A WORLD IN TROUBLE |
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INTRODUCTION
The site A World in Trouble ranks all the independent countries according to
the perception of the risk of a coup or a conflict.
This site doesn't consider if a country is democratic or not does it consider any economic
situation,just the risk of overthrowing the chief of the state or entering into a conflict
such as civil war,guerrilla action or war with other country.
The site considers a risk within the immediate future, for example 2-3 years.
In some countries there is a current risk of a coup or an outbreak of a conflict.
In others there are particular situations which can lead toward this situation
in the near future.
Since it is not realistic to make a forecast of a very long term situation, I think
it is logical and appropriate to consider a short period of 2-3 years.
Categories of risk:NONE,VERY LOW,LOW,MEDIUM,HIGH
Last update: 31/12/20
- Swaziland has been renamed Eswatini.Macedonia has been renamed North Macedonia.
- Belarus: The people will keep protesting and seeking the outs of dictator Lukashenko who will rely on Russia military help.
- Thailand:There might be contrast within the army during the increasing popular protests
- Central African Republic:Risk of coup are is again very high
COUNTRY RISK OF COUP RISK OF CONFLICTS
AFGHANISTAN MEDIUM CIVIL WAR
ALBANIA LOW MEDIUM
ALGERIA HIGH MEDIUM
ANDORRA NONE NONE
ANGOLA LOW MEDIUM
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA VERY LOW VERY LOW
ARGENTINA LOW LOW
ARMENIA MEDIUM MEDIUM
AUSTRALIA NONE NONE
AUSTRIA NONE NONE
AZERBAIJAN LOW MEDIUM
BAHAMAS NONE NONE
BAHRAIN MEDIUM HIGH
BANGLADESH MEDIUM MEDIUM
BARBADOS NONE NONE
BELARUS HIGH HIGH
BELGIUM NONE NONE
BELIZE VERY LOW LOW
BENIN MEDIUM MEDIUM
BHUTAN VERY LOW LOW
BOLIVIA HIGH HIGH
BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA VERY LOW MEDIUM
BOTSWANA VERY LOW VERY LOW
BRAZIL LOW LOW
BRUNEI VERY LOW VERY LOW
BULGARIA VERY LOW LOW
BURKINA FASO HIGH HIGH
BURUNDI HIGH HIGH
CAMBODIA MEDIUM MEDIUM
CAMEROON MEDIUM HIGH
CANADA NONE NONE
CAPE VERDE VERY LOW NONE
CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC HIGH CIVIL WAR
CHAD HIGH HIGH
CHILE LOW HIGH
CHINA NONE LOW
COLOMBIA VERY LOW GUERRILLA
COMOROS HIGH MEDIUM
CONGO BRAZZAVILLE MEDIUM MEDIUM
CONGO KINSHASA HIGH GUERRILLA
COSTA RICA NONE LOW
COTE D'IVOIRE MEDIUM HIGH
CROATIA VERY LOW VERY LOW
CUBA LOW LOW
CYPRUS NONE VERY LOW
CZECH REPUBLIC NONE NONE
DENMARK NONE NONE
DJIBOUTI LOW GUERRILLA
DOMINICA VERY LOW VERY LOW
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC VERY LOW VERY LOW
ECUADOR HIGH HIGH
EGYPT MEDIUM HIGH
EL SALVADOR LOW LOW
EQUATORIAL GUINEA MEDIUM LOW
ERITREA HIGH MEDIUM
ESTONIA NONE VERY LOW
ESWATINI LOW MEDIUM
ETHIOPIA HIGH MEDIUM
FIJI LOW LOW
FINLAND NONE NONE
FRANCE NONE VERY LOW
GABON MEDIUM HIGH
GAMBIA HIGH MEDIUM
GEORGIA MEDIUM MEDIUM
GERMANY NONE NONE
GHANA MEDIUM LOW
GREECE LOW LOW
GRENADA VERY LOW VERY LOW
GUATEMALA LOW MEDIUM
GUINEA HIGH HIGH
GUINEA BISSAU HIGH MEDIUM
GUYANA LOW LOW
HAITI HIGH HIGH
HONDURAS LOW MEDIUM
HUNGARY VERY LOW LOW
ICELAND NONE NONE
INDIA VERY LOW GUERRILLA
INDONESIA LOW GUERRILLA
IRAN MEDIUM MEDIUM
IRAQ HIGH CIVIL WAR
IRELAND NONE NONE
ISRAEL NONE TERRORISM
ITALY NONE VERY LOW
JAMAICA NONE LOW
JAPAN NONE LOW
JORDAN LOW MEDIUM
KAZAKHSTAN LOW MEDIUM
KENYA LOW MEDIUM
KIRIBATI VERY LOW VERY LOW
KUWAIT LOW MEDIUM
KYRGYZSTAN MEDIUM MEDIUM
LAOS VERY LOW GUERRILLA
LATVIA VERY LOW VERY LOW
LEBANON MEDIUM GUERRILLA
LESOTHO HIGH MEDIUM
LIBERIA MEDIUM MEDIUM
LIBYA HIGH CIVIL WAR
LIECHTENSTEIN NONE NONE
LITHUANIA VERY LOW VERY LOW
LUXEMBOURG NONE NONE
MADAGASCAR HIGH HIGH
MALAWI MEDIUM MEDIUM
MALAYSIA LOW LOW
MALDIVES HIGH MEDIUM
MALI HIGH GUERRILLA
MALTA NONE NONE
MARSHALL ISLANDS VERY LOW VERY LOW
MAURITANIA HIGH HIGH
MAURITIUS VERY LOW VERY LOW
MEXICO LOW LOW
MICRONESIA VERY LOW VERY LOW
MOLDOVA MEDIUM MEDIUM
MONACO NONE NONE
MONGOLIA LOW LOW
MONTENEGRO MEDIUM LOW
MOROCCO VERY LOW MEDIUM
MOZAMBIQUE MEDIUM GUERRILLA
MYANMAR HIGH GUERRILLA
NAMIBIA LOW LOW
NAURU VERY LOW VERY LOW
NEPAL MEDIUM MEDIUM
NETHERLANDS NONE NONE
NEW ZEALAND NONE NONE
NICARAGUA MEDIUM HIGH
NIGER HIGH GUERRILLA
NIGERIA HIGH GUERRILLA
NORTH KOREA MEDIUM LOW
NORTH MACEDONIA MEDIUM MEDIUM
NORWAY NONE NONE
OMAN HIGH HIGH
PAKISTAN HIGH GUERRILLA
PALAU VERY LOW NONE
PANAMA VERY LOW NONE
PAPUA NEW GUINEA MEDIUM MEDIUM
PARAGUAY LOW GUERRILLA
PERU MEDIUM GUERRILLA
PHILIPPINES MEDIUM GUERRILLA
POLAND LOW LOW
PORTUGAL NONE NONE
QATAR MEDIUM LOW
ROMANIA LOW LOW
RUSSIA LOW TERRORISM
RWANDA MEDIUM MEDIUM
SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS NONE VERY LOW
SAINT LUCIA NONE VERY LOW
SAINT VINCENT /GRENAD. VERY LOW VERY LOW
SAMOA VERY LOW LOW
SAN MARINO NONE NONE
SAO TOME AND PRINCIPE MEDIUM VERY LOW
SAUDI ARABIA MEDIUM MEDIUM
SENEGAL LOW GUERRILLA
SERBIA LOW MEDIUM
SEYCHELLES LOW VERY LOW
SIERRA LEONE MEDIUM MEDIUM
SINGAPORE NONE VERY LOW
SLOVAKIA VERY LOW VERY LOW
SLOVENIA NONE NONE
SOLOMON ISLANDS LOW MEDIUM
SOMALIA HIGH CIVIL WAR
SOUTH AFRICA VERY LOW LOW
SOUTH KOREA VERY LOW LOW
SOUTH SUDAN HIGH CIVIL WAR
SPAIN NONE LOW
SRI LANKA MEDIUM MEDIUM
SUDAN HIGH CIVIL WAR
SURINAME LOW LOW
SWEDEN NONE NONE
SWITZERLAND NONE NONE
SYRIA HIGH CIVIL WAR
TAIWAN VERY LOW LOW
TAJIKISTAN MEDIUM MEDIUM
TANZANIA HIGH MEDIUM
THAILAND HIGH GUERRILLA
TIMOR LESTE LOW LOW
TOGO MEDIUM HIGH
TONGA LOW MEDIUM
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO LOW LOW
TUNISIA MEDIUM MEDIUM
TURKEY MEDIUM TERRORISM
TURKMENISTAN MEDIUM MEDIUM
TUVALU VERY LOW VERY LOW
UGANDA MEDIUM GUERRILLA
UKRAINE MEDIUM CIVIL WAR
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES LOW LOW
UNITED KINGDOM NONE LOW
UNITED STATES NONE LOW
URUGUAY NONE NONE
UZBEKISTAN HIGH MEDIUM
VANUATU LOW MEDIUM
VATICAN CITY NONE NONE
VENEZUELA HIGH HIGH
VIETNAM NONE VERY LOW
YEMEN HIGH CIVIL WAR
ZAMBIA MEDIUM MEDIUM
ZIMBABWE MEDIUM HIGH