An al Qaeda strategist issued a statement
over the weekend threatening that unless Canada withdraws its troops from
Afghanistan, it will face terrorist attacks similar to 9/11 or the Madrid and
London train bombings. Given al Qaeda's penchant for issuing threats, this
statement by itself does not indicate a particularly heightened level of risk
for Canadians, who have been in al Qaeda's crosshairs since the jihadist war
with the West began. But then, al Qaeda is not known for making one-off
threats.
In fact, the statement -- attributed to Hossam Abdul Raouf,
a member of al Qaeda's information and strategy committee -- marked the
second time in recent weeks that jihadists have singled out Canada for
special mention over the prominent role it is playing in Afghanistan. In
September, Ayman al-Zawahiri referred to the Canadian troops in Kandahar as
"second-rate Crusaders." Along with these remarks has come a separate warning
from the
Taliban threatening attacks on the soil of European countries that are part of the
NATO offensive in Afghanistan.
That is worth saying again, with
emphasis: The
Taliban -- a nationalist religious movement --
threatened to carry out attacks against civilians on foreign soil, blurring
the already fuzzy line between the Afghan group and its transnational
militant counterpart, al Qaeda.
The timing of all of these statements
centering on Afghanistan seems hardly accidental. In Canada, there is growing
sentiment that Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservative government is
putting the country at risk by aiding what is perceived as, in truth,
Washington's war. Canadian forces were deployed to Afghanistan under a
Liberal government, but the Harper administration extended the length of the
mission and, critics say, changed the mandate from peacekeeping to
insurgent-fighting. With recent news that Canada is preparing to send Leopard
tanks and CF-18 fighter jets into the fray, the country's military
capabilities will be fully represented in Afghanistan -- and there is no
fallback position if it then fails to defeat the Taliban. Voters also are
dissatisfied over the absence of milestones by which to chart progress or
determine an end point for the mission, and they are worried about the
possibility of
terrorist strikes on their own soil.
The general tenor of discussion is not
unlike that in the United States, where the tally of Iraq war casualties is
now a daily drumbeat underlying news coverage of the congressional election
campaigns. There are some crucial differences, however: Because Afghanistan
was a sanctuary for al Qaeda for years, the military invasion has never
excited the kinds of political controversies that surround the
Iraq war effort.
While the attention of Americans and much of the world
remains riveted on Iraq, the campaign in Afghanistan continues to grind away.
But the outcome of this campaign -- at least as much as that in Iraq, if not
more so -- has direct implications for the "global war on terrorism." As
such, it bears careful consideration.
A Shift in the Military
BalanceThe recent spate of threats -- and particularly those from
the Taliban -- is rooted, at least to some degree, in an increasingly
confident military footing.
For most of Afghan President Hamid
Karzai's time in power, the military situation has been primarily a
stalemate. The young government in Kabul was not strong enough to control
most of the country's territory, but was shored up by U.S.-led forces. The
coalition forces were not able to eliminate the Taliban, which continued to
move about with relative freedom in several southern provinces, but neither
was the Taliban strong enough to quash either the coalition forces or the
government in Kabul. The Karzai administration remained secure, though its
power was circumscribed, and the Taliban waged a small- to medium-scale
insurgency in the southern and eastern parts of the country.
This
balance began to shift early last year. The Taliban, assisted by al Qaeda,
began to engage in suicide bombings, surging to the north and east of their
southern strongholds (where the guerrilla offensive continued). In fact,
Taliban fighters were able to strike as far north as Kabul. This year, the
frequency and intensity of these attacks climbed: So far, there have been
some 80 suicide attacks, claiming more than 200 lives, compared to fewer than
20 in 2005. And in recent months, Western troops -- not just rival political
targets in Afghanistan -- have been targeted with both suicide bombings and
improvised explosive devices.
Perhaps the most noteworthy trend in
all of this is that Taliban forces appear to be retaking some of the
territory they lost following the U.S.-led invasion in 2001. They long have
shown an ability to move in and out of the five key provinces where their
strongholds are based -- Helmand, Kandahar, Uruzgan, Zabul and Paktika -- but
there now are signs that Taliban fighters could be, if not holding more
ground, at least shoring up their support in outlying areas.
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In
fact, the Afghanistan Independent Human Rights Commission in August went so
far as to claim the Taliban now have "psychological and de facto military
control of nearly half of Afghanistan," mapping out a line of control that
runs right through the country's middle. We do not believe the Taliban firmly
controls all of southern Afghanistan, but the line of control does conform
with the areas of Taliban activity we have observed in recent
months.
