1. Dirk is going to go nuts on the Heat
I think that most would agree with that statement so I won’t spend too much time on it. I do think that James Posey and Udonis Haslem will do a good job with him, but he is too good to be slowed much by guys like that. I actually wouldn’t be shocked if Dwayne Wade D’ed him up some this series. Bruce Bowen did a pretty decent job on Dirk, and while Wade isn’t quite as tall, he is much more athletic and stronger. So that could be an interesting matchup.
2. Josh Howard will have a good series, but not as great as the sports media is saying
Howard is good. Very good. He isn’t great though and he isn’t consistent. He plays very tough defense, but he is a streaky scorer and can’t seem to go 20 minutes without twisting an ankle. Given how he seems like he is constantly falling apart, I could see his match up with Wade going a lot like the black knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail. His limbs are being taken off, but he keeps coming back for more; his feistiness being the only thing keeping him in battle.
3. Pat Riley is washed up In Game 5 of the Detroit-Miami series, Miami had a chance to close out. They were down ten with 1:45 to go in the game. Now, I know that ten points in a minute forty-five is a little on the high side, but it’s not insurmountable. Especially not when Flip Saunders is coaching your opponent. And especially not when you have Dwayne Wade. So what does Riles do? He took the starters out. Wade and Shaq both watched from the bench as Jason Williams and Antoine Walker attempted to bring the team back. Like that was really going to happen.
4. Avery Johnson
This season’s coach of the year, Johnson is even better than most people think. He can adjust on the fly, he calls time outs at just the right time and always seems to have the right players on the floor at the right time. So many are making a big deal about how great Dirk is, but Johnson is the real reason that this team won 60 games. Dirk definitely raised his level of play, but in large part due to Johnson’s coaching and the balanced rotations that he has on the floor at any given time. Watch this series and try to