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The Y2K Disconnect: If Y2K were solved, Then...


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This is from Y2K Newswire

IF Y2K WERE SOLVED…

  1. …the FAA would have tested all airport and en route radar control systems rather then just the Denver systems.
  2. …programmers wouldn't still be working on the problem.
  3. ….the federal government wouldn't be reluctant to hold a nationwide Y2K test day.
  4. …the sewer system in Los Angeles wouldn't have spilled several millions of gallons of raw sewage into the city streets during a recent Y2K test.
  5. …the G8 meetings would not have urged member countries to urgently raise awareness among their populations.
  6. …Congress would have no reason to pass Y2K liability limitation legislation (and trial lawyers would have no reason to fight it).
  7. …federal agencies would have spent 100% of their Y2K budgets, and they would not be asking for an additional $1+ billion in emergency Y2K funds for fiscal year 2000.
  8. …President Clinton would be loudly and publicly proclaiming Y2K as being solved (and taking credit for it).
  9. …lawyers wouldn't be running seminars that teach other lawyers how to sue big companies over Y2K problems.
  10. …every publicly-traded company would file a non-ambiguous SEC statement claiming full compliance.
  11. …Y2K programmers, who make up barely 1% of the working population, wouldn't be buying up 10% of the long-term-storable food.
  12. …there would be no need to create fictitious subsets of systems-to-fix -- such as the now-famous "mission-critical" subset or, as President Clinton describes them, the "most important" systems.
  13. ...banks would have no reason to spend millions of dollars convincing people not to withdraw their funds.
  14. ...the members of the President's Year 2000 Council would be looking for new jobs.
  15. ...airlines would not be grounding their fleets on December 31, 1999.
  16. ...insurers would retract all the Y2K-immunity clauses they've issued over the past 18 months.
  17. ...federal agencies wouldn't be afraid to have outside auditors verify their claims.
  18. ...electric utilities, banks and federal agencies wouldn't now be naming "September" as their newest compliance target date.
  19. …Senator Bennett (R-Utah) would not be stockpiling food and water.
  20. ...company and agency spokespeople would stop using words like "ready" and start using "compliant."
  21. ...Janet Reno wouldn't have quietly created the "National Domestic Preparedness Office" to deal with Y2K.
  22. …President Clinton would not have recently modified Executive Order 13073 to include text describing the handling of Y2K emergencies and rebuilding efforts.
  23. ...Marines wouldn't be staging urban military exercises in major U.S. cities.
  24. …John Koskinen would not have to hold "community conversations" to urge calm about Y2K.
  25. …The President's Year 2000 Council would not currently be employing a big-name Public Relations firm to engineer a "calming" Y2K communications strategy.
  26. …Rep. Stephen Horn's government Y2K grade card would not have to be based on purely self-reported numbers: it could be based on audited, verified numbers.
  27. …Power plants wouldn't be stockpiling a 60-day supply of coal (the few that are…)
  28. …The NRC (Nuclear Regulatory Commission) would not be allowing on-site plant inspectors to make "exceptions" to safety rules in order to maintain the collective "safety" of the power grid.
  29. …The federal government would have no need to increase the stockpile of emergency oil reserves.
  30. …Government (both local and federal) would not be buying up all the high-output diesel generators on the market.
  31. …The banking industry would not be spending millions of dollars creating and running advertisements that attempt to persuade people that holding on to their own cash is a bad, bad, decision.
  32. …The GAO (Government Accounting Office) would be backing up the federal government's claims of compliance rather than challenging them (and exposing them as lies).
  33. …The Y2K budgets of every private company would have been entirely spent by now.
  34. …Nuclear power utilities would not be urgently issuing protective orders to prevent the public release of documents describing their Y2K status.
  35. …Insiders in law enforcement, Fortune 500 companies, oil companies, the military and the federal government would not be contacting Y2KNEWSWIRE and spilling the beans on how non-compliant their organizations really are.

  36. … The United States Post Office would not be firing people for refusing to falsify Y2K compliance documents.

No recent issue has divided Americans more than Y2K. Even as more evidence of the Y2K problem rolls in (Washington D.C. admitting they won't make it, the raw sewage spill in L.A., the increased food orders by Y2K programmers…), the two camps -- those who believe Y2K has been solved and those who don't -- appear to be hardening their positions.

What can it be, then, that makes intelligent, everyday people look at this information and reach the conclusion that Y2K has already been solved?

ORIGINS OF THE Y2K DISCONNECT
It is, of course, the Y2K Disconnect -- a twist on a well-documented pattern of denial in human history. When events challenge a person's investments (both financial and emotional), that person tends to disregard real world events in favor of his own version of reality.

