level of detail.

• Don't forget parks.  The era is only part of the normalization process, and DMB also uses proprietary park factors in the process

And the charts - the historical AVG, OBP, SLG and historical WHIP, K/9, and HR/9 for each league.

8/30 - Why the 1800s Players Were Introduced to ATB

(taken from The New Bill James Historical Abstract)

How the Game was Played (1890s)

Dirty. Very, very dirty. The tactics of the 1880’s were aggressive; the tactics of the 1890s were violent. The game of the 80s was crude; the game of the 90s was criminal. The baseball of the 80s had ugly elements; the game of nineties was just ugly.

Players spiked one another. A first baseman would grab the belt of the base runner to hold him back a half-second after the ball was hit. Players tripped one another as they rounded the bases. Fights broke out more days than not. Players shoved umpires, spat on them, and punched them. Fans hurled insults and beer bottles at the players of opposing teams

The great team of the time, and the team responsible for promoting this style of play, was the Baltimore Orioles, the team of John McGraw, Hughie Jennings, and Willie Keeler. Writing about them in the Ultimate Baseball Book, Robert Creamer said that John McGraw “had a genius for making enemies. He had been knocked down in spring training by a rival manager after blocking a player on the basepaths. He did grab base runners’ belts to slow them down as they passed, stood in their way deliberately to make them run around him, stepped on their feet as he took throws at the bag.” McGraw himself recalled a game in which “the other team had a runner on first who started to steal second, but…spiked our first basemen on the foot. Our man retaliated by trying to trip him. He got away, but at second Heinie Reits tried to block him off while Hughie…covered the bag to take the throw and tag him. The runner evaded Reits and jumped feet first at Jennings to drive him away from the bag. Jennings dodged the flying spikes and threw himself bodily at the runner, knocking him flat. In the meantime, the batter hit our catcher on the hands with his bat so he couldn’t throw, and our catcher trod on the umpires feet with his spikes and shoved his big mitt in his face so he couldn’t see the play.

Great fun, huh?

*****************

Honus Wagner was once asked about his greatest trill in baseball. “Well, the greatest thrill I ever got was one time a Giant batter hit a home run. As he ran past me I said, ‘Nice hit’, and he said, ‘Go to hell’.”

Pause

Alright, Honus, why was that your greatest thrill?

I’d been in the league for three years,” said Honus. “And he was the first player to speak to me.”

*****************

In 1883 a Philadelphia zookeeper named Jim Murray introduced a system of relaying scores almost instantly all over the city of Brotherly Love, by means of carrier pigeons. Homing pigeons would be released at the park with the up-to-date scores after each half-inning, and the workers at the zoo would “knew how the inning went before they went out in the field for the next one.” A few fans from other parts of the city heard about this and wanted in on it, so provisions were made for them, too. On some days as many as a half-dozen birds would be released at the end of each frame.

*****************

...In a lot of ways, the baseball of 1876 was, in fact, extremely primitive. A ball was fair if it bounced in fair territory, which effectively required the fielders to cover a larger area. (Ross Barnes hit .429 in the first season of the National League, 1876, by perfecting the “fair-foul bunt” – that is, landing the ball in fair territory so that it would roll foul.)

8/27 - The DMB Manager Profile

Draft Day is just a few weeks away and it is probably time to go over the type of decision each owner will need to make when constructing their lineups.  This can be a daunting task or simple one, depending on how much you feel like manipulating the PC Manager who will actually be "playing" the games.  But keep in mind no matter how you fill out the lineup sheets, the PC manager will ensure the basics are performed on your team on a game by game basis.  For example, they won't allow vacant lineups, tired pitchers to throw under normal circumstances, or try to steal with poorly rated players.  However, the more work you put into your lineup the more the PC Manager will run the team to your liking.

There is a lineup form that is to be filled out prior to the start of the season and to communicate any changes during the season.  What follows is an explanation of how the form relates to the tools within Diamond Mind Baseball.

