I. Introduction
A. Attention Getter - Try to remember the dumbest thing you’ve ever done. Now try to think about doing it over and over again for 9 years. Now, try to imagine that you’ve stopped doing it for a while, only to find, suddenly, that the consequence of your doing that action is to cause you to do it again, whether you want to or not. Such is that case of the Russian invasion of Afghanistan, or as I like to call it, the Super Stupid Soviet Southern Sojourn.
B. Psychological/Thesis – The Soviet Union’s decision to occupy Afghanistan has led to the installment of the current Taliban regime in that country.
C. Logical - Current events have placed the world’s focus on this mountainous, war torn, Islamic country in South Central Asia and the source of its problems needs to be identified.
II. Body
A. Before 1979 - Tribal country – 20 tribes – 4 major (Uzbek, Tajik, Hazara, Pashtun)
1. Similarities
a. Speak Dari
b. Mostly illiterate farmers
c. Solve problems by eliminating them
d. Islamic – sanctify everything
e. Fear change, outsiders, central gov’t, seek revenge
f. Masculine superiority, personal bravery & honor
2. Differences
a. Local traditions – even older - combined with Islam
b. Some nomad, some converting to modern (lawyer, doctor)
c. 1,000 – 100,000 members
3. Dr. Charles Cogan
a. “They have a history of being very doughty fighters:
b. “They’re good with weapons and can endure great hardship”
c. Transition – “Afghanistan is a hard country to achieve unity in and perhaps it never will”
B. Invasion – with this in mind, Russia decided to go ahead and invade anyway
1. Aims
a. Establish a pliable Communist state with little military action/presence.
b. Use it to pressure neighbors (Paki, Iran) and to isolate China
2. Means
a. Military force from 80,000 in 80 to 120,000 in 86
b. Superior tech – tanks/helis/chemicals
c. Superior resources – 2.5% of defense budget - $16 billion and also unlimited manpower.
d. Aid Afghan army and bolster them to fight insurgents and disperse quickly
3. Problems – recently declassified Nat’l Security Archives “Although the USSR’s purpose in Afghanistan is of political nature, the impact of its involvement has created an adverse economic byproduct. Afghanistan’s economic foundation has been critically damaged, leaving the country dependent on the USSR for its basic subsistence.”
a. Forces 1/3 of pop to exile
b. Big cost as Af is now net importer, not exporter
c. Locals refuse Soviet land redistribution and education policies
d. Sense of revenge evoked whenever Soviets kill a man
e. Change of gov’t seen as change from Islamic to atheist and from tribal/family allegiance to gov’t allegiance – take up arms.
f. Hundreds of militias formed
1. Infighting (Shiite, Sunni)(intertribal enemies)
2. Supplied by US, Paki with small arms
3. No central organization
4. Small raids
5. Work day/summer, fight night/winter
g. Can’t control borders – flow of men/supplies
h. Low intensity war creates stalemate
1. Appease Russians, int’l community
2. Stay out of full-fledged war
3. Minimize losses
a. Imprecise high alt bombing
b. Unsuccessful grounds forces
i. As soon as area is unoccupied, resistance is back
j. Money
a. No agricultural base
b. Industrial projs aided by USSR abandoned
c. GNP goes down
k. War of Weariness
a. Afghans show no sign of needing to quit
b. Russia could go on forever
l. Support of population to rebels
a. give good intel
b. defections 30,000/year to rebels
c. rebels always moving from town to town
d. Every town has a resistance
e. renders air strike ineffective unless risk civilian casualties.
m. Soviet media control ineffective with low literacy
n. Recently declassified Nat’l Sec Arch “Afghanistan has always resisted external forces.”
4. Outcomes after withdrawal by Feb 1989
a. Russia loses credibility as an ally and a decision maker
b. Casualties
1. 25,000 men
2. 1000’s armored vehicles
3. 100’s aircraft
4. 67,000 Afghan Army
c. Weakens int’l posture – fallible – US wins Cold War
d. Open civil war/anarchy in grab for power with weak gov’t left over
1. Mohammed Omar starts Taliban in 1994. Taliban takes job protecting convoy from Islambad with former rebel fighters and then according to BBC “They went on to take Kandahar, beginning a remarkable advance which led to their capture of the capital, Kabul, in September 1996.”
2. In 1985 Osama bin Laden starts al-Qaida to recruit/train/shelter/aid/move troops and supplies for fighting.
a. Uses Dad’s money and sympathetic contributions
b. Turns into terrorist network and is sheltered by the Taliban
3. Washington Report – “Taliban cannot understand why it should be the world’s business when they, for instance, amputate the hand of a thief, or stone to death an adulterer, as prescrived by Islamic criminal law. By what authority, Taliban leaders demand, does a Western organization intercede on behalf of an Afghan woman in contravention of local cultural mores the have persisted for more than 1000 years?”
a. Misunderstanding and pride leads to hatred then violence
b. Now you know the rest of the story
III. Conclusion
A. Power hungry nation wishes to extend its influence.
B. Miscalculated, stayed in too long
C. Finally pull out leaving country in shambles
D. Country rebuilds chaotically and attacks Russia’s former enemy. Russia must now aid the former enemy in fighting it’s own creation, adding insult to insult and injury.
E. If Russia had never invaded, the Taliban would not have come into power.
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