Ecology Notes

Population Dynamics [Notes]

POPULATION DYNAMICS

In 1990, the population of the world had reached 5.3 billion people. In 1998 this population was now 6.06 billion. This population was unequally divided between the 33 more developed countries (MDC'S) and the 150 less developed countries (LDC's).
Population growth for the planet is related to only two factors:
Population increase (or decrease) equals
net birth rate minus net death rate.
In 1990, the birth rate for the world was 27 live births/1000 persons. The death rate was 9 deaths/1000. This represents a growth rate of 1.8% (27-9)/10 = 18/10 = 1.8. Comparable 1996 rates are a little better with a growth rate of 1.55%.
This represents an increase:
1981 1985 1991 1994
per day 205,000 221,000 260,000 245,500
per week 1,400,000 1,550,000 1,800,000 1,723,000
per year 75,000,000 81,000,000 95,000,000 89,600,000

Until very recently, population increase has been more the result of a DECREASE IN DEATH RATE than in changes in other factors. Prior to 1940, the birth rate only slightly exceeded the the death rate. Major changes came about with three events:
introduction of Penicillin,
introduction of Streptomycin
and development of DDT.

MAJOR FACTORS AFFECTING HUMAN POPULATION SIZE

  • I. Births minus Deaths (Factors Affecting Birth Rates)
  • 1. TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR) - An estimate of the average number of children women have during their reproductive years (15-44 in U.S.; 12-49 in LDC's); computed as live births /1000 for women in this age bracket
    1994 average TFR worldwide 3.2
    average TFR (LCD's) 3.6
    average TFR (MDC's) 1.7
  • 2. Average levels of education and affluence (especially female members)
  • 3. Importance of children as part of family labor force.
  • Certain societal signals or attitudes are often at work:
    Stop at Two - ZPG - result 2.1 average
    A boy for you and a girl for me - U.S. ideal - result 3.0
    An heir and a spare - survival in LDC - result 5-7 average
  • 4. Urbanization
  • 5. High cost of raising an educating children - average middle class cost of raising child to age 17 - $230,000
  • 6. Educational and employment opportunities for women
  • 7. Infant mortality rates (see also #3)
  • 8. Average marriage age - older brides tend to have fewer children
  • 9. Availability of private and public pension systems
  • 10. Availability of reliable methods of birth control and easy access to information
  • 11. Religious beliefs, traditions, and cultural norms that influence the number of children couples want to have

  • II. Births minus Deaths (Factors Affecting Death rates)
  • 1. Nutrition related to increased food production and food distribution
  • 2. Availability of improved sanitation and water supplies leading to improved personal hygiene and leading to a reduced incidence and spread of infectious disease organisms
  • 3. Improvements in medical and public health technology, including antibiotics, immunization, and insecticides

  • III. Migration - affects population size for country or region (births + immigration) - (deaths + emigration) = population change rate

    FACTORS INVOLVED IN ESTIMATING POPULATION CHANGE
    1. Doubling Time - only a small percentage change in population growth rate will cause the base number of people to double more rapidly; computed as 70/annual growth rate percentage; current growth rate is 1.6%; this means it will take 43.75 years to double the population if conditions do not change (70/1.6)
    2. Age Structure Diagram or Age Distribution - number or percentage of women of childbearing age and especially the number in the prime reproductive years of 20-29; the shape of the age structure diagram is a key as to whether the population might expand, decline or stay the same.
    METHODS FOR CONTROLLING HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH "The overriding problem in our day is learning to set limits." Garrett Hardin
    Controlling birth rates is the key to controlling the size and growth rate of the human population.
  • A. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
    Demographic Transition - a change in perception as to how many is enough (societal and cultural pressures); Economic development through industrialization will eventually lead to both falling birth rates and falling death rates thus slowing a country's population growth; this transition goes through several stages of development
  • B. FAMILY PLANNING
    Voluntary approaches to limiting the spacing and numbers of children desired; information and contraceptives available to aid this approach; to accept family planning usually requires: an assured food supply together with basic health services; literacy; employment; increase women's rights Family Planning and Birth Control are related but not synonymous
    Examples of Efforts at Human Population Control China and India - two approaches - two different results --------------------------------------------------------------- Justification of Control and Implication of Lack of Control

    State of the Environment is a function of:
    number of people x rate of resource utilization (consumption) x level of technological sophistication (with associated environmental impact such as energy utilization

    • Links Related to Population Dynamics

    Angelfire - Easiest Free Home Pages


    Matt's Script Archive - Awesome Web Server Scripts

    Email: demmelut@ps.fmcc.suny.edu