This is amazing. It is now March 1999 and I seem to be one of the few who hasn't jumped onto the euphoria bandwagon. Am I the only level-headed realist left? Am I the only one to see that the market is ridiculously over-blown? Am I the only one left that can see that we are at the very end of the longest running economic boom in US history…to be followed by a 1930's style depression? Am I the only sane straggler who knows darn well that Y2K (and the associated panic) is only months away? Am I the only one who hasn't been fooled by well-worded PR and government assurances that offer warm, fuzzy feelings without any basis in reality?

I believe we are now in the "Era of good feeling."

Remember back in October 1998 when bad news seemed to be flowing everywhere? Y2K was to be a sure disaster. The stock market had lost 19% of its value. All the major newspapers and magazines had visions of economic collapse all over their covers. Everyone was as bearish as could be, except one analyst: a radio investment professional called Bob Brinker. He was the last bull...the only one. In the face of over-whelming bearishness all around him, he defiantly predicted that we would rebound sharply then hit new highs. Other analysts scoffed.

Turned out that he was dead-on in his forecast.

This is the situation I am presently in. I maintain my predictions because I look past the obviously superficial and short-term. Everybody's happier than a pig in $#it just as I'm miserably depressed on the future of the global economy as I have been for the past couple years.

Dow 10,000?? I predicted that...for the past year.

I strongly, strongly believe we are at THE top right now. Believe me folks when I say this... I've never been so absolutely convinced of such a future event. The real serious aspects of the crash won't begin until after June/July. Then it's all straight down from there.

How can everyone be optimistic in the face of overwhelmingly dire evidence? Maybe I should go on Prozac like everyone else.

What evidence is there to suggest so. Where are all the compliant Fortune 500 companies? Show me how the rest of the world is going manage NOT to collapse ! Answer: there is no basis for optimism as we've been led to believe!

I hope you aren't falling into this seductive trap.

Sincerely, Daniel

(I'll step down from my soap-box now) HOME PAGE: year 2000 Economics