It is early July, well finance before this article goes online, yet the landscape is pretty clear from where I stand. After flattening out for a year and beginning to invert in March, the yield curve in the US had already inverted for a whole three months by June. Finally, there just haven't been enough historical business cycles to confidently say an inverted yield curve means a recession is coming.

Also, many officials from the Fed have expressed their skepticism about the importance of the shape of the yield curve. An inverted yield curve is consistent with the VIX index - a measure of expected volatility of US equities, based on options pricing - to rise around 30 per cent over the next two years.

By developing and sticking to a long-term plan that is in line with their risk tolerance, investors may be better able to look past short-term noise and focus on investing in a systematic way that will help meet long-term goals. It could be because long-term bonds reveal investors' expectations about future growth and lower rates mean more pessimism.

The yield curve on the 10-year and three-month Treasury notes had already inverted in March. In fact, three of the last 10 times that the yield curve inverted, no recession occurred over the following two-year window, per Goldman Sachs research in March of 2019.

For instance, these days it would appear that Volatility is the primary factor in the slow-down of real estate markets, due to lower speculation which is causing a upward shift in Equity Risk (the lower the prices, the higher the risk) through lower demand, which in turn generates an inventory surplus.