Sources of Strength
Several factors, both
foreign and domestic, paved the way for this surge of Taliban influence.
Let's consider these in turn:
- The U.S. military stance:
After forcing the Taliban from power, U.S. and coalition forces -- with too
few troops to adequately control a large and difficult terrain -- moved to
staging periodic anti-Taliban operations in southern and eastern Afghanistan.
These periodic disruptions, however, were followed by entrenchment, with the
Taliban resettling and digging in between offensives.
- The
military transition: Over the summer, U.S. forces began to surrender
responsibility for the southern and eastern provinces to other NATO states,
whose forces (even by their own admission) were ill-prepared to deal with the
fierce insurgency there. Meanwhile, there appears to have been an influx
of foreign jihadists, swelling the ranks of Taliban
supporters.
- The economic situation: Though the Karzai
administration has scored notable achievements -- crafting a new constitution
and providing a system of elections at all levels of government -- it has not
been able to improve the economy or the daily life of Afghan citizens. In a
country that never fully recovered from the massive devastation visited on it
by the Soviets, this would be an uphill battle for any government. One of the
key points of friction for the Karzai government, however, is that it has
cracked down on production of the main cash crop -- poppies -- leaving many
Afghans without alternative forms of income. The Taliban, of course, have
moved to capitalize on the discontent, reportedly offering money to new
recruits and offering social services, such as medical care, for supporters.
In some areas, the Taliban apparently have established parallel governments
that include district administrators, judges and other officials.
There are other divisions that the Taliban exploit: ethnic
ties and clan loyalties, for example, or the rift in cultural traditions. The
U.S.-aligned Karzai government is portrayed as chipping away at good,
old-fashioned religious and tribal mores. But the economic arena is where the
rubber truly meets the road: NATO's top commander in Afghanistan, British
Gen. David Richards, warned Oct. 8 that a majority of Afghans likely will
turn toward the Taliban if their lives do not tangibly improve during the
next six months.
Psychological Warfare
If Richards'
assessment is correct, it takes little imagination to envision what could
follow. Memories of the Soviet withdrawal and the painful civil war that
ensued spring quickly to mind. For coalition states in the West, the failure
of Operation Enduring Freedom (or "Operation Enduring Frustration," as one
U.S. senator recently dubbed it) would be a crushing political blow. Finally,
there is the distinct possibility that Afghanistan,
or at least significant portions of it, could again become a sanctuary for
transnational Islamist militants (and certainly, the top al Qaeda leaders now
believed to be sheltering in northwestern Pakistan wouldn't have far to
travel.)
This is not a foregone conclusion, of course, but the stage
does appear to be set for intensifying military conflict in Afghanistan as
the Taliban move to consolidate their gains. With the annual fighting season
drawing to a close, it is interesting that the jihadists have lately been
waging a psychological offensive, targeting not only the Canadian and other
NATO troops who patrol the roadways of Afghanistan, but also -- with a wave
of threats and warnings -- their home countries and communities. This could
be construed as an effort to maintain psychological momentum during the
winter, until frozen mountain passes thaw in the spring and military
offensives can begin again in earnest.
The recent statements of Mullah
Dadullah, a top Taliban military commander, are particularly intriguing in
this regard. In a Sept. 17 interview with ABC News, he claimed to have 500
suicide bombers under his command, willing to deploy at any time, and said
that 12,000 Taliban fighters were fighting under him in four southwestern
provinces. "We have no shortage of fighters," he said. "In fact, we have so
many of them that it is difficult to accommodate and arm and equip them. Some
of them have been waiting for a year or more for their turn to be sent to the
battlefield." Dadullah also was quoted as saying the Taliban is gathering
strength to launch bigger attacks in Afghan cities -- particularly Kabul --
next spring. And he expressed his opinion that the United States had cleverly
handed responsibility for Afghanistan's most dangerous provinces off to
British, Canadian and Dutch allies and withdrawn.
Now, in terrorism
analysis, we steer toward the view that those who have knowledge of specific
operations or targets don't talk, and that those who talk, don't know. It's a
rule of thumb that makes fairly specific operational statements like
Dadullah's quite interesting to consider. We are in no position to judge
whether his numerical estimates are on track -- though if they are, larger
military formations, which would create easier targets for NATO airstrikes,
likely would be avoided in favor of a higher tempo of small-unit guerrilla
engagements. His mention of Kabul, where foreign troops and the enemy
government are centered, divulges nothing that would not be otherwise be
reasonably assumed. The statement on the whole is designed to be a
psychological weapon, used to drive a wedge between NATO allies and stir up
dissent among the public in NATO states.
