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The Top 100 Prospects By: Mike Gullo Visit his website The Minor First 1. Joe Mauer- C MIN - This year my list starts out with Mauer. He combines natural ability with excellent baseball skills to give you everything you look for in a hitter. He'll be a high average hitter who draws walks and will hit homers. Watching Mauer long toss in the outfield, it's very easy to see his great arm strength and he draws raves about the way he handles pitchers. Even with all the good things I've said about Mauer, there's bound to be some bad aspects to any player. In Joe's case it's in his foot speed. We're definitely talking catcher's speed. 2. Greg Miller- LHP LA - Miller is a very mature pitcher… as evidenced by his success in the Florida State League (and even briefly into Double A) at the age of just 18! He throws hard for a lefty (90+ mph range) and already has good command of four pitches. He's a very aggressive pitcher that should fill out his 6'5" frame and become not only a workhorse, by an intimidating presence on the mound. It's too late to say he'll move quickly… he's already done it. 3. Alexis Rios- OF TOR - Rios had a fantastic breakout season in the Eastern League last summer. You can't argue with his tools. But, he is still raw in some important areas. His knowledge of the strike zone isn't Major League ready and while he has very good speed, he at times seems like a novice on the bases. He has so far offset the prior by having great plate coverage and he has had a knack for making consistent hard contact. You don't often see 6'6" center fielders in the Majors. I'm assuming he'll eventually be a corner outfielder. Rios could become a mega-star, yet I still consider him risky. His awesome performance in winter ball vaulted him over Jeremy Reed as the top OF. 4. Jeremy Reed- OF CHW - It's easy to focus on Reed's shortcomings… his lack of true power or any other great tool. What Reed does is just produce. He has what I think is just as important as any of the major tools scouts talk about… he has "baseball skills". Hitting just comes natural to him. There's no doubt he's the top White Sox prospect and he should be ready for Chicago soon. A month ago, I had Reed as the top OF in the Minors. Based on Alexis Rios' great winter ball performance, he was able to just edge out Reed. 5. Zack Greinke- RHP KC - Outstanding young pitcher that has a good arm and great understanding of what he's doing on the mound. His poise and composure are just beyond compare. And, he's just turned 20! The Royals may have another Brett Saberhagen on their hands. Considering what he's accomplished already in his brief pro career, the Royals might be tempted to test him in the Majors this summer. I'm ranking Greinke as the best right-handed pitcher in the Minors. 6. BJ Upton- SS TB - I saw Upton a few times early in 2003 and saw a lot of promise. At the time, I wrote to the effect of "it's too early to consider him an elite prospect". Ever since that time, Upton went on a "rest of the year" tear. He's a fast runner using long graceful strides, has a very strong arm and his plate discipline is outstanding for a player his age. Those were the positives I saw in him. I thought he was too skinny and needed to add some muscle to be a power threat. I thought his consistency and ability to make the routine plays on defense needed a lot of work. If he improves in these two areas, he could be a superstar in the Majors. 7. Andy Marte- 3B ATL - It's fairly unanimous that Marte is the best third baseman in the Minors. His power is already here, his plate discipline has greatly improved and he plays what some call "gold glove" defense. He could have a huge year in Greenville this summer, after producing well in a tough hitter's park in 2003. Heck, you'd have to think half a huge year in Greenville would land him in Atlanta. I don't think we're going to see him to any sort of Wilson Betemit impersonation. 8. Edwin Jackson- RHP LA - Jackson is one of those pitchers that can hit the mid-90's when he doesn't even look like he's trying. He needs to refine his secondary pitches, but he has the arm to succeed. Look for him to be in the LA rotation out of Spring Training. Could be one of the elite starters in the NL in coming years. 9. Justin Morneau- 1B MIN - Big-time homerun hitter that should eventually find his way into the middle of the Twins' order. His drop of a few spots (from last year's #4 ranking) is definitely not based on his 2003 performance… he hit 22 homers in not much over half a season in the Minors, before getting called to Minnesota. It's more a statement of how strong the players on this year's list are. 10. Ervin Santana- RHP ANA - Has one of the most electric arms in the Minors. Not only does he throw hard (he can hit the mid 90's... some say higher), but his slider is a nasty complimentary pitch. His change is still in the development stage, but improving. His lean frame has held up well so far, though it is of minor concern. He's one of the elite pitching prospects in the Minors and ranks behind only Greinke and Jackson on this list as far as right-handed pitchers are concerned. 