Previews of others as posted on various message boards.


This is a copy of the Grote Poll dated September 7. Not Sure if this has already been posted. Feel free to skip the first part of Grotes random thoughts to get to the actual poll.

Thursday, September 7, 2000.

 I had begun the Grote Poll yesterday, however I
> did not save it, there was a power surge, and it was
> gone. So, I begin again...entering the 4th fall of
> NCAA Division I Cross-Country Prognostication
> Excellence and Entertainment after the conclusion of
> my own collegiate journey. I am Grote and this is
> my Poll.
>
> Tuesday morning a meteorological turn for the
> better swept through the Garden State. After days
> of heavy, humid, hot air, a refreshing blast greeted
> me from the northwest. A few strides into my
> morning jaunt in the woods, my hands were chilled,
> the hair on my arms stood up, and vapor from my
> breath was visible. One day after Labor Day, I
> could feel the fall. Silence was abound in the
> woods, other than the occassional flatulence caused
> by the lingering digestion of the previous night's
> diner food (chocolate chip pancakes and fries) and
> my rhythmic footstrikes on the trail. My mind
> wandered and danced about, then the breeze rustling
> the limbs and leaves beckoned to me...Grote Poll,
> Grote Poll, Grote Poll. I could sense that the time
> for cross-country was near and that the time to
> forecast and prognosticate was upon me. Who cares
> about the Olympics anyway? I am Grote and this is
> my Poll.
>
> If you read this, you must understand that it
> is pointless to disagree, complain, whine, or
> correct me. For, I am Grote and this is MY Poll.
> Irrevence and ignorance will run rampant in it.
> There will be factual misinformation throughout this
> and future Grote Poll's, especially as I grow older
> and further removed from the collegiate loop. It is
> acceptable to give me help, such as who is
> redshirting, injured, or a new recruit, but it is
> impossible for me to be wrong about my
> prognostications. That said, let me move on...
>
> In this fourth season post-Grote in NCAA action,
> some things have changed (I'm married now) and
> improved, namely there are more Americans running
> faster, and overall more competitive programs. High
> Schoolers are speeding up and so are collegians. It
> has gotten to the point where sub 14 and sub 29 are
> close to commonplace for Americans, which is a good
> sign.
>
> Some things remain unchanged, as nationals will
> again be held nowhere near a major center of
> population, keeping in tune with the last few years
> of Greeneville, Lawrence, and Bloomington. Arkansas
> and Stanford open at 1-2 in the always bland coaches
> poll, however in my poll expect Colorado to be
> thrown into the mix once again.
>
> Trends that I see, aside from the already
> mentioned faster times, are a resurggence in some
> East Coast programs. Both Iona and Georgetown
> figure to be dominant and could well challenge for a
> top 5 or podium spot. Providence could also be in
> the mix. Villanova is on the rise again. Princeton
> should make it 4 straight trips to NCAA's. NC State
> will again face a stiff challenge from William and
> Mary. All this will come in greater detail shortly
> in the Grote Poll Top 31, which as always is
> composed of the 31 teams I expect to be in the
> national meet.
>
> Before I go into that, and despite what I just
> said about the East Coast uprising, let me hit on a
> few points region by region. The Mountain and West
> Regions are still the toughest. Colorado figures to
> win the Mountain, after a stunning upset to Southern
> Utah last year, but will be pressed by top 10
> hopefuls BYU, NAU, Weber State, and SUU. The West
> will be won by Stanford, but Oregon could match last
> year's 6th showing with its youngsters, and Arizona
> is tough again. The dogfight will be for the other
> at-large teams, Cal Poly SLO, ASU, Washington, and
> my beloved Portland Pilots. The Great Lakes loses
> some of its top end luster with Notre Dame
> redshirting 28:26 10k guy Ryan Shay, and Michigan
> keeping Mike Wisniewski on the sideline. Those two
> teams will still be top 10 threats, but probably a
> notch behind Wisconsin, as the Badgers re-loaded
> from graduation losses after last fall's runner-up
> showing. Look out for Ohio State, who's been
> getting closer, as well as Central Michigan and
> Butler. The Midwest will be a two team tangle at
> the top with improving Minnesota and young Oklahoma
> State. The South is getting better with Alabama led
> by the formidable duo of Kimani-Mutai, and South
> Florida and Tennessee fighting for the other auto
> spot. NC State keeps its top 4 trophy, but loses 6
> of the guys who won it. However, depth is not a
> problem, and Dugan is good up front. William and
> Mary, sans Lane, will push NC State, though, and
> after that it will be tight with JMU, Duke, and
> maybe Clemson. The Northeast is good at the top
> with Iona and Providence, then is pretty open for
> 3rd with Dartmouth the leader for a spot likely to
> get an at-large. Brown, Army, Columbia are also
> possibilities. The Mid-Atlantic should go to
> Georgetown, with new frontman Franklyn Sanchez
> battling Princeton's Paul Morrison up front.
> Princeton looks good for another auto, and Villanova
> should return to nationals. After that, watch out
> for unheralded LaSalle, and then usual suspects
