The BALKANS
Doug-About
Border territories
Tactics by Andrew Geraghty 8th March 2003
The Black Sea is Turkish territory in the long term.
It is Turkey's "North Sea".
It is the quickest way to convoy troops into Europe, usually via Rumania.
It gives uncuttable support to armies nearby.
Alone it will keep an attacker covering multiple centres while trying to attack.
If Russia and Turkey are in a Steamroller alliance and Russia has a fleet in the BS, I would view Russia as the "senior partner" in the alliance and Turkey as a puppet, because that fleet threatens two home centres of Turkey all the time.
Every nation fighting in the Balkans wants to see two of its own armies in Rumania and Bulgaria.
This is particularly important to Turkey as it provides the momentum to punch forward, otherwise Turkey will languish at home.
The only nation which is happy to see fleets in Bulgaria or Rumania is Austria, because "marines" cannot threaten its interests in Budapest and Serbia.
For these reasons it is often in the Turk's interests to get Russian agreement to make an opening such as ("disguised Steamroller"):
Sp 01: Ank- Bla; Smy- Arm; Con - Bulg
F 01: Bla c Arm - Rum; Arm - Rum, Bulg s Arm - Rum
By agreement, this act blows up an unsupported Russian fleet in Rumania.
Russia rebuilds this as an army.
This removes a thorn from the side of the Steamroller.
It also gives Turkey the two crucial armies in the Balkans, while giving the appearance, at the end of spring, that Turkey is committed to its promises of gutting Russia.
Russia, meanwhile, tries very hard to negotiate its way unopposed into Sweden, particularly during the Fall turn when it pleads the threat of Turkey (how can I cover Rumania AND Sev?).
Having bounced the Austrian in Galicia, in Fall the Russian orders Ukraine - Gal, War s Ukr - Gal. (Or the reverse).
Thus in Spring 1902, face a possible/probable Steamroller, Austria faces Armies in Galicia, Rumania, Bulgaria and a new Turkish fleet heading for the Aegean.
The rebuilt Russian army, possibly now in Warsaw, could be supported into Galicia while the Russian army in Galicia slips into Bohemia with or without German connivance.
Austrian survival now hinges on Italy's attitude, so a successful steamroller will try to organise a French push into the Med to keep Italy busy. Russia should consider supporting an attack on England, with Germany as the primary attacker (as you want at least 2 fleets heading to the Med).
This should guarantee Sweden.
You get Scandinavia and support the Germans into Nth Sea (definitely) and Norwegian (possibly).
It is important for Russia to keep England on the back foot and avoid an EFG, which will have Russia as a priority target.
Even if England doesn't die, the assault should create lots of bickering between England and Germany that can be exploited in preventing those two making mileage in Scandinavia later.
It is not enough to consider the tactical options in front of your armies.
You must consider the strategic positions behind your enemy's armies.
Remove their allies, undermine their confidence, cut away their prospects of support, sow seeds of uncertainty through fact, re-interpretation of intentions and, of course, a few simple and judicious lies.
Always remember that the truth is easiest to remember than a pack of lies; just don't tell the whole truth and always remember to give a positive spin, from your listener's perspective, on what you're doing.
Try to avoid habits. I know one tournament player whose eyes, I swear, used to spin when he was contemplating backstabbing during an alliance. It was a mannerism which rang bells.
I know that my habit is to unconsciously fail to negotiate with my target in the turn before my attack.
This is not 100% true but might as well be.
Watch for those signal character traits which provide radar warnings of possible moves.
Now let's consider the Austrian Perspective.
The stock standard opening for Austria is Bud - Serb, Tri - Alb then Serb spt Alb - Gre in Fall.
This should guarantee 2 builds in Fall, usually both armies.
The "swing piece" is Vienna, which often goes to Galicia but could cover Tri or go to Boh to support Italians or Russians into Munich.
Austria has a choice in Fall 1901 of promoting either Turkey or Russia against the other by using Serbia to support an attack on Rumania or Bulgaria.
As I have shown, Turkey does not need help to do this.
HOWEVER, Austria could give unwanted support to the Russian fleet in Rumania, which would NOT blow up, leaving the Turks in Armenia and scuttling their 1901 Steamroller plans (maybe NOW the Turk will consider attacking Russia?).
On the other hand, by supporting the Russian fleet Rum - Bulg, the Turks would get no build and the Russo-Austrians would have Fleet Gre, Fleet Bulg and Fleet Sev (Russian built). Ugly!
However, it is a risky play for Austria.
If Turkey reneges they can bounce Alb - Gre and if the Italians have taken Trieste and, worse, Tri AND Vie, it is all over red rover for Austria.
But 1901 is all about risks, especially taking those risks which cement alliances.
Let's say Turkey opens to Armenia in a disguised Steamroller.
Austria promises Turkey and Russian an R-A-T alliance and offers to go to Boh and support Russian Silesia-Munich.
Russia (confident down south) opens Sev-Rum, War-Sil, StP-GOB, Mos-StP.
Austria opens Bud-Serb, Tri-Alb, Vie-Gal (cites last-minute nerves for this).
Turks open Ank-Bla, Smy-Arm, Con-Bul.
Russia is nervous but out of position and must pray that agreements hold fast.
Austria moves Gal-Rum, Serb s Gal-Rum (the opposite is strategically better but tactically weaker).
Turkey moves Arm-Sev, Bla s Arm-Sev.
It is in Germany's interests to bounce the Russians in Sweden UNLESS they feel Russia will go down too quickly and they can't get to the spoils first.
The Turks should lie convincingly to Germany that the Steamroller is still on and that Austria is the target.
This should encourage a possible bounce, although Russia has move nth/sth presumably after promising aid against England.
The result will be a paranoia cocktail of who guesses and believes what.
Lastly, in terms of Austrian considerations, the Turk could promise undying fidelity and major momentum if, for example, the Austria support Ar Bulg-Rum, allowing Arm-Sev to sneak in and Bla-Bulg (ec).
I have managed it once as Turkey and, frankly, no Austrian should want to see Turkey grow this quickly. it *could* work out, eg Turks build Fl Smy, Fl Con, Ar Ank, but chances are Austria has just volunteered to become a minor power in an AT alliances.
Non-Balkanite considerations: if you don't border on the Balkans (Italy does, effectively), there is one word to remember and that word is SQUABBLE.
France, Germany and England should promote as much bickering as they can in the Balkans.
The Balkans is what keeps the southern powers busy while the western powers get sorted.
The sooner the Balkans is sorted out, the worse for the West.
An EFG wants an ally in the Balkan mosh pit and Turkey is the most likely candidate, because he may well have his back to the wall and, if not, may have the hungriest intentions.
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