25 May 2002
NORMAL MONSOON IN INDIA FOR 14TH
YEAR RUNNING
From Jal Khambata
NEW DELHI:
Good news is that India is going to have a normal monsoon for the
14th consecutive year as the Indian Meteorological Department on
Saturday forecast 101 per cent of the long period average rain of 88
cm during the 2002 south-west monsoon season of June to
September.
That means no drought is likely in any part of the
country, Metereological Director General Dr R R Kelkar disclosed at a
Press conference held here on Saturday to release the monsoon
forecast.
Actual rainfall during 2001 was 91 per cent of the
long period average (LPA) as against 98 per cent forecast, but Dr
Kelkar said the forecast was not off the mark since the normal is
defined as rainfall within plus or minus 10 per cent of it long
period average.
Breaking up India into three zones, it will be
around 95 cm (104 per cent of LPA) in the North-West India, 87.12 cm
(99 per cent of LPA) over the Peninsula and 88 cm (100 per cent of
LPA) over North-East India. The estimated model error can be minus or
plus 8 per cent.
The North-West India comprises Jammu and
Kashmir, Punjab, Himachal pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana,
Utaranchal and Delhi.
The Peninsula covers Gujarat, Madhya
Pradesh, Maharashtra, Goa, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu,
Kerala, Lakshadweep and Chhattisgarh.
The North-East India
comprises Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, West Bengal, Sikkim, Andaman and
Nicobar Islands and the northeastern states.
Dr Kelkar
disclosed that the South-West monsoon has already kept its date,
arriving on May 14 over the north Andaman Sea, and it is likely to
hit Kerala around its normal date of June 1 and Mumbai by June 10.
The monsoon takes almost one and a half month to cover the entire
country, reaching Rajasthan the last around July 15.
Is global
warming having any impact on the Indian monsoon? Dr Kelkar explained
that the global warming means the land temperature rising faster than
ocean's and monsoon is affected by the land-sea temperature gradiant.
The global warming should thus mean stronger monsoon. But, Dr Kelkar
laid emphasis on 'but', there is no trend of any effect on monsoon in
the past 101 years.
The Meteorological Department uses 16
model parameters to forecast monsoon and 11 of these were favourable
this year. pointing out that India is lucky to have normal rainfall
since 1989, Dr Kelkar said this is the third long spell of normal or
excess rainfall in the past 100 years as the earlier two such spells
were in 1921-1940 and 1952-1964. END