25 May 2002

NORMAL MONSOON IN INDIA FOR 14TH YEAR RUNNING

From Jal Khambata

NEW DELHI: Good news is that India is going to have a normal monsoon for the 14th consecutive year as the Indian Meteorological Department on Saturday forecast 101 per cent of the long period average rain of 88 cm during the 2002 south-west monsoon season of June to September.

That means no drought is likely in any part of the country, Metereological Director General Dr R R Kelkar disclosed at a Press conference held here on Saturday to release the monsoon forecast.

Actual rainfall during 2001 was 91 per cent of the long period average (LPA) as against 98 per cent forecast, but Dr Kelkar said the forecast was not off the mark since the normal is defined as rainfall within plus or minus 10 per cent of it long period average.

Breaking up India into three zones, it will be around 95 cm (104 per cent of LPA) in the North-West India, 87.12 cm (99 per cent of LPA) over the Peninsula and 88 cm (100 per cent of LPA) over North-East India. The estimated model error can be minus or plus 8 per cent.

The North-West India comprises Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, Himachal pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Utaranchal and Delhi.

The Peninsula covers Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Goa, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Chhattisgarh.

The North-East India comprises Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, West Bengal, Sikkim, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the northeastern states.

Dr Kelkar disclosed that the South-West monsoon has already kept its date, arriving on May 14 over the north Andaman Sea, and it is likely to hit Kerala around its normal date of June 1 and Mumbai by June 10. The monsoon takes almost one and a half month to cover the entire country, reaching Rajasthan the last around July 15.

Is global warming having any impact on the Indian monsoon? Dr Kelkar explained that the global warming means the land temperature rising faster than ocean's and monsoon is affected by the land-sea temperature gradiant. The global warming should thus mean stronger monsoon. But, Dr Kelkar laid emphasis on 'but', there is no trend of any effect on monsoon in the past 101 years.

The Meteorological Department uses 16 model parameters to forecast monsoon and 11 of these were favourable this year. pointing out that India is lucky to have normal rainfall since 1989, Dr Kelkar said this is the third long spell of normal or excess rainfall in the past 100 years as the earlier two such spells were in 1921-1940 and 1952-1964. END