I have little doubt (there's ALWAYS a little doubt in big fights) Lewis will reclaim his titles and win convincingly. I like Rahman. He's skilled, but as I said for the first fight: Rahman's best chance is to catch Lewis early because, historically, Rahman's stamina is horrendous in the later rounds. Some people say the same for Lewis, and while you can make that case, Lewis's stamina is NO WHERE near as bad as Rahman. Lewis in 8.
Wlad should be proud. He's really put together a series of convincing, impressive wins ever since his first and so far only defeat. Izon is great when it comes to fighting heart and hanging in there, but he's taken an enormous amount of punishment in his big fights. I like Wlad by KO in about 4 rounds.
Who would've thought that Holyfield would decline to the point where he'd have to prove himself against an average fighter like John Ruiz? For a third time, no less. Personally, I thought Evander lost to Ruiz the first time out. If that wasn't enough of an indication, he was nearly knocked out by Ruiz and even knocked down in the rematch. Holyfield has proven enough people wrong enough times, and he may have enough left to score a KO, but his days at the top of the division appear to be long gone. I think Holyfield left whatever top 10 skills he had left in the ring the night of the Lennox Lewis rematch. Ruiz will win a decision, or get robbed.
I'm biased. I'm rooting for Casamayor all the way. Trying to put that aside, I think Freitas has a very good chance to prove me wrong. He certainly seems to have the power, although he has yet to prove it against anyone relevant in the top 10 in his division. I think Casamayor has the skills to outox Freitas, maybe even enough power to knock him out. I have a feeling I'm going on a limb, but I'll say Casamayor in 9.
For a while now, I've thought Floyd Mayweather was the best 130 lb fighter. But ever since Diego Corrales made his name as a 130 lb champion, it looks like Floyd has slowed down and Diego has run past him as the best 130 lb fighter right now. Floyd no longer has his dad in his corner, nor has been that active. But he does have the agility and talent to beat Corrales. However, I think Corrales will win this fight. He has proven that he can take a punch well, he hits really hard and throws those short, crisp shots that land. He has virtually destroyed almost every fighter he has faced. This is a major step up for both these fighters. It should be interesting and close while it lasts. I can see a scenario where Corrales will find Floyd difficult to hit and Floyd may just have enough pop in those rapid fire punches to stun Corrales badly. But I think Diego will eventually settle in, and possibly score a knockdown or two. Could go either way, but I like Corrales by a hair.
Sharmba Mitchell has the movement to give Tszyu a lot of trouble. Both men have been good champions, but I think Tszyu will eventually catch Sharmba with something big, and Sharmba won't be able to take it. Historically, Mitchell's chin has not been the best and against Tszyu he will have to use all of his experience to beat him. I think Tszyu has too much and will score a mid to late rounds KO. For a while now, I've thought Floyd Mayweather was the best 130 lb fighter. But ever since Diego Corrales made his name as a 130 lb champion, it looks like Floyd has slowed down and Diego has run past him as the best 130 lb fighter right now. Floyd no longer has his dad in his corner, nor has been that active. But he does have the agility and talent to beat Corrales. However, I think Corrales will win this fight. He has proven that he can take a punch well, he hits really hard and throws those short, crisp shots that land. He has virtually destroyed almost every fighter he has faced. This is a major step for both these fighters.
Kirk Johnson is finally taking his first step up by taking on the proven tough guy, Oleg Maskaev. Johnson's biggest fights have come against former cruiserweight Al "Ice" Cole, who gave him his toughest fights. And Dannell Nicholson, a decent second or third tier caliber heavyweight who lost to Andrew Golota.
Cole gave Johnson fits in their fight no. 1, which resulted in a draw. So if Johnson thought Cole was tough, he better be prepared to step it up against Oleg. Maskaev is a very strong fighter, he takes punishment and he hits hard.
On Johnson's side, he seems to be the quicker, more mobile guy. He may have the boxing ability to outfox the plodding Maskaev. But Maskaev is on a roll with knockout wins over Hasim Rahman and Derrick Jefferson. In his fight with Rahman, Rahman was outboxing him but should the fight have gone to the scorecards, it was still conceivable that Maskaev could win on points. Instead, he thrashed Rahman out of the ring with a big right hand.
So. While Johnson should be the craftier of the two, Maskaev seems to be the tougher one. If Johnson had his hands full with Cole, Maskaev is sure to rough him up and possibly set him up for a late KO or close decision win. One thing is for sure, this fight will answer a lot of questions about Kirk Johnson.
There's a lot of talk going around about Robert Davis. He has people talking after he won, presumably in impressive fashion, against veteran Greg Page. But I've seen Davis fight and his chin is definitely a questionable one. It's hard for me to erase an up and coming Davis nearly being put to sleep by so-called easy fighter Felton Hamilton, who rocked Davis early with right hands. To Davis's credit, he turned it around and won that fight early in his career and seems to have improved since. But I don't think chins improve even though boxing ability does, and "Mount" Whitaker seems to have the punch to definitely test Davis. In his first high profile fight against then contender Lou Savarese, Whitaker came super close to knocking Savarese out, eventually losing an ultra-close decision to Lou. He then won a close decision against Monte Barrett, in which one brutal Whitaker right hand at the very end of their fight caused an enormous gash on Monte's face. If Whitaker, who's desire may be questionable, can inspire himself and throw some of those right hand bombs, he should knock out the seemingly chinny Davis. But Davis is an energetic fighter, and he may have the agility and saavy to avoid Whitaker's biggest shots. Like Maskaev-Johnson, it's a big fight for both fighters and the winner will prove a lot. Whitaker by come from behind KO.
Wow, Ayala-Tapia II. I'm not going to hold my breath for another slugfest since sequels almost always fall a little below par from the first. It's still a must-see fight. I had always favored Tapia when envisioning the rematch. I always felt that Tapia lost fight no. 1 because he would lose his cool and slugged it out. To his credit, he made the fight really exciting, but he compromised his standard scientific approach to an opponent and lost several close rounds enroute to a razor thin loss to Ayala in his first loss.
