Speaking of which, Republicans currently control the House of Representatives 228-205-1, with one seat currently vacant. At a minimum, Democrats will end up with fewer than 200 seats after the 2004 elections. I predict a Republican gain of 6 seats.

******PREDICTIONS******

This will be a great year for incumbents. The POTENTIAL is there for as many as 15 incumbents to lose but I'll be surprised if more than 3 lose outide of Texas, where several Democrats are endangered. I'm predicting that EVERY INCUMBENT OUTSIDE TEXAS WINS. That is at once safe and radical. We'll see.

OPEN SEATS:
CO-3: Walcher 50.5, Salazar 49.5
KY-4: Davis 50+, Clooney 50-
LA-3: Tauzin III 38, Melancon 22, Romero 20, Others 20 -- Tauzin wins runoff
LA-7: Boustany 33, Mount 30, Cravins 25, Thibodeaux 7 -- Boustany wins runoff
NY-27: Naples 52, Higgins 48
PA-8: Fitzpatrick 57, Schrader 43
PA-13: Schwartz 55, Brown 45
PA-15: Dent 56, Driscoll 44
WA-5: McMorris 55, Barbieri 45
WA-8: Reichert 51, Ross 49

For the rest of the predictions, see the ratings below.

Democrat Incumbents

TX-19: Charlie Stenholm vs. Randy Neugebauer
Democrat Stenholm has a regional reputation but barely survived a challenge in his old district.
Republican Freshman Randy Neugebauer will have a tough race but the district is very kind for Republicans.
Upshot Neugebauer is the clear favorite and leads Stenholm in the only released poll.

TX-2: Nick Lampson
Opponent Most likely Judge Ted Poe, famous for his creative sentences.
Upshot This race will be closer than some others, but Poe should win.

TX-32: Martin Frost vs. Pete Sessions
Democrat After many years, Frost is a goner.
Republican Sessions is a seasoned, well-funded incumbent.
Upshot Frost just can't handle this new district.

TX-1: Max Sandlin
Opponent Probably state rep. Wayne Christian.
Upshot Sandlin is seen as the surest bet to lose of the Texans.

KS-3: Dennis Moore
2002 margin: 50-48 over Adam Taff
Opponent Adam Taff, the 2002 nominee, will be opposed in the primary by two highly qualified conservatives: state rep. Patricia Lightner and Justice Department lawyer Kris Kobach, both of Overland Park. Pro-life Kobach has rivalled pro-abortion Taff in campaign contributions, while Lightner has lagged considerably. Kobach, a former Overland Park city councilor, is running on homeland security, illegal immigration, tax cuts, and education. Kansas Republicans have had several divisive primary fights over the abortion issue, and this looks to be another in the string.
Primary August __
Upshot Moore has won three close races in this GOP-leaning seat. One of these times his luck will run out.

GA-3: Jim Marshall
2002 margin: 51-49 over Calder Clay
Opponent Calder Clay, former Bibb County Commissioner
Upshot Marshall, a pro-life Catholic, is in the wrong party. He'll get another strong challenge in 2004 from Calder Clay. In Marshall's favor is his moderate voting record and the advantage of incumbency. Working against him is the collapse of the Georgia Democratic Party. Marshall is favored to win, but the race will be close either way.

OR-5: Darlene Hooley
2002 margin: 55-45 over Brian Boquist
Opponent Jim Zupancic or Jackie Winters. Brian Boquist announced he will not run this time, in keeping with the tone of his public statements and in harmony with my prediction: ("I would bet Boquist does not end up running, especially considering the quality of the other announced candidates"). Jim Zupancic is the preferred establishment choice and probably more conservative, though state senator and restauranteur Jackie Winters will generate a great deal of interest as a very personable politician with a record of electoral success and an African American.
Upshot Hooley has a relatively conservative district with only a slight Democrat tilt, but she will still have an edge as an incumbent.

LA-5: Rodney Alexander
2002 margin: 50-50
Opponent Probably former congressman John Cooksey
Upshot Elected in a 2002 runoff after GOP infighting handed him a narrow victory, Alexander, though a social conservative, will have a tough race in 2004 if he faces Cooksey. There's no real impetus to replace him, though, given his conservative voting record. He briefly considered switching to the GOP in 2004, but decided against it.

ND-AL: Earl Pomeroy
2002 margin: 52-48
Opponent Former naval officer Duane Sand

Upshot Two member of Team North Dakota, now in the minority hinterlands, are up for re-election in 2004: Pomeroy and Sen. Byron Dorgan. Pomeroy can be taken out, but a good campaign is needed to make that a reality. Duane Sand walked across the state in a hopeless campaign in 2000 against Sen. Kent Conrad, but now has name recognition for this run.