> Bucknell, St. Joe's, Penn State. That leaves the
> South Central, or Arkansas' Region. Once again the
> Hogs will make it a bloodbath. Who is up for 2nd?
> Rice went to NCAA's last year taking DFL as a team,
> but they return 5 of 7 whereas Texas A&M (22nd)
> loses a lot, including 14th placer Scott Legenfeld.
> So, it may be Rice or maybe Texas A&M or SMU or
> Tulane or Texas Tech or Texas Christian or
> Texas-Justaboutanything other than just plain Texas,
> right? I mean TEXAS????? Do you know how they
> hired as a mens cross-country coach? Look it up.
>
> That is enough of that, time to get to the real
> part, for I am Grote and here is my Poll...THE GROTE
> POLL TOP 31:
>
>
> 1. STANFORD- The Cardinal faded to an ugly for them
> 4th at NCAA's last year. Do not read too much into
> that, and do not worry that they will be weakened by
> Jennings and Stember doing the Olympic thing. I am
> a little unclear about how much guidance Vin will
> give once he shifts his attentions more on the Farm
> Team, but this team for now looks too good to not be
> on the top. Why? Jonathon Riley, only 20th last
> year, is good enough to win. Thomas Murley (16th)
> is back. Last year's two bigtime frosh who did not
> contribute at NCAA's, Luchini and Powell could run
> right with those two. Particularly Luchini, who is
> my sleeper pick to run in the top 10. Little Louie
> ran 28:54 last year as a true frosh without much
> fanfare. Powell of course ONLY ran 3:40...watch
> out. Adam Tenforde had a less illustrious frosh
> year, but ran 8:54 in high school, it would not be
> shocking for him to rise up several levels in his
> second year. Frick and Frack were good as freshmen,
> but not great, 14teens, then they exploded as sophs.
> Then you bring in Hawkins and Robison off of their
> missions, and don't forget about Don Sage. Top
> notch US High Schoolers like Sage are fully capable
> of being All-Americans right away, or better. Sage
> ran every bit as well as Kennedy or Goucher in high
> school, go ahead and look up their frosh cross
> seasons. If necessary, Jennings and/or Stember
> could probably contribute at season's end, too.
>
> 2. ARKANSAS- After dominating the national meet
> with a 127-point victory margin, McDonnell return
> only three of his potent top 7, losing the top two.
> Stanford and Colorado were both better than they ran
> at nationals last year, so the big win was a tad
> overblown. Likewise, the Hogs ONLY returning 3 guys
> is also misleading. Look at those 3: Karanu, Link,
> and Karie. Their respective finishes at last year's
> meet were 10th, 22nd, and 73rd, but do not think
> that Karie can't run with Karanu, and do not forget
> the stellar track season by Link. Who the other two
> in the top 5 will be is a mystery right now, but
> there is plenty of talent in Fayetteville, and
> plenty of motivation and determination to uphold a
> tradition and a title.
>
> 3. COLORADO- The Buffs were better than the 7th
> place finish that they showed last year. Jorge
> Torres was better than his 47th, and now is good
> enough to challenge for the title after his 13:42
> frosh track debut, and a good solid summer in
> Boulder. Mike Friedeberg returns after following up
> his All-American x-c season with a 28:50 on the
> track. Blondeau should be healthy and back in form,
> which is 13:51 PR for 5k and tough as they come in
> cross-country. Ed Torres had a good enough frosh
> season, breaking 14:20, and Steve Slattery will be
> out to breakthrough in x-c after not running in last
> year's nationals. Slattery could form a trio
> upfront with Torres and Friedeberg that is along the
> lines of Arkansas and Stanford, as his 8:35 steeple
> shows how far he has come and he is traditionally a
> great harrier. Sean Smith could be the latest in a
> long line of "Who's He" All-Americans. This could
> be CU's best team ever, they are capable of being
> right there with the top 2 teams, despite not having
> anybody named Goucher or Culpepper on the roster.
> On a side note, if you want insight on the training
> and focus and day to day running of CU's last trophy
> squad (1998) check out Chris Lear's book "Running
> With The Buffaloes". Lear is a good friend, and I'm
> a big fan of the program, so I like it, but I'm
> selling out of copies here and everybody is inspired
> by the read.
>
> 4. WISCONSIN- Unheralded runners-up last year,
> Wisco loses a lot of its bite as Downin and
> Schoenfelder (4th and 6th) depart. The 4th spot is
> very much there for the taking, so in respect of
> last year's showing, I'm giving the Badgers the nod
> here right now. A solid trio of Vanderhoef, Cordes,
> and Winkel returns and is bolstered by ASU transfer
> Isiah Festa and a Stanford-esque recruiting haul.
> Chances are that at least one of the 3 sub-9 guys
> (Spiker, Tegenkamp, and Keller) will produce for
> Coach Schoemaker right away, and that make this a
> pretty darned good team again, and the favorites in
> the Big Ten and Great Lakes.
>
> 5. IONA- The Gaels...Westchester County's finest.
> Though I haven't been up to the Rockefeller Estate
> to spot this team as I did last year, I'm sure they
> are highly motivated and excited to bang out there
> long runs in the land of Khannouchi. Returning your
> top 5 from a 9th place team will do that, and last
> year Iona was only 32 points outside of 6th. Many
> of the teams ahead of them will be shadows of their
> former selves, while Iona looks to be the same, but