I felt that if Tapia came in level-headed and applied the sweet science, he'd win as convincingly as he always had up until the first Ayala fight. In the fights following the Ayala loss, Tapia has fought a couple of ok opponent and looked good. His high-energy attack is still mesmerizing and he is still a wondrous counter-puncher. But as some insiders know, Tapia has been suffering from depression and has been in the hospital because of it.
So the question is, can Tapia get up for this fight? I think the answer is an unequivocal yes. I doubt Johnny would take this fight unless he was ready. I think he'll capitalize on his own mistakes and fight a smarter fight. But Ayala is not to be taken lightly as their first fight proved. Ayala has been a fight champion, but his weaknesses are alive and ready to be taken advantage of and I think Tapia is the man to do it. It will be another stylistic conflict at first, but I think Tapia will eventually win a narrow decision.
Wladimir Klitschko is so far a much more proven commodity than his brother Vitali. He's won all 8 of his comeback fights by KO and he has done so against good opposition. He became the first man to knock out the iron-chinned Axel Schulz. He destroyed David Bostice, Phil Jackson and Monte Barrett.
But the 6'1 Chris Byrd is the heavyweight David of David and Goliath fame. A small heavyweight who is not a hard puncher, but who is slick, talented and above all brave. The robotic 6'8 Vitali was able to outbox the defensive Byrd, but Byrd was in the fight and fighting back. It was nice to see Byrd muster the courage to actually chase Vitali down on a few occasions during their fight.
Will Byrd be more successful against Wladimir? Hard to say. Wlad is a more refined fighter than Vitali, and seems to have quick enough hands and hard enough punches to beat Byrd. But I reiterate, Byrd is brave and he is smart. You need no further indication of Byrd's bravery than to look at the fact that he is facing Wladimir after beating Vitali. Unlike a lot of fighters, Byrd has remained true to his word about fighting everyone. But you have to give Wladimir the edge. He's bigger, stronger and he's improved a bit since the upset loss to Ross Puritty.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a draw verdict in this one. I think Wlad wins a close decision against an equally game Byrd.
Talk about a must see fight. Like with Corrales-Manfredy, I'm going to have trouble rooting for either guy. I like Tyson and would like to see win back the title, but I've also been a huge Golota fan and would like to see him finally live up to his wondrous potential.
Both are mentally unstable and this has made it a bit of a freakshow fight, but stylistically and given both fighters ability to hit, it makes it a potential slugfust, and yes, a potential foul-fest.
The trick here is to analyze the fighters' mental instability in the ring.
Golota has definitely improved with the fouling. He's been in a few tough fights since the Bowe fight and he hasn't resorted to the chronic fouling that lost him the Bowe fights. That's not to say he doesn't foul at all, every fighter fouls. But he doesn't do it all the time as was the case against Bowe. The problem with Golota is that his mental muscle seems to flab out whenever he's pressured and that's something that hasn't changed. He was easily destroying Bowe and Grant until the pressure made him quit. Needless to say, Tyson is the epitomy of a pressure fighter.
Tyson's instability also comes in the face of adversity. The thing I've noticed is that Tyson seems to try and fight fair at first before he resorts to fouling, while Golota quits when the pressure is high.
Skillwise, this is a fight that Golota should be able to win easy, save for being caught with a bomb. He's got great skills, good power and a sturdy chin. If he had mental discipline, he'd have beaten Bowe and Grant, and would've at the very least given Lewis hell. But again, his mental faculties are extremely weak.
On the other hand, if Golota can manage to make it past a few rounds, shows some discipline, Tyson could very well resort to fouling and disqualify himself. He's had a few close calls recently: trying to break Franz Botha's arm, hitting Orlin Norris after the bell, and hitting Lou Savarese after the fight was waved off. And Golota is way more talented and physically stronger than those three fighters put together.
If Golota can withstand the pressure for once, he'll beat Tyson for sure. But after repeated failures to suck it in against Bowe (twice), Lewis and Grant, it doesn't seem like Golota will ever achieve his obvious championship potential and there's no reason to believe he'll ever will. Maybe he can change that against Tyson, but his past actions don't indicate that to be likely.
Tyson early.
Antonio Diaz is a good fighter. He's had some great knockouts, and some good technical performances like his win over Corey Spinks. Recently, he's had a few close calls, almost losing decisions to unheralded opponents. Maybe it was because he took his opponent lightly. But maybe not.
Against Mickey Ward, Diaz will find the biggest challenge of his career. Ward is no push over as he's proven over time. And Ward's career has enjoyed a great resurgence with a string of great knockout wins.
Ward's most recent losses come to good champions in Vince Phillips and Zab Judah. Phillips beat him on a cut in the third round, but they were very even 3 rounds. Judah is Judah, a very good, quick, defensive boxer. No shame in losing to him.
Diaz is no Judah when it comes to speed and defense, so this should be a highly competitive fight. Perhaps Diaz needed a challenge to make him step up and he's got one, but I think Ward will pull this one out in the late rounds in true Ward style.
I think Diaz's best bet is to stick to boxing and end it early if possible. Ward is known for his late round comebacks, so if Ward makes it that far, I'd tell Diaz to play the role of a boxer.
Ward TKO 8.
While most everyone is concerned for Julio Cesar Chavez's health and justifiably so, he just may be able to pull out a good performance. Maybe even the upset. Prior to the Willy Wise debacle, he had some good knockouts under his belt. And despite his obviously declining skills, he was successful in combat. It's also important to note, that the Wise fight took place at Welterweight. It's also very possible that Chavez underestimated Wise and came in unprepared and poorly conditioned.
Against the quick, punching machine that is Tszyu, Chavez knows that he can't take the fight lightly. He seems determined to prove his critics wrong. He knows that the voices calling him to retire are loud, and he knows that the majority of the boxing community think he doesn't stand a chance.
