December 23, 2000
Brrrrrrrr! As this page is in the process of being updated, it is currently 11 degrees farenheit outside. Needless to say(but will say it regardless), the coldest airmass of the season so far has settled upon the northeast. Not a whole lot to talk about in the short range. The pattern will be cold and dry through at least the middle of next week. Now the details: Saturday will be partly sunny with the high around 30. Christmas Eve will be partly cloudy with the high around freezing (32 farenheit for those not aware). There is also the chance for a flurry as a clipper system passes by well to the north of the region. Folks in Eastern New England may get a few inches of snow, but nothing for us to be concerned about. Christmas Day will be partly sunny and windy with the high in the upper 20s (unless you live in Texas where there will be a plethora of weather including snow and ice to the north and thunderstorms to the south). Wednesday will also be partly cloudy and breezy with the high in the low to mid 30s.
As we head into the second half of next week, the weather will likely turn stormy again. Many of the models are in fairly good agreement that a shortwave diving out of Canada may link up with(phase) another shortwave opening up and emerging from the southwest. This seems like a certainty. An area of low pressure will likely form over the western Gulf around Tuesday, but it's exact track from that point on is still in question. Will state that several of the models hit the northeast with a decent snowstorm, but this is not certain at this time. The system will have ample amounts of moisture to work with, so whoever gets in on the snow will likely see a fair amount of the white stuff. Three scenarios at this time: 1)low pressure heads NE just to our west dumping heavy snow in the Appalachians and points north while the major cities like NY and Philly get snow to rain. 2)low pressure tracks through the southeast and off the Hatteras coast to the Cape Cod area giving the major cities in the northeast accumulating snow (could be large). 3)arctic high pressure to the north forces the system to remain south and just grazes our area with light snow. Unlike last week when a few models hinted at something large coming for one run and then backed off quickly, the models this time around have remained generally consistent.
So what do we think? Well, quite honestly, six days out in a forecast period is quite a long time, but it is *significant* that the models are hanging on to the idea of a large storm moving into the eastern US by the second half of next week. Will say that this potential system needs to be strongly monitored for our area. Several factors favor this system affecting our area. First, a very noticeable block over Greenland has and will continue to push the Arctic vortex southward into the northern tier of the central to eastern US. Second, the NAO will be a severe negative as we head into this time period. That means a very strong ridge out west and a very deep, cold trough in the eastern US. Third and finally, as has been my learning from past snowstorms in the east, when you see a cutoff low in the southwest US begin to open up, coupled with a Greenland Block, and more energy diving down into the Plains, that is a formula for snow.
Again, went way too much into detail already, so will hold it at this: Cold and dry through the middle of next week, chance of a flurry Christmas Eve, and potential storminess as we approach the second half of next week. Will *likely* update late Saturday night. Take care.