11. Grady Sizemore- OF CLE- Last year when I ranked Sizemore at #56, I thought he was on the edge of becoming an elite prospect. Now, there's no doubt about it. His approach at the plate is outstanding and he should become a very good all around offensive player for Cleveland. I liken his all out play in center field to that of Jim Edmonds... meaning he has the ability to excel there. It's his weak arm that makes left field look like his probably destination. 12. Josh Barfield- 2B SD - Easily won MVP honors in the California League last summer... his 46 doubles, 16 homers and 128 RBI were the biggest reasons. Yeah, he's an offensive second baseman, but his defense has been steadily improving and he'll likely be able to remain at the position and be at least average. I think Scott Hairston's bat has a higher ceiling, but since he's not likely to stay at second base long-term, Barfield has to be considered the top second baseman in the Minors right now. 13. Casey Kotchman- 1B ANA - I saw Kotchman a few times in Major League spring training last March. He not only didn't look overwhelmed… he looked darn good, as he's such a great hitter. I see a lot of Will Clark in him. Injuries have slowed him down, going all the way back to his high school days. That's the only thing that's going to keep him from becoming a star. Are all these injuries flukes or is there something to being injury-prone? 14. Scott Kazmir- LHP NYM - I didn't get to see Kazmir pitch in 2003… he was moved up to the Florida State League by the time I saw Capital City play. So, I'll use some words by my friend, Ted Lukacs, who did see him a few times. "He is just 6' 170, but he throws in the mid-90's. He also has a good slider and an off speed pitch. He has a very fluid, easy motion that doesn't appear to put strain on his arm. His velocity must come from arm strength and good mechanics. He's a power lefty with good control." Kazmir could easily become an ace-type pitcher. 15. Bobby Crosby- SS OAK - Crosby had a monster year in his first crack at Triple A pitching. It was better than anyone expected and my opinion is that it's probably not necessarily a sign of what kind of hitter he'll be in the Majors. I still see him as the smart, steady player I described on last year's list. However, this year there is reason to expect a better bat. The Oakland SS job is his to lose in the post-Tejada era. 16. Cole Hamels- LHP PHI - Hamels was simply the best pitcher I saw in 2003. Hamels' fastball lives in the 89-91 range, though he can crank it up a little higher when it's necessary. His best pitch is his changeup. His arm action on the pitch perfectly duplicates that of his fastball and this 80 mph pitch is devastating. On top of that, he has a silky smooth delivery and great movement on all his pitches. Those elements enabled him to strike out 43% of the batters he faced during his time in the Sally League. 17. Delmon Young- OF TB - Young's mega-power bat gets him on this list before he's even played a real pro game. It seems to me there's more than just a chance he could be in Double A by season's end while being just a year removed from High School. That would be right in line with his prior track record of always playing against much older competition (and succeeding against it). I can't wait to see just how good his bat can be. 18. Jeff Mathis- C ANA - Mathis is proving to be a real offensive force. He could even rival or exceed Mauer in that area. Though he's not going to be as complete a player as Mauer, he is a good athlete and should become a better defensive player as he gains experience behind the plate. Remember, he is a former middle infielder. The Angels also rave about his leadership qualities. 19. Rickie Weeks- 2B MIL - Just drafted last June, Weeks is definitely on the fast track. He not only has incredible raw tools, but has also shown the ability to be a good hitter. Should settle in at second base after his future position was in doubt. I'm looking for him to be an offensive force, not just with the bat, but on the bases. Could he become Rickey Henderson playing in the infield? Weeks looks like a great player to have for your Rotisserie leagues. 20. David Wright- 3B NYM - A deep mid-season slump kept his overall stats down from what they could have been, but they were still very good at: .270 average with 39 doubles and 15 homers, not to mention 72 walks. It wouldn't surprise me to see Scott Rolen-type offensive numbers from him in the Majors, though that may be a little optimistic. On top of all that, he also plays very nice defense. 21. Jason Bay- OF PIT - Bay is in a good situation with the Pirates… he's Major League ready and is with a team that has an opening for him. He should be a better than average hitter as early as this summer. Look for .290-25-90 seasons from him… also count on 80ish walks. Off-season shoulder surgery might mean he won't be ready for Spring Training. It should only be a minor setback. Bay is one of the most certain bets on this list to reach his ceiling. 