It brings to mind a quote that can be seen in the HBO special Kings of the Ring: Beware of an old, great fighter. For he may always have one great fight left.
Even if Tszyu is winning, the fight has gone to the late rounds and Tszyu is a seemingly sure winner, you can't forget about Chavez's uncanny ability to come back, or Tszyu's upset at the hands of Vince Phillips.
Having said that, I think Kostya Tszyu will prevail. Probably forcing a stoppage in the later rounds if he plays it smart. I don't think it will be the one-sided massacre that was Tszyu's brutalization against Miguel Angel Gonzalez, but it will be Chavez's last stand.
Wishful thinking? We'll see come Saturday night. <
I have not been impressed with John Ruiz as a fighter so far. He knocked out a way past-his-prime Tony Tucker, he clinched his way to a decision victory over Jimmy Thunder, he's also knocked out Ray Anis and Steve Pannell. More recently, he has beaten two outclassed opponents, Fernely Feliz and Mario Cawley, in his last two fights, which didn't prove anything.
Even so, his chances are decent that he might be able to upset Holyfield for the WBA title and strictly because of Holyfield's slower reflexes.
Holyfield has visibly been getting older and older with each fight. I'm sure his two fights with Lennox Lewis didn't help that, but Holyfield showed that he was able to bring back the fire that has made him a great fighter in the second Lewis fight even though he lost a decision, (in the eyes of the judges and my own as well). He gave Lewis a spirited fight even though he was not able to keep the pressure on for long periods of time.
John Ruiz is no Lennox Lewis and I think Holyfield will beat him. Ruiz is an ok fighter, but I think even a past-his-prime Holyfield will get by him. Holyfield in 4.
Talk about a toss up. I think Jefferson has the skills to pound out a decision over Maskaev, but the way he ran out of gas against David Izon makes me wonder.
Maskaev is a durable fighter. He gave David Tua a rough fight until he was caught by Tua's infamous power, and he was fighting with Hasim Rahman on even terms until he knocked out Rahman in impressive fashion.
Advantages for Jefferson: Skillful fighter who uses a wide variety of punches. Determination and heart.
Advantages for Maskaev: Pretty good power, toughness, stamina.
Disadvantages for Jefferson: Obviously stamina is a huge question mark after the Izon setback. Chin is iffy as well.
Disadvantages for Maskaev: Chin is questionable here too, though losing to Tua, one of the biggest punchers in boxing today, is hardly a disgrace. Looks one-dimensional and a plodding type of fighter.
The trick here is for Jefferson to pace himself well. Against Izon, he went all out, hands blazing, like a heavyweight Arturo Gatti and by the mid-rounds he ended up panting heavily and falling out of exhaustion. He knows now that he has to take it easy. Will he figure out how to do that from one fight to the next? We'll see.
Oleg's power is a threat here. If Maurice Harris can have Jefferson going, I think Oleg's will too. Oleg has to keep the pressure on Jefferson and try and land his right hand often.
Prediction: Jefferson will pace himself better, fight a smarter fight, but he will again find himself in an awkward spot at the hands of Oleg's power. Jefferson will make a good account of himself and entertain the world over, but he will find himself in trouble again in the late rounds. Assuming Jefferson paces himself better, he'll have enough in the tank to hold on, and Maskaev will have him on the verge of a stoppage when the final bell rings. Jefferson wins enough early rounds to capture a split-decision victory.
I'm tempted to use a cliche and I will: It's do or die time for Rahman.
Rahman is a talented guy. He boxes well and has decent power. He was outboxing David Tua until he was caught by Tua's power, and I thought he was slightly ahead on points when Oleg Maskaev knocked him out of the ring. His stamina has been a problem in the past. Jeff Wooden had Rahman going in the late rounds before Rahman managed to stop him, and both Tua and Maskaev stopped him late.
I've never had the benefit of watching Corrie Sanders fight. He did steamroll Al "Ice" Cole in one round and that is significant given that Michael Grant and Kirk Johnson were unable to beat him convincingly.
So, given that I'm unfamiliar with Sanders' style, he clearly has to have power to do what he did to Cole, so I have to give him a puncher's chance. But given that this is really a "must win" situation for Rahman, I think he'll come through and box his way to a decision win or late rounds stoppage despite some bumpy roads along the way.
This fight isn't going to be easy for Mike. Lou is an extremely tough guy and he comes to fight. Lou has been in a few wars already and he just might have given all he can give in brawls with Foreman, Izon, Whitaker, and Grant.
However, win or lose, Savarese comes to fight and no matter how hurt he is, he'll get up and fight the good fight.
Savarese is big, long reach, good power and decent fight ability. Gotta give Mike credit for taking this dangerous fight because he can lose.
I favor Mike because of his punching power, which is the one thing he still has in spades. His head movement has shown some improvement since the Botha fight, but not that much better that I think it'd be a factor against Lou. And above all, Mike's mental situation. With a guy like Lou coming to fight and surely giving it his all, will Mike crack?
I think this will be Mike's toughest fight since Holyfield, but I think he will win it through the skin of his teeth.
Tyson KO 5
Lets forget about the De La Hoya-Mosley amateur fight, ok? Totally irrelevant. I can't believe so much emphasis would be put on an amateur fight that took place when these guys were 13 and 14. Lets look at the present.
Mosley is a phenomenal talent. He has great skills, speed and pretty good power. However, I don't think he has the experience to beat De La Hoya, certainly not convincingly.
Both have about as many fights, but De La Hoya has vast world class experience. He has fought the likes of Genaro Herandez, Jorge Paez, Rafael Ruelas, Jesse James Leija, John-John Molina, Julio Cesar Chavez, Miguel Angel Gonzalez, Pernell Whitaker, Wilferdo Rivera, Ike Quartey, Oba Carr and Felix Trinidad.
By comparison, Mosley has faced Philip Holiday, Wilfredo Ruiz, Demetrius Ceballos, Eduardo Morales, Golden Johnson, John Brown, Wilfredo Rivera and older versions of Molina and Leija.