This is well documented in investment circles (especially in commodities). When a commodities investor is, for example, long on corn, the whole world looks like it supports the rise in corn prices. But at the same time, another investor may be short on corn. To him, every event seems to confirm the soon-to-occur fall in corn prices.

And today, the American people are neck-deep in stocks -- more now than at any other time in history. Because Y2K threatens stock profits, it is easily filtered out of the day's events. People don't realize they are part of a centuries-long phenomenon of "selective attention" when it comes to events vs. investments.

But what is it, exactly, that allows this to happen? And how did people end up with such poor information about Y2K in the first place?

Non-Internet users, for one thing, have little or no access to investigative Y2K reporting. The majority of mainstream journalists are not investigating anything, they are reporting things. Press releases, mostly: today company X announced 97.56% compliance, and isn't that grand?

Too often in the mainstream press, a claim by an industry spokesperson becomes the headline for the story. For example, when the head of the American Bankers' Association says, "Banks will be ready," the headline for the newspaper story blares, "Banks to be ready for Y2K" The readers frequently mistake conclusions drawn by the publication for investigative conclusions. In fact, it is not usually the job of the newspaper (or magazine or TV news stations) to draw such conclusions; that is the job of the reader.

One responsibility of the news desk, historically, was to play Devil's Advocate with the organization making the claim. Skepticism, not appeasement, was the core attribute of any successful investigative journalist. Today, however, skepticism has been re-named "radical" by the Conformists: fit in or else. Go with the flow, don't rock the boat, don't question what we say… if you do, you just might cause a panic, because you know Y2K isn't a computer problem, don't you? It's a people problem. (This, the position now advocated by the banking industry, the pharmaceutical industry, and the Year 2000 Council.)

Unfortunately, the vast majority of Americans have chosen to go along with appeasement rather than skepticism. They have surrendered their responsibility to draw conclusions, handing it over to journalists who kicked it upstairs to the media owners. And those owners happen to be -- guess who? -- the very same companies that would be harmed by admitting to Y2K problems. Then, observing this journalistic incest, people continue to claim, "See? Y2K is solved. The media said so."

This is part of the origin of the Y2K Disconnect.

THE Y2K DISCONNECT IS…

…the conscious (or unconscious) ability to zoom in so close that the big picture isn't just missed; it is beyond the periphery. It is the ability to ignore interconnectedness in all its forms: between a news outlet and its owners, between a manufacturer and its parts suppliers, between a government-run benefits program and its beneficiaries. It is also the unwillingness to question mainstream news reports.

Essentially, it is a lack of cause / effect reasoning. Any person with a good sense of logic can easily see through the "Y2K is solved" fallacy. It doesn't take much effort, frankly, to dispel most of the myths.

But again, what led us to this situation? Why is a good portion of the American population unable to follow cause / effect logic?

SHORT-TERM, NOT LONG-TERM
For one thing, the people have been encouraged (by education, by government, by media) to think about the short-term while ignoring the long-term. This trains people to disregard the "effect" of any "cause." This is evident in the negative savings rate of the American population: give me the short-term entertainment of spending while I ignore the long-term pain of having to pay it back.

Same thing with government: with a national debt that is still in the trillions of dollars -- and not getting any smaller -- most of the "leaders" in Washington pretend there is some kind of surplus. Again: the long-term effect is all but forgotten. The short-term is all that matters: "Make sure those Social Security checks go out! That's a lot of voters!" But the national debt? Forget it, it's not important.

You see it in business: companies make decisions for the next quarter, not the next decade. In fact, this is the entire Y2K problem in a nutshell.

You see it in medicine: give me the drug to solve my short-term problem while ignoring the root cause -- the long-term -- of the problem. How many patients with a swollen, torn muscle are told to take aspirin? It is recommended a thousand times a day by doctors, oblivious to the fact that aspirin, by reducing the swelling, actually interferes with the long-term healing of the torn muscle. The next time around, the muscle is already susceptible to injury. (This, however, certainly creates repeat business for the medical profession…)

You see it in the press, of course. Just this week, a TechWeek story that reveals only 8% of large companies have finished Y2K remediation (and almost half are behind schedule) leads off with this headline, "Overreacting to Y2K could cause more harm." Short-term thinking: what will the Y2K-concerned people do? Ignored, the long-term thinking: what on Earth will all the employees of these companies do when they no longer have jobs?

You especially see it in investing: the stock market currently has no discount for Y2K. That means investors aren't taking Y2K into account in any serious way. People want to profit from the next short-term wave while ignoring the long-term risk of taking such a position. Investment advisors continue to tell people, "Invest for the long-term," but what they really mean is don't take your money out in the short-term, or you might miss the ride.

