Back in March of 1998 when I began writing, this site was not nearly as comprehensive as it is now. It was a simple and extreme sounding one page that was easily brushed off. After almost daily work, programming, it is now one of the top y2k sites on the net. It was rated by Westergaard as a four-star site and has been awarded "site of the month" at a few other sites. I have written a few articles for the Gold-Eagle web magazine which can be found here , and plan to be a regular contributor.
Has this site and the author been influential among getting the word out? Very much so. It has been an almost full-time, unpaid hobby for many months. I have been on a few national radio programs and largely responsible for getting Ed Yourdon and Gary North to appear on Art Bell's Coast to Coast show. How so? Early last year I sent repeated e-mails back and forth to Art Bell, Gary North and Ed Yourdon. Gary seemed to be hesitant (plus he's hard to get a hold of) But eventually managed to be scheduled for a 4-hour show in May. It really shook everyone up--10 million listeners including Art Bell. This eventually snowballed into much of the awareness we have today, and listeners who are now responsibly preparing! It took a while, but Ed Yourdon finally made it on the show too. (A note to all the "you're creating a self-fullfilling prophecy" idiots:... click here
You may notice that this site resembles Gary North's. Is this because I borrow from his site? Yes I do. Why? Because I believe he's hit the nail right on the head. Does Gary North also regularly borrow and visit this site? Yes, and frequently...most of the y2k Gurus (including Bob Bennett, Ed yardeni, Ed Yourdon--among many others) have done so to one degree or another. There's nothing wrong with this either...free exchange of ideas permits and encourages public discussion which can only be beneficial. Its just that not everyone has heard of this site.
In a sense, you could consider this site a modified and concentrated version of all the best info and web sites.
You may wonder what my credentials are. I would like to tell everybody, but as mentioned in Author's Introduction I would prefer to stay fairly anonymous, but Daniel Fisher is my real name and can be contacted at: dfisher@angelfire.com . However, I will tell you this: I have an I.Q. of 148 and can grasp complex subjects, and have a keen interest in world issues and economics. Do I have a track record of successes in predicting the economy? Obviously there is no way for you to verify any thing more than a year ago, so you will have to take my word for it (then again you don't) ... but yes. In the late 1980's I predicted the long drawn-out recession we experienced in the early 1990's (but I was slightly off in its intensity) . I then predicted in early 1995 that the economy would boom with a climbing stock market. Late 1997 is when I changed my tune and became extremely bearish. If you are a long-time reader you will have noticed that I successfully predicted the September/October crash we had last year and that we would hit Dow 10,000. Predicting good news makes you popular--especially when it comes true! Predicting bad news is a thankless job; Criticized and written off while sounding the alarm, then blamed for it and resented when it comes true. I strongly wish to be wrong on this subject, and I've mentally wrestled with the severe forecasts given. You see, this is the first ever known, predictable disaster. The remaining questions only deal with the extent and severity. Personally I give, Y2K a 9.3 on a scale of one to ten.
Amazingly I rarely receive any negative e-mail feed-back from readers...the vast majority is very positive. Which could be indicative of the quality of this site ( must..deflate..ego! ).
Here are some typical responses received, with a negative one first:
1.On the net (to this date) there are over a dozen, inexpensive or free, programs
geared to stopping the bug. The only problem is letting enough of the public
know this. When I bought my computer 5 years ago it only counted
to 1999. Now, after downloading a simple program, my computer goes to 2099.
2.It can be temporarily avoided in the home. (without a download) If you're not
running any accounting programs, the answer is as simple as setting your clocks
back a couple of years
I hope I made my point. The worlds is not DOOMED to a market crash. In fact the world
can be save IF the people are well informed and willing to take individual action.
some thing you might be interested in (year 200 fixing programs):
1.http://www.download.com/PC/Result/TitleDetail/0,4,0-56791,1000.html?st.dl.sub78.list.tdtl
2.http://www.download.com/PC/Result/TitleDetail/0,4,0-56790,1000.html?st.dl.sub78.list.tdtl
3.http://www.download.com/PC/Result/TitleDetail/0,4,0-51710,1000.html?st.dl.sub78.list.tdtl
I hope you find this info useful I went out of my way to write this.