Mosley will give De La Hoya a lot of pressure. Mosley will go to the body and land fast punches, but I see De La Hoya's skills neutralizing Mosley. I think Oscar will utilize his reach advantage and pump out the left hook.
Mosley, while very talented, has not tasted big power in his pro career and how he will handle welterweight power is yet to be seen.
Oscar's Advantages: Vast experience, Versatile fighter (can box or slug), great left jab, powerful left hook, effective right hand when he uses it. Good chin. Height and reach.
Shane's Advantages: Superb body puncher, speed, above average power. Seemingly solid chin. Puts on a lot of pressure.
Oscar's Disadvantages: Constantly changing trainers, always worried about how boxing public receives him; self-confidence.
Shane's Disadvantages: Lacks one-punch KO power and depends on doing damage by accumalation; inexperience at the world class level. Will be giving up height and reach. Chin is untested and more so at welterweight.
I predict Oscar will be the first to put Mosley on the canvas and if Mosley isn't careful, he will be stopped inside the distance. De La Hoya in 9 rounds.
Ingle has guts and lots of heart. Jones was a terrific fighter at one point but his skills have diminished considerably.
Jones has looked very mediocre beating fellow over-the-hill fighters like Tom Johnson and Tracy Harris Patterson. I suspect that a youthful champion will be too much for Jones at this point.
Ingle was able to come on strong late in his fight with Naseem Hamed before he was ultimately KO'd by Hamed and he was able to beat a fading Manuel Medina.
Perhaps Jones can rediscover a reservoir of fight left in him but if after two KO defeats, (one to Kennedy McKinney and the other to Erik Morales, both under 5 rounds),and two very mediocre performances against Johnson and Patterson. All 4 performances being big fights for him, there is little incentive to believe he can find that find that reservoir.
Ingle by late rounds stoppage, or unanimous decision.
Lewis is very underrated. I think his ring intelligence and boxing skills will carry him to a 12 round decision over Michael Grant.
Grant has heart, an effective left jab and powerful right. But he's too laid back and often waits on the other guy to clock him. He did that against Andrew Golota and was suffering a one-sided, brutal beating until Golota quit. I don't think Grant will change from one fight to the next, but I can see him winning by come from behind KO.
Lewis' Advantages: Experience, effective left jab and knockout power with the right hand, ring smarts. Good boxer.
Grant's Advantages: Like Lewis, he possess a good left jab and good right hand. Heart. Comes on strong in late rounds.
Lewis' Disadvantages: Overconfidence will bring about a loss in this case. Chin has been suspect. Getting up there in age.
Grant's Disadvantages: Doesn't seem to get inspired until he's hit. Chin is suspect as well.
This is a fight Lewis can lose if he's overconfident. He can not think that just because he blew Andrew Golota away and Grant didn't that Grant is going to be easy. If he does, then I like Grant's chances tenfold. The variable here is whether Lewis is overconfident.
If Lewis comes prepared, focused, and ready for a tough fight, then I think he'll win it.
Lewis via decision.
Robinson had no power at Lightweight and I don't expect that to change at Jr. Welterweight. Robinson is a good boxer who had a huge career surge when he beat the power-punching Arturo Gatti twice.
Diaz is fun to watch but overrated in a sense. He still should have enough power at Jr. Welterweight to force a stoppage in the late rounds.
Robinson could make it a stylistically tough fight, but I just see a bigger Diaz eeking out the decision or forcing the stoppage.
I think Quartey could win this fight, but the question is whether or not a long layoff will hurt his chances. Quartey is more accurate with his punches. Quartey has a great right hand when he chooses to use it and of course he has punishing left jab.
Vargas is more active and this is a definite plus. He showed against "Winky" Wright that he could handle going the distance and that he can psychologically handle adversity despite the fact that he was fighting a boxer with a frustrating style.
This is a huge step up for Vargas. He's never fought a boxer/puncher of Quartey's caliber and never one who is as accurate with his shots.
Both seemingly have a good chin. Only DLH and Lopez were able to floor Quartey, which isn't a disgrace. Quartey's chin is proven to be really good. A mediocre or glass chin wouldn't have been able to handle the 12th round barrage administered by DLH. It's especially important to note that despite being on the receiving end of those shots, Quartey never stopped throwing punches and was able to back DLH up after being on the receiving end of those shots for a few moments.
Vargas has never been down, but then again he hasn't faced punchers of the Lopez or De La Hoya caliber.
Quartey didn't show significant ring rust against De La Hoya, but did show that stamina could be an issue in that fight as well as in the Lopez fight. However, this may be due to draining to make Welterweight more than anything.
Vargas' advantages: More active, ring smarts, confidence, uses a wide variety of shots to the head and body, doesn't get frustrated, can box or punch.
Ike advantages: Telephone pole jab, devestating right hand, ability to absorb punches, experience, tenacity, excellent punching accuracy.
Vargas' disadvantages: Inexperience, may punch a little wide for the more accurate Quartey.
Quartey's disadvantages: Stamina looks like a problem in the late rounds, a lot of ring rust, going up in weight.
I think you have to give Vargas a slight advantage. Quartey is moving up to him and has been very inactive. Still, the question remains whether Vargas can absorb accurate punching of Quartey's caliber. If it weren't for the inactivity and moving up in weight, I'd make Quartey a firm favorite to win because of his accuracy and experience, but since ring rust and added weight are considerable factors in any fight, I have to lean toward Vargas by the slightest of margins.
I will say this: Quartey's conditioning will be the main variable in the fight. Vargas by decision.
Ruddock is replaced by a prime, stylistically challenging Byrd, whose only loss comes at the hands of Ike "The President" Ibeabuchi.
This is a fight where I see Byrd as the more stylistically dominant fighter. Byrd will make Vitali miss with his right hand often and thwart the left jab.
Vitali, however, is a much bigger fighter and he hits very hard as evidenced by the fact that all of his wins come by way of KO. It's feasible that Vitali can take out Byrd out with one good solid shot to the chin, so Byrd will need to be bring all of his defensive wizardry into full effect.
