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Saturday, 3 December 2005
Only in Horseshoes and Hand Grenades
We are continuously hearing excited and breathless pronouncements of the latest polls. The Presidents approval rating is etc etc.

Some polls that are not advertised too much are.

One I posted about in The Lemming Left

Democrats' own mood poll scares them

Jun. 29, 2005 at 10:48AM

A poll on the political mood in the United States conducted by the Democratic Party has alarmed the party at its own loss of popularity.
Conducted by the party-affiliated Democracy Corps, the poll indicated 43 percent of voters favored the Republican Party, while 38 percent had positive feelings about Democrats.
"Republicans weakened in this poll ... but it shows Democrats weakening more," said Stanley Greenberg, who served as President Clinton's pollster.

It would appear despite wishful thinking that approval ratings are not a Zero Sum game and a decline for one side does not necessarily mean an increase for the other.

There is also some more recent polling data I posted about in
The Lizard Brain

from Protein Wisdom

"Full disclosure: I am not a pollster, nor am I a licensed statistician?so take my analysis with a grain of salt. But if I?m reading this right, 70% of Americans believe that Democratic party criticism of the war is motivated by partisan political impulses?a desire for power, to put it more forcefully?rather than a desire to help the US win the war in Iraq.


Similarly, 70% of Americans think that the Democrats? attacks on the war are damaging troop morale, which necessarily creates unnecessary problems in battlefield execution.

70% "

The above was reaction to an article in the
Washington Post:: Sympathetic Vibrations

Democrats fumed last week at Vice President Cheney?s suggestion that criticism of the administration?s war policies was itself becoming a hindrance to the war effort. But a new poll indicates most Americans are sympathetic to Cheney?s point.

Seventy percent of people surveyed said that criticism of the war by Democratic senators hurts troop morale?with 44 percent saying morale is hurt ?a lot,? according to a poll taken by RT Strategies. Even self-identified Democrats agree: 55 percent believe criticism hurts morale, while 21 percent say it helps morale.

The results surely will rankle many Democrats, who argue that it is patriotic and supportive of the troops to call attention to what they believe are deep flaws in President Bush?s Iraq strategy. But the survey itself cannot be dismissed as a partisan attack. The RTs in RT Strategies are Thomas Riehle, a Democrat, and Lance Tarrance, a veteran GOP pollster.

Their poll also indicates many Americans are skeptical of Democratic complaints about the war. Just three of 10 adults accept that Democrats are leveling criticism because they believe this will help U.S. efforts in Iraq. A majority believes the motive is really to ?gain a partisan political advantage."

I got to thinking about all these polls last night. President Bush's approval rating is the one we hear the most about. I checked Rasmussen Polls on a regular basis and today
President Bush Job Approval stands at 46, everyone knows it has been lower, we are most surely informed when that happens, if it climbs a little, well that is not News is it?

But today I decided to look at President Bush's approval rating from a different viewpoint. One I have not seen used before.

We all know that the Constitution prohibits The President from running for a third term.

But if it were possible what Democratic Leader do we hear about as one of the most likely to win the nomination in 2008?

Hillary Clinton and according to Rasmussen's Hillary Meter:
Support Falls to 2005 Low

November 30, 2005--If Hillary Clinton runs for President in 2008, just 25% of Americans say they would definitely vote for her. That's down five points over the past two weeks. It's also the lowest level of support measured for the former First Lady in 2005. (Review Trends).

Forty percent (40%) would definitely vote against Senator Clinton. That's little changed from two weeks ago. Rasmussen Reports has conducted a Hillary Meter poll every other week since April. Only once has the number who say they would definitely vote against Clinton been higher than it is now.

Forty-five percent (45%) now see Clinton as politically liberal. Over the past seven months, the number viewing her as politically liberal has ranged from a low of 42% to a high of 48%, often settling around the current level of 45%.

Thirty-five percent (35%) view New York's Junior Senator as politically moderate while 6% say she's conservative.

Collectively, today?s Hillary Meter places Senator Clinton a net 56 points to the left of the nation's political center. Two weeks ago, she was 53 points to the left of center.

So the Democrats are going to have to find another best hope. All the pronouncements about a Decline in Bush's approval rating are meaningless if the Democratic Party's is lower.

Close only counts in Horseshoes and Hand Grenades.

Linked to
The Crazy Rants of Samantha Burns at OTA Weekend
Point Five at Carnival of the Ecletic
Stuck On Stupid at Grandma Hoists Baby Jesus & Link Fest
The Uncooperative Blogger at Weekend Open Trackback Party!
Oblogatory Anecdotes at Weekend Open Trackbacks
Right Wing Nation at Weekend Open Trackbacks at OPEN TRACKBACKS 10
Stop The ACLU at Weekend Party for the Politically Incorrect

UPDATE There is a military phrase, "Defeat in Detail" from the looks a new Washinton Post Article

Democratic Lawmakers Splinter on Iraq, the process may have already started.

Marshall Wittmann, a former Republican political strategist now with the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, said Pelosi may have resurrected her party's most deadly liability -- voters' lack of trust in the party on national security.

"If Karl Rove was writing the timing of this, he wouldn't have written it any differently, with the president of the United States expressing resolve and the Democratic leader offering surrender," Wittmann said, referring to Bush's top adviser. "For Republicans, this is manna from heaven."


Posted by ky/kentuckydan at 7:51 AM CST
| Post Comment | View Comments (2) | Permalink | Share This Post
Updated: Saturday, 3 December 2005 2:37 PM CST

Saturday, 3 December 2005 - 1:58 PM CST

Name: Diane
Home Page:

Bush being from Texas should have a better chance with the horseshoes.

Interesting thought here Dan. I'd have to agree with your take on this.

Saturday, 3 December 2005 - 5:16 PM CST

Name: Peter Porcupine
Home Page:

I had read the RT poll story, and appreciated that it not only reported numbers, but gave the wording of the poll questions - too few such stories do. My own current post, Never Play Poker with a Democrat, is of the 'what are they THINKING' variety.

But I have one deep qualm. The ONLY poll that matters is held every two and four years. All the rest are gossip and conjecture; valuable in their way, but nothing more. The biggest flaw of the Clinton administration, above and beyond his conduct, was his tendency to govern according to polls and consensus, when leadership and decisionmaking were sorely required. The story about John Kerry doing a poll before responding to the Al Jazeera tape that surfaced during the campaign may be apochryphal, but it rings true. We must not fall prey to this kind of fuzzy thinking.

On the bright side, Sen. Clinton may be so dismayed that we will hear nothing from her in 2008!

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