| News * Teams * Minor Leagues * Rules * Media * Work Station * Links * Contact |
|
Analysis of the Cardinals in 2004 By: Jeff Reppert Hoping to improve on a disappointing 85-77 record and third place finish in the NL Central, Tony LaRussa’s Cardinals have a much different look heading into the 2004 season. The winter months began with the Cardinals declining to offer arbitration to a number of pitchers and letting several role players test free agency. Mark McGwire’s replacement, Tino Martinez, also found himself being fitted for a new big league uniform after he was sent to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for AAA pitcher Evan Rust and a player to be named later. During the Winter Meetings in December, Cardinals GM Walt Jocketty and Atlanta Braves GM John Schuerholz broke the winter ice in New Orleans first. A major trade between the two teams sent outfielder JD Drew and utility player Eli Marrero to Atlanta for starter Jason Marquis, reliever Ray King, and top Braves pitching prospect Adam Wainwright. The initial off-season moves, including buying out 2B Fernando Viña’s option, cleared enough payroll maneuverability for Jocketty to address the club’s most pressing needs. The Cards needed a capable relief corps, a second baseman, and a replacement for right field, a spot that Drew had held almost exclusively for the better part of four seasons. Jocketty wasted little time, bringing in free agent innings-eater Jeff Suppan and the well-traveled Reggie Sanders. Steve Kline and Cal Eldred, the club’s best lefty and righty relief combination, respectively, were brought back. Chris Carpenter was re-signed to potentially bolster a disappointing starting rotation after missing the entire 2003 season after shoulder surgery last off-season. The club added some depth to the bullpen with the signings of right handers Mike Lincoln and Julian Tavarez, and found an everyday second baseman to compete with Bo Hart when they signed free agent Marlon Anderson. Starting Pitching The Cardinals’ two-headed monster at the top of the rotation still remains. Staff ace Matt Morris and 2003 All-Star Woody Williams have earned their places at the top of the rotation. Free agent acquisition Jeff Suppan is slated to be the third starter after an impressive run with Pittsburgh in the NL Central in 2003, with the remaining two spots open for competition in Spring Training. Realistically, the final two spots will be decided by the best two options from a candidate pool consisting of Chris Carpenter, Jason Marquis, 2003 call-up Dan Haren and righty relievers Jason Simontacchi and Kiko Calero. Although the starting rotation does not figure to be the Cardinals’ strong suit, it should be average enough to keep a potent offense in games, and with the league’s top defense, the Cardinal starters could end up being a plus. The most likely scenario, one that seems plotted out even before pitchers and catchers report to camp in a few weeks, has the starting five rounding out with Morris, Williams, Suppan, Carpenter and Marquis. Relievers The Cardinals blew more saves than 28 of the other 29 teams in MLB last season. When closer Jason Isringhausen was not ready to pitch the first two months of 2003, LaRussa held mid-season closer auditions with little success. After Isringhausen returned in mid-June, the bullpen was much improved because of structured roles, and “Izzy” submitted 22 saves on top of a 2.36 ERA. Izzy has been a dominant closer for the Cardinals. In over 107 innings in St. Louis, he has allowed only 76 hits, two home runs (Barry Bonds and Brooks Kieschnick), 36 walks, 109 strikeouts, 54 saves and a steady 2.43 ERA. The left side of the Cardinal bullpen appears to be in place at this point, featuring two relievers known for durability and typically found among the NL leader board in appearances. Steve Kline (3.82) will likely be the primary lefty setup, and acquisition Ray King (3.51) will be slated as the team’s situational left-hander. The right side of the bullpen remains a tangled mess, really. Since LaRussa has stated he would like to carry 12 pitchers again in 2004, a host of candidates will vie for the remaining four openings during Spring Training competition. The early front-runners appear to be Cal Eldred and new Redbird Julian Tavarez. Eldred revived his career as a reliever with the Cards in 2003, and posted a solid 3.74 ERA while eventually winning the 9th inning sweepstakes in