STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWBC.

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACY
BWI MRB 30 SSE LBE LBE DUJ MSS ...CONT... 20 ENE CAR 30 NW BGR
15 E PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NNW GFK MHE BUB
BBW MCK 50 SE GLD GCK GAG 40 WSW END BVO 45 SE DTW ...CONT...
20 S FHU 35 SSW LAS DRA U31 BAM 25 ESE OWY MLD 40 S JAC 45 SE LVM
55 NE HVR.

--- SYNOPSIS ---
ZONALLY ORIENTED UPPER AIR PATTERN NOW ACROSS CONUS WILL AMPLIFY
SOMEWHAT THROUGH DAY-2...WITH TROUGHS MOVING ONSHORE LATE PERIOD IN
PACIFIC NW AND DIGGING ESEWD OVER GREAT LAKES.  EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
HEIGHT FALLS IN THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND REGION.  MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY AND RAOB ANALYSES INDICATE INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FROM JAMES BAY REGION SWWD ACROSS LARGE PART OF NRN ONT TO NRN MN. 
VORTICITY LOBE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SPEED MAX APPARENT OVER MN/ONT
BORDER AREA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SEWD... AMPLIFYING TROUGH AND
SPREADING INTENSE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER SOME PORTIONS OF
SURFACE WARM SECTOR.  COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM SSM REGION
SWWD ACROSS SWRN NEB...IS REASONABLY PROGGED TO EXTEND FROM SRN QUE
SWD ACROSS OH BY MID-DAY...SWEEPING OFFSHORE MID ATLANTIC/NEW
ENGLAND AFTER 00Z.

--- NERN CONUS ---
WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS -- MOST PROBABLY IN BROKEN BANDS -- MAY
PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL.  FRONT AND ONE OR TWO
WEAK/PARALLEL PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE BANDS SHOULD BE PRIMARY FOCI
FOR CONVECTION...IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF RELATIVELY WEAK CAPPING. 
SUPPORTIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE MARGINAL AND CONFINED TO A
RELATIVELY NARROW PLUME AHEAD OF FRONT -- LIMITING BOTH CAPE AND
AERIAL COVERAGE OF TSTMS.  HOWEVER... MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS DO
YIELD 700-1200 J/KG SBCAPE/MLCAPE WITH INPUT DEW POINTS FRM UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL DECREASE SWD...BUT SBCAPE
COULD RISE TO NEAR 2000 J/KG OVER SRN PORTION OF OUTLOOK AREA WHERE
A LOW LEVEL PROFILE RESEMBLING A MOIST/ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE LAYER IS
PROGGED.  

--- NRN HIGH PLAINS ---
STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA PROFILE WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
INTO TOMORROW NIGHT...AS LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AHEAD OF
APPROACHING PACIFIC NW TROUGH.  RELATIVELY SCANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CASTS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY OVER POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...THOUGH ETA DOES PRODUCE SOME CONVECTION
FROM NERN WY NNWWD ACROSS ERN MT BY END OF PERIOD.  IF CONVECTION
DOES DEVELOP...MOST PROBABLY W OF AXIS OF 25-35 KT LLJ...A FEW
CELLS COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL IN ENVIRONMENT OF INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR AND ELEVATED MUCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG. 

 
..EDWARDS.. 09/03/01

PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK MAPS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE SPC WEBSITE AT
(LOWER CASE):  HTTP://WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/OUTLOOK
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z