> hopefully fitter and wiser. Mulvey (23rd), Sanchez
> (49th) and Riley (51st) lead the charge towards the
> podium.
>
> 6. GEORGETOWN- Perhaps the best Hoyas team since
> the 94 version that went into Fayetteville nationals
> ranked #1. 11th last year, but only 48 points out
> of 6th, G'town counters in 2000 with 6 of its top 7
> returning, losing only #2 scorer at nationals Justin
> McCarthy. The returning class is a talented one,
> all blue chippers, all coming to fruition now with
> Smith, Rodriguez, Zielinski, Daniels and Smits.
> That said, the factor that will allow G'town to
> battle for a trophy is Franklyn Sanchez. People may
> forget how good this guy really is, but they will
> remember soon. 8:48 indoors in high school...now
> he's a year older, and although he raced sparingly,
> he probably improved over the past year in prep
> school, as evidenced by the Junior X-C Trials win.
> Sanchez will join the likes of Torres, Sage, Powell,
> Luchini, as big time young American near the top of
> the NCAA heap.
>
> 7. NC State- It may be difficult for Coach
> Geiger's men to swing another trophy, but they will
> be in the mix. Chris Dugan (44th) will lead the
> charge, and could provide the points swing to decide
> things in a tight team battle. 30th-50th probably
> isn't good enough to lift the Wolfpack to the top 4.
> However 10th to 20th is good enough, and Dugan
> himself is good enough to run up there. Fitzula and
> unheralded Dave Patterson return with the rest of
> the crew made up of solid, unknown types that would
> not have been as far down the depth chart at many
> other schools. NCSU's recruiting haul was good
> enough to potentially provide a serviceable scorer
> or two.
>
> 8. OREGON- Martin Smith's Ducks come back with 4
> of the top 6, featuring Jason Hartmann (37th as a
> frosh), the high school teammate of Dathan
> Ritzenhein (want to talk about a guy who will have
> an impact immediately next year?). They will be
> solid and pretty deep after that. Don't
> underestimate an unspectacular Ducks 3rd or 4th man,
> as just a few years ago Nick Rogers was just that.
> The fate of UO lies largely in the feet of the
> frosh, mainly Eric Logsdon who nearly broke Pre's
> state high school 3k record. Talk about a
> reputation to live up to...he's joined by NY's
> Emery, and fellow Oregonians Noel Paulson and Kyle
> Robinson. Several of them will probably take
> prominent roles right away this fall.
>
> 9. WILLIAM and MARY- They get better each year, no
> matter what since Andy Gerard has been in town.
> They were "only" 13th last year, but within striking
> distance of several other spots. The heavy hitter,
> Matt Lane, is gone, but the rest of the top 7 is
> back, and that is the kind of situation where in a
> good program, often somebody or several somebody's
> steps up to be the next heavy hitter. Manner leads
> the charge, and W&M could be good enough to give NC
> State fits at the regional meet again this year.
>
> 10. MICHIGAN- Ron Warhurst's team rose to the
> occassion again at nationals last year, earning a
> 5th place spot, however top returner Mike Wisniewski
> (32nd) will redshirt, leaving a capable Mark Pilja
> at the front. UM will be young, but solid this
> year, with another great recruiting class
> highlighted by Brian Turner and Mason Ward. Look
> out for them in 2001 with Wisniewski back and the
> possibly of landing a pretty promising in-state
> product.
>
> 11. NOTRE DAME- Really in the same boat as Michigan
> this year, the Irish redshirt Ryan Shay, who would
> have been an individual threat , but will just wait
> until next year for that. They were 8th last year,
> and still bring back Luke Watson (58th) and
> Striowski. ND is always a consistent bet to land
> somewhere in the top 15, and with a guy as good as
> Shay, next year could be exceptional.
>
> 12. MINNESOTA- No big names, but an improving,
> steady presence on the national scene since
> Plasencia took over. They have 4 back from last
> year and were 15th then, so I like the Gophers to be
> one of the top 3 in the Big 10, and then shift out
> west a bit to take the Midwest Region title again.
>
> 13. NORTHERN ARIZONA- Another stalwart in the top
> 15 lately, NAU was 12th last year and has its 3
> through 7 back in tact, including Steve Osaduik who
> had an off day at nationals, not as off of a day as
> he had when he was a Seton Hall frosh and fell off
> on a 13 mile run behind Anne Marie Lauck and Carol
> Howe...but off nonetheless. They will have to
> battle several other teams for the 2nd spot behind
> Colorado, but should they falter they usually rack
> up a good regular season record for at-large points.
>
>
> 14. ALABAMA- All eyes will now turn to David Kimani
> and Chris Mutai in Tuscaloosa, now that the
> Pre-Season #3 football team has been embarassed and
> Tim Broe is out of town. 'Bama returns its 2-3-4
> from last year when they were 23rd at the big meet,
> but scoring 1 with Kimani will be a big help, and if
> he and Mutai feed off of each other, that 1-2 will
> vault the Tide up a ways in the standings especially
> in the bigger 31 team meet.
>
> 15. BYU- An uncharacteristic 30th place disaster
> hit them last year. They return 4 from that
> talented and mature group, including Hendengren and
> add Josh Rohatinsky, and who knows who else from a
> mission. Ed Eyestone steps in as coach, and will
> find time to educate and inspire in between Runner's