22. Adam Wainwright- RHP STL - Wainwright's numbers over the past few years tell the story pretty well. He's enjoyed a lot of success and has improved his command along the way. He's also been less dominant. He's tall and thin, so he'll need to fill out to become a Major League workhorse. Has the stuff to be an upper level starter. Should continue his level at a time ascent by spending this summer in Triple A. 23. Franklin Gutierrez- OF LA - Of all the outfielders in the upper portion of this list, Gutierrez is one of the few that actually projects as a center fielder. He has that power/speed package that teams crave. After a hot start in the Florida State League, pitchers found some holes in his swing and temporarily exploited them. He got back on track and even enjoyed good success in the Southern League. LA isn't known for teaching good plate discipline, so that could hurt his already borderline ability in that area. 24. James Loney- 1B LA - Loney is one of those rare high school draftees that began his first full pro season in the Florida State League… indeed the fast track. At first glance his .276 average seems only fair, but when you consider the fact that his classmates were (at best) down in the Sally League, it starts to look much better. He also had 31 doubles. Loney is a fine athlete and could probably even play in the outfield. Heck, it would be a shame to waste his arm at first base. Remember, he was a pretty good high school pitcher and some teams saw him as more of a pitcher as a pro. 25. JJ Hardy- SS MIL - Milwaukee is hoping for another Robin Yount in Hardy and there is reason to make a valid case for comparison. Hardy is sure-handed defensively and even has a stronger arm. He doesn't have better than mediocre speed for his position, but I really like the way he's progressed with the bat. Could make the jump from Double A to the Majors this spring and become an above average Major League shortstop in the coming years. 26. Clint Nageotte- RHP SEA - Outstanding slider… maybe the best in the Minors… and a plus fastball. That combo used to make me wonder if the bullpen wasn't in his future. I like the fact that he's improved as he's moved up and it took a trip to the Texas League for him to finally get his H/IP ratio into the good range. Now, I think he can and will be in the Mariners' rotation. Continued development with his change would be the icing on the cake. 27. Prince Fielder- 1B MIL - One of the most publicized of the lower level Minor Leaguers, Fielder not only has plenty of power… he's also a surprisingly good overall hitter. Could move very quickly. Fielder also has his father's body type and will have to keep that in check if he wants to be more than a DH (something Milwaukee doesn't have luxury of in their lineup). He's forced two other good first base prospects (Hart and Nelson) to other positions. 28. Scott Hairston- 2B ARI - Despite his sub par 2003 season, this kid can and will hit. There are plenty that question whether he can be a Major League second baseman and I am among that group. If I thought he would stay at the position, he'd be rated higher than the just drafted Rickie Weeks. As a left fielder though, he may only be just another good bat among many. 29. Jeremy Hermida- OF FLA - Hermida was one of the best looking position players I saw in 2003. He reminds me quite a bit of Rocco Baldelli in appearance. Both are tall and thin, with very athletic builds. Hermida has much better command of the strike zone than Baldelli ever will and should rival or exceed his power. He also has a true right fielders' arm... very strong. I think you're looking at a star in the making. Don't get me wrong though... I'm not anticipating a Baldelli-esque rise through Florida's system. 30. Guillermo Quiroz- C TOR - Formerly thought of as just a good defensive catcher, Quiroz' bat came around in 2003. That has elevated him into the elite prospect range. They don't come any tougher… he's playing the perfect position considering his makeup. His power numbers, both in the Eastern League and in winter ball make me think Javy Lopez. 31. Jeff Franceour- OF ATL - Most are ranking him higher than Hermida… I know I'm the exception. Both are great prospects and it is a tough choice. Both are very similar in a lot of ways. The differences? Franceour bats right-handed, plays center and doesn't currently possess Hermida's plate discipline. I would say Franceour appears to be a slightly better athlete and he plays a more premium position. Both could be stars. 32. Chin-hui Tsao- RHP COL - I know I should hold it against Tsao that he plays in the Rockies' system. But that is a tough place to pitch and I guess I can't help it. Tsao has nasty stuff and good control of it, although that wasn't readily apparent in Colorado. I just can't find it in me to place a Rockies' pitcher any higher than this on the list… no matter how good he is. 33. Dallas McPhearson- 3B ANA - Who doesn't love his bat. He's a big guy and his excellent power should come as a surprise to nobody. Glaus blocks him at third, but McPhearson's bat will enable him to play other positions (namely right field or first base) and still be an asset. 34. Blake Hawksworth- RHP STL - Signing as a draft and follow in 2002, he's already become one of the Card's top prospects… maybe even their best had they not just acquired Wainwright. Hawksworth has a slightly plus fastball and a good change that he consistently throws for strikes. He has that warrior mentality that will suit him nicely as a pitcher. 35. Ryan Madson- RHP PHI - Last year I called him the best "pitcher" I saw all year. He followed that up with a nice season in Triple A and a couple good innings in Philly. I never considered his ceiling as high as a lot of pitchers on this list, but he gets points for being Major League ready. I could easily see him earning a permanent spot in the Phillie's rotation some time this season. He's a towering pitcher and you've got to love that changeup. 