ACUS3 KMKC 041341
SWOMCD
MKC MCD 041340
NYZ000-PAZ000-NJZ000-MAZ000-CTZ000-RIZ000-041600-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1940 FOR NY/PA/NJ/CT/MA/RI
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...


CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW.

AS FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN ZONE OF STRONG DPVA
SPREADS ACROSS TONGUE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/POTENTIAL INSTABILITY
IN THE LEE OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO....SHORT/NARROW SQUALL LINE
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN
PENNSYLVANIA.  ACTIVITY IS SPREADING EASTWARD AROUND 35 KT...AND
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC
COAST REGION BETWEEN 15-17Z...THEN EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  WHILE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE INDICATES
SURFACE-BASED AIR MASS IS STILL STABLE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...
THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO CHANGE RAPIDLY AS RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY
LAYER QUICKLY HEATS UP.  AS THIS OCCURS...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY INCREASE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS NEAR/
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH OF THE NEW YORK CITY AREA BY 17Z.

..KERR.. 09/04/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



ACUS3 KMKC 041803
SWOMCD
MKC MCD 041803
PAZ000-NJZ000-042000-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1942 FOR CENTRAL AND ERN PA...MOST OF NJ
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...


MONITORING AREA FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY AND
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.  WW MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND NERN PA
THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH 50
KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX.  AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IS EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR CHANNEL..CURRENTLY ROTATING INTO CENTRAL PA.  SURFACE
ANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS PRESSURE FALLS OVER MUCH OF ERN PA...AHEAD OF
SURFACE COLD FRONT.  SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AS UPPER JET MOVES OVER AREA.
TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 F COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.  DAMAGING
WINDS...ALONG WITH SOME LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

..JEWELL.. 09/04/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



ACUS3 KMKC 042046
SWOMCD
MKC MCD 042045
PAZ000-NJZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-042300-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1943 FOR SERN PA...CENTRAL NJ...EXTREME
NERN MD AND DE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 708...


CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.  THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING INTO THE PHL AREA WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AS
WILL OTHER UPSTREAM STORMS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.  LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS CONTINUED PRESSURE FALLS OVER SERN PA/ SRN NJ / INTO
MD AND DE.  AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS WILL HELP SUSTAIN STORMS
AS THEY MOVE SEWD.

..JEWELL.. 09/04/01

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/ FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



781
ACUS3 KMKC 042300
SWOMCD
MKC MCD 042300
DEZ000-MDZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-CWZ000-050100-

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1944 FOR DE...NERN MD...SRN NJ AND SERN PA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 708...


STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN
NJ...EXTREME SERN PA AND NRN DE ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  THESE
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE CAPE MAY NJ VCNTY AND
PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL DE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  AREA VAD
WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE THAN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH BL-6KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF
50 KTS.  THUS...FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...THUNDERSTORMS MAY
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS HAIL.
HOWEVER...GIVEN DIURNAL COOLING...BUOYANCY WILL DECREASE...LIKELY
RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AS THE STORMS MOVE
OVER THE ERN SHORES OF MD/DE.

..RACY.. 09/04/01