Byrd is hungry. No one wants to fight Byrd and so far Byrd has shown a propensity of getting into the ring with everyone. A title winning effort against Vitali will thrust him into the heavyweight forefront, which is something he has wanted very badly.
As far as intangibles, I give that to Byrd. As I said, he is very hungry to make noise in the heavyweight division. Ibeabuchi clocked Byrd very hard, so Byrd's chin is a question mark but he has everything else though so I pick him to win this fight. Furthermore, I think Ibeabuchi is much more talented than Vitali.
I've seen several Vitali fights. All I see is a decent left jab and a strong right hand. He isn't that fast. I'm not too impressed with him so far but a win over Byrd will definitely make a heavyweight to watch out for because Byrd is by far the most talented heavyweight Vitali has faced so far.
On top of all this, Byrd has to worry about being convincing against Vitali. Since this fight will take place closer to Vitali's territory than Byrd's, he has to be wary of a hometown decision.
My compliments to BOTH Vitali and Byrd for making this fight happen. Both are dangerous fighters and this is a risky proposition for both. It shows that they mean what they say when they say they want to be the best.
I pick Byrd to outbox and outslick the bigger Vitali and win a decision.
Julio Alvarez may have knocked "Pito" Cardona out in 6, but Johnston is the best lightweight in the world. Johnston's smooth boxing style should carry him to a 12 round decision win.
No picnic for Mayweather. Vargas is a tough guy. This will be Mayweather's toughest test since Angel Manfredy. Vargas is capable of the upset. There have been reports that Mayweather has been hanging out with the wrong crowd, and if that's the case, a Mayweather loss could be only a matter of time. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.
Mayweather is very gifted and has remarkable speed. Mayweather in 9 rounds.
If Roberto Garcia's power wasn't good enough to knock Corrales down, neither will Gainer's. Gainer is talented, but so is Corrales.
"Smoke" has looked better recently than he has ever before and he is hungry. You may have to give Gainer an edge when it comes to being hungrier. Definitely not one to overlook for the rising Corrales.
Corrales is a big Jr. Lightweight and he'll have the edge in reach and power. And hey, Corrales has got good boxing skills and I don't expect Gainer's southpaw style to be a factor.
Corrales by 7th round KO.
There's talk about Hurtado not being able to take a punch. He was beating Pernell Whitaker more convinvingly than anyone before or since when in the 11th, he was jarred by a Whitaker left hand coming in. He had also knocked Kostya Tszyu down twice before succumbing to Tszyu's brutal body attacks.
An unfair way to remember the highly talented Hurtado who happens to be one of the best amateur boxers out of Cuba in Cuban boxing history. Unfair because Whitaker has been known to crack when he has to and Hurtado was, in my opinion, overmatched a Welterweight and should be competing at Jr. Welterweight. And it's also unfair because in his fight with Tszyu, Hurtado was given a week and a half to prepare. Hurtado told me himself: "I was on vacation and the next thing I knew I was fighting in a week."
Hurtado had also fought to a 10 round decision less than a month before. He still had the power to drop both Whitaker and Tszyu twice.
Golden Johnson is a competitior, but with a fully prepared and determined Hurtado in front of him, I think Hurtado wins.
Hurtado in 7.
Great fight for ESPN 2. Hopefully, it won't fall through like many ESPN 2 fights have. Oliveira has been in there for a while and won't easy for the up and coming Harris.
Whether or not Harris' fights with Isander Lacen and Hector Arroyo have prepared him for the seasoned Oliveira remains to be seen. Harris has looked good in these fights, so his chances are good.
Oliveira has hung tough with Vernon Forrest and Syd Vanderpool, so he has had some stern tests. He may have the experience to get Harris out of there, but we'll see.
I expect Harris to prevail via hard-fought decision in what should be an intruiguing fight.
The question here is whether Gatti's skills will be as effective at a higher weight. Gatti is 1-3 in his last four fights. He lost to Manfredy on cuts and lost to Ivan Robinson twice by decision. It could be a case of Robinson having Gatti's number, or it could mean that Gatti is past his prime. I think Robinson just had his number.
Gatti should have enough left to beat Gamanche, but I don't think it'll be easy. I'll take Gatti by late rounds stoppage, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Gamanche score an upset.
Gatti by KO in round 9.
I can not make an accurate assessment since I have not been able to watch Coley fight. However, it's pretty clear that De La Hoya is one of the best fighters in the world.
My understanding is that Coley struggled in his fight with Willy Wise, a decent fighter, but with no punch. This makes me very apprehensive about giving him a serious chance against the Golden Boy, so based on that alone, I don't think he can pull off the upset. De La Hoya is way ahead of Wise in the talent pool and if Coley can't get past a non-puncher, albeit a decent boxer, like Wise convincingly, I don't think he can get past an accurate, boxer/puncher like De La Hoya.
De La Hoya by early KO.
(I did get to meet Coley and if you get a chance, say hi. A really cool guy and he seems to know about boxing.)
A stupendous match-up that should prove to be a very close, competitive fight. I like Peden in this fight.
David Santos is a tough hombre though. He kept coming at Casamayor in their fight and kept launching that right hand like a torpedo. Very tough guy.
Peden however is very fast and hits with tremendous authority. Against Casamayor, Santos was bulled against the ropes and in trouble for a brief moment as Casamayor came close to pulling off a dramatic 1st round knockdown. I don't think Casamayor is a big puncher, but he is fast. However, Peden is both fast and a hard puncher, so I think that will be the deciding factor.
After losing to Casamayor, Santos will be determined in this fight. He feels he beat Casamayor and that the decision was a hometown decision in Miami. It boils down to a very dangerous fight for both men.
One thing Peden does wrong is that he sometimes sticks his chin out, but being so quick, he can get away with it, but he won't want to play around with a very determined Santos.
Peden's advantages: Great skills, good power, speed, good defense. Sometimes may stick his chin out.