36. Travis Blackley- LHP SEA - An Australian, Blackley has been playing baseball for less than 5 years. Still, after working through some early mechanical issues, he was untouchable in a good hitter's league (Texas League). Upper 80's velocity is the best he can muster and that's fine for a lefty. His curveball is downright nasty and his change was equally effective in fooling hitters… to the tune of 144 K's. 37. Angel Guzman- RHP CHC - It's too bad his 2003 season was cut short due to an injury. After he just missed making this list last January, I was very impressed upon seeing him in Spring Training last March. I liked his poise and he had good command of all his pitches. I remember commenting at the time that he looked like a very good fielder and he even swung the bat better that most pitchers. If his arm is sound this spring, he's not far from the Majors. 38. Alberto Callaspo- 2B ANA - This kid is an amazing contact hitter. As proof, just check out his total of 42 K's over the past 2 seasons (spanning 813 AB). He's got some speed and gaps power (38 doubles in 2003). He also plays good defense and even could play short respectably. If you look at his numbers, they eerily look a lot like those of Rod Carew. Wow, is that ever a lot to live up to. I just have a feeling he could be a special player. 39. Dustin McGowan- RHP TOR - I haven't been a great fan of McGowan in the past. He had such poor command, I didn't think his very good stuff would overcome it without major improvement. That improvement came last summer. Just like turning on a switch, this former thrower became a pretty refined pitcher. He has 3 very good pitches… plus fastball, good curve and change… and he can now throw them all for strikes. 40. Chad Tracy- 3B ARI - I was a little skeptical about Tracy last year, but he had a very similar season in Triple A. He's a line drive, contact hitter type that should produce a good average and a lot of doubles. I think he's ready for the Majors right now, but there's little doubt ARIona under appreciates him. Acquiring Richie Sexson to keep Shea Hillenbrand at third means Tracy doesn't appear to be in their master plan. There's no reason to think he won't add more power down the road. He might have to get his chance with a different team. 41. Gavin Floyd- RHP PHI - I'm still waiting for Floyd to have that breakout year where he explodes and proves the scouts right. I don't like his regression in the Florida State League. That's such a pitcher's league… I expected him to have more success there. His curve is absolutely awesome and he has a plus fastball, though I'm starting to wonder if he'll be able to put it all together and be the ace the Phillies hope for. 42. Chris Snelling- OF SEA - The epitome of a "baseball skills" player. Snelling was born to hit. What he lacks in tools, he makes up for in effort. The reason for dropping him in the rankings is my concern that he might become more of a pre-2003 Bill Mueller than a batting champion contender. Spending so much time on the DL, is 350 AB, a .290 average with 8 homers going to be his norm? 43. Jose Lopez- SS SEA - Can it really be true that Lopez has only just turned 20? A 19-year old shortstop doesn't normally hit 35 doubles and 13 homers in Double A without garnering a huge amount of publicity. That's what Lopez did last summer. He'll never be a high walk player, but he at least makes very good contact. Some in Seattle think he's a perfect fit at short, but I'm not sure … is a move to second or third in his future? 44. John Maine- RHP BAL - In delivery, appearance and explosiveness of his fastball, Maine reminds me somewhat of Mark Prior… minus the leg strength. He's always had a good fastball, but that was all he had. In 2003, he seems to have greatly refined his command and has shown flashes of good secondary pitches. Even at that, his fastball is clearly his best pitch. Further improvement with his secondary pitches could make him a frontline pitcher. 45. Ryan Wagner- RHP CIN - Has the stuff to be a starter, but I think the Reds will keep him in the bullpen. Much has been said about this guy's slider… it's one of the best around. He was just draft last June and has already had some limited success in the Majors. 46. Corey Hart- 3B MIL - If Hart can improve his defense enough to stay at third, he could be a huge asset for the Brewers. His frame reminds me a lot of former Brewer, Richie Sexson. Hart runs much better than Sexson, but doesn't have his plate discipline… and that's an area he'll need to greatly improve in if he wants to approach Sexson's offensive output. A lot of potential with Hart, but 2 big if's. 47. David DeJesus- OF - KC Some might call him a poor man's Carlos Beltran and that's not far off the mark. DeJesus hasn't ever had a problem putting up good numbers in the Minors. He has had a very hard time staying healthy enough to do it. He could be a nice addition to the upper part of the Royals' lineup this year. 48. Michael Restovich- OF MIN - I've always been a fan of his. I like his upside more than even Cuddyer's. If the Twins could overlook his high strikeout totals and give him a shot, I think he could be a very good and exciting player. He's more than just a power hitter. 