> World articles, I'm sure. Again, it will be a
> dogfight with NAU, SUU, and Weber to figure out the
> 2-6 spots in the Mountain Region, but all teams
> appear to deserve a spot.
>
> 16. PROVIDENCE- This is a team to watch out for, as
> their ranking could skyrocket through the fall.
> They start here because of last year's so-so 19th,
> but they return a national title threat in Keith
> Kelly (9th) as well as the entire rest of their top
> 7. The Friars must prove consistency first, though.
> They have the makings of at top 10 team, as they do
> almost every year.
>
> 17. SOUTHERN UTAH- Who? They won the region last
> year, remember, and they return 4 of 5. They did
> not run great to get 21st in Bloomington, but that
> could be first time jitters. This program has been
> pretty close for a while, and striving to get
> noticed, now they will prove it was not a flash in
> the proverbial pan.
>
> 18. OKLAHOMA STATE- Jersey guy Dick Weis loses Chuck
> Sloan, but retains his next 5 from a 16th place
> squad. This is a team to watch, they could be much
> better than this ranking if they added someone.
>
> 19. PRINCETON- Jersey guys, well at least some of
> them, start where they finished last year. A great
> recruiting class might not be enough to help 2nd
> returner Paul Morrison (8th) make a big dent with
> this team. They return their 4-5-6 guys, and at
> least figure to be the class of the Ivy and Heps.
> They should travel somewhere and run some out of
> region teams, as Villanova is good enough to knock
> them out of an auto.
>
> 20. ARIZONA- 10th with the top 3 back, and 5th back,
> why the drop to 20th? I dunno, but its pretty tight
> in these spots, and this just how it works out for
> now. On paper, they could be every bit as good as
> Oregon.
>
> 21. VILLANOVA- The top 2 are gone, the next 4 are
> back, all were young, now not as young. Canadian
> Haden steps in as a big newcomer, and Jersey soph
> Fasulo could contribute, as well. 17th is not out
> of reach again, nor is Princeton. Georgetown is,
> most likely.
>
> 22. WEBER STATE- They'll make it again, and run
> solid.
>
> 23. SOUTH FLORIDA- Move them up a few spots from
> 25th, they have everybody back, and are establishing
> a pretty good program. Now is the year for them to
> really show something and prove me wrong about the
> region.
>
> 24. OHIO STATE- My sleeper team in the Great Lakes
> and Big 10, they have been nearing closer each year
> under Gary, now is the year.
>
> 25. DUKE- Missed last year, after going for the
> first time in my memory in 1998, they should beat
> out JMU, Clemson, and Wake for the 3rd place spot in
> the Southeast.
>
> 26. CAL POLY SLO- Another program that is
> legitimate, maybe not a threat to Stanford and
> Oregon just yet, but definitely deserving another
> trip to nationals.
>
> 27. RICE- 5 out of the top 6 are back from last
> year's DFL team...wait is that good or bad?
>
> 28. WASHINGTON- Come on Dawgs...they Huskies have
> not made it to NCAA's on the men's side since I was
> there...and UDub was my first of three division I
> institutions of higher learning. Its about time, if
> Bazzi is back at least. Heck, even the mens hoops
> team has been to the tourney since the mens x-c team
> made it. We were 8th, by the way, in 1993 at
> Lehigh...speaking of which, have the damn race
> somewhere near a place where people live. Anyway,
> another at-large for the region.
>
> 29. MISSOURI- They have been there the past few
> years, should be 3rd in the Midwest, which should be
> good enough to go back. They were 28th last year,
> lost their #1, so now they are 29th.
>
> 30. TENNESSEE- An at-large out of the South? Sure,
> why not. No Southern Miss to deal with this year.
> The adidas thing gives them a boost.
>
> 31. PORTLAND- My alma mater...Grape Crush? Had
> they gotten on board with adidas, top 20 for sure.
> I have to keep the Pilots in here even with the
> redshirting of their top 2 (Driscoll and Rolin) out
> of loyalty, nostalgia, posterity, and
> sentimentality. Who else would I put in here,
> Texas????
>
>
> Others That May Be There:
> NOT TEXAS!, Dartmouth, Brown, Army, LaSalle, JMU,
> Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida, Central Michigan,
> Butler, Texas A&M, Drake, Iowa, Iowa State, Colorado
> State, Arizona State, and definitely NOT TEXAS.
>
>
>
> This is getting pretty long, and I do not wish
> to tempt fate and risk losing it, so I will not go
> too much farther or too detailed into the individual
> scene, but I'll just rattle off my top few or so and
> then send it in:
>
> 1. Kimani- Alabama (gotta pick the champ)
> 2. Torres- Colorado (gotta like the Buff)
> 3. Karie- Arkansas (just a hunch)
> 4. Riley- Stanford
> 5. Luchini- Stanford (just another hunch)
> 6. Mutai- Alabama (will run side by side with his
> teammate for 4+ miles)
> 7. Karanu- Arkansas
> 8. Sanchez- Georgetown
> 9. Morrison- Princeton
> 10. Kelly- Providence
> 11. Watson- Notre Dame
> 12. Link- Arkansas
> 13. Sage- Stanford
> 14. Friedeberg- Colorado
> 15. Powell- Stanford
> 16. Slattery- Colorado
> 17. Asmerom- Cal
> 18. Dugan- NC State
> 19. Hartmann- Oregon
> 20. Blondeau- Colorado
> 21. Mulvey- Iona
> 22. Vanderhoof- Wisconsin
> 23. Berryhill- Colorado State
> 24. Mutuse- Eastern Kentucky
> 25. Rodriguez- Georgetown
> 26. Not Somebody from Texas!
>
>
> That is all, I am Grote and that was my Poll.
>
> Grote
> adiRP
> Bedminster, New Jersey
>