Santos' advantages: Experience, tenacity, effective right hand.
Peden's disadvantages: Inexperience, swells around the eye, unproven chin although according to him, he has only been knocked down once and that was as an amateur. First big test.
Santos' disadvantages: Chin might be a question mark against Peden. Might be too slow for the very quick Peden. Depends too much on the right hand.
Final prediction: Peden struggles heavily in his first big test, but passes his exam with a 10th round TKO.
I'll be honest. I think the Oscar De La Hoya fight took away any remenants of what was left of Oba Carr's career. He didn't look very good against Frankie Randall before fighting De La Hoya. And against De La Hoya, he stepped up and gave one last great performance, but would ultimately lose by devestating KO when Oscar nailed him with his left hook.
I think Campas has more left and therefore make him a slight favorite to win. Campas' agressive style and good punching power should lead him to a late knockout victory.
However, if Carr can find some way to dig in and find some resevoir of fight left, he can win, but if he does, I don't expect it to be a convincing win. At best, I see Carr winning a razor-thin points victory, or maybe a cuts stoppage. I'll be very surprised if Carr wins convincingly. In any case, I expect Carr to give it his all because I've never seen him do otherwise and this should make it a good fight.
Campas by late rounds TKO or points.
This should be a tremendous fight between two young great fighters.
I had the chance to interview both fighters in November when they were in Miami to promote their fight at the Miccosukee Indian Gaming during the Joel Casamayor-David Santos card and naturally, both feel that they're going to win.
"I was surprised Tito that picked me to follow up the De La Hoya fight," Reid said. "But Tito wants to be the best and to be the best he's gotta beat the best."
When asked if this was his biggest test, Reid replied: "Of course this is my biggest challenge yet. I'm confident I'll do to Tito what De La Hoya couldn't do. And that's to knock Tito out. Tito has fought De La Hoya and Whitaker and neither of them are like David Reid."
Trinidad, who was with his father Felix Sr., stated: "I'm going to be the Junior Middleweight champion. I want to be the best pound-for-pound fighter in the world. I have to work hard, but this is a great opportunity. I train for every combat and March 4, I'll be the new champion."
Quite obviously, the controversy of the De La Hoya-Trinidad match was a presence and still an issue today, but Reid didn't want to address who he felt won the DLH-Trinidad matchup: "All I know is that Tito got his hand raised. I got no say in the decision."
Tito had this to say about the De La Hoya controversy: "I was sure I was going to beat De La Hoya and I did. The controversy stems from the De La Hoya fans. The world knows I won and if we ever fight again, I'll beat him again."
Trinidad-Reid could go either way.
Reid is very fast, has an efficient left jab, and has a devestating right hand.
Trinidad is the more experienced. Tito also possesses an excellent left jab, but he can punch hard with either hand.
Both chins are questionable. Reid has been knocked down by James Coker and Kevin Kelley, all of which were flash knockdowns. Trinidad has been down 5 times. It is said that all of them were flash knockdowns.
Adopting an evasive strategy ala his fight with Keith Mullings, Reid could frustrate Trinidad, but he may not win the judges favor as was the case with De La Hoya. He may find himself having to be more agressive.
Trinidad will need to protect his chin. Reid has been known to land brutal combinations and has an infamous right hand.
Reid has to protect the left side of his face because the droopy eyelid will become a factor in this fight if he's unable to see Tito's explosive right hand. Not to mention Tito's ability to go to the body very effectively. If Reid is smart, he'll adopt a boxing strategy and try to land the right hand ASAP to finish the bout as quickly as possible.
So who did I pick? I think it's a toss up and it could come down to who hits who first hard.
Reid's advantages: Devestating right hand, good combinations, fast footwork. Already comfortable at 154.
Trinidad's advantages: Experience, power with each hand, good boxer.
Reid's disadvantages: Inexperienced, droopy eyelid may be a factor. Could lose decision if he adopts a "boxing" approach.
Trinidad's disadvantages: Moving up in weight; questionable chin at 147, even bigger questionable chin at 154; can't seem to cut off the ring too well and against Reid, that could be a factor.
I think both fighters will probably get knocked down. Although Isee Trinidad scoring an "off balance" knockdown while I see Reid scoring a damaging knockdown. I can't make a firm decision on a pick without having second thoughts, but I don't want to conclude my analysis without taking a stand: Reid by 7th round KO.*
* I initially picked Reid, then Trinidad, now I'm back to Reid.
Everyone is expecting a war and with good reason. They're two hard punching warriors. Morales is undefeated and has been on a roll, beating the likes of Daniel Zaragoza, Wayne McCullough and two-time Barrera conqueror Junior Jones.
Some time has past since Jones-Barrera. Jones was past his best when he fought Morales and Jones-Barrera could just be a case where Jones simply had Barrera's number. Barrera hasn't lost otherwise. This is the opportunity Barrera has waited for: a chance to make a statement to the boxing world by beating one of its elite, undefeated Mexican fighters. Morales hasn't fought a big puncher yet, so his chin will be proven here. It should be a close one.
Morales' advantages: Great power. Some good fights under his belt. Very active in the ring, never stops throwing punches.
Barrera's advantages: Good power. Experience. Will to win.
Morales' disadvantages: Chin never really tested. First big fight against a puncher. Most of the big names he fought were past his prime, (i.e Zaragoza and Jones).
Barrera's disadvantages: Has been KO'd before.
I'll go on a limb and pick Morales by decision, possibly late rounds stoppage. One thing is for sure, a knockout by either man would not surprise me.
You can say anything you want about Mike, but he still has his punch and that should be enough against Francis.
Francis was actually able to give Vitali Klitschko a bit of fight. Well, as good a fight as you're going to give for a fighter who will eventually lose by 2nd round TKO. Still, Francis was able to avoid shots from a bigger fighter with a longer reach. The problem with Francis is that he was hurt anytime a solid punch did connect. Eventually, he would succumb to a right hand behind the ear.