sincerely,
Andrew Curioso
president of http://gamerealm.8m.com[ Author's note: Can you see the flaws in this man's arguments? He's focusing on stand-alone home PC's (and only the software part) which are not the main fundamental problems about Y2K. Mainfraimes and embedded systems and networked PC's are the significant issues, and their is no "quick-fix" for them. He makes it sound so easy and free. I suppose the IRS, GM and Citigroup bank must be a bunch of morons for spending almost a billion dollars each for their y2k remediation efforts? I also wonder why the old Gartner Group estimate for repairing y2k world-wide went up from $300-600 billion and is now $858 billion ? (CapGemini) ]
Thanks, Qwe
Andrew Gould
You put together an EXCELLENT Web Site. It is well organized, thorough, well documented (references), and visually appealing. Thank you for all your hard work. Tim V.
I must say, before visiting this site tonight, I had but a mere idea of how substantial this y2k issue really is. Thank you for opening my eyes to the vast complexity of this problem.
I'm taking this seriously! I have 2 kids and if there is even a possibility of losing power, food sources and such, my family will be ready. Thanks for all the great info and keep up the good work!!! Trekker.
Your website it GREAT!!! Two thumbs up!
Tamella
I wanted to express my support because I find your site tremendously useful. I have read it several times and it has held my mind straight in the face of the generalized denial around me. I find it very hard to live like a schizophrenic, working as a management consultant to Fortune 50 corporations during the day and being a y2k survivalist at night. After several attempts at communicating my concerns to people I began to be scorned and ostracized, so I decided to keep quiet. I don't want to lose my job before it is unavoidable. But the cost of living a dual life is high. I can't believe that people are unwilling to "buy y2k insurance" but I can't deny the facts. The blindness is overwhelming.
How do you manage to keep your energy? Given your outspoken nature and the gravity of your beliefs I imagine you must have been scorned and attacked rather harshly. In any case, I wanted to tell you that I find your hypotheses sufficiently likely to demand preparation. I still believe that there is some hope to avoid the worse disaster (a 10 in the Richter scale) but I'm not counting on hope. The scary thing, however, is that the future mayhem will be directly proportional to the present denial. With the current attitude I observe in my environment I can't avoid the unhappy conclusion that we might well face the end of the world as we know it.
Whatever happens I want to take responsibility for my life. So regardless of the accuracy of your predictions I find great value in them as a psychological anchor. I thank you for the information and I hope that our fears do not materialize. Whether they do or they don't is irrelevant. I don't play Russian roulette with one bullet in 10 chambers and my prior probabilities of collapse are certainly above 10%.
Keep up the good work. In times of darkness and blindness, it is people like you that reconcile me with the idea that the infinite spirit manifests through human beings.
Fred
Daniel,
Thanks for all the info you shared so generously. I have been a professor at MIT's Sloan School of Management and see a lot of similarities between your thinking and the field of System Dynamics (Jay Forrester, Peter Senge, John Sterman). Also, my PhD is in Economics (Berkeley), so I feel backed by 20 years of study and teaching in saying that you have done a SUPERB job in organizing all the info to create a coherent picture.
I also believe that life will go on, although perhaps with a few "bumps" in the following months. I'll be anxious to hear from you in the next year.
Good luck.
In Truth and Freedom,
Fred
My name is Alan Carrico and I found your website back in September '98 and I want to thank you for your insightful and informative perspective on Y2K. I too am a very logical, anti-pc realist that like it between the eyes. I dont go for glamour or hype and I only want the bottom line, which I feel is the only thing that matters. Your site gives me the facts the way I like it.
I was first alerted about y2k back in early August '98 and was instantly intrigued. I too fell into denial some weeks later because I was starting to feel embarrassed by making preparations, ie. stockpiling food, buying tools, a generator and other things. But I've come back into reality and am now preparing once again.
The other thing your site provides is insights on some other things that I have been aware of for some time. Especially the fragility of our fractional banking system, the Kondratieff Wave, the coming Solar storm, economic trends in the east, the rise of the EU, the rise of China, volitality in the middle east, nuclear proliferation worldwide and many other things. When we look at the strategic trends around the world, only then it is clear that something is going to break. Y2K may just be the straw the broke man's arrogant back.
