JustTV Talk: June 14, 2005
Here are my fall predictions, mostly centering on ratings. After last fall produced two big hits, it's been apparent that network tv can still do it's thing. Can it next year?
Overall Ratings (By The End of November Sweeps)
 13.5mil |
 11.4 |
 9.4 |
 9.3 |
 3.8 |
 3.7 |
51.1mil | |
| % change last season | 0.8% |
11.2 |
3.3 |
-9.7 |
5.6 | -5.1 |
1.0 |
| Adults 18-49 | 4.2 |
4.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 18.8 |
| % change last season | 0.7% |
10.3 |
2.9 |
-7.7 | 6.7 |
-6.7 |
1.1 |
| Adults 25-54 | 5.2 |
4.8 | 3.7 |
4.1 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 20.9 |
| % change last season | - |
9.1 |
- |
-8.9 |
6.7 |
-4.5 |
0.5 |
Reasoning:
Remember, this is taking into account only last fall's ratings for stronger/weaker comparisons
CBS: The eye will be even on Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday with slight declines on Monday (1-5% range- stronger at 8pm, weaker at 9) and slight increases on Tuesday (5-10%- stronger at 9pm, weaker at 10pm).
ABC: ABC will be flat on Monday and Saturday, but stronger on Tuesday (10-15%, all through the night), Wednesday (10-15%- much weaker at 8pm, but half to double strength 9-10pm), Thursday (15-20%, particularly in adults), Friday (10-15% 8-10pm) and Sunday (20-30%, particularly at 10pm)
NBC: NBC will be flat on Monday (up at 10, down at 8), Saturday and Sunday, but down on Tuesday (10-15%, especially at 9pm), Wednesday (10-20%, all through the night), Thursday (20-25%, all though the night), Friday (5-10% especially at 10pm).
Fox: Assuming baseball does what it did last year, Fox will be flat on Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday, but up on Tuesday (40-50%, especially at 9pm) and Sunday (15-20%, especially at 8 and 9pm)
UPN: The UPN will be flat on Tuesday (down at 8pm, but up at 9pm) and Wednesday, down on Thursday (20-25%), but up on Monday (10-15%) and Friday (maybe tripling its numbers).
WB: The WB will be flat on Friday and Sunday, down on Monday (10-15%, particularly at 9pm), Tuesday (10-15%, especially at 9pm), Wednesday (10-15%, especially at 8pm), but it will be up on Thursday (60-80%).
Predicted Top 30:
| Viewers |
% Change vs. Last Fall |
||||
| 1 | CSI | CBS | 28.8 |
-0.7 |
|
| 2 | Desperate Housewives | ABC | 27.4 | 20.2 | |
| 3 | Without A Trace | CBS | 20.4 | 0.5 | |
| 4 | Lost | ABC | 20.3 | 15.4 | |
| 5 | Grey's Anatomy | ABC | 20.1 | ||
| 6 | Survivor | CBS | 19.5 | -1.2 | |
| 7 | CSI Miami | CBS | 18.3 | -12.4 | |
| 8 | Extreme Makeover: HE | ABC | 16.5 | 0.7 | |
| 8 | Monday Night Football | ABC | 16.5 | 1.3 | |
| 10 | Cold Case | CBS | 15.7 | -2.5 | |
| 10 | Two & A Half Men | CBS | 15.7 |
-7.1 | |
| 12 | ER | ABC | 15.5 | -10.4 | |
| 13 | House | Fox | 15.4 | 126.5 | |
| 14 | Invasion | ABC | 14.6 | ||
| 14 | 60 Minutes | CBS | 14.6 | -5.9 | |
| 16 | Out of Practice | CBS | 14.3 | ||
| 17 | NCIS | CBS | 14.2 | -2.7 | |
| 18 | The Amazing Race | CBS | 13.3 | 13.7 | |
| 19 | Law & Order: SVU | NBC | 13.1 | -7.1 | |
| 20 | The Apprentice | NBC | 12.7 | -20.1 | |
| 20 | Medium | NBC | 12.7 | ||
| 22 | CSI NY | CBS | 12.5 | -26.0 | |
| 23 | Num3ers | CBS | 12.3 | ||
| 24 | Commander In Chief | ABC | 11.5 | ||
| 25 | Las Vegas | NBC | 11.4 | -5.8 | |
| 26 | Law & Order | NBC | 11.1 | -17.8 | |
| 27 | Boston Legal | ABC | 11.1 | -8.3 | |
| 28 | King of Queens | CBS | 10.7 | -7.0 | |
| 29 | Crossing Jordan | NBC | 10.6 | -18.5 | |
| 30 | Law & Order: CI | NBC | 10.5 | -16.0 | |
| 30 | According To Jim | ABC | 10.5 | -4.5 |