49. Denny Bautista- RHP BAL - Yes, he is 'very' projectable and still real young. I know the guy regularly works in the 95 mph range with his fastball and he does flash a very good curve… I just don't view him as finished a product as most people do. In one way, I wonder if he's not destined to be a reliever… his command is not currently near the level his stuff is. On the other hand, the fact that he can take good velocity deep into games makes me think he's going to be given every chance to be a starter. Your typical high risk, high return pitching prospect. 50. JD Durbin- RHP MIN - Minnesota's best pitching prospect, Durbin's stock soared in 2003 as his velocity increased. He's still in the learning process with his changeup and will need it in the Majors. If not, he'd make for a good late inning reliever. He's a fierce competitor on the mound… I guess it's his game-face. I met him and his girlfriend on a day he wasn't pitching and he seems like a very nice young man. 51. Khalil Greene- SS SD - "Will he remain at shortstop?" is about the only question mark with Greene. His biggest asset is obviously his bat… he's a very good hitter. I think he should stay at short. Though he'll be merely adequate there defensively, he will have a plus bat. 52. Mike Hinckley- LHP MON - He wasn't looking real good early in the 2003 season, but he finished very strong… wrapping it up with 4 excellent starts in the Florida State League. I don't see another Expos pitching prospect that's near him right now. I don't see his ceiling being as high as some other lefties on this list (not even as high as some of the ones further down), but I see his likelihood of being a good Major Leaguer as fairly high. 53. Jesse Crain- RHP MIN - Back in college, he was a respectable shortstop in addition to being U. of Houston's closer. Now, there's no doubt about his future position… it's in the back end of the Twins' bullpen. There are those that feel Crain has one of the best arms in the Minors. He regularly hits 95 mph and adds a good slider to the mix. 54. Felix Pie- OF CHC - The youngest player in the Midwest League last summer, Pie was up to the challenge. He hit .285 and played excellent defense. He's still somewhat on the scrawny side, but has the frame where the Cubs are expecting him to become a power threat down the road. There really aren't any glaring holes in his game, though he is still years from the Majors and a lot can happen. 55. Matt Peterson- RHP NYM - Once again I'm deferring to my friend and St. Lucie Mets' frequenter, Ted Lukacs for this info: "Peterson throws hard and has good complementary stuff. He frustrated us for a stretch this season by nibbling and getting behind batters. When he trusted his stuff, he was almost untouchable." He'll head to Double A with a chance to be an elite prospect. 56. Taylor Buchholtz- RHP HOU - As far as curveballs go, they don't get much better than his. The rest of his offerings are less effective, but still decent. Buchholtz strikes me as your typical innings eating starter. The type that'll log 200 IP in a lot of years… but never be considered one of the best pitchers in the Majors. I also see him as a fairly likely bet to reach this level. 57. Dioner Navarro- C NYY - The only Yankee on this list! Navarro's hitting has improved… making him more than just a defensive whiz. Looks like he'll be more of a singles/doubles hitter that makes good contact than an impact player. 58. Brandon Claussen- LHP CIN - I remember a couple years ago seeing Claussen's first Double A start. I compared several aspects of his game to Barry Zito… unfortunately, his curve wasn't one of them. Since then, Claussen has battled injuries and has been up and down. He's got a shot at the Red's rotation this year and they seem to like his chances, but I'm not as high on him as I once was. 59. Joe Blanton- RHP OAK - Made quick work of Midwest League hitters in his debut. But, at his age, he should have. His stuff is decent, though not overpowering. He does have very good command. I know he also threw 30-something excellent innings in the Texas League… I just want to see continued success in upper levels before I think of him as a future Major League stud. He is the A's top pitching prospect though. 60. Adam LaRoche- 1B ATL - Great defender, plays within himself and has the poise of a veteran. Could be the Braves' first baseman as early as this spring. Don't look for a big-time slugger, but rather somewhere between a John Olerud/Mark Grace type first baseman. 61. John Van Benschoten- RHP PIT - I've been calling his move to the mound a mistake ever since he was drafted. Even last year, I was skeptical of his early success as a full time pitcher. Now, I think he's somewhat won me over. I'm in the minority in not viewing him as a future 1-2 starter. I see him as more of a big strong innings eater than a stud. 62. Jason Lane- OF HOU - Will this year be the year Lane gets a "real" chance? Lane is a pretty well rounded player that will be a good everyday outfielder (better than current center fielder Craig Biggio), should Houston give him the job. How many more years will I have to write this same review of him? 63. Kris Honel- RHP CHW - Could be a great story… hometown boy joins the Sox rotation. Well, Honel is on his way there. His best pitch is his curve, though he will throw any pitch in any count. Still tall and lean, the Sox