STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM SNY
35 NNE CYS 50 ESE DGW CDR VTN ANW BUB MCK 35 SSW IML SNY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S CRP VCT CLL TYR
40 NNW HOT JBR DYR OWB EVV BLV MKC CNK RSL GAG LBB GDP 30 SSE ELP
...CONT... 70 ESE YUM IGM CDC U24 DPG ENV U31 10 SSE TVL RBL
45 SE EKA MFR RDM PUW FCA LWT GCC 81V REJ MBG ABR RWF MCW ALO SBN
CLE SYR BTV 10 NE EFK ...CONT... WAL RIC LYH HKY AND AHN LGC
20 ENE DHN MGR AYS 20 SSE SSI.

...NORTHEASTERN U.S...
MODELS SUGGEST BROAD UPPER TROUGH...WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES...
CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...WILL SHARPEN UP AND
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  AS INITIAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
LIFTS FROM SOUTHEAST QUEBEC INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST/AND THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  FRONT WILL BE
ADVANCING INTO AIR MASS WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
STRONG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH MID 50S+ SURFACE DEW POINTS. 
DAYTIME HEATING APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE ON THE ORDER
OF 1000 J/KG...WHICH...WITH INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT...IS
EXPECTED TO SUPPORT AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN
13/21Z AND 14/00Z. GIVEN MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND MEAN
FLOW AROUND 30 KT...ISOLATED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...LACK OF STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION DURING THIS TIME PERIOD APPEARS LIKELY TO MINIMIZE
SEVERE THREAT.  FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION PROVIDED BY
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN POST-FRONTAL REGIME...AND NOT LIKELY TO INFLUENCE THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION UNTIL THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

...NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST OF SURFACE
LOW OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO.  SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS
GREAT BASIN SHORT WAVE MIGRATES AROUND TOP OF UPPER RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  THIS WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PRIMARILY IN MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME
NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.  WITH STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IN
IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...SHARP
VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT BENEATH MODERATE
WESTERLY MID-LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.  AT LEAST A SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS
LIKELY TO EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS TO NEAR 50 KT ALONG AN AXIS FROM GOODLAND KS INTO
NORTH PLATTE NEB.  HOWEVER...LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WITH ACTIVITY AS IT DEVELOPS NORTH OF FRONT...AND BOUNDARY
LAYER ALONG/SOUTH OF FRONT STABILIZES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD FROM
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IS PROGGED TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM
WILL STILL PROVIDE SOME POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST VERY ISOLATED/BRIEF
SEVERE CELLS WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS FROM EASTERN OREGON INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA/EASTERN IDAHO.   

..KERR.. 09/13/01

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z