Francis might just be able to give a shorter Tyson a moving target and could very well last a few rounds.
Hey, Tyson may swing and miss a lot these days, but something is bound to land. And when it does, I see Tyson winning via KO.
I got Mike Tyson winning inside 4 rounds.
Those of you who have know me know that I think Mosley has been getting overhyped for a fighter who hasn't accomplished a lot. I was hoping that we'd continue to see Mosley step up the quality opposition after the Rivera fight and I was very disappointed to find out that Wise was to be his next opponent.
Rabid Mosley fans should take my criticism as a compliment. I think Mosley is so talented that he could and should be fighting a higher ranked opponent. Not that I think that he should rush it and fight De La Hoya or Trinidad, but an Oba Carr or James Page would be more sensible than Wise. Carr or Page fights would simply prove more.
Mind you, this is not to say that Wise is a bad fighter, but all we've seen him do that means anything is an upset win over a well past his prime Julio Cesar Chavez. He also lacks the power to truly test Shane.
This is a lose-lose situation for Mosley. He either loses a fight in an upset, or if he wins, as we expect him to, he doesn't prove much.
Hopefully, Wise will at least make a good account for himself in a fight that many oddsmakers are stating he has virtually no chance whatsoever to win.
I expect Mosley to prevail by midrounds stoppage.
Coming off a one-sided defeat to Terron Millet in the Jr. Welterweight division, which seems to have been caused by his draining to make that weight, Phillips comes into the Forrest bout as a big question mark.
We don't know if Phillips is a shot fighter, or if he simply drained himself too much for the Millet bout. This fight should answer that question.
But Forrest is also a question mark. He's been heavily hyped by ESPN2 and he has looked average in beating Santiago Samaniego and Adrian Stone in the two biggest fights he has had so far.
My guess is that if Forrest wins, he'll still be a question mark. Most people will say he beat an old-Phillips since they don't know what Phillips has left.
You have to go with Forrest as the favorite in this fight because Phillips is the bigger question mark.
An intriguing bout, but I have to lean toward Forrest due to Phillips' disastrous last fight. I'll still go out on a limb and say that Phillips' right hand will test Forrest, if not, even beat him.
Good fight. Both are intelligent fighters and both are winners with a winner's mentality.
From my perspective, both are coming off losses. I had Tapia a close loser to Paulie Ayala, and I thought Julio was given a gift decision against Julio Gamboa.
I think Tapia has too much energy and is too busy for Julio. Tapia's counterpunching ability will be extremely prominent in this fight. He is hungry and willing.
Julio is sure to give Tapia a challenge. Against Gamboa, Julio was rocked constantly throughout the fight, but he never went down and constantly switched from southpaw to conventional stances almost effortlessly. And while Gamboa usuakly outlanded him, Julio was able to fight back by scoring with some power shots that rocked Gamboa's world.
Tapia isn't a knockout puncher, so I don't expect a KO win for him. Tapia also has a great chin, so I don't expect to him to lose via KO either. It should be an outstanding, close fight.
Johnny Tapia by decision in a great start for the boxing year.
I haven't seen much in Telesco that would give Roy too many problems. However, Telesco has wanted Jones very badly and so his desire to fight Jones may allow him step up and give a very good performance.
Jones is quite obviously one of the best fighters in the world. Practically tied with Oscar De La Hoya as far as I'm concerned, so I expect Jones to win.
I got Roy Jones winning by late KO or via unanimous decision.
What a magnificent undercard bout for Roy Jones-David Telesco!
We know more about Izon than we do about Jefferson, but if Jefferson's fight against Maurice Harris is any indication, this one should be a war.
Izon has made his name in tough efforts against the hardpunching trio of: Lou Savarese, David Tua, and Michael Grant.
Izon would give Tua one of his first really hard fights, but would lose by a dramatic 12th round KO when Tua connected with his famed left hook.
Against Savarese would come Izon's biggest win. Savarese, coming off a razor-thin split decision loss to "Big" George Foreman, was looking to turn his career back to the W's instead of L's, but was surprised when Izon blasted him with a right hand that sent him crumbling. Lou would get up several times, but he was way too hurt and Izon would win by 5th KO.
In comes behemoth Michael Grant, heavily advertised as the next great heavyweight. Izon would land several thudding shots that had little effect, but Grant caught Izon with a 20+ punch combination in the 5th that prompted a stoppage defeat for Izon.
Izon followed up the Grant loss with two extremely difficult, albeit exciting, KO wins over Darroll Wilson and Terrance Lewis, both of whom had Izon hurt.
Izon is a proven warrior and will no doubt present Jefferson with yet another hard test. The question resides in what kind of chin Jefferson has. We know Jefferson punches like hell. We know Jefferson is a resilient fighter. We know Jefferson has the guts. What we don't know is if it'll be enough against an always willing, power punching machine like Izon.
It should loads of fun finding out. Derrick Jefferson in 5.
I covered the Hopkins-Echols conference at Miccosukee Indian Gaming and both fighters were all class. This should be Hopkins' biggest test in a long time for he is facing Echols who has won all of his fights by KO.
Echols could be the man to beat Hopkins on the verge of winning his 10th title defense. This isn't any ordinary mandatory fight. Echols, the mandatory challenger, has a very real shot at beating Hopkins.
I think Hopkins' experience, ring smarts, and will to win will get him the victory he craves. He isn't taking Echols lightly and that's a good thing. Echols knows he in the biggest fight of his career so far, so he'll be ready.
Bernard Hopkins via late rounds or points.
This is Klitschko's biggest test by far.
Obed Sullivan is a tough hombre and he's there to go the distance.
The way I see it, Sullivan can score the upset if he's ready and willing. The problem with Sullivan though has been just that. He's either too laid back, (Rahman-Sullivan) or sometimes he comes to fight (Grant-Sullivan). He's inconsistent and therefore, predicting a Sullivan victory is always a tentative decision.
I have to go with Vitali, but unlike many enthusiasts, I'm giving Obed a chance.
