This page is specifically designed for sheer speculation for the hardcore wx ethusiest. If you want to hear how sunny its going to be tomorrow, then do yourself a favor and GET THE FUCK OUT!
| Forecast Updated: 10/11/05 | HM Winter Outlook for Philly 04-05 Since July, I have developed ideas in which take the low anomaly and shift it east throughout the cold season. While in alaska/w. n america, it will shift to central n. america (NDJ)and eventually eastern n america. Its projected to be in BOS area for FMA and cut out into Atlantic in the spring MAM/AMJ periods. THat continues to be the general idea, despite the uneasy specifics w/ retrogression, blocking and fluke storms in between the warm periods. Anticipating weak el nino west conditions for the seasonal period NDJ and DJF. At that point, it really doesnt matter if QBO changes, as long as it stays relatively weak/near neutral, which it should. Im expecting a very cold / snowy period to devour the midsection of the nation for NDJ period w/ occasional flukes for PHL. Split flow, undercutting and retrogression will be common and will lead to strong storms this year. Due to the relatively weak nature of the el nino event, warm air shouldnt overwhelm the pattern and this means cold air could supply a relatively strong baroclinic zone. WEAK el nino-west and weak la nina-east seasons tend to have very strong baroclinic zones and deep surface low pressures. Whenever the NAO shifts negative in the NDJ period, (mid-late NOV, mid DEC and mid JAN), the fluke alert should be sounded. However, majority of these storms will track inland and jump. Once the mean H5 low shifts into new england/eastern canda, that is when coastals, inland jumpers and surpressors will be much more common like in DEC 2003 and winter of 2002-03 type tracks. Negative NAO periods this winter look to be mid, but especially late NOV, mid DEC, then again mid JAN (getting increasingly that way through the early part), and then through much of very late jan, FEB and early MAR. AFTER the big bomb in early MAR, it will go positive, only to go negative again later in the month through mid APR! STORM threats: nov 20-25 heavy rain, cold NOV 25-30 snow threat, accumulations away from coast. DEC 1-5 warming up w/ mix precip developing. DEC 10-15 mild, wet then colder. DEC 15-20 more rain,sleet, snow inland. DEC 20-25 seasonable, gettig milder. DEC 25-30 rain and snow to rain. JAN 1-5 colder then rain, snow inland. JAN 5-10 seasonable. JAN 10-15 rain. JAN 15-20, cold then icestorm, considerable damage, inland snow. JAN 20-25 more rain and snow. JAN 25-30 colder, snow end of month. FEB 1-5 cold with snow developing. FEB 5-10 snowstorm, widespread heavy accumulation. FEB 10-15 cold, snow south. FEB 15-20, cold, flurries. FEB 20-25 major snowstorm, heavy snows inland, rain far southeast. FEB 25-MAR 5 cold w/ major noreaster, severe winds, bombing low pressure and snow, this occurs MAR 2-5 timeframe. MAR 5-10 cold dry. surpressed. MAR 10-15, heavy rain, sleet and snow. MAR 15-20 colder and drier. MAR 20-25 heavy snow to rain. Couple of points to address and wild cards about this winter season/outlook: 1)weak-el nino west are known for big storms loaded w/ moisture and deepening SLP. It may only take one storm this winter to bring some of our mid atlantic cities to normal/above normal snow. Its more constant of course north and west. 2)Interior northeast will see a very snowy winter, some record setting amounts. 3) The FEB/MAR storm threats could potentially be very deep lows, especially early MAR. CUrrent ideas are JUST inland of PHL, big blizzard conditions. 4)IF these storms are JUST further east than projected, could lead to busts on the higher side for many coastal cities. MY analogs this winter are 1946-47, 1940-41, 1913-14, 1915-16, 1906-07, 1978-79 and 1987-88. Honorable mention is 77-78, 33-34 and 66-67 PHL prediction--> DEC temp: +1.0, snow: 2-4" .... JAN temp: -0.5 to +0.5, snow: 3-5", FEB temp: -3, snow: 10-14" ... MAR temp: -2, snow: 5-7" ... average TEMP for DJFM: -1.0 and average snow total for DJFM (using 3,4, 12 and 6) is 25 inches. Total for NOV-APR could be closer to 30 inches b/c there is potential for late NOV light snow accumulation and again in early april. ALSO things could be closer to 30 inches if things are snowy than planned. THE SNOWIEST outcome would be 30-34 inches, the least snowiest outcome would be 20 inches, or near normal. SO I am predicting PHL defintely reaches normal, and above to around 25. |
Note that a lot of this outlook is very experimental. Last year I pretty much stated the forecast, outlined the winter highlights and gave the numbers for PHL. This year, im doing some experimental/analysis on NAO forecasting and storm tracks, to better illustrate my ideas. I do feel that the first half of the cold season is generally the tracks that favor snow into the midwest and interior northeast vs the coastal cities/new england. Many storms will come from the 4corners/rockies across the country into either interior northeast/lakes or jump from n-c apps to new england coast. Another category would be the occasional western gulf storm, which could bring serious snows into the midwest and warm wx into the east coast. Occasional flukes will occur, especially in the NOV 20-30 period, near 25th, DEC 5-20 period, or mid dec, w/ perhaps some interesting wx dec 15-20. And also JAN gets more active in PHL as the NAO gets moRE and more negative. The pattern grows more and more convoluted.. while JAN will feature a major midwest snowstorm, the increasingly negative NAO will help w/ perhaps an iCE storm, highlighted in the outlook above. THEN more snow end of the month and colder as NAO tanks for FEB. In fEb-mar, the gulf/east coast tracks, surpressors and type Bs will be more common, the dates for these are all guesswork. But the ideas are there for at least 3 important winter storms in the PHL area for these two months. There is some indication that if the weak el nino-west conditions can persist, there could be a hellish storm in early MAR period, first 10 days. If qbo changes, the storm threats dont, but we may not deal w/ the kind of storm that could have occured.
A lot of BIG storms w/ deep lows and a lot of moisture will be common, but most PHILLY snow lovers will be on edge waiting for the occasional fluke and second 1/2. I expect interior northeast, new england to get a lot of snow this winter, and interior sections could break records, where they recieve the snow ALL winter whereas PHL doesnt.
Temp anomalies forecast from ECPC for the next 4 seasonal periods. Overlayed is where I think the H5 low anomaly will be, so you can see the comparison between two forecasts. As you can see, we differ on the complete migration east, but I think the models are generally in that direction overall.