Nostradamus posted on 8/10 12:06 pm

Great Lakes - Inside Scoop

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Inside Scoop for the Great Lakes

UW loses Downin and Schoenfelder and word is that Shoe will redshirt all of his freshmen, as is the Badger custom. Festa will not be in Madison in the fall (as hoped), and only Cordes and Vanderhoof are legit returners. They are literally one stress fracture from having to run a true frosh, which is heresy in Badgerland. Even then, Shoe is unproven with non-Martin Smith athletes.

Michigan loses Cantin and Lawrence, and Wisnewski has to crack at some point(?). Solid recruiting class, but it will take the miler oriented group a while to take Ronnie W's mega miles. Even then, very disappointing outdoor campaign for the big yellow M's. You heard it here first - if the frosh don't take well, look for them to redshirt Mike W and bail on the season.

ND will redshirt Shay. The only way they make it is by drilling their 50+ member team and seeing if 4 more guys can meet the challenge and run with Watson. Four out of 50 will survive, but how good will they be by then? Echoes of 98.

Word is Mich St may lose their top frosh last year to a transfer. The dream team of baker, Jurkvich, Schell, etc is a fading memory. Who do they really have? I don't see Padgett and Clary as some sort of saviors.

Ohio St will be ready as last year at districts, but solely due to the fire of their coach. Don't expect a whole lot until then. They have one stud, an 800-1500m guy trying to run longer, and really that's it. They don't have the depth to find three more. The only way they make it is if a) Ian wins, b) RM pulls one out of his arse, c) they get a legit transfer tomorrow, d) Coach G gives a pre-game speech that rivals Lombardi, and lightning strikes twice.

Butler will be there with Justin Young and his band of translators (so that he can communicate with the rest of his team). Word is one or two of their probables aren't getting on the plane (it was the Concorde crash that scared them). So will they have the depth?

Eastern's big new Kenyan is probably not going to show. But three more may pop in his place.

Indiana has the most depth of anybody, but no studs to carry them losing Chorney. A ton of 9:15 2milers is a good start, but you need guys up front to make the show, not a pack in the middle. Where's Bakken when the good doctor needs him?

Miami will never match the fluke of '98.

Purdue. Wait, let me stop laughing. Ditto for Western.

What does this all mean?

The most wide open Districts in memory - with CMU as a legit favorite? What is this district coming to?


Quirp posted on 8/14 10:10 pm

D-1 Predictions(with many darkhorses)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 20 Individuals
1.Kimani, So. Ala(is he transferring?)
2.Shay, Notre Dame
3.Kelly, Providence
4.Jennings, Stanford
5.Jorge Torres, Colorado
6.Link, Arkansas
7.Karanu, Arkansas
8.Riley, Stanford
9.Morrison, Princeton
10.Asmerom, California
11.Cordes, WI
12.Young, Butler
13.Wisniewski, Michigan
14.Berryhill, Co. State
15.Franklyn Sanchez, G'Town
16.Bizuneh, Ariz State
17.Mulvey, Iona
18.Mutai, Alabama
19.Karie, Arkansas
20.Murley, Stanford
Top 10 Teams
1.Arkansas
2.Stanford
3.Colorado
4.Wisconsin
5.Arizona 
6.Georgetown
7.NC State
8.Iona
9.Michigan
10.Butler 


Mid Atlantic posted on 8/16 12:46 pm

Mid Atlantic Region

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Based on last year and Transfers

Georgetown .....Even without Savoth and Sanchez, the are the team to beat!
Vilanova........... Blinko to replace Tantino(maybe loose a few spots but not much)
Parlipiano will replace Smith
Shower's and Reese are back!
Hayden to replace Parlipiano
Along with good back up

Penn State Return there whole team. This is a very good Penn State Team. I did not think they ran well at regionals last year and after an improved track season they will be very tough. Jim Carney from Millersville ran 29.15 @ Penn relay's.. They are Very Good

Princeton Morrison. After Morrison they are not proven. With 35 Athletes on the team with Highschool credentials better than any other teams top 7 they had better find back up.