Rosters

We will run simulations on a weekly basis (15 games at a clip) and lineup changes are made once per week.  Rosters are 30 men deep to allow for back-up players to be readily available to fill in during cases of multiple injuries.  You can draft any combination of batters and pitchers, as long as you have enough if each to complete a basic lineup. 

Rosters can be changed in three ways:

1 - Trades.   Unlimited, but Comish holds veto power in case of any funky business.  Comish has never had to use veto power in 8 ATB seasons.

2 - Free Agent Moves - 5 allowed on the year

3 - DL Moves -  Any player injured is eligible to be placed on the DL, and owners are allowed to replace any player on the DL with a Free Agent.  These moves do not count against the 5 Free Agent moves, and are unlimited.

Pitching Rotation

There are 6 roles to a rotation - Starters, Spot Starters, Mopup, Long Relievers, Setup Relievers, and Closers.  The "About DMB" section of this site goes into the game situations where and when each type of role is used.  What I want to outline now are the choices in terms of number of pitchers that can be used in each role and where you can select Left-handed or Right-handed pitchers.  For instance, it is important to note that you have the choice for LH/RH in both setup and closer roles and I therefore suggest taking advantage of this on draft day.  It is probably too obvious to state, but the game engine will try and force the appropriate righty on righty or lefty on lefty pitcher/batter match-ups based upon how you complete the lineup form.  Here are screen shots of the various sections to be completed:

Lineups and Depth Charts

In addition to the option of using unique lineups depending upon the handedness of the oppositions starting pitcher, the game engine allows for extremely detailed depth charts/bench options.

For each position you can name your back-ups and designate a percentage of time you want them to start. You can even do this based upon the handedness of the starting pitcher.  For example, you can have Don Mattingly back up the starting 1st Basemen 50% of time versus righties, and then also have Orlando Cepeda back up a 35% of the time versus lefties.   Strict platoons and defensive replacements to be used late in games are additional options.

The screen print to the above and right depicts the fact you can also identify the order in which your pinch hitters will be used.

Manager & Player Tendencies

Aside from lineup and rotation construction, owners can also tell the PC manager what style of play is preferred.  From how often the team bunts, to how often pitch outs are called, or what type of defensive alignment is preferred, owners have extremely detailed control over many aspects of the game.

For the die hard's, similar controls can be given to each player.  You want Rickey Henderson to steal but Ty Cobb not too?  Go right ahead.  You want Mariano Rivera to use more pick off throws to first than Bruce Sutter?  Fine!  The level of detail is entirely in each owners control.

                                                     Team                                                                                  Player

The level of involvement in ATB is entirely at the owners discretion.   Owners who change their lineups once a year (Mike S) have won the championship, and owners who keep me on the phone till 11 PM at night making scores of last minute changes (Sean) have won too.  Just keep these situations/requirements in mind as you are constructing your roster during the draft.

Defense Matters - August 24

It's been mentioned in past seasons and I have tried to press home the point with a few blurbs here and there during this pre-season, but a "study" was done a few years back to help users understand how much defense truly does matter in Diamond Mind leagues. 

To understand the study we should outline the basics first (and all of this and more is located in the "About DMB" section).  Defense is broken down into three different ratings:  Error Rates, Range, and Arm Strength (for Catchers and Outfielders).  A defensive rating first lists the range of a player at a specific position and then the error rate.  For example, 1987 Ozzie Smith's SS defensive rating is Ex / 40.  This means he has "Excellent" Range and his error rate is 40% of an average shortstop.  This is stellar, one of the best you will find in the game.  The five ranges are Poor (Pr), Fair (Fr), Average (Av), Very Good (Vg), and Excellent (Ex).

Error rates are self explanatory and not part of the study.  Any value over 100 is worse than average, any value under is better than average.  A score 110, for example, means the player will yield 10% more errors than average. 

