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The international role of a strong Euro
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Though still dominant, the international role of the dollar has
been on a declining trend as the DEM, Yen, Pound sterling and FRf also assumed an
international role. On the eve of the introduction of the euro, the DEM had become an
important international currency, though mainly at the regional level as the central
currency of the EMS: anchor-, intervention- and reserve currency for the other
participants. The ECU also developed a role as international currency, at least until the
widening of the ERM fluctuation margins in 1993.
On 1 January 1999, the euro instantly became an international reserve
and intervention currency by inheriting the role held so far by the DEM, FRF and the EW.
Looking beyond this starting level, the prospects for the euro's
further development are promising.
A major prerequisite is economic weight. The bigger a country, the
larger its GDP and the larger its share in world trade On this score, the euro zone
compares rather favourably with the U.S. Its population numbers 290 million against 278
million; its GDP amounts to £5,500 billion as against 6,800 billion euro; and it accounts
for 18% of world exports as against 15% for the U. S.
The existence of large, diversified and liquid financial markets in euro also
play a key role in the latter's international development. A promising start took place on
4 January, 1999 when EMU's money-, bond- and stock markets began operating in euro. Much
more so than the former fragmented national markets they will attract foreign borrowers,
lenders, issuers and other operators alike.
Of course, monetary policy also matters. The ECB's constitutional
mandate to ensure price stability will result in a low-inflation euro zone (defined as
below 2%). Achieving this target on a durable basis will require a coherent policy-mix
between the single monetary policy and the national budgetary policies of EMUs Member
States under the umbrella of the Stability and Growth Pact. Depending on the credibility
of this happening, another prerequisite for the development of the euro as a major
international currency will be met.
The inertia to change might nevertheless handicap the euro's
development. Indeed, the more a currency is used in international transactions of all
kind, the more useful and inexpensive it becomes for other potential users. The dollar
possesses this so-called "network" advantage. |
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