First:
Here is a good list from Y2KNEWSWIRE.COM of items that may disappear in the panic in the months ahead...get them while you can! Click here
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Here is some possible scenarios from Capers Jones, one of the industry's best. Lays out what may be in store begining in 2000:
************* link: http://www.comlinks.com/contingency/cjurban2.htm
Calendar Year 2000
The worst-case scenario for January of 2000 would be protracted loss of electrical power and telephone services for a period of two weeks or more, coupled with disruption of public water supplies. For cities with cold climates, extended loss of electric power could lead to substantial collateral damages such as burst pipes and deaths of homeless persons.
Once the year 2000 event has occurred, it can be expected that at least several months of emergency work will be needed to repair software and data base applications that were not repaired in time. In addition, substantial manual backup work will be needed to perform activities that would normally be done by computer: preparing W2 tax forms and issuing municipal paychecks, for example.
By about March of 2000, assuming 24-hour a day emergency software repairs, most of municipal the software and computerized applications should be restored to service. However this assumes that electric power outtages, water shortages, and other infrastructure damages are not too severe, and will be rapidly repaired.
The Spring and Summer of the year 2000 will be spent in attempting to restore municipal government operations to pre-2000 levels of performance. The more serious issues during this period will be the economic damages and tax revenue reductions.
Municipal governments face a possible four-fold set of damages from the year 2000, as pointed out in Capers Jones book The Year 2000 Software Problem - Quantifying the Costs and Assessing the Consequences (Addison Wesley, 1997).
Municipal year 2000 repair expenses will be high, and exceed planned budgets.
Municipal repairs will be less than 100%, leading to possible lawsuits.
Year 2000 problems may well lower municipal bond revenues.
Local tax revenues will be reduced due to corporate year 2000 problems.
The aftermath of the year 2000 problem may result in some municipal bankruptcies. Even if bankruptcy does not occur, there will probably be a need to raise local taxes and reduce some local services to pay for year 2000 damages. There may be State and Federal year 2000 relief, but none is currently committed as this is written.
There will also be negative political fallout from the year 2000 event. Elected officials who were not proactive about year 2000 repairs will probably not be reelected. For several years, a political leader?s stance on year 2000 problems will no doubt play a significant part in election results.
January 2000:
February 2000:
March 2000:
The economic aftershock from the year 2000 problem may well last for years. The worst case assumption for a municipal government would be such severe reductions in tax revenues coupled with lawsuits for urban year 2000 damages that municipal bankruptcy occurs. The worst case situation would occur if electricity and water supplies were shut down long enough to cause major infrastructure damages and local business failures.
The expected case for municipal governments would be a stressful period that lasts from mid 1999 through the end of fiscal year 2000 and perhaps into 2001. During this period emergency repairs and recovery would be dominant activities, but the year 2000 problem would not be severe enough to trigger bankruptcy.
The best case for municipal governments would be only minor problems between about October of 1999 (when the Federal fiscal year begins) and June of 2000, by which time unrepaired year 2000 problems would be under control.
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Year 2000 Economics