West Virginia A solid 1-2 punch. The group after this improved a lot in track so should find enough to be in the hunt.

St Francis Return The whole team. After eliminating the graduated athletes, St. Francis has 3 in the top 25. Other returners like our very own, CATTS, had a very good track season and will be looked upon for solid a solid race to solidify a very solid group.

La Salle They are starting to put things together. They will fight Bucknell for this spot. Bucknell has better returners but La Salle will be better Coached.

Navy loose some key athletes at the front but are of course very discelened. They will alway's reload at Navy.

Seton Hall A few transfers and a good coach. He has been around winners and will pound this into his runners.

Region meets are weird. you really dont need much to finish fairly high.

Has a shot at Nationals : Georgetown, Villanova, Penn State, Princeton, West Virginia

Others are thinking about it and MUST run well at Pre Nationals!!!!! Or MICHIGAN


  
John Molvar posted on 8/19 9:23 am 
NCAA Recruits Update  

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NCAA XC Recruits Update

I took a look at the Men’s NCAA Division I results from last year and looked at who is coming back and who got the best recruits and I will summarize my findings. Note that I got the recruiting information from the excellent Dystat Site. It has a list of all college recruits in all events and is an excellent resource. I will address the teams in the order of finish at last year’s championship. Overall, the most striking fact it that at least 5 of last year’s top 7 teams will be stronger this year which will make the season quite exciting.

Arkansas won big last year but returns only 3 of their top 7 and only secured one top tier American recruit in Fernando Cabada. (see below for a list of the top recruits and where they are going). However, Arkansas always recruits foreigners and several of their 8 through 15 runners are returning and likely to step up. They will be one of the favorites but not the favorite. Wisconsin returns only 2 of their top 7 but snared 3 of the best high school distance prospects in the country with Josh “14 mile per week” Spiker, Matt Tegenkamp and Tim Keller. All 3 ran sub 9 last Spring. Despite being hurt by graduation more than any top team, they could retain a top 5 finish. However, they have a long history of redshirting all freshmen.If that happens they won't be a top 5 contender and will be in rebuilding mode. With Chris Duganredshirting, NC State only returns 1 of their top 7. They bring in 5 runners.

Stanford had the misfortune of injuries and an off day for many of their runners last year. This year the opposition is going to face an avalanche of quality runners. For starters, they return 6 of their top 7. Secondly, 3 of those 6 had very bad races last year. Thirdly they had a great recruiting year, bringing in 4 top runners including the 2 highest placing seniors at last year’s Footlocker Final (Don Sage and Ian Dobson). Fourthly, they have 4 runners returning from last year who did not run at the nationals, but turned in tremendous times on the track (Powell-3:40, Luchini-28:54 and Hill 14:15). Lastly, they return 2 proven runners (Robinson-14:05 and Hawkins-29:30) from 2 year Mormon sabbaticals. John Stevens has been injured most of his college career. If he could get healthy , he could be a factor also. All together, that is 16 very talented runners fighting for 7 spots. Stanford could lose 8 of these guys to injury and still come into the NCAAs as favorite. They will be very tough to beat.

Michigan looks to be very strong. They return 5 of the top 7, but recruited 4 excellent middle distance runners including Brian Turner and Mason Ward who have also run well as harriers. This does not include the 1 or 2 top flight Canadian runners that they typically recruit. Michigan could remain in the top 5. When Martin Smith took over at Oregon his goal was to build a team capable of competing for the title. He is making good progress. He was 6th in his first year, returns 4 or his top 7 and had a great recruiting year, getting 5 top distance men. Colorado had been a top 5 team since Mark Wetmore took over until his team suffered a uncharacteristic meltdown at last’s year meet. Expect them to be back with a vengeance. Five of the top 7 are back and although they lagged their chief rivals in the recruiting wars, by only getting 2 guys, Wetmore has proven he can create great teams out of less well known runners.

Notre Dame returns only 3 of their top 7 and is only bringing in one top recruit. Also they may redshirt top runner Ryan Shay. If that happens they will be hard pressed to stay in the top 10 this year and will be rebuilding. Iona will be a team to watch. They recruited no top American runners, but they return 6 of their top 7 and they heavily recruit in Ireland and will have at least one new lad again this year. Arizona returns 4 of their top 7 but was shut out on the recruiting front. They will have their work cut out for them if they are to return to the NCAAs.

Georgetown brings back 5 of the top 7 and brings in two recruits including Frank Sanchez who will have an immediate impact. They have a shot at being a top 10 team this year. Northern Arizona returns 5 or their top 7 and has 2 recruits coming in. William & Mary was shut out of the recruiting wars but returns 6 of their top 7. They may be able to break into the top 10. Arizona State will be moving up into the top 10. They return 6 of their top 7 and are bringing in 2 of the best prospects in the nation (Ryan Bousquet and Juan Reyes). Minnesota will find things tough this year. They return 4 but got no name recruits. On the flip side coach Steve Placencia has already shown he doesn’t need name recruits. Oklahoma state could be in the top 20 again. They have no American recruits, but return 6 and usually the bring in some foreigners.