are hoping he gets stronger. That will help both his stamina and maybe even in regaining the couple mph his fastball has lost as a pro. 64. Matt Riley- LHP BAL - He's gone from "hot prospect" to "injured and out of action"… then he spent 2 years trying to recover and now he's back knocking on the door of the Majors. He doesn't have the ceiling he once did. I even (as recently as 2003) saw his future as a reliever. This spring he should get a shot at the rotation. They say he's matured a lot since he was last in Major League spring training… a definite plus. 65. Ramon Nivar- OF TEX - The term "lively body" definitely describes Nivar. Texas is hoping he'll step in and become their center fielder/leadoff hitter. He's got some work to do with his plate discipline, though he's always been able to make good contact. That'll be especially important in the leadoff spot. I actually like Nix better in center long term and wonder if Nivar will ever be more than a Mark McLemore "play a little everywhere" type. 66. Justin Jones- LHP CHC - Has a ways to go until he's Major League ready. He also has a very high upside should he stay healthy and keep improving. A power pitcher in high school, he's really picked up early the fact that you've got to do more than blow the ball by professional hitters. He has a great arm and pitched far better than most his age do in their first taste of full season ball. 67. Jayson Nix- 2B COL - Could he follow his big brother to the Majors á la Marcus Giles? The similarity is there. Plus, Nix has the bonus of getting his numbers inflated by the thin Colorado air and there's nobody blocking him at second base. In addition to having those things working in his favor, he's looking like he's turning into a pretty good player. 68. Sean Burnett- LHP PIT - He's still having a lot of success in the win/loss category and has always been young for his league. The big question is: now that's he's reaching the upper levels of the Minors, what happened to his strikeouts? Only 86 in 159+ IP. He's looking more like a #4 starter than he did a year ago. 69. Edwin Encarnacion- 3B CIN - His 2003 season was the classic example of trying to rush a good prospect too quickly. He has good tools and good enough plate discipline where he could be a Major League regular, should the latter not deteriorate. 70. Fausto Carmona- RHP CLE - He has excellent control for a (just turned) 20 year old, or any aged pitcher for that matter… he just throws strikes. In the second half of the season Carmona was regularly hitting 93 mph. He has a good pitcher's body that should get stronger. Though I don't think that will in his case add velocity, it will add stamina and durability. The one concern about Carmona… considering all the things he has going for him, why didn't a pitcher that throws 93 mph strikeout more Sally League hitters? I wasn't overly impressed with his off-speed stuff and his fastball just isn't a strikeout pitch… at least he doesn't locate it like it's one. There's plenty of time for him to work on his curve and change, they're just not good pitches right now. 71. Justin Huber- C NYM - Huber projects as a good offensive catcher. He should hit for good average and offer plenty of power for the position. I don't think he'll ever be better than average defensively and his plate discipline might only be ok. That combination should still make him a valuable commodity. 72. Gabe Gross- OF TOR - Like I expected, Gross is back among the top 100 (after being left off last year following a disappointing 2002 season). He's always had good control of the strike zone and has good defensive tools for right field. The only drawback so far with Gross has been in the homer department. He did have 56 extra base hits in 2003 and he has the size where the power should come. Should see some time in the Majors this summer. 73. Adrian Gonzalez- 1B TEX - Still just 21, his stock has dropped off substantially with some… me not included. Gonzalez has already enjoyed some Double A and AFL success, though his Triple A stint was forgettable. The biggest question mark concerning him now involves the fact that he's blocked by Mark Teixeira. I don't see him as a big homerun hitter, but he should be a good RBI guy. Even though I still like Gonzalez, I have to admit 2004 will be a pivotal season. 74. Jorge De La Rosa- LHP MIL - Came to Milwaukee from Boston (in the Shilling trade) via ARIona (in the Sexson trade). In my opinion, he's the best pitching prospect on any of these three teams. I remember hearing reports from the AFL in 2002 that he hit 99 mph, but he's more in the low to mid 90's on a regular basis. He made good progress in 2 areas last summer. He showed improved control and he's starting to make the transition from thrower to pitcher, though he still could use some more polish. 75. Shin-Soo Choo- OF SEA - Choo has slipped a little in the rankings... partly because there's so much talent out there and partly because he's coming off a down season in some key areas. He's a good line-drive hitter with a short stroke that should hit for a good average, he'll run a little and it seems like there should be enough pop in his bat for 30-10-10 extra-base hits. He also plays good defense and has the arm to stay in right field. Right now, he's the likely successor to Ichiro. 