I have many more things to say, but I dont want to take any more of your time. I just wanted to say thank you for helping me feel I'm not alone in this world full of arrogance and ignorance.
God Bless, Alan Carrico <><
I decided to write you this e-mail because in all my research, you are the FIRST person I have found that shares nearly all my views on y2k. It is nice to see that there are y2k 'doomers' out there other than myself that are not religious fanatics or survilalist lunatics. The term 'doomer' is an interesting one as it is used synonomously with terms like 'fanatic' and 'crazy'. While you and I are certainly extremists (in that are views are considered extreme) and doomsayers (in that we believe mankind is about to experience an event unparalelled in history), we are certainly not crazy or fanatic. However, it is interesting that because of this connection, we are unable to talk outwardly about our beliefs which we KNOW to be true.
Anyway, I have a dilemma I would like to share with you as I would imagine you will be able to relate- Last night, I went to my local Barnes and Nobles to try to find something to give to my girlfrieds father to 'wake him up'. I ended up unable to find anything that I would feel comfortable giving him (i.e. credible, convincing, and scarry enough to move him into action), so I left empty-handed. Now I am faced with a serious problem; my girlfriend knows that I have food (and lots of it. . .about a year and a half to be exact), but she refuses to buy food for herself or her family. At this point, she sort of likes the idea that her boyfriend does not fit the typical mold. . .but she nontheless thinks my beliefs about y2k are absurd (and YES I have tried to convince her). So when (if?) the time comes prior to y2k that people start to panick (perhaps next week?), she and her family will be at the end of a very long line. Imagine if her father (who knows nothing on the subject) came to me and said,"you mean you knew this was going to happen and you never told us?!". What could I possibly say except perhaps,"well, I wanted to but I was afraid you would think I was crazy".
So here we are, the 1 or 2 percent of the population that is FULLY aware of y2k and it's possible consequences, and what can we do? Nothing. Many months ago, I felt like Paul Revere. I had a mission. . .tell everyone, tell the world, y2k is coming! But to my surprise, not only did people not believe me, they thought there was something wrong with me, they labeled me a fanatic. So were I to tell her father, he would probably have the same reaction. What a burden it is, knowing what you and I know.
Anyway, enough about me :). I have a question for you. . . what is your opinion of maxing out one's credit cards and going into y2k with a balance?
Take Care, Wells
(my response): Dear Wells,
I concur with your dilemma. I too have tried to convey my concerns on y2k to family, friends and co-workers. At first it was met with interest as I handed them copies of my web site for them to read. Generally they were open-minded and concerned . However, since the beginning of the year they have all (and I mean ALL completly changed their mind and believe it will be a "bump-in-a-road." Presumably this is due to many factors such as the constant stream of PR spin issued in the mainstream media and authorities of late seeking to "reassure" the public. Most of my co-workers and friends now avoid y2k (and me, when the subject is brought up) and give looks which gives the immpression that they have scorned and ridiculed me behind my back.
The majority simply can't comprehend the concept that its too late to fix y2k and will therefore stay in a state of denial--no matter how much evidence is presented. In this case there's no point in trying to "convert" them--they have solidified their beliefs. This is a difficult situation when it involves family members. We all want our loved ones to be prepared, but not all will. I have no clear answer or solution to give other than tell them you are preparing extra for them as well. This may give them the impression that you are REALLY serious about this whole y2k situation, and compel them to prepare for themselves (?)
I suggest printing out some material from this site and the internet (such as scary quotes from officials ) and pass it around to family. When doing this be low-key and serious. Not frantic and alarming as you will shock them into thinking you are crazy. Bring up the fact that the Red Cross (hardly a fanatic organization) is recommending a week's preparation for y2k. The Canadian Mounted Police are suggesting 2 weeks.
As far as books are concerned, try Ed Yourdon's Time Bomb 2000.
As far as the credit card question, I don't give financial advice on this site, but think about this: Either way the credit card companies have nothing to lose if everyone racked them up. How so? If y2k is doomsday, it doesn't matter--it's all over. If it isn't doomsday, there will be alot of interest payments coming in!
Best of luck!
Daniel F.