Isringhausen’s absence and saving 8 games. Julian Tavarez had a great season in relief for Pittsburgh in 2003, posting a 3.66 ERA, leading NL relievers in groundball-flyball ratio, and allowing only one home run in over 83 innings. Given the fact that the Cardinals pitching staff broke the franchise record for home runs allowed and the left side of the infield features gold glovers Scott Rolen and Edgar Renteria, Tavarez looks to be a major improvement over the likes of Esteban Yan, Dustin Hermanson, and Jeff Fassero. The remaining two spots seem entirely up for grabs. Kiko Calero seems destined to earn a spot after posting a 2.82 ERA in his rookie campaign, although Calero is returning from a mid-season 2003 injury that kept him on the shelf for the remainder of the year. Former top Cardinals’ prospect Jimmy Journell was a late-season call-up that could compete with Mike Lincoln and Jason Simontacchi for the final bullpen opening. If Calero is healthy, the most likely scenario is that Journell (former University of Illinois closer) would start the season pitching the 9th for the Memphis Redbirds (AAA), leaving Simontacchi and Lincoln to battle for a job in Spring Training. Other unlikely options for the St. Louis bullpen include Evan Rust (acquired in the Tino Martinez trade to Tampa) and Cardinals farmhand Josh Pearce. Lineup The 2003 Cardinals pounded out 876 runs (2nd to Atlanta in the NL) at around 5.41 runs per game. The most glaring difference heading into 2004 centers on the left-handed presence in the lineup after the departures of Fernando Viña, Tino Martinez and JD Drew. Losing 134 RBI and your leadoff hitter can usually hurt a team. However, with the additions of Reggie Sanders to the outfield and Marlon Anderson to the infield, they added 154 combined RBI and Anderson is the front-runner for the leadoff job. The 2004 lineup will feature four returning players who started for the NL All-Star team in 2003 (Renteria, Rolen, Jim Edmonds and Albert Pujols). Statistically speaking, Rolen and Renteria are potentially the best two-way infielders in the NL, while Edmonds hit 39 HR despite being sidelined for more than 20 games with a shoulder injury (ironically aggravated at the 2003 Home Run Derby). Mike Matheny will return to his catching duties and everyday status. Barring a trade, St. Louis natives Kerry Robinson and Ray Lankford (both lefties) will battle for the left field duties with the right-handed former Orix Blue Wave star center fielder So Taguchi. The most likely scenario is a platoon situation in left field that could also feature former 50 HR threat Greg Vaughn, who was signed to a minor league contract earlier in the off-season. As far as threats are concerned, a more feared stick within the St. Louis lineup cannot be found beyond Albert Pujols. In only three seasons in the major leagues, Pujols has become the first player to hit over .300 with 30+ HR, 100+ runs, and 100+ RBI in his first three full seasons. No player has ever hit more HR to begin a 3-year career (Pujols tied Ralph Kiner with 114 clouts to finish up his 2001-2003 tear). Pujols led the major leagues in batting average (.359), doubles (51), runs scored (137), and extra-base hits (95). Pujols finished third in MLB in on-base percentage (.439), second in slugging percentage (.667), fifth in RBI (124), and second in OPS (1.106). The Cardinals lineup features speed at the top with Anderson, who was successful on 19 of 22 steal attempts last season, and either Reggie Sanders or Jim Edmonds will fill the 2nd spot. Pujols should be found consistently hitting 3rd, and the remainder of the lineup could pan out like this:
Defense In 2002, the Cardinals had four of the National League’s nine gold glove winners. After losing gold glove second baseman Fernando Viña to injury midseason, repeating that feat seemed unlikely. However, while Jim Edmonds (OF), Scott Rolen (3B), and Edgar Renteria (SS) retained their accolades, Mike Matheny quietly had a perfect, errorless season behind the plate and was awarded the Cards fourth gold glove (Matheny’s second award) by Rawlings. Surrounding Edmonds in the outfield are a steady Reggie Sanders in right field, and speedy, sure-handed options at a platoon in left field (likely Kerry Robinson and So Taguchi). Taguchi had won five gold gloves in eight seasons playing along side Ichiro Suzuki for the Orix Blue Wave of the Japanese leagues before signing with St. Louis in 2002. Although