It is the Range factor we are concerned with today.  How exactly does this impact run scoring?  How much better is Ex over Vg or how much worse is Pr than Av?  The "study" ran 100 seasons for each change in defensive ratings.  100 seasons were ran where the defensive ranges for a team were set to Average. Then, 100 additional seasons were ran each position was changed.  For example, the SS was bumped to Vg.  Then another 100 bumping the shortstop up to Ex, keeping everything else the same.  This was repeated for every position, changing only the range types of a particular position each time.  A summary of the results:

Well, it's a lengthy summary, but what the above shows is as follows:

• Catcher ranges have no discernable effect on run scoring

• Pitcher ranges have very little effect on run scoring (836 to 843 Runs Scored Spread)

• Infielders have a significant effect with the average Runs Scored spread ranging from 818 to 858

• Outfielders have a great effect, but slightly less so than infielders.  Spread of 823 R to 857 R

We need to take a step back and realize what this means.  Using Bill James Pythagorean formula to determine "expected" wins based upon runs scored and runs against, a completely average defensive team (838 RS and 838 RA for example) can gain two wins in the standings by just improving their Third Basemen's range to Ex.  The difference between a poor third basemen (Edgar Martinez) and a great one (Brooks Robinson) is even more pronounced - a whopping 4.5 games.

Now think about the effect of compiling a team with above average defense at most positions and the possibilities for a playoff birth should begin to fill your mind.  Of course, defensive wizards tend to have a weak stick and the lack of offense needs to be taken into consideration too.  One of the nice aspects of DMB is the ability to use defensive replacements, allowing an owner to substitute their offensive star for a defensive minded player late in the game. 

We'll end on the list of Excellent rated players in the database today.

Excellent Outfield and Catcher arms...

 If you want to read up on the full study, please read this post by the now famous "pearceg".

Greatest Seasons of All Time Baseball - August 23

The history of the All Time Baseball league goes back 9 seasons, and started in the year 2000 using a software package that is no longer available today (Tony Larussa Baseball 3).  League formats have changed through the years - we've had list drafts, live drafts, computer AI drafts as well as Free Form teams (select any player, dupes allowed), Greatest Real Life Teams, and the current version of the league that started with ATB VII. 

Much like in the early years of MLB, the early years of ATB have been unkind to data retention and reliable stats have only been recorded only as far back as ATB IV.  In prior years we only know bits and pieces of various statistics, such as:

• Billy Hamilton's 105 SB in ATB II

• Anecdotal evidence that Jim McCormick was the greatest pitcher of all time (think 30 wins and a sub-2.00 ERA in ATB I).  On a lighter note, later analysis revealed that McCormick real life player record was incorrectly used in ATB I.  In 1884 He was traded from the Cleveland Blues (19-22, 2.86 ERA) to the Cincinnati Outlaw Reds (21-3, 1.54 ERA) and only his Reds stats were used as the source line.

Since the 3rd year of the league however, player records have been retained in a more comprehensive manner. We may not know opponents batting average for pitchers or a players RC/27 score until more recent seasons, but we at least can obtain a glimpse at some of the more impressive performances witnessed. 

What follows are a handful of these great performances - the 10 greatest seasons recorded in ATB history.

#10) 1991 Ricky Henderson, ATB VIII (Van Nest Phighting Philbins): 

.299 / .388 / .522, .909 OPS, 31 HR, 150 R, 112 RBI, 65 SB

New owner Jeff Burns took the ATB world by surprise, storming his way to the best record in the league at 98-64.  Henderson batted lead-off for the Phighting Philbins, and Jeff had 1957 Mickey Mantle (.342 / .463 / .547) batting clean-up to help Pad Henderson's runs scored totals.  As a lead off hitter, there is not much more to ask for - high on base percentage, 65 steals, and enough pop to do plenty of damage when not leading off an inning.
 

#9) 1941 Ted Williams, ATB III (Florham Park Slap Hitters)

.350 / .470 / .681, 1.156 OPS, 57 HR, 163 R, 193 RBI

If you like counting stats look no further than Williams and his selection to the squad owned by the now MIA Bruce Nalepka.  Nalepka's one foray into ATB was successful, compiling an 89-73 (.543 Wpct) record thanks in large part to his left fielder.  Williams set a record that stands to this day - compiling a combined 356 Runs and RBI in a single season.  No batter has compiled as many as 320 before or since, and 193 RBI is another record that hasn't been approached. 

