STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE
DOV 30 ESE DCA 50 WSW MRB 15 ESE PIT 20 NNW ROC ...CONT... 25 WNW
ART 20 SSW BTV 10 NE PSM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE SAN 35 WNW
EDW 10 SE BIH 25 SSW ELY 10 SW TWF 60 S S80 60 NW FCA ...CONT...
RRT 35 ENE ABR AIA 35 N GAG 25 NNE FYV 30 SW SDF 20 W ERI.


LATE EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDED
FROM SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  A CUT-
OFF LOW WAS NOTED OVER SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS.  FINALLY...A THIRD WEAKENING UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA.

...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA...
COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LAKES REGION INTO THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.  A NARROW AXIS OF
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS
OF NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DECREASING
IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO...AND THEY
WILL LIKELY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE...
CREATING AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG WINDS
WITH STORMS.  LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
STEEP...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER-
STORMS.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE EXPECTED WIND FIELDS...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS. 
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

...SOUTHEASTERN STATES...
A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NATION.  STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING
COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES TO REACH 1500 TO 2000 J/KG.  WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION OCCURRED MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS ACTIVITY HAS LEFT
NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION IN WHICH STORMS CAN
FOCUS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW TO MID
LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK...BUT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED DAMAGING GUST OR TWO WITH SOME
OF THE STRONGER STORMS.  ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TOO
ISOLATED TO WARRANT A SEVERE OUTLOOK.  THESE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.

...SOUTHWESTERN STATES...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLATEAU REGION.  STRONG HEATING WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO
BECOME RATHER STEEP IN SOME LOCATIONS.  THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL
CREATE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE INVERTED-V TYPE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THIS WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR A FEW MICROBURSTS.   HOWEVER...THE MID LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...AND STORMS SHOULD BE
RATHER RANDOM.  THEREFORE...A SLIGHT RISK WILL NOT BE INTRODUCED AT
THIS TIME.
 
..REHBEIN.. 09/04/01

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z