76. Jason Stokes- 1B FLA - Stokes regression in 2003 didn't surprise me that much. His great power is still what has the scouts talking about him and he'll need to tighten up his strike zone to realize that potential. I think this summer in Double A will tell a lot about his future. Adrian Gonzalez has been traded, but new competition for him arrived in Hee Choi. 77. Joel Hanrahan- RHP LA - Hanrahan does have a plus fastball… with both good velocity and some sink to it. His out pitch is usually a tough slider. He threw 2 no-hitters in 2002 and was even better last summer in Double A. His name comes up a lot in trade talks and it wouldn't surprise me to see him have a decent Major League career with a team other than LA. 78. Merkin Valdez- RHP SF - It seems like Valdez just came out of nowhere in 2003, but he actually posted very good numbers in the Braves' system the year before (in the Gulf Coast League) under his previous name… Manuel Mateo, before coming to the Giants in the Russ Ortiz trade. He led the Sally League in strikeouts last summer mainly due to his fastball. He has some work to do on his other pitches. 79. Freddy Sanchez- 2B PIT - Sanchez has hit everywhere he's been and I give him the inside track for the Pirates' second base job this spring. Don't expect him to be an All-Star… he's just going to play solid defense, get on base a little and hit for good average. Heck, if he does only do that, he'd be better than any Pittsburgh middle infielder in recent memory. 80. Manny Parra- LHP MIL - Hard thrower for a lefty (low 90's)… add to that great control, good size and the fact that he's a smart pitcher. He'll also pitch both sides of the plate very well. His secondary pitches need some work. That's the biggest negative concerning him right now. I had liked Mike Jones' future better than Parra's, but the injury report on Jones is not an optimistic one. 81. Chad Blasko- RHP CHC - Once thought of as only a closer candidate, he'll now be given a chance to make it as a starter. Blasko improved his slider and led the Florida State League in ERA. He has a fastball that can hit the mid-90's and the size to make him look very intimidating to hitters. 82. Neal Cotts- LHP CHW - He has an outstanding curve and has used it as a big-time strikeout pitch in overwhelming Minor League hitters. If he can improve his control, I think he can be a valuable pitcher with the Sox. If his control stays where it has been… he's just a fringe Major Leaguer. 83. Brad Nelson- OF MIL - You can blame his disappointing 2003 season on last spring's wrist injury… and rightly so, but Nelson's prospect status did take a hit… and rightly so. Fielder has passed him at first base and has forced Nelson to left field, where being mediocre with the glove is the best to expect. Despite not showing it last summer, Nelson does have great power and needs to rebound this summer to remain a top prospect. 84. Michael Aubrey- 1B CLE - Aubrey's bat has been much talked about. He has a great approach, a nice swing and should generate at least average power for his position. No news there. What isn't always talked about is his defense. I think he's an outstanding defender and he began showing it in his first pro game. I'm talking about gold glove caliber. He'll be a fast mover up the ladder. 85. Hanley Ramirez- SS BOS - You hear a lot of talk about his poor attitude and undisciplined approach. Even keeping those things in mind, I didn't view his 2003 season as a disappointment. Yeah, he broke some unspecified team rules early in the season and no, I don't want to see him become another Carl Everett. But, from a baseball perspective I saw a lot for the Red Sox to be excited about. I'm actually just as high on Ramirez as I was last year at this time, though I know I'm in the minority when I say that. 86. Victor Diaz- 2B NYM - All Diaz does is hit. There's always room on a Major League team for guys that can do that. He doesn't have much more to prove in the Minors and should be in the running for a job in the Majors soon. A move to the outfield wouldn't be such a bad thing for Diaz. The Mets seem to have the infield spots all filled and there's no excess outfielders beating down the door. 87. Curtis Granderson- OF DET - Granderson certainly was a great college hitter and he's showing the same ability as a pro. He's also in the second tier range in regards to power/speed prospects and he seems capable in center. At this point he's still only one of my sleeper picks, but I really like his future. I'm looking for a breakout season this summer. 88. Bubba Nelson- RHP ATL - You might see Nelson get a trial in the Braves' bullpen this summer. That should give them an idea of where his future lies. He's been a good starter in the Minors and has 3 quality pitches, but I still think he's walking a fine line between starter and reliever. I'm also concerned about his dropping strikeout rate. 89. Dan Meyer- LHP ATL - He's not received as much hype as some of the other Braves' prospects, but I like him a lot. In his first full pro season, he split time between the Sally League and the Carolina League, displaying his polished repertoire at both stops... even more so than expected. 