UT-2: Jim Matheson
2002 margin: 49-49 over Swallow

Opponent Probably John Swallow, outside chance for Tim Bridgewater or David Wilde
Primary June 22
Upshot It's amazing Matheson is still kicking in ultra-Republican Utah. He almost succumbed to a surprisingly strong challenge from state rep John Swallow in 2002, prevailing by 2,000 votes. Matheson is the son of former Utah governor Scott Matheson, Sr., and his brother Scott, Jr. is running for governor in 2004. Swallow is running again, and hoping for stronger Republican turnout in a presidential year.

NY-1: Michael Bishop
2002 margin: 50-49 over incumbent Republican Felix Grucci
Opponent John Jay LaValle is out, so Bill Manger or perhaps legislator Michael Caracciolo will run. Other candidates will give the race a look as well.
Upshot This Long Island seat leans GOP and was lost in 2002 by an inept incumbent, Felix Grucci. A solid challenger should be able to pick off this freshman. LaValle was the best Republicans had to offer, but he had a little thing called a wedding to attend to this year.

PA-17: Tim Holden
2002 margin: over fellow incumbent George Gekas
Opponent One possibility among the many candidates running is football scion Scott Paterno, who has drawn support from national party figures.
Upshot Holden managed to beat a lethargic incumbent when their districts were merged in 2002. The district leans strongly Republican but Holden is a pro-life moderate.

ME-2: Michael Michaud
2002 margin: over Kevin Raye
Opponent Jobs developer Brian Hamel
Upshot "Jobs developer" is a great occupation for a candidate to have in 2004, especially in this district, which has faced several closings since Michaud went to Congress in 2002. This is an odd race in that the Democrat is pro-life while the Republican is pro-abortion.

OR-1: David Wu
2002 margin:
Republican Tim Phillips and Goli Ameri.
Upshot Strongest challenge Republicans have put forward for this seat in a decade.

FL-2: Allen Boyd
2002 margin:
Opponent Cosmetologist and state representative Bev Kilmer.
Upshot Kilmer is a strong, well-funded challenger who has Boyd on the defensive. This is the strongest challenge Boyd has faced.

IN-9: Baron Hill
2002 margin: 51-46 over Sodrel
Opponent Mike Sodrel
Upshot Sodrel will pour more money into a second challenge after self-funding much of his last campaign. He came close in 2002 and has a shot in 2004, though Hill is still favored.

WI-3: Ron Kind
2002 margin:
Opponent State Senator Dale Schultz, a farmer and veteran.
Upshot Schultz is the strongest challenger Kind has faced in years, and he will benefit from a strong Republican focus on this district from the Bush-Cheney campaign and the state Republican Party. It's an uphill race nonetheless.

IA-3: Leonard Boswell
2002 margin: over attorney Stan Thompson
Opponent Stan Thompson, again.
Upshot Rematches rarely pan out, but this time Anderson has a strong top of the ticket to follow and a new issue: Boswell is breaking his term limits pledge to run again in 2004.

KY-6: Ben Chandler
2003 margin: 54-44 in a special election
Opponent Likely state Senator Tom Buford.
Upshot Chandler rebounded from his gubernatorial defeat to take this open house seat in a swing district. Buford will be scutinizing Chandler's every vote up until the election.

Democrat Open Seats

TX-10: OPEN SEAT (Redistricting)
District .
Republican Attorney Mike McCaul has been drawing plaudits and endorsements in a large field.
Primary March 9th.
Upshot No Democrats filed for this seat, so the Republican nominee is the new Congressman.

TX-11: OPEN SEAT (Redistricting)
District Midland, etc.
Republican This district was drawn for Mike Conaway, a friend of President George W. Bush who finished 2nd in the race for Larry Combest's open seat in 2003. Professor Bill Lester is running hard, but is the underdog.
Democrat Teacher Wayne Raasch.
Primary March 9th.
Upshot Say hello to Congressman Conaway.

TX-24: OPEN SEAT (Redistricting)
District Dallas area
Republican State representative Kenny Marchant is the favorite.
Primary March 9th.
Upshot Marchant will likely take this seat, considering he drew it for himself.

MO-3: Richard "Dick" Gephardt
2002 GOP vote: Gephardt 60%, Enz 39%
GOP Nominee Former state Representative Zane Yates and 2000 nominee Bill Federer are running. Yates was the assistant floor leader in the House before resigning to become a family court commissioner. He is only 42 but politically able and an appealing candidate. He ran against Matt Blunt for the Sec. State nomination in 2000, so he has solid name recognition.
Dem Nominee Running so far: Gephardt ally state Senator Steve Stoll (say THAT ten times fast!); state Rep Rick Johnson.
Upshot Dick Gephardt is giving up the House seat he has held for 26 years and running for president. While Gephardt hasn't had any very close races, he only received 59% in 2002 against an under-supported challenger. Republicans should be competitive in an open-seat race, and will likely target it as a key pickup opportunity.