The situation at Villanova appears to be good. They return 5 and they bring in 3 good runners. Weber State will have trouble returning to the NCAAs. They return only 4 and got no name recruits. The positive is that it is one of those programs that seems to do well without the name runners. Providence is a team on the rise. While they have no American recruits, they recruit heavily in the British Isles and they return at least their top 8 from last year. Princeton is also looking to move up. They return 5 and had a blowout recruiting year with 5 blue chippers coming in including Tristnan Colangelo and York #2 man Pete Cioni. South Utah is a team looking to return to the big dance with 5 coming back and one new recruit. Texas A&M is facing a huge uphill battle. Only 3 return and they have no top recruits. Alabama gained the transfer of defending champion Dave Kimani and they have 4 runners coming back. It will be a foreigner dominated team.

Dartmouth returns 4 and had an pretty good recruiting year bringing in 3 top guys. South Florida has 5 back, but no replacements. Portland is headed back into the top 20 with 6 runners returning and 2 good recruits. James Madison may hold it own with 4 back and 2 newcomers. Missouri has 5 back but couldn’t obtain any top recruits. Cal Poly is looking to crack the top 20 with 6 returnees and one recruit. New coach Ed Eyestone at Brigham Young has 4 returnees and 3 recruits including one of the best prospects in the country Josh Rohantinsky, if he can stay healthy. Rice may surprise some people with 6 coming back and a new recruit.

Among teams that did not make the final last year, several had good recruiting seasons and are looking to get back into the game including Central Michigan, Brown, Duke and Michigan State. Butler may have several top foreigners coming in to join American Justin Young. Others that have not been in the game in recent memory have upgraded significantly including Clemson, Columbia, Kentucky Seton Hall and Virginia. I am certain I left out some deserving runners and teams who will make an impact. To those, I say use this as extra incentive. Best of luck to all.

Top Teams Recruits

Arkansas - Fernando Cabada - CA
Wisconsin - Matt Tegenkamp - MO
Wisconsin - Josh Spiker - CA
Wisconsin - Tim Keller - IL
N. Carolina State - Ricky Brookshire - NC
N. Carolina State - Brian Geer - NC
N. Carolina State - Joe Iatauro - NY
N. Carolina State - John Huber - NY
N. Carolina State - Andy Smith - OH
Stanford - Evan Fox - CA
Stanford - Ian Dobson - OR
Stanford - Chris Emme - TX
Stanford - Donald Sage - IL
Michigan - Tom Greenless - MI
Michigan - Brian Turner - NE
Michigan - Mason Ward - OH
Michigan - John Hughes - MI
Oregon - Kyle Robinson - AL
Oregon - Aaron Emery - NY
Oregon - Kyle Robinson - OR
Oregon - Noel Paulson - OR
Oregon - Eric Logsdon - OR
Colorado - Jared Scott - CO
Colorado - John Severy - CO
Notre Dame - Brian Kerwin - NJ
Iona- Mark Smyth - Ireland 
Arizona- None
Georgetown - Franklyn Sanchez - MA
Georgetown - Brad Barker - NE
Northern Arizona - Travis Laird - CA
Northern Arizona - Tyler Williams - ID
William & Mary –None
Arizona State - Juan Reyes - AZ
Arizona State - Ryan Bousquet – CA
Minnesota – None
Oklahoma St – None
Villanova - Andrew Jackman - NH
Villanova - Jason Jabaut - NJ
Villanova – Ryan Haydan - Canada
Weber St – None
Providence – None
Princeton - Ryan Teising - IL
Princeton - Peter Cioni - IL
Princeton - Tristan Colangelo - MA
Princeton - Patrick Beattie - AK
Princeton - Jeff DiChiara - NJ
Southern Utah - Brock Call - UT
Texas A&M - None
Alabama – None
Dartmouth - Colin Ingram - NH
Dartmouth - J. Shoemaker - MA
Dartmouth - Chris Lanese - CA
Portland - Matt Harriman - WA
Portland - Nick Schuetze - OR
James Madison - David Aleman - VA
James Madison - Joe Wiegner – PA
Cal Poly SLO - Justin Neuroth - CA
Brigham Young - Josh Rohatinsky - UT
Brigham Young - Andrew Bybee - UT
Brigham Young – Jeff Bullock - UT
Rice - Daniel Pessing - TX