#8) 1995 Greg Maddux, ATB VI (North Dakota No Scorers)

18-5, 2.42 ERA, 241 IP, 223 H, 53 BB, 165 K, 1.14 WHIP

Maddux was the runner up for the Cy Young award this year but his 18-5 record was the best winning percentage recorded by a starter that season.  Sean Seeley's No Scorers won the title this year thanks in part to Maddux prowess.  Perhaps most remarkable was the fact that Maddux was able to do so well in 1944 Forbes Field, a park that yielded 12% more singles, 25% more doubles, and 30% more triples than average. 

#7) 1932 Babe Ruth, ATB V (1932 Yankees)

.328 / .518 / .707, 1.226 OPS, 58 HR, 124 R, 137 RBI

ATB V was a season in which owners selected historical teams as opposed to historical players.  Ruth was a shining star on one of the worst teams in the league, the 1932 Yankees, and recorded the highest OBP in the history of the ATB while smacking almost 60 home runs and keeping is batting average above .325.

#6) 2004 Randy Johnson, ATB VII (Franklin Lakes Pillpoppers)

21-4, 1.98 ERA, 237 IP, 183 H, 73 BB, 193 K, 1.08 WHIP

For the first time ATB went to a live draft and Justin Petronzi's Pillpoppers were a wrecking crew throughout the regular season, compiling a stellar 108 wins, a mark that was only duplicated in the very early versions of ATB leagues.  As #1 starter and Cy Young Award winner, Johnson was virtually un-hittable all season and his 1.98 ERA remains the current record.  The only mark against Johnson, and one that prevents a higher ranking, was his WHIP which a 1.08 doesn't quite match up against some other great pitcher seasons. 

Also of note - this was the first year in which the 2004 version of Randy Johnson was used.  While his real life 16-14 W-L record is no great feat, keep in mind in an astounding 10 of these losses Johnson gave up 3 runs or less. And 7 of these were 2 runs or less. 

#5) 2000 Pedro Martinez, ATB VI (Phoenix Coyotes - PC Led)

21-8, 2.31 ERA, 253 IP, 197 H, 54 BB, 270 K, 0.99 WHIP

ATB VI, among most other seasons, contained a handful of PC led teams.  This squad was one of the more successful ones, narrowly missing the playoffs despite a pretty good 89-73 record.  Martinez, the star of the team and eventual Cy Young award winner, is one of the few starting pitchers in ATB history to amass more strikeouts that innings pitched.  This year his K/BB ratio was an incredible 5-1 and one wonders how he lost 8 games.

#4) 1920 Babe Ruth, ATB VIII (St. Louis Perfectos - PC Led)

.324 / .453 / .744, 1.197 OPS, 63 HR, 144 R, 159 RBI

In the first true monster offensive season, Ruth climbed into the pantheon of rare .700 sluggers (35 all time in real life) thanks to the 111 extra base hits he amassed (38 2B, 10 3B, 63 HR).  His 159 RBI are 4th all time and 144 R are 5th.  One oft debated item is which Ruth year is best - 1920 or 1921?  In the earlier year Ruth had his best 'rate stat season' (.376 / .533 / .849) but the later year was the one were he recorded 177 R and 171 RBI.  In evaluating players, Diamond Mind focuses on statistics the batter can control and lets the quality of team take care of how many runners are driven in and scored.  Ruth was also named the MVP of ATB VIII.