In all, the long-term is largely ignored (often because it takes more effort to see). The short-term is easy to spot: it's right in front of you. It's easy to say, for example, that this new government program created 50,000 new jobs. People can see that. But what's left unsaid is the fallacy of it all: government-paid jobs are not jobs at all -- they are a burden on the real economy, funded by private-sector taxpayers. They add nothing to the GDP of a nation, and in fact, they steal funds from taxpayers that could have been used in private-sector investment to create real jobs. Those are the long-term impacts of the short-term creation of these 50,000 jobs. Once again, the long-term is ignored.

THE SECOND CAUSE OF THE Y2K DISCONNECT
The Y2K Disconnect has another parent: conformity. To think intelligently -- and differently -- is to invite ridicule by your neighbors, your coworkers and your government. As a population, we are trained not to think outside the politically-correct boundaries. From the time we enter the government-run propaganda centers known as "schools," we are trained to accept authority, to fit in, to believe whatever we are told as long as it comes from a teacher, a person with a PhD, the press, or the government. To question these things is to invite immediate punishment. It is no more complicated than the rat in the electrified cage. You step over the boundaries, you get shocked.

For example, try watching a child in the 4th grade question whether Christopher Columbus was the "discoverer" of America. Naturally, this is just a myth: an abundance of physical evidence proves that explorers from other countries were here decades -- even centuries -- before Columbus ever landed. But Columbus is the "official" story, and more likely than not, the teacher is just as unaware of the truth as anyone else. Thus, the 4th grade student is pounded into line. "Believe Columbus or else!"

That's the message today. "Believe Y2K is solved or else!" Or else what? Or else you will be ridiculed. You will be punished. And in the end, you will be blamed for causing the problems.

For many people, that's all it takes. They jump back into line. "Yessir!" They're good little citizens: they do what they're told.

If you rock the boat, you might just cause a panic, didn't you know?

SHRUG OFF THE DISCONNECT
You are an intelligent being. You can shrug off the temporary effects of the Y2K Disconnect simply by reclaiming your own natural ability to think, to make decisions, to follow cause / effect logic. You are not a robot. As a human being with a powerful soul, you have the ability to make these decisions for yourself and to take proactive action.

The only way to shrug off the Disconnect is to realize you have been under its influence. You can't escape a cage you don't think exists, of course. So now, if you really want to get out of the herd and see what's really going on, your first job is to see the cage. Notice the boundaries that have been placed on your thoughts and your behavior. This act alone is empowering.

Next, you must take one step outside the boundaries. Test the waters, see what happens. You will be battered, of course, by the herd-minders who want you to come back into line. They might be your neighbors, your friends, even your coworkers. Don't pay attention to that: your independent thinking is making them look foolish, and they want to punish you for it. Move ahead.

When you break away from the herd enough, you will discover the grass really is greener on the other side. Not only that, you will find yourself among highly-capable, intelligent human beings who control their own destinies; who decide what they are going to think and believe, not what the herd wants them to believe.

(How, exactly do you accomplish this? First of all, you read your information, don't let people tell it to you. That means turning off the television for good. Throw it out. From here on out, you take responsibility for what you read: read the news and think, don't sit on the couch and let the networks stuff your brain with garbage.)

In this place, away from the herd, the air is fresher, the grass is greener, and you will be able to examine Y2K with a sense of clarity. You won't be very popular here, of course, because the herd has moved on. You will, however, be empowered.

Welcome to the land of original thought, where Y2K isn't a joke or a myth. It's a serious problem that is easily survivable. From the outside, Y2K suddenly becomes clear: it challenges all the myths, the half-truths, and the fiction of the establishment. It challenges the fractional reserve banking system, the faith in technology, the faith in big government, the belief that highly-complex financial entitlement systems make the world a better place. It challenges a highly-complex tax code, the "automated" society, the fractional policing system, the daily surrender of personal privacy to computers.

From the outside, from that green grass, you can see the Y2K problem encapsulated: it is a giant bubble, filled with dark, strange logic, warped thinking, poor communication, and outright deceit. It's all stirred up in there, the mixture of people and computers, the bubble boundaries, the herd population.

And now you know why they don't want this bubble to pop. It would spill everybody out into the green grass. It would give them their first opportunity to see outside the bubble. It would force them to think.

BOTTOM LINE
The Y2K Disconnect is:

To shrug off the Y2K Disconnect:

As you do this, you will find yourself empowered not only about Y2K, but about the entire world. This is one way in which Y2K can have a lasting, positive effect on humanity. It can wake up a large number of people. How about you?

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