Well, I once again find myself with enough time on my hands to do some writing. I hope to knock out a little poetry later today, and maybe start a short story. In the interim, though, I have some 'splainin' to do.
A couple of days ago, I mentioned an conversation I anticipate having with my grandchildren, should I manage to get out of this one alive. My expectation is that one day some little sprout will be on my knee asking me, "Grandaddy E., were you in The War?" My response, as you may recall, was, "No, I wasn't in The War, but I was in the war before The War."
Now this may not be entirely true. It may be that I will also participate in The War. There may be a war between this one and The War. But there are two things of which I am certain: We, as a world, are drawing to a point in history in which a conflict is inevitible, and this current collection of conflicts is not it.
I am almost certain that there will be another chapter in this Global War on Terror. I think that history will look at this conflict, the war in Afghanistan, and the next one or two, as different phases of the same war.
Unfortunately, The War will not, I fear, be over a cause so noble as eliminating terrorism from the world. The lines are currently forming two distinct groups. On one hand, there is Western Society. On the other is Non-Western Society.
Western Society is enamoured with a particular concept of civilisation. It involves a particular code of ethics, and a particular mode of behaviour. There are things which Western Society will tolerate, and things which it will not. It has a code of justice that has a heavy emphasis on making sure innocent people are not wrongly prosecuted. It shows, and expects, a great deal of mercy. It is, for the most part, monotheistic. It consumes a majority of the world's resources, but produces a majority of the world's advancements.
Non-Western Society is a kalidescope of ethos and behaviours. It has a variety of beliefs and dogmas. it is monotheistic, polytheistic, and non-theistic. However, it generally has a code of justice that has a heavy emphasis on non-recidivism. It produces a majority of the world's products, but consumes a lesser amount of resources. And as varied as Non-Western Society is, it has one common bond. It does NOT want to conform to Western standards.
Al Qaeda, Tupac Amaru, Aum Shinrikyo, and a host of other organizations have their various agendas, but none of them are particularly compatible with Western Society. Additionally, the amount of groups is growing.
I'm sure this sounds alarmist, but I believe that hostilities are eventually going to be touched off by one side or the other. And, as unlikely as this may sound, it will probably be the current quest for Peace in the Middle East that gives us the required spark.
There are those in the West who believe that Peace in the Middle East can only come through Democratization of the Arab World. Iraq provides an excellent opportunity for the West to get its foot in the door, in a manner of speaking. Once other copuntries see that Democratization is a good thing, they will begin clamouring for more of it in their own countries. And there you have it, the Road to Jerusalem, paved by Babylon.
Some will see this as Zionist. Others will see it as Imperialist. Few will see it as altruistic. The West tends to overlook the flaws in Democracy, because we believe that the strengths outwiegh the weaknesses. We tend to forget that the Non-West does the same with their various systems.
It will not require any super-charismatic leader to rise from some downtrodden country, uniting the various factions into one massive Army of Doom. No one has to be particularly united at all, or even coordinated, to start off. As a matter of fact, the more diverse and disjointed they are, the harder it will be for the West to defend against it. All it takes is a number of organizations, or nations, deciding that the sting of a thousand hornets can be as deadly as one spear.
And then we will see The War. One faction or the other in this conflict will strike heavily enough to encourage cooperation among the non-Western nations. The impetus could be a successful assault by some smaller nation, or it could be a devastating attack on the host nation of some organisation. It seems likely that the Communist nations (what is left of them), will side against the West. I can't even begin to predict the outcome. I can't even begin to predict the date, although logic indicates that it is likely to be in the next 50 years. I am, of course, open to debate, and perfectly willing to be wrong, so if you have another, more palatable course of events, let me know. I am ever the optimist.
Posted by rant/blatherskite
at 11:45 AM GMT
Updated: Sunday, 11 January 2004 3:35 PM GMT
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Updated: Sunday, 11 January 2004 3:35 PM GMT
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