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MSJ Online-Synopsis- Bangladesh Economy

Q. Discuss the economic performance / economic development of Bangladesh.

Answer: After recovering successfully from the wounds sustained in the devastating floods of 1998, the engine of growth has once again become energised. In December 1999 inflation rate in Bangladesh was 3.8% whereas in July 1999 it was 7.03%. It may be noted in fiscal year 1998-99 the rate was 8.91%. The Economists reviewed the economic condition and opined in positive that the rate of inflation has declined substantially over the last few months and they are expecting a further decrease in the coming months of 2000. Moreover successive bumper crop productions have made a considerable impression on the overall food situation and the Government expects that the trend would be sustained with an agriculture growth rate of 5.5 percent in the current fiscal. The country’s foreign exchange reserve has increased to 1.55 billion US dollars over the last few months as it is recorded on January 2000. The previous reserve was 1.52 billion dollars in June 1999. Economists have considered this increase as “too meager” and they believe the country would struggle hard even to pay three months’ import bills. They believe that this would leave the Government in dire straits if the country was faced with a crisis situation on account of natural calamities or any other emergencies. On other hand both local and foreign direct investment fell in recent times mainly due to the volatile political situation, poor infrastructure and port unrest. But the Government strongly believes FDI flows would increase further in the mid term. According to the statistics 6.4 billion dollars worth of foreign investment was attracted by the country in the last three fiscals. During the same period, amount of private investment is 3.43 billion dollars. In the last fiscal year (1998-1999) the amount of FDI was 807 million dollars. According to the Government’s forecast the economic growth for the current fiscal is determined at 5.5%. Some 0.4 million tonnes of Boro rice will be procured in the coming season while procurement targets for wheat and maize have been fixed at 0.3 million tonnes and 5000 tonnes respectively. Foreign aid disbursement at the end of the current fiscal is estimated to stand at 1.69 billion dollars against Bangladesh’s requirement for the year of 2.04 billion dollars. The aid demand was earlier roughly estimated at 2.03 billion dollars. On March 23, 2000 the cabinet approved the Draft Country Memorandum to be placed in the Bangladesh Development forum meeting in Paris April 13-14 with an overview of the country’s economic performance. The cabinet also endorsed a proposal for following UN- Certified System of >National Account 1993 to determine GDP and GNP, and taking 1993-94 as the base year, instead of 1984-85

In 1993 the United Nations, the IMF and the World Bank introduced the System of National Accounts (SNA). The Government has adopted the General Data Dissemination Standard (GDDS) of the IMF. Since 1993 the UN, IMF and the World Bank used the statistics prepared on the new method, but the Government of Bangladesh continued to use the old data method which often created confusion and misunderstanding in the past. According to the New Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) series the growth rate of GDP for the current 1999-2000 fiscal stands at 5.47%. Under the new accounting system the growth rate of GDP in 1997-1998 was 5.23% and for 1998-99 it was 4.88% The Government believes that the new system of accounting has been adopted to remove confusion and difference in statistical data used by the Govt. and the donars. This year four more sectors are included in the system of national accounts to estimate the country’s GDP. According to the BBS series, fishing, education, hotel and restaurant, and health and social services come as new sectors to include in the national accounting system, raising the number of sectors to 15 from the earlier 11. For example fishing has been recognised as a full sector of the economy for the first time this fiscal. Education, hotel and restaurants are declared as two individual economic sectors. From this fiscal, the BBS also has divided the original economic sectors into three broad categories - agriculture sector, industry sector and service sector. The agriculture sector includes crops and horticulture, animal farming and forest. The industry sector includes mining and quarrying; manufacturing, electricity, gas and water supply and construction. The service sector includes wholesale and retail trade; hotel and restaurants; transport, storage and communication; financial intermediaries; real estate, renting and business activities; public administration and defence; education; health and social and personal services. Based on the new system of accounting the Govt. has projected that the agriculture sector would achieve a growth of 6.43% in the current fiscal >whereas it was 4.77% in 1998-99 and 3.19% in 1997-98 fiscal. Similarly the industry sector would achieve a growth of 5.55% in this fiscal whereas it was 4.92% in 1998-99 and 8.32% in 1997-1998. The service sector growth has been projected as 4.98% this fiscal, marginally up from 4.91% in 1998-99 financial year and 4.77% in 1997-98 fiscal. According to the Govt. estimate, fishing sector would contribute the highest growth, which is 9.50% this year. Other estimated growth rates are: Construction 8%, wholesale and retail trade 7%, hotel and restaurants 6.75%, mining and quarrying 6.46%, crops and horticulture 6.13%, transport, storage & communication 6.06% and electricity, gas and water supply 6.03%. The animal farming has been projected to achieve the lowest growth i.e. 2.74% only. The cabinet also gave approval to another proposal for conducting the fourth census in the first half of January 2001.
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