Coming out of the San Diego
International Airport one day, I caught a glimpse of a man in his late
30’s wearing placard which read "Repent, the Apocalypse is Coming!" on
the front, and "Y2K is the end of the world!" at the back.
It is easy to dismiss the man
and others like him as wackos. But with the Y2K anxiety creeping in everyone's
mind nowadays, I could not help but wonder if Y2K will indeed result in
the prophesied “End of the World As We Know It” scenario portrayed in cyberspace.
Will every event this year be the last?
Maybe... maybe not - two differing
responses that offer more uncertainties than answers. But, I think between
these two responses, lies the tale of the Y2Kmania.
Background
Many people think that the beginning
of the next millennium begins after midnight of December 31, 1999. This
is not true. Following the calendar, the Third Millennium actually starts
at the stroke of midnight of December 31, 2000. But in reality, the beginning
of the 3rd Millennium is actually over last January 1, 1997. Yes, it has
passed! The misunderstanding stems from an error made by Dionysius
Exiguus -a 6th century monk who figured out how far in the past Christ's
birth was based on the calendar we use today. I think Dionysius himself
is the millennium bug because as it turned out, he was off by several years.
Historians now place the Nativity no later than 4 B.C., the year King Herod
died. This means that we already missed the dawn of the Third Millennium.
I could probably argue this case until I turn blue, but people would not
really care. Why? Y2K - the Millennium bug insanity has shifted everyone's
focus to the year 2000 when the Internet is supposed to crash, kaput! So,
the biggest party of the century will be marked as the "Millennium Party"
at the stroke of midnight of December 31 this year.
With barely six months before
the so-called cyberspace meltdown, one wonders how we got to be in this
predicament. Well, in the beginning most of the world's computers and microchip
circuitry, the ones that run everything from cash machines and VCRs to
interstate electric power grids and intercontinental ballistic missiles,
contain a programming oversight that make them incapable of reading the
date 2000. Because some computers and software recognize only two-digit
years, those that do not have the glitch repaired will assume "00" is the
year 1900 and that can lead to a surprising range of malfunctions including
what cybergeeks call a digital meltdown.
The problem is there is no clear
agreement, even among the so-called cyberexperts, of how bad the Y2K computer
problem will be. One TV commercial projects a total meltdown with resulting
total chaos and collapse of banking, stock market, telecommunications,
energy and national defense systems. If you listen to the government, however,
everything is proceeding as planned and predicts that by June or July this
year, most of the economic infrastructures such as banks, utility companies,
the military, and others will be Y2K compliant!
The Religious Angle
"But of that day and hour knoweth
no man, no, not the angels of heaven, but my Father only." Matthew 24:36
Even before Jesus' death on that
first Good Friday, the disciples wanted to know when the end of the age
might come. According to the Gospel of Matthew, the disciples went to Jesus
in private hoping to get an answer. No such luck. They were told to be
ready always. No one knows the hour and the day when the world will end.
Indeed, ever since that day,
the Second Coming of Christ has been one of the greatest guessing games
in the Christian world. Century after century, doomsayers have forecast
the end, when Christ is expected to come again to "judge the living and
the dead" - to vindicate the faithful and condemn the wicked. They have
all been wrong so far. At the cusp of Y2K, the fervor is building anew
and the millennium bug is getting everyone's attention.
And to make matters worse, Hollywood
is cashing in on this new-found fear of the Apocalypse as movie moguls
resort to wayward asteroids, space invaders, Godzilla and who knows what
else to provide that strangely audience appealing image of civilization
getting wrecked.
But how do you discern fiction
from perceived reality when the doomsayers' messages of the end of the
world are reinforced by these "virtual reality" scenarios? The science-fiction
made into movie Armageddon seem to be more believable than most religious
versions of its biblical episode.