90. Bobby Jenks- RHP ANA - Jenks seems to be very similar to Milwaukee's Nick Neugebauer... in being a big, physical, hard throwing, power pitcher. Also in that both haven't completely mastered the concept of the strike zone. It's so tempting to try and keep these kinds of pitchers in the rotation. I think Jenks (like I still think will be the case with Neugebauer) will probably end up in the back end of the bullpen. He has the stuff to dominate anyone… will he ever gain the command he'll need to succeed in the Majors? 91. Andy Sisco- LHP CHC - Last year I had Sisco at #84 last year. He didn't regress… in fact, he had a nice season in his first taste of full season ball. He has a huge potential upside as a big, left-handed power pitcher. He also has some maturity issues and with his big body, some issues with his mechanics. That should mean he'll take a little longer to develop. Your typical high risk, high return pitcher. 92. Joel Zumaya- RHP DET - Blew Midwest League hitters away with his mid-90's fastball… he was just unhittable (126 K's and just 69 hits in 90 IP). Reviews of his curveball seem to be mixed. Some claim it's a very good pitch and others say it's below average. I haven't seen him so I can't sway either way… although based on those reports, inconsistent is probably close to the truth. 93. Kevin Youkilis- 3B BOS - His incredible ability to get on base was very evident in the Eastern League, but he seemed to hit a wall as he moved to Triple A. His greatest asset turned into his biggest obstacle. Triple A pitching showed he'll have to be more aggressive and start driving the ball. 94. Chris Burke- 2B HOU - He's made some progress at the plate, but may have about hit his ceiling… which should be as an occasional .300 hitter, with limited extra base hit output. I can see him walking more, stealing quite a few bases and playing good defense (especially at second base). After Kent leaves Houston, the job is his for the taking. 95. Dan Johnson- 1B OAK - Going into the 2003 season, Oakland raved about Johnson's bat. Yet, after having a very nice season, he's not getting a lot of respect. True, he's only going as far as his bat can carry him (he doesn't run well or play good defense) and Johnson may be the latest A's prospect to have a big year in Midland's hitter friendly park (following Adam Piatt and Jason Hart), only to not carry it to the next level. He also turned 24 before season' end. Still, .290-27-114 is nothing to sneeze at. 96. Brendan Harris- 3B CHC - One of my sleepers from last year's list, Harris is down from #50 and barely hanging onto a spot this year. I really expected to see 15ish homers from him in 2003. Now, I could see him follow the path Toronto's Orlando Hudson took… moving from third to second while getting close to the Majors as his skills seem very similar. I don't have any personal knowledge of Harris' glove work, but he has played some second base already. Harris playing third in the AFL doesn't seem to back up my theory though. I worry he may not have the bat to stay there. 97. Rett Johnson- RHP SEA - Johnson throws a low-90's sinker and it's been a tough pitch to drive. His slider has been a decent pitch and in 2003, he started using his change more often… and with good results. Seeing him improve as he's moved up is also a good sign. Previously thought of as a future reliever, he's now going to get a shot at making the Mariners' rotation. 98. Larry Broadway- 1B MON - Big first baseman with great power. I was especially impressed with his opposite field power. He's not afraid to hit the ball to left-center and that's part of what makes him a good overall hitter. His defense isn't anything special, but he's not a liability either. 99. Dustin Moseley- RHP CIN - Am I the only one in America that still thinks of Moseley as a good prospect? While he may not have the best arm out there, he does have very good command of his pitches and he's had success at every stop… being right on track or better in terms of his age. I can see him being in someone's rotation for a long time… even if it only turns out as being a middle of the road guy. 100. Sergio Santos- SS ARI - The player Santos most reminds me of is Florida's Miguel Cabrera. I really think he could break out this summer, much like Cabrera just did in 2003. Up until now, his numbers have been ok, but not spectacular. Because of his size, I feel third base would be an ideal position for him, but for now he's still a shortstop. Most notable omissions: Mike Jones (MIL)- I've always liked Jones, but I'm really concerned about his ailing elbow. Milwaukee is choosing the rehab route, but if Tommy John surgery is needed, we're looking at him not being back to action until 2005. Without a bad elbow, he'd likely be in the 60's. Joey Gathright (TB)- Plays the little man's game to a tee. It just seems like he'll have to add at least a little pop to his game or advanced pitchers will come right after him. Adam Loewen (BAL)- Having not yet played in a full season league, his great arm has not been tested. Jeremy Guthrie (CLE)- Dominated Double A hitters, then hit a wall in Buffalo. There was a warning sign that may happen... he wasn't registering many K's while in the Eastern League. Macay McBride (ATL)- His control problems are a thing of the past. The trade off? He's been more hittable. I'm wondering if a move to the bullpen wouldn't be best for him. Felix Hernandez (SEA)- The latest Sid Finch or is he for real? For this 17 year old phenom, I think it's way too early to tell. |
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