Together, the Taliban and al
Qaeda appear to be using the psychological weapon in a focused way,
attempting to break the back of political support for the war effort in
Canada and other U.S.-allied countries. The jihadists are very much aware of
the tone of Canadian politics and want to capitalize on the public's
misgivings about the war effort. For the Taliban and al Qaeda, fueling the
existing malaise in the war-weary West -- or forcing a general crisis of
confidence among the coalition partners -- could be an effective way of
weakening them all over the long term.
Whether the Taliban will
manage to follow up this psychological offensive and consolidate their
military successes when the fighting season resumes next spring is, at this
point, an open question. But their staying power, after five years of
warfare, is not.Send questions or comments on this article to analysis@stratfor.com.
The True Dangers Of Secondhand Smoke
Topic: Global Warming
I have always felt that the dangers of secondhand smoke are grossly exagerated, but I have to admit, when I read
Confronting global warming hysteria: Sen. James Inhofe takes on CNN and the rest of the MSM from Sister Toldjah and got to
GORE: CIGARETTE SMOKING ‘SIGNIFICANT’ CONTRIBUTOR TO GLOBAL WARMING
Fri Sep 29 2006 09:04:05 ET
Former U.S. Vice President Al Gore warned hundreds of U.N. diplomats and staff on Thursday evening about the perils of climate change, claiming: Cigarette smoking is a “significant contributor to global warming!”
Gore, who was introduced by Secretary-General Kofi Annan, said the world faces a “full-scale climate emergency that threatens the future of civilization on earth.”
Gore showed computer-generated projections of ocean water rushing in to submerge the San Francisco Bay Area, New York City, parts of China, India and other nations, should ice shelves in Antarctica or Greenland melt and slip into the sea.
“The planet itself will do nicely, thank you very much what is at risk is human civilization,” Gore said. After a series of Q& A with the audience, which had little to do with global warming and more about his political future, Annan bid “adios” to Gore.
Then, Gore had his staff opened a stack of cardboard boxes to begin selling his new book, “An Inconvenient Truth, The Planetary Emergency of Global Warming and What We Can Do About It,” $19.95, to the U.N. diplomats.
Developing…
I almost choked to death laughing and immediately went on line and ordered a copy of "Inconvenient Truth" from my Netflix account. I have been to serioius lately, I feel I need to kick back and watch some comedy.
Now it is true when I checked for the Gore/Smoking/Global Warming Meme on Snope's all I could find was:
No source available, because "We destroyed all copies of the speech, except for one master which cannot be released... The Gore speech was copyrighted and therefore we cannot release any copies of it."
After a Q&A with the audience, which had little to do with global warming and more about Gore's political future, Annan bid "adios" to his old comrade.
Then, Gore had his aides open a stack of cardboard boxes to begin selling his book, "An Inconvenient Truth."
So, in the end, Gore's lecture on global warming turned into no more than a lavish book party.
U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric had no comment on who footed the bill for the bash.
NewsMax requested from UNTV an audio copy of Gore's address.
At first, NewsMax was told a copy would be provided by the U.N. audio library.
Later, NewsMax was told that copies of the Gore speech would not be available.
"We destroyed all copies of the speech, except for one master which cannot be released," explained one audio librarian.
Dujarric added: "The Gore speech was copyrighted and therefore we cannot release any copies of it."
The formerly "open" address, has now been reclassifed in the UN files as "a closed meeting."
Later on this claim gave me some pause.
"Regardless of what Al Gore said or did not say at the United Nations, there is evidence that tobacco and cigarette smoking contribute to global warming.
Pogue
So I decided to follow the link and look into the claim.
Here it seem is the basis for it.
The smoke from cigarettes also contains greenhouse gases. Cigarette smoke contains carbon dioxide and methane. Smoking worldwide releases about 2.6 billion kilograms of carbon dioxide in the air every year. It also releases about 5.2 billion kilograms of methane every year. Tobacco growing, curing, and smoking all add to the greenhouse effect and global warming
So along with not smoking, it seems if you are reading this and wish to save the planet from Global Warming you should, not eat beans (methane) and stop breathing.
To my utter dismay this website is:
a project of the Center for Integrating Research and Learning at the National
High Magnetic Field Laboratory at Florida State University. Science, Tobacco &
You is a multidisciplinary, multimedia, science curriculum resource. Our goal is to promote scientific literacy by encouraging students to ask and answer questions. In this case, the medium is the issue of tobacco use and prevention.