Other top Recruits

Central Michigan - Kevin Sule - MI
Central Michigan - Jake Flynn - MI
Brown - Brendan O'Keefe - ME
Brown - Matt Emond - MA
Brown - Mike DeCoste - MA
Duke - Chris Williams - KS
Duke - Ren Provey - CT
Michigan State - Kevin Clary - MT
Michigan State - Steve Padgett - OH
Indiana - Kurtis George - IN
Clemson - David Adams - SC
Clemson - Derrick Wyatt - SC
Clemson - Mike Barton - ME
Clemson - Ryan Fenton - ME
Illinois - Adam Palumbo - IL 
Columbia - Hendrick Gerritts - WY
Columbia - Matt Kalish - NH
Columbia - Dale Fox - WA
Columbia - Steve Sundell - ND
Florida - Moises Joseph - FL
Florida - Cory Presnick - FL
Boston University - Danny Coval – PA
Kentucky - James Doaty - KY
Kentucky - Justin Amason - IL
Kentucky - David Freeman - FL
Lasalle - Kevin Carroll - PA
LaSalle - Bryan Skelly - NJ
Miami OH - Jerry Claunch - OH
Boston College - Byron Gartrell - MA
Penn State - Scott Munro - PA
Utah State - Jesse Hodges - CA
Utah - Tyceson Low - UT
Utah - Parker Low - UT
Seton Hall - Julio German - NY
Seton Hall - Matt Elmuccio - NJ
Seton Hall - Tyler Cardinal - CT
Virginia - Andy Filachek - NJ
Virginia - Walton Kingsbery - NJ
Wake Forest - Jarrett Van Tine - MD
Wake Forest - David Barrett - NH
Yale - Peter Furia - WA
Yale - Sam Ryerson - MA
Yale - Robert Dwyer Jr. - CT
Yale - Chris Andrew – CT

Projected Top Individuals

1 Jonathan Riley Stanford 
2 David Kimani Alabama
3 Keith Kelly Providence 
4 Ryan Shay Notre Dame (may redshirt)
5 Jorge Torres Colorado 
6 James Karanu Arkansas 
7 Louis Luchini Stanford
8 Thomas Murley Stanford 
9 Murray Link Arkansas 
10 Bolota Asmerom, California
11 Fasil Bizunch Arizona State 
12 Paul Morrison Princeton 
13 Sharif Karie Arkansas 
14 Frank Sanchez Georgetown
15 Christopher Mutai Alabama 
16 Vinny Mulvey Iona 
17 Corey Smith Georgetown 
18 Kenneth Svendsen UNC-Charlotte 
19 Justin Young Butler 
20 Don Sage Stanford
21 James Mutuse Eastern Kentucky 
22 Michael Wisniewski Michigan 
23 Bryan Berryhill Colorado State 
24 Jason Hartmann Oregon 
25 Jason Schoenfeld Weber St 
26 Steve Slattery Colorado 
27 Mike Friedberg Colorado 
28 Ryan Haden Villanova
29 Andy Powell Stanford
30 Gabe Jennings Stanford (may not run)
31 Josh Spiker Wisconsin (may redshirt)
32 Bob Thiele, Virginia
33 Curtis Moore, South Utah

John Molvar

johnmolvar@yahoomail.com
 

thinking man posted on 10/16 5:16 pm

At-Large Analysis

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Here is how I see the At-large births and qualifying at this point in the season.

Great Lakes They should be able to get 5 teams in: Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Michigan State, Indiana and Eastern Michigan. That's right the great program of Michigan is omitted from my list. They haven't beaten anyone and have been beaten by a whole bunch. Even though they won't make it I predict that they will beat at least one of the first five I mentioned. Michigan will be the blocker.

Midwest As of now I only see two teams that will get in from this region. Oklahoma State and Nebraska. If any of the others get in as auto qualifiers then they will give a lot of teams a lot of points because they have been beaten. This region does always seem to find a way to get more than just 2 in though.

South Central I believe that they will get 2 teams in. I am now going to have to go with Texas and Ark. Tulane is a third possibility. But They should only get two in.

Mountain This is the strongest region in the nation right now, according to pre-nationals anyway. Colorado, BYU, NAU, Colorado State and Weber all have enough points to get in the meet. Utah and Air force may have enough to get in. Anyway, 5 from the mountain region go to Iowa.

Northeast Right now it looks like there will only be 2 from this region. Providence and Iona. This is very unusual for this region.

Mid-Atlantic Georgetown, Princeton, Penn State, and Villanova will all be going from this region. I am curious if Paul short teams from Villanova and Georgetown were B teams or not. They have the ability to give points to undeserving teams.

South East North Carolina State, William & Mary and Duke will all come out of this region.

South Two teams from this region will be going. I don't know which ones but it is important for the rest of the country because this year this region will be giving a lot of at-large points out.

West Stanford, Arizona, Arizona State, and Oregon will be going out of this region. This is as strong as the great Lakes region. Washington could be a blocker for UCSB and PORTLAND. Who may have earned enough points at Pre-nats to go.

For those of you that were counting there are still 3 at-large positions that I did not fill I only mentioned 28 teams. Those spots could be filled by: Air Force, Utah, USCB, Wake Forest, any of about 4 teams from the Northast or Midwest.

There is still conferences left to run where more points could be scored. And lets remember that there is always 1 or 2 teams that come out of nowhere to be an auto-qualifier. Teams with more points than they know what to do with that get blocked out.Let's not forget that injuries, sickness, hangovers etc. can effect races and we are still a month away from Regions. Most Teams are still progressing so stay tuned.

Site hosted by Angelfire.com: Build your free website today!