nothing perfect, Marlon Anderson plays a solid second base and turns the double play well, although not as well as the former standard Viña. Bench The Cardinals’ bench remains the biggest question mark heading into the 2004 season. The club lost their top three options off the pine from the previous season in Eduardo Perez (Devil Rays), Miguel Cairo (Yankees), and Orlando Palmeiro (Astros). With the acquisition of Marlon Anderson, and given the fact that Bo Hart played third base and shortstop at Gonzaga, Hart will likely be the jack-of-all-trades utility player, the role that Cairo had filled for the team in the previous two seasons. The Cardinals are optimistic that Hart can be a good outfielder in hopes that he can find more playing time with his versatility. The competition in left field will dictate the look of the Cards’ bench in 2004. Top candidates Kerry Robinson, So Taguchi, Ray Lankford and Greg Vaughn could potentially all land a job, although this is unlikely. The Cardinals also have invited free agent infielders Brent Butler and Steve Cox to camp in Jupiter, Florida. Outfielder Mark Quinn also received an invite, carries a career .282 batting mark over the span of 1089 career at-bats, and could also join the outfield festivities in March. Although the bench will probably not be as strong as in previous seasons, it will feature a good mixture of power and speed to compliment the likely probability of the left field platoon. Chris Widger will return as the backup catcher after a semi-successful season handling a shaky pitching staff and receiving sparse playing time. Hindsight/Foresight The 2004 Cardinals are much improved over last season’s roster, although the competition in the NL Central has become much thicker with the acquisitions of Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens in Houston, and LaTroy Hawkins and Todd Walker in Chicago. The position players featured on the 2004 Cardinals are second to none in the league, offensively and defensively. The bullpen has been bolstered, and perhaps has gotten better merely from addition-by-subtraction. Ridding the ‘pen of Jeff Fassero, Esteban Yan, Pedro Borbon, and other less than serviceable, aging relievers was as step in the right direction. The same can be said for the rotation and the departures of the disappointing Brett Tomko and Garrett Stephenson. The big keys for the Cardinals will be the back end of the rotation and the bench play. Although the front end of the rotation (Morris, Williams, Suppan) looks sturdy, the question marks lie in the 4th and 5th spots. If Carpenter is healthy, team officials believe that he will be a real plus and could win 15 games or more. If Carpenter is not ready to go, the organization will have to draw from a talent pool that is not especially deep. Jason Marquis could also sink or swim. Braves pitching coach Leo Mazzone recognizes the talent of the arm (95+ mph fastball), but didn’t have enough time to round out Marquis’ talent during his brief time in a Braves uniform. Again, if Marquis pans out, the Cardinals would have a bargain. If not, the Cards are drawing from the minor leagues. Dan Haren could fill a role, but prospect Adam Wainwright does not seem ready for the jump yet and will begin the season in Memphis. As far as the bench is concerned, the main role that needs to be filled was opened by Orlando Palmeiro’s departure. If the Cardinals can get adequate starting pitching from the 4 and 5 spots and timely hitting from role players, they have every opportunity to win the NL Central or reach the Wild Card birth. As the games begin to matter, the real chance to pick up games in the standings revolves around the games that actually don’t seem to matter. The Cards play the Brewers, Reds, and Pirates a combined 50+ times in 2004. Last season, the team struggled to win games against lowly opponents because of a pitching staff ravaged by injury and a lineup that was only average with runners in scoring position. If the Cards win the games they are supposed to win, they will be part of a three-team race with the Astros and Cubs in the NL Central. If their struggles continue against low-payroll clubs, St. Louis could find themselves watching other teams play in October for the second season in a row after a run of three division titles from 2000-2002. Ratings Rotation - 6.5/10 Bullpen - 7/10 Offense - 9/10 Defense - 10/10 Bench - 6/10 Overall Projection: 92-70 |
|
|