Sullivan could've beaten Hasim Rahman and Jesse Ferguson, but he was uninspired in both of those outings and the fact that he believed he beat Ferguson tells me that his corner may be suspect.
Sullivan gave Michael Grant Grant's toughest fight up until Andrew Golota because Sullivan came to fight. By the late rounds, Grant was slightly ahead and it was conceivable that Sullivan just might be able to squeak by a decision if he was cautious and active enough, but Grant caught Sullivan with monstrous right hand right on the button and it was the beginning of the end for Sullivan.
Right now, Sullivan has much more experience than Klitschko, but his inconsistency make me tentative to pick him.
A tentative pick for Klitschko.
I love both of these guys. You can always count on John Brown to put on a display of guts in the ring. He dodges no one and he comes to fight.
Diego Corrales is a very talented fighter and I saw his rise to the championship even as he was just working his way up. With an impressive and very tough step up against Roberto Garcia, I like that he elects to fight Brown in his next assignment. A lot of other so-called champions would've probably preferred an easier fight.
I see Corrales winning this fight with his vastly superior reach and good power. If anyone at Junior Lightweight has the ability to take Brown out, it's Corrales. But let me tell you, knocking Brown out is no easy task. Brown is one tough nut to crack and I thought he was giving Shane Mosley a tougher time in their fight than advertised by the HBO team and that's considering that Mosley outweighed Brown by like 20 pounds.
Stylistically, I see Corrales taking a lopsided decision, maybe even a late knockout or stoppage, but I don't expect it to be easy. I expect a Golota-Sanders type fight where Golota takes almost every round, but pays a price for it.
I've spoken to several people who have told me that they think Wright will score an upset over Vargas. Now, I haven't seen enough of Wright to disagree vehemently, but I will say that he must be one hell of a fighter if several have picked him to beat Vargas. I say that because I think very highly of Vargas and think he's on his way to becoming a household name if he hasn't already.
I can't make a firm pick on this fight because I haven't seen too much of Wright, but I will still go out and say that I pick Vargas to win this fight.
If I were Lewis, I'd do the exact same thing in the rematch that I did in fight #1. Unfortunately, Lewis is being pressured too force the action in this fight and he's in a classic Catch 22 situation. He can't practice "The Sweet Science" without boring fans, but he can't go after Holyfield and risk a KO loss. Therefore, if I were Emmanuel Steward, the first thing I'd tell Lennox is to forget about the fans as soon as he climbs in the ring, because it's Lennox's fight at that point and he can't allow anyone to influence what he knows is right.
My feeling is that after being blatantly robbed in the first fight, Lewis may feel that he has to go for the KO. It's an unfortunate side effect from the corruption in this sport because Lewis should have been been champion coming off the first fight and he shouldn't have to feel to have to put himself at unneccesary risk for the critics to accept him.
I give Holyfield a good chance at winning the rematch for the aforementioned reason, but also and more importantly because I feel Holyfield will be much better prepared.
If Holyfield has proven anything it's to never count him out. So while Lewis should beat Holyfield, I can't and won't rule out the likely possiblity that Evander can go back to the well again and I'll tell you why.
First, I think Holyfield beat himself when he made up his mind that he was taking Lewis out in 3. That was the first time that I had a real gut feeling he would lose the first fight. It turned out to be true because after the 3rd round, the fight was the same round after round and the pace was what Lewis dictated it to be.
Second, Holyfield now knows he can't put his faith on delusions of grandeur and has to put his feet on the ground and train his ass off for this fight. Therefore, I think Holyfield will be better prepared.
Third, if Lewis gets aggressive, he will be putting himself at great risk by leaving himself vulnerable to Holyfield's infamous counter-punching ability and his infamous "comebacks" in fights he is losing. If that happens, I expect Evander to knock Lewis down or badly wobble him. As I said prior to fight #1, Holyfield has a knack for knocking down or badly wobbling the best chins in the division. Maybe Lewis' chin is better than we all anticipated, but if Holyfield can wobble Foreman, Holmes, Tyson, Bowe and Mercer, he can wobble anyone.
In order for Lewis to win, and if he is smart, he will do exactly he did in the first fight, which is to keep Holyfield at bay with the left jab and fight strictly on the outside. Yes, it makes for boring fights, but Lewis has to think about himself and not the fans in the ring. If Holyfield wobbles, keep away because that's when he's the most dangerous. Anyone who criticizes Lewis for doing what he did in the first fight doesn't know Holyfield, doesn't know boxing or is too biased against Lewis, or all three.
On a side note, I'd like to add that I think Lewis is one of the most underrated and underappreciated fighters in boxing today. He proved a lot of people wrong in the first fight. I always told people that Lewis is a really good fighter and I was glad to see him prove them wrong.
Tale of the Tape:
Holyfield's advantages: A wealth of experience, good power, good left hook, dangerous brawler, comes back when you least expect it, tremendous heart, resilience and will to win, and a propensity to wobble the best chins in the division. (Right: Holyfield becomes the only fighter to knock the iron-chinned Mercer down.)
Lewis' advantages: Determination, ring smarts, effective left jab, possesses KO power with right hand, good boxing ability. (Pictured right: Lewis slugged it out and won a close 10 round decision in his war with Ray Mercer, proving he can go to war.)
Holyfield's disadvantages: Above all, age and ring wear, too many wars; has slowed down; might have read too many of his own press clippings as evidenced by his overconfidence in fight #1.
Lewis' disadvantages: May be overconfident after overwhelming Holyfield the last time, may feel he has to resort to brawling to impress judges after the robbery he suffered last March and thereby putting himself at risk of Holyfield's power; suspect chin.
Final pick:
The rematch is a coin-tosser with so many possible outcomes, it's very hard to be firm on a pick, but I'll go with Holyfield as I did in the first fight. Not because Lewis is a bad fighter, but because Holyfield has proven over and over that you can never count him out and has done much better in rematches. Lewis may feel that he has to brawl and that could be a catastrophic tactical error on Lewis' part.
