State Change is a Chaos Theory Model in which a cusp point is reached and a previous gradual change suddenly becomes a rapid and total change of State.
An example would be water at 32 degrees Fahrenheit. At that temperature water can exist either as liquid water or solid ice. ANY withdrawal
of heat from liquid water at 32 degrees will result in rapid and massive crystallization into Ice.
Another example I hope you never encounter is Flash Steaming in a microwave.
a stationary cup of water in a microwave oven can heat past the boiling point without actually boiling. If that happens, placing an object (like a teabag) in the water or jarring the cup could cause the sudden — and explosive — conversion of part of the water to steam.
Few realize that it is possible to super heat water in a microwave. It will still be in liquid form but the SLIGHTEST disturbance in some cases just lifting a cup and jiggling the water can make the entire contents Flash into steam some people have gotten severe facial scalding that way.
So what does all this have with the Fifth Republic and by implication the riots and unrest in France today?
It is not that change in Europe and France in particular came as any great surprise to me. I have been expecting it. In that I am not unique.
Tony Blankley in his article Islamist Threat in France in FrontPageMagazine.com | November 10, 2005
When, seven months ago, I finished writing my book, "The West's Last Chance: Will We Win the Clash of Civilizations?" (Regnery Publishing, Washington D.C. September 11, 2005),
London had not been attacked by Islamist terrorists, the Tate Museum in London had not removed an art exhibit because it offended radical Muslim sensitivities and France had not yet experienced the explosion of violence from elements of its Muslim population in its "no-go zone" communities.
The fact that I predicted all those events in my book was not the result of clairvoyance. It was merely the result of a normally intelligent person looking at the facts, and their rather obvious implications, without the blinding effect of a politically correct mentality.
It has been the extreme rapidness of events that took me aback. I allowed myself to be lulled into a false sense of Time. Time that I fear, since the discovery of other factors, does not exist.
It was the fact that the immigrant population of France was no more than 10% that lulled me into a false sense of non-immediate urgency. I knew that the immigrant population was growing at a rate far exceeding the Native population but given the 9 to 1 ratio, I thought the tipping point would not be for at least ONE maybe TWO generations, say 2025 or 2050.
I was mistaken. In his article It?s the demography, stupid Mark Steyn shatters all my illusions.
Was it when he wrote:
When you?ve got estranged demographic groups with 50?60 per cent unemployment and an over-regulated economy that restricts social mobility, lavish welfare is nothing more than government- festering.
No, in and of itself that is bad but not the worst piece of information.
It was this bit that made me sit up in my chair, come wide awake and locked and riveted my eyes.
Now go back to that bland statistic you hear a lot these days: ?about 10 per cent of France?s population is Muslim?. Give or take a million here, a million there, that?s broadly correct, as far as it goes. But the population spread isn?t even. And when it comes to those living in France aged 20 and under, about 30 per cent are said to be Muslim and in the major urban centres about 45 per cent. If it came down to street-by-street fighting, as Michel Gurfinkiel, the editor of Valeurs Actuelles, points out, ?the combatant ratio in any ethnic war may thus be one to one? ? already, right now, in 2005
So the tipping point may not be a comfortable one to two generations in the future, it may be NOW. Not long ago I wrote somewhere that I fully expected the US to be accepting Jews from Europe under refugee status in the next 5 to 10 years, now I am wondering if we will be doing the same for average Christian and Secular French natives at the same time?
You may accuse me of being alarmist, but recall the rapid and sudden collapse of the Soviet Bloc? It expired in a fashion no one anticipated before the fact, though there have been plenty of articles written since trying to prove that they had previously predicted those events (if you had asked them at the time say in the 80s they would have insisted that was winning and Capitalism was doomed).
There are those who deny any religious factor to the French Riots at all. They will insist the violence has roots totally in financial, and discrimination reasons. They are correct, except for the totally.
We are dealing of course with those who have no conception of motivations, they are alien to their thinking processes so are automatically discarded.
It is true that France has a terrible unemployment problem, that the immigrants due to many different social factors have not been assimilated. It is also true that many do not want to be . They wish their own culture to be unchanged even in a a foreign country and are willing to use violence to force others to accept their culture. Violence upon some Native French in the Cites and violence upon some of their own, usually women to force them to conform to the precepts of their religious laws.
They wish to reintroduce the millet system of the Ottoman Empire, where there were semi-autonomous enclaves, States with in States.
In any event the Revolutionary Swims in the Sea of the Proletariat, and the Sea has to be disturbed, the Proletariat has to have , else the Revolutionary has nothing to
prompt to Rise Up! for, do they?
Happy, Content, Prosperous people do not rise up and Throw Off their Non-Shackles. So it is not the case that these financial and discrimination progenitors of the riots, exclude a component, they are required for there to be effective Religious Revolutionary Movement.
All of this begs one question, when did the Riots really begin? !No Pasaran! in Normale sup' states,
Looks like the normal rate of car burning in France is going to superior to the previous normal rate
One thing painfully apparent is that it was several days almost a week before the violence increased to unusual levels and it has not dropped back to previous levels!
One of the commentators to this post says
this diagram is wrong. ut's been 5 year now that there are between 80 to 100 cars burned in france.
before november there had already been more than 25 000 cars burned. t
thiese informatiosna re very easy to get (INSEE french statistical organisation). so the newsparepr the parisian is deliberately sending a wrong information.
delli | Email | Homepage | 11.18.05 - 1:55 pm | #
Say what? In the last 5 years 25,000 cars torched?
You mean there has been a continual low level riot ongoing for some time?
Another oddity apparent in the carbecue graph, riots usually spark rapidly and then taper off. They do not putter around for almost a week and THEN explode. They do not also, usually include internet, and cell phone communication, nor do they engender facilities for devices.
Those are normally hallmarks of insurrection.
So it would appear to an unbiased outsider that the French Fifth Republic is under attack from without and within. I do not know off hand the answer to the Cultural Assimilation problem. The unemployment problem can only be solved by reversing the processes which created it. To institute the hated Anglo-Saxon Capitalist Social Model in replace of the failed Socialist one.
It will be difficult and require much sacrifice from the French Body Politic and be bitterly opposed by the Ruling Elite and the Trade Unions but I am afraid the only alternatives is to allow things to go on the way they are until the system collapse totally into
A Historical European Fascism if State Change occurs within the next 5 years of so, an Islamic Fascism if things do not explode totally until 10 years or so from now.
I will state this for the record, one of the main sparks for the recent violence seems to have been the Police entering areas they had previously completely abandoned! A State that withdraws the basic Rule of Law from a portion of it's territory, and allows another Culture complete control has already died, it just has not fallen over yet.
France is like a semi on a mountain downcline that has just lost it's brakes, if it is very lucky it will find a runaway ramp and safely coast to a stop.
If unlucky it will continual to accelerate out of control until it dives off a cliff.
There is not much time left. If State Change does occur, will it be the relatively slow crystallization of ice forming or the rapid and deadly flashing of super heated steam?
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third world county at Saturday Mishmash #x?around and about