Several religious groups actually
believe that the world’s end is at hand. A doomsday cult called Concerned
Christians is a good example. Late last year, members of the cult sold
their belongings and moved to Israel from Colorado, where many Christians
believe Jesus will return. Some also point to recent weather extremes such
as the El Niño and La Niña, record-breaking typhoons or hurricanes,
and super tornadoes that recently wiped-out vast areas in Oklahoma and
Texas as forebodings of the impending doom. Others are preparing for that
great storm like they do when there is a forecast of a real storm coming:
stockpiling food, money and lots of pinto beans. "The tempest would not
be wind and rain but computers gone haywire on New Year's Day" said one
devout Christian in San Diego.
So, why are Christians so concerned
about the Second Coming? Human nature perhaps more than religion dictates
it to be so; because if it is the latter, then there should be no cause
for worry at all since Jesus promised eternal life to believers. But I
think it is human curiosity that is driving it all. We want a sneak preview
of tomorrow just as we clamor for long-range weather forecasts. Nobody
wants the world to end, obviously, but our curious minds want to know if
the world will really end or begin to end on New Year's Day so we can confirm
that Y2K is really part of God's end game. In the back of our minds, the
thought that the Y2K bug might be a wake up call from God, bedevils us
more than we would admit. What if this is God's way of saying to mankind
that we have been worshipping computers, technology and other forms of
materialism as our idols, and that He wants us to know that He is the only
true God? Diabolical as it may sound, what if the millennial bug is indeed
a harbinger of the anti-Christ? What if Bill Gates is the anti-Christ?
Is our level of panic over an event such as this really a direct reflection
of the amount of trust mankind puts on computers that run businesses, governments
and people’s lives? Or have we gone too far in placing our faith in our
technological accomplishments, on the belief that they will save us?
Panic
When I did operational tours
in Okinawa and the Philippines, MRE's (meals-ready-to-eat) were our saving
graces out in the boondocks. I distinctly remember how the sailors and
marines hated them. One of them even commented that eating dehydrated fruit
cocktail was like eating sponges. True enough, but nowadays, MRE's are
selling like it is going out of style. An owner of a camping supply store
reported that before the Y2K scare, his store used to sell about 300 cases
per month. Now, he is laughing all the way to the bank because his daily
sales average 700 cases!
Yes, Americans in various parts
of the country are into survivalist shopping sprees nowadays. Since Fall,
sales for gas and wood stoves, flashlights, solar-powered ovens, water
storage containers, hand-cranked radios, water filters, gas-powered generators
and even handguns and rifles have gone up. It is not because summer is
lurking in the corner or that Americans are more into camping or hunting,
but their reaction to a growing fear of the electronic Armageddon are driving
them to the foxhole mentality - preparing for possible power outages, food
shortages, even civil unrest. The threat of hungry scavengers is so real
to them that they believe that if you live within 5 miles of a 7-Eleven
when this thing hits the fan, you are toast!
Does the buying binge or the
survivalist notion suggest prudence or panic? To the fatalistic, panic
perhaps. But Americans prefer to err in the side of caution than being
sorry later. The Mount Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines proved to many
Filipinos and Americans that panic in the eyes of the populace of Angeles
City was prudence on the part of the American military as they abandoned
Clark Air Base at such an opportune time.
So it did not come as a surprise
that the final report of the U.S. Senate Special Committee on the Year
2000 Technology Problem on the economic and social consequences of Y2K
mirrors a cautionary tone, officially validating at least some of the survivalist
fears. The committee report's conclusions are startling, even going as
far as urging Americans to stockpile at least small amounts of food and
water to protect against expected brownouts. Among the reports specific
findings:
-
As of December 1998, only about 50% of utilities had
completed efforts to safeguard themselves from the millennium bug. As a
result, failure of some parts of the electric industry's system is likely,
even if prolonged nationwide blackout is not. Of particular concern is
the possibility that power failures will disrupt sewer treatment plants.
-
The healthcare sector is woefully unprepared to cope with
Y2K problems, which could affect not only patient health records and billing
systems but more importantly, the functioning of biomedical devices such
as X-ray machines and infusion pumps used in operating rooms. Yet, an estimated
64% of hospitals and 90 % of doctor's offices have no plans to test for
vulnerability to the millennium bug.
-
Transportation systems are also vulnerable. While the
report debunks predictions that the Y2K bug will cause rail accidents,
with switches sending trains on the wrong track it chastises the
Federal Aviation Administration for being behind in its Y2K preparations
and warns that because airports, especially those abroad, are also unprepared,
flight rationing and cancellations, particularly on routes with foreign
destinations, are highly possible.
To the Federal Emergency
Management Agency (FEMA) , however, the Y2K frenzy is clearly excessive.
FEMA admits that some trepidation is understandable, and discourages the
survivalist notion but at the same time, it cautions everyone though to
be ready for at least one to three days of inconvenience.
Common Sense Angle
"The prudent see danger and take refuge,
but the simple minded keep going and suffer for it."
Proverbs 27:12
No doubt, the Y2K bug will bring
us some problems, but many experts believe that it will not be in the magnitude
that many alarmists project. However, the media in my opinion is
irresponsibly spinning this issue out of control with all their Y2K hypes.
According to a report by the
North American Electrical Reliability Council, "Nearly all electrical systems
necessary to operate into the year 2000 will have been tested, remediated,
and declared Y2K compliant by June 30, 1999. Continuity of service is a
historical hallmark of the nation's utility industry and efforts are on
target to maintain that same quality of service through the millennium."
As far as telecommunication
service is concerned, many Y2K observers believe that widespread disruption
of service is extremely unlikely. Incorrect billing might occur, but basically
nothing will change. Caller ID and network will work. Most switches do
not care what day it is, so they assert that basic local and long distance
service will not be affected.
But what about potential food
supply problems? According to the U.S. Secretary of Agriculture, Dan Glickman,
the federal government is undertaking a massive outreach program aimed
at making private-sector organizations aware of Y2K problems and solutions.
He stressed that USDA's goal is "to do whatever it can to prevent any disruption
in the food supply chain come January 1, 2000."
Meanwhile, water utility experts
offer a wide range of answers, some predicting that some suppliers may
be temporarily unable to meet customer demands. Utilities and government
agencies, however, have comprehensive Y2K compliance programs underway.
Most experts agree that distribution and treatment should not be greatly
affected.
On the personal note for/on
Y2K preparation; experts recommend that you keep your money in the bank
and do not cash in your stocks. Most banks and credit unions are already
prepared for this supposedly impending chaos and securities industry dry-run
of its Y2K industry-wide tests verified that firms were able to input trading
in a simulated year 2000 environment and stock markets were able to process
the trades on schedule.
Many ask whether their cars
will start come January 1, 2000. According to the American Automobile Association,
cars and trucks should not be affected by the Y2K bug. Vehicle computers
recognize time only in passing milliseconds, not months and years.
As far as Social Security checks
are concerned, the Social Security Administration claims that tests have
been performed and contractors hired to repair the Social Security system
- checks will be delivered on time. But will the U.S. Postal Service deliver
them on time? Well, according to their web site, USPS intends to have all
systems used to process the mail ready by year 2000.
For household appliances, experts
say that the vast majority of consumer electronic products will not experience
Y2K problems because their components are not date sensitive. Only a few
products, such as older VCR machines and coffee pots with clocks will have
Y2K related malfunctioning.
So let us not over prepare.
We must be wary of media's reporting about an impending doom. Such reports
are causing concern disproportionate to the threat involved. Let us realize
that it is perfectly normal for government agencies to prepare for every
conceivable calamity, even though the likelihood of such a calamity is
practically nil.
Lawyers’ and Businesses’ Delight
So, with all the hype and frenzy
and eventual inconveniences, who if anyone, stands to gain from the millennial
bug? Well, it is happening already. Businesses are reaping short-term record
profits from Americans sporting the latest "gotta get ready" mentality.
And when everything is said and done, the lawyers of course will have a
field day. Why? Once Americans are all done suing each other for all the
lost checks, missing bank records, late deliveries, botched operations,
and the list could go on and on; legal judgements could be much bigger
than the original Y2K problem.