#3) 1927 Lou Gehrig, ATB V (1927 Yankees)

.331 / .453 / .771, 1.224 OPS, 55 HR, 151 R, 162 RBI

If you recall, ATB V was the season in which historical teams were selected.  TJ's choice for the 1927 Yankees was really a no-brainer, even if he did lose in the Division Series to the eventual World Champion 1941 Brooklyn Dodgers.  The '27 Yanks featured "murderers row" of course, and Gehrig was second in the MVP voting behind a teammate and and a season yet to be mentioned in this space.  His season totals for OPS, R, and RBI are each 3rd best of all time

#2) 2000 Pedro Martinez, ATB VII (Mendham Maulers)

17-4, 2.29 ERA, 232 IP, 153 H, 50 BB, 238 K, 0.87 WHIP

The best individual pitching performance of all time was another 2000 Pedro Martinez campaign, this time he recorded a most impressive WHIP score below 0.90 while continuing to strike out more than a better per inning.  Martinez lost only 4 times all season long and his win total would no doubt be higher had Mike S's squad been able to win more than 81 games.  In what can only be considered a travesty (as bad a things can get in Fantasy Sports) Martinez, with the best performance ever, was maligned in the Cy Young award voting finishing second to Randy Johnson (#6 all time above).  Yes Johnson had more wins and a better ERA, but it is clear Martinez was the more dominant pitcher:

Martinez- 2.04 RCERA, 9.2 K/9, 5.9 H/9, 4.8 K/BB

Johnson - 2.52 RCERA, 7.4 K/9, 7.0 H/9, 2.9 K/BB

It is also clear the voter (the Commissioner) only took into account Wins and ERA and for that he wholeheartedly apologizes.

#1) 1927 Babe Ruth, ATB V (1927 Yankees)

.327 / .487 /.837, 1.323 OPS, 79 HR, 153 R, 165 RBI

Another ATB V player makes to the top 10 list and Ruth's fantasy accomplishments even exceeded his actual "bigger than life" status enjoyed with the New York Yankees.  Ruth belted an unheard of 79 HR, a mark that hasn't been challenged before or since (Mark McGwire is second all time with 64 in ATB VI).  He also doubled 35 times and is one of just 4 players to reach over 300 R+RBI's in a season. 

'27 Ruth and '27 Lou Gehrig (#3 on this list) make the best 3-4 combination in ATB history - with 134 HR, 304 R, 327 RBI between them.  Unfortunately for TJ only one other starter had an OPS over .800 and three were at .700 or below, so the 1927 Yankees were ousted in the 1st round of the playoffs.    '27 Ruth also holds the ATB record for SLG and OPS, and the latter is almost 100 points better than 2nd place - the '32 version of Ruth.

Honorable Mention

It is not easy for a reliever to crack the top 10 seasons of all time, but Mariano Rivera of the West Village Tank Toppers in ATB IV almost did so.  In the best relief pitching season in ATB history, Rivera compiled a 1.06 ERA and 29 Saves, while walking 12 and striking out 45 in 68 innings of work.  His WHIP was just 0.84.

PC Mock Draft - August 21

I thought it might be interesting to run a PC controlled mock draft, this might be especially useful for some of the newcomers.  What you need to know:

1) - Generally, the PC does not draft as well as a human.  So, interpret these results as rough guidelines as opposed gospel.  Some known issues:

        - They do not always draft at least 2 catchers

        - They have an unnatural affinity for dead ball era pitchers with 400 or more IP's.

        - They underrate the value of relief pitching

        - But they do a much better job than humans at evaluating defense which is very important (and take note!)

2) - The PC can only choose players in the database.  This means they can only choose players human owners have selected in previous ATB seasons.  I only say this to make sure it is understood that any player throughout history is available, not just those drafted here.  (I also added some of the 2006 players I thought folks would draft).

3) - 16 PC teams drafted, each using a DH.

On to the results.  Below are a few charts depicting the top players picked at each position.  And you can view the round by round results here.

FIRST BASE                                                                                    SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE                                                                                  SHORTSTOP

LEFT FIELD                                                                                   CENTER FIELD

RIGHT FIELD                                                                                  CATCHER

STARTING PITCHERS                                                                     RELIEF PITCHERS

In the coming weeks up to the draft I hope to provide more "for fun" information to keep us going while we pass the long 3 weeks.  I'll leave with a great quote from the immortal Ty Cobb...

“Baseball is a red-blooded sport for red-blooded men. It's no pink tea, and mollycoddles had better stay out. It's a struggle for supremacy, a survival of the fittest."