Starting on Thursday, Jan 20th, some of the computers saw a major storm for late on the 26th into the 27th develop along the SE coast & head north. A weaker storm was expected on the 25th, but would head out to sea. Wrong!!!

The computers were all over the place through the 24th. The NWS at Brookhaven actually put this out:

WEATHER MAP DISCUSSION FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK... NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1030 AM EST MON JAN 24 2000 ...SNOW POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY... OVER THE PAST WEEK...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND HAVE PASSED WELL OFFSHORE TO OUR EAST WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO THE TRI-STATE AREA. A MORNING FORECAST MODEL INDICATES A MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM WILL FORM ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE UP THE COAST ON TUESDAY. DEPENDING UPON THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THIS STORM COULD RESULT IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THIS IS ONLY A "HEADS UP" AT THIS POINT. RECENT COMPUTER FORECASTS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT AND WRONG AT TIMES.

Now I didn't know quite what to believe, other than I thought there was a fair chance for something to happen.

Then they issued this:

URGENT- WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 952 PM EST MON JAN 24 2000 ..LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL HEAD NORTH/NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW EXISTS FOR THE WARNED AREA. FURTHER EAST...A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP AMOUNTS DOWN. ..THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TUESDAY... LOOK FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF GENERALLY 3 TO 6 INCHES BY TUESDAY EVENING. (That was for Nassau County, New York City and north and west of there. This was for Suffolk County.) ..THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY... LOOK FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES BY TUESDAY EVENING. ..THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW...THEN A MIXTURE OF SLEET BY LATE MORNING. A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IS ANTICIPATED FOR A TIME. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

So it looked like I would get some snow, sleet, and rain. This was my last post to WEATHERFUN on the 24th.

Date: Tue, Jan 25, 2000, 12:40am To: WEATHERFUN@onelist.com Subject: Long Island My temp at 11:30 was 31.2. It's now 31.9. The track of this storm is starting to pull in the "warmer" ocean air. Ocean temp 20 miles south of Long Island is 41.3. I may get mostly rain if this thing keeps on a mostly north course. Easy shoveling. Bedtime for me.

This came out later.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK... NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 400 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2000 ..WINTER STORM WARNING FOR TODAY FOR THE NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY METROPOLITAN AREAS...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...AND SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT... ..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT... A MAJOR WINTER STORM HAS TAKEN SHAPE JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA...AS IT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...WILL MOVE FROM A POSITION JUST EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING TO A SHORT DISTANCE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND LATE IN THE DAY. THIS TRACK IS CLASSIC TO PRODUCE A STRIPE OF HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE AREA. THE FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THIS INTENSE STORM WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO BRING WARMER OCEAN AIR INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS. THESE AREAS...LIKE MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT WILL EXPERIENCE A CHANGE OVER TO SLEET AND THEN RAIN. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE...WHERE THE TRANSITION OF RAIN AND SNOW OCCURS...WILL START OFF JUST SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND AS THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS. IT WILL THEN MIGRATE NORTHWEST AND TRAVERSE ALL OF SUFFOLK COUNTY LONG ISLAND AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT BY AROUND NOON. IT WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD AND END UP NEAR EASTERN NASSAU COUNTY LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL NEW HAVEN COUNTY OF CONNECTICUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EAST OF THIS LINE...SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LOWER...AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES. FURTHER WEST...WHERE THE WARNING HAS BEEN POSTED...SNOW WILL PICK UP IN INTENSITY AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. THIS DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO INCREASE AS WELL...LEADING TO NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY. HEAVY FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WHIPPED BY NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH...WILL MAKE TRAVEL EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS. TOTAL SNOWFALL IN THESE LOCATIONS IS EXPECTED TO REACH 4 TO 6 INCHES IN AND NEAR NEW YORK CITY...AND AS MUCH AS 6 TO 9 INCHES ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.

The snow started falling around 4:45 AM. It changed to light sleet around 8 AM, with winds 15-25 mph, highest gust 36 mph, & temps which were 27 started to rise. By 9 AM a light mist like rain & temp 30.5. Snowfall so far 2 3/4". Travel from mid-morning on around Suffolk County on Long Island was not been too bad. Plows were out early, & main roads are wet & slushy.

This radar picture at noon, clearly shows why the precip ended

This radar shows the rain/sleet/snow line.

As I had thought the night before, movement was almost due north and the warmer temps off the ocean was causing the changeover. The NWS was now seeing this.

URGENT- WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1151 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2000 ..THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUES THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE METRO AREA...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST CONNECTICUT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... ..THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONTINUES THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON... A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST. IT HAD PUSHED IN SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION. THE SNOW HAD CHANGED OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN OVER MOST SECTIONS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY...WE EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO IN ADVISORY AREAS BRINGING STORM TOTALS TO 3 TO 5 INCHES. (For the City north & west) A VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST HAD PRODUCED SNOW AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE SNOW HAD BECOME A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN MOST SECTIONS OF THE REGION. AS THE STORM PULLS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES COULD FALL AFTER THE WINTRY MIX CHANGES BACK TO SNOW.

The afternoon was overcast but dry. Around 4 PM a very light mist started to fall. When I went out at 5:30, it had been freezing, and things were getting very slippery.
The off and on light freezing rain continued until 10 PM, at which time I noticed that I wasn't getting any wind speed readings and the direction showed East. OBS in the area showed the winds going NW and the barometer starting to rise, as was mine. The lowest reading was 29.09. Now that would make a good hurricane reading.

The NWS was doing a better job of following the storm.

   NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1000 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2000 SUFFOLK NY- ..WINTER STORM WARNING CANCELLED... ..WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1000 PM EST TUESDAY UNTIL 400 AM EST WEDNESDAY... A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN AS WELL EARLY. THIS WILL CREATE SOME MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF. ANY SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES.

Light sleet started falling around 10 PM and quickly changed to a very light snow. Picked up an additional 1/4" for a total of 3", but there was a thin coating of ice on everything.

So the storm turned out not to be as bad as they thought it would be early on the 25th, but it wasn't bad. Raleigh,NC had a record 20", Washington had 18", & NYC had 5".

The pictures are on