There are times that even though your very glad for a win, especially when the win is a from a maiden, winning their first race. Now the horse can move on to it's next condition. We'll talk about a horse working it's way through it's conditions on a different page. Right now, I want to discuss the value of a horse running Wire to Wire. (w/w)
There is a world of difference of a w/w win, given by a horse with multiple wins than a w/w win by a first time starter (FTS) maiden running w/w. Hopefully, the veteran with four or five wins has shown his ability to run coming from off the pace (sitting within a few lenghts of the lead), putting his bid in for the lead, gaining it, then holding-off all the other late competition that is encountered in the stretch.
A horse that only runs with a need to lead style, will ofcourse have it's fair share of wins, but usually encounters distance limitations with this style of run.
When a maiden wins it's first race the w/w fashion, it can be a very tough read on it's true ability, especially if the win comes in a route race. (8.0 furlongs or longer). If you haven't taken time to decipher your own horses general ability, you will always have questions about where to place him. In what company, what class, and at what distance.
In Jed's first race he broke his maiden. As you can see, he won in w/w fashion. All good and well, but where do we go from here? He seems very well capable of handling this class level of track. (C1 = Northern California =class II) But how can I really judge his true ability? From this one race there is no way that you can. The final time of the race was not out of the ordinary, so you have to assume that he didn't set any fast internal fractions either. How fast is Jed? We don't really know.
After his first race Jed reported back to the barn, 'Sharp'. This meant that the first race had not taken too much of a physical toll on him and he was ready for another race, 'right back'.
I found a race in Florida, 3yo An1x 8.0f D (Dirt). Fortunately, this was one week before the travel costs were implemented. They are designed to reduce the coast-to-coast travel. Whew!!
I also had the chance to talk with Marky, (Florida Flops) a couple of nights before the race. He had picked Jed to win, ofcourse he put the question to me, "Will he win?". I actually didn't know. The only thing I felt sure about was that he would run with the pace. Jed would either handle the pace, be able to pull away from it and win, or be 'chewed-up' by the pace and end up in a third place finish. As I predicted the race.
The race had a short field, five entries. The main competition for Jed would probably come from an A.P. Indy horse that had won his last race, w/w at 6.5f D, in a good Final Time too. Usually a good w/w sprint win by a horse bred to run route distances, has a strong advantage over horse that have only raced route distances.
Jed ran tough, which is a good sign, he didn't fade in the stretch, he wasn't fatigued from a strong pace. A higher speed rating also, Jed showed great ability overall. Now I have a clearer picture of what his true attributes are.
When I take him back to Northern California, I will have positive factors working for Jed. In his next race, which will be no sooner than 3-4 weeks, I will look for a 3yo An1x, the distance can be shorter, (6.5f or 7.0f), or longer (8.5f). He showed enough speed in this race to help him at a shorter distance, and he is bred to run a lot further. Plus he will benefit from a class drop, from Florida (Class-I) to No. Cal., C-1 (Class II).
June 8, 1999