Independent evaluations of the program are available. These evaluations provide evidence that students utilizing the Science, Tobacco & You curriculum resource demonstrate positive changes in attitudes, beliefs, and core academic knowledge. The activities in the Guidebook are being correlated to the educational standards for every state.
Science, Tobacco & You is also correlated to the
National Science Education Standards.
Our Tax dollars at work folks. And people wonder why our educational system is getting dumbed down? Well if junkscience dogma is what is being taught, why wonder? I checked some state standards and found that depending on the state this material was deemed suitable from Grades 4&5 up to Grade 8 in Washington State. I did not do a comprehensive look through, but I wonder what one would find if one graphed the Educatinal Standard Level for this materail against the States being Liberal or Conservative.
I don't know what disturbs me the most. That our children are being taught this bilge or that a man who proclaims it as truth, almost became President of the United States. Just think how different the world might be if he applied similiar reality based thinking to National Security?
Technorati Tags:
Al Gore :
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The Open Trackback Alliance XLVIII
UPDATE: Denmark Exports SoaringAfter blogger Judith Klinghoffer and an army of Davids declared a "Buy Danish" campaign to combat the Muslim boycott. The Guardian says "fervent rightwing Americans" participated in the buying spree and implies that the cartoonists were responsible for the deaths of 139 people.(like it was the cartoonists who killed those people instead of the ones who shed their blood, how like the Progressive TransNazi viewpoint)
For your listening pleasure while you browse
"Der er et yndigt land" (There Is A Lovely Land)
Words by: Adam Gottlob Oehlenschlager
Music by: Hans Ernst Kr?yer
Adopted: 1844
"Derer et yndigt land" was first performed for a large gathering of Danes in 1844, and became popular quickly with the Danish people. It was adopted later that year by the Danish government as a national anthem, but not the sole national anthem. This anthem is on equal status with "Kong Christian",which is both the national and royal anthem.
When the Danish anthem is usually performed or sung, the first verse is played in its entirety, then it is followed by the last four lines of the last verse. (This is true whether the lyrics are sung or not
Recentlty I have been posting music to Illustrate the Diversity of America, this week I have a different motive to express Solidarity with DENMARK I maintain my Support of Denmark, and will later today, post links to and my thoughts about a Danish Editorial "We are being pissed upon by Per Nyholm "
I think I shall title my Post, "There is no "But" in "Freedom of Speech".
When I first started upon my journey through the blogverse I created a
Statement of PurposeNow upon reading it, one can realize that I did not hold to every detail of that original statement, but from it's basic premise, I have never swayed, in my belief that the Blogs are in fact the Committees of Correspondence of the Second American Revolution.
And that it is a Revolution of Information, no longer can we afford and allow elite gateways to control what we can see, hear and discuss.
For I believe that those bloggers who find their way, here and in particular from the Blogs associated with Sam.
HAVE SOMETHING TO SAY.
Some of us are more Serious, some of us are more lighthearted and some post the common ordinary things that make one smile and recall that Life without the simple things to treasure is meaningless.
And it is important that all have a platform from which to speak.
As I understand this process you can link to this post and trackback to this post on ANY subject or post you think important. It is open. I will repeat this every Monday.
The Committees of Correspondence welcomes your intelligent comments. And also welcomes you to join the
OPEN TRACKBACK ALLIANCEThis week I also have shortened my usual introduction for a more inportant message.
In it's struggle for Freedom of Speech.
Sign the Petition NOW!
JEG opstille hos Danmark!46410 Total Signatures 12:03 AM CDT October 30, 2006 We can do better pass the word~!
From Agora a call to
Support the Manifesto online by signing another Petition, why not sign both?
MANIFESTO: Together facing the new totalitarianism
Created by Mark Jefferson on March 1st, 2006 at 5:42 pm AST
After having overcome fascism, Nazism, and Stalinism, the world now faces a new totalitarian global threat: Islamism.
We, writers, journalists, intellectuals, call for resistance to religious totalitarianism and for the promotion of freedom, equal opportunity and secular values for all. "
Blogs that Trackback to this Post:
On Monday
Is Islam Evil? from third world county
Bounty...Islamic Style from 123beta
Pumpkin Faces from Planck's Constant
Hollywood?s Silly Scene from Comedian Jen??e: People are Idiots
Y'al come back now, Y'heah? ;-)
Technorati Tag:Denmark***Free Speech***Jihad***Army of Davids
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