As much as we would like them to be at times, horses are not machines, they have cycles and bio-rythms just as we do. They build up to good form and fall out of form. To expect a horse to keep moving in a forward progression with every race is impractical, there must be a recessive race or races for him to be able to improve to a higher level of performance. It is this combonation of progressive and recessive races, that are different for every horse in the SIM, as it is for every horse in real-life. With this understanding, we can now begin to analize form.
If there weren't Form Cycles for every horse in the SIM, this game would be nothing more than a turkey shoot, a lottery, a casino type game and I would have no interest in playing it. If that were the case, the only question there would be is at what class level should I enter my horse and then let the ping-pong balls drop (like a lottery or a casino type game), to decide the fate of my horse in the race.
There are reasons why a horse wins a race, it is not random luck, although in rare circumstances it may turn out to be that way. By keeping a log of your horses Speed Figures and Speed Ratings, you will discover that your horses do have cycles in form. The recognition of Form Cycles, how to read and interprate them, gives you another "edge", when trying to discern if a horse is on the improve or decline in it's cycle. Don't be fooled, this is just like any other part of handicapping, you cannot base your whole decision on any one angle, just as your horse generally cannot win on one assumption alone by you. Do your homework and compile a number of different angles that you can use to put your horse in a winning situation. Class level, surface preferance, distance capabilities, running style; You should keep good notes pertaining to all these to learn more about your horse.
Understanding...., that is the key. To understand why your horse performed the way he did in a given race. Acknowledging and learning how to read and interperate Form Cycles is another way to understand what happened in a race. If I had to accept the fact that the ping-pong balls just didn't bounce my horses way today, I would have quit this game a long time ago. We have to gather the tools to interperate just what happened in a race so we can learn from it and apply what we have learned into deciding which race to enter our horses in next. The more we learn, the more favorable conditions we will have for our horses in their next race.
You've probably noticed about yourself that as soon as the results of the races for this week are up, you're already thinking about next week and a different set of horses to prepare for. The best way to do this is through history, the PP's (Past Performances) of the horse in question. The Speed Figures just don't happen hap-hazzardly, there is rhyme, there is reason. It's another way that your horse comunicates with you, telling about itself. This is why it is good to log your horses Speed Figures and Speed Ratings, they will start to form patterns, these patterns will probably start to repeat themselves in not so obvious forms. They could very well indicate your horses probable performance in an up coming race.
Don't let me disuade you of entering a horse for an up coming race because of indications leading to a recessive race.
Horses can and do win on a recessive race!
You probably have horses in your own stable that can attest to that. Many handicappers believe that in this years Kentucky Derby (1999) quite a few horses took a recessive race, along with the winner Charismatic. From the very fast and track record breaking performance that Charismatic displayed in the Lexington Stakes at Keenland, to one of the slowest final quarter times in recent history of the Kentucky Derby, that evidence alone supports this unlikely scenario. You were to assume that Charismatic beat the best of his generation on a bounce (recessive race). That gave reason to believe that if he could beat them on a recissive race, then he would also win the Preakness with a stronger race, and he did. The Belmont Stakes was a little different story. The Lemon Drop Kid, who lost the Kentucky Derby a few days before the actual running of the race with a bad post position draw (#18), was ready to take a step forward in the Belmont Stakes. The 1 1/2 mile distance was also more to his liking.
