|
Q. Discuss the economic performance / economic development
of Bangladesh.
Answer: After recovering successfully from the wounds sustained
in the devastating floods of 1998, the engine of growth
has once again become energised. In December 1999 inflation
rate in Bangladesh was 3.8% whereas in July 1999 it was
7.03%. It may be noted in fiscal year 1998-99 the rate was
8.91%. The Economists reviewed the economic condition and
opined in positive that the rate of inflation has declined
substantially over the last few months and they are expecting
a further decrease in the coming months of 2000. Moreover
successive bumper crop productions have made a considerable
impression on the overall food situation and the Government
expects that the trend would be sustained with an agriculture
growth rate of 5.5 percent in the current fiscal. The country’s
foreign exchange reserve has increased to 1.55 billion US
dollars over the last few months as it is recorded on January
2000. The previous reserve was 1.52 billion dollars in June
1999. Economists have considered this increase as “too meager”
and they believe the country would struggle hard even to
pay three months’ import bills. They believe that this would
leave the Government in dire straits if the country was
faced with a crisis situation on account of natural calamities
or any other emergencies. On other hand both local and foreign
direct investment fell in recent times mainly due to the
volatile political situation, poor infrastructure and port
unrest. But the Government strongly believes FDI flows would
increase further in the mid term. According to the statistics
6.4 billion dollars worth of foreign investment was attracted
by the country in the last three fiscals. During the same
period, amount of private investment is 3.43 billion dollars.
In the last fiscal year (1998-1999) the amount of FDI was
807 million dollars. According to the Government’s forecast
the economic growth for the current fiscal is determined
at 5.5%. Some 0.4 million tonnes of Boro rice will be procured
in the coming season while procurement targets for wheat
and maize have been fixed at 0.3 million tonnes and 5000
tonnes respectively. Foreign aid disbursement at the end
of the current fiscal is estimated to stand at 1.69 billion
dollars against Bangladesh’s requirement for the year of
2.04 billion dollars. The aid demand was earlier roughly
estimated at 2.03 billion dollars. On March 23, 2000 the
cabinet approved the Draft Country Memorandum to be placed
in the Bangladesh Development forum meeting in Paris April
13-14 with an overview of the country’s economic performance.
The cabinet also endorsed a proposal for following UN- Certified
System of >National Account 1993 to determine GDP and GNP,
and taking 1993-94 as the base year, instead of 1984-85
In 1993 the United Nations, the IMF and the World Bank introduced
the System of National Accounts (SNA). The Government has
adopted the General Data Dissemination Standard (GDDS) of
the IMF. Since 1993 the UN, IMF and the World Bank used the
statistics prepared on the new method, but the Government
of Bangladesh continued to use the old data method which often
created confusion and misunderstanding in the past. According
to the New Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) series the
growth rate of GDP for the current 1999-2000 fiscal stands
at 5.47%. Under the new accounting system the growth rate
of GDP in 1997-1998 was 5.23% and for 1998-99 it was 4.88%
The Government believes that the new system of accounting
has been adopted to remove confusion and difference in statistical
data used by the Govt. and the donars. This year four more
sectors are included in the system of national accounts to
estimate the country’s GDP. According to the BBS series, fishing,
education, hotel and restaurant, and health and social services
come as new sectors to include in the national accounting
system, raising the number of sectors to 15 from the earlier
11. For example fishing has been recognised as a full sector
of the economy for the first time this fiscal. Education,
hotel and restaurants are declared as two individual economic
sectors. From this fiscal, the BBS also has divided the original
economic sectors into three broad categories - agriculture
sector, industry sector and service sector. The agriculture
sector includes crops and horticulture, animal farming and
forest. The industry sector includes mining and quarrying;
manufacturing, electricity, gas and water supply and construction.
The service sector includes wholesale and retail trade; hotel
and restaurants; transport, storage and communication; financial
intermediaries; real estate, renting and business activities;
public administration and defence; education; health and social
and personal services. Based on the new system of accounting
the Govt. has projected that the agriculture sector would
achieve a growth of 6.43% in the current fiscal >whereas it
was 4.77% in 1998-99 and 3.19% in 1997-98 fiscal. Similarly
the industry sector would achieve a growth of 5.55% in this
fiscal whereas it was 4.92% in 1998-99 and 8.32% in 1997-1998.
The service sector growth has been projected as 4.98% this
fiscal, marginally up from 4.91% in 1998-99 financial year
and 4.77% in 1997-98 fiscal. According to the Govt. estimate,
fishing sector would contribute the highest growth, which
is 9.50% this year. Other estimated growth rates are: Construction
8%, wholesale and retail trade 7%, hotel and restaurants 6.75%,
mining and quarrying 6.46%, crops and horticulture 6.13%,
transport, storage & communication 6.06% and electricity,
gas and water supply 6.03%. The animal farming has been projected
to achieve the lowest growth i.e. 2.74% only. The cabinet
also gave approval to another proposal for conducting the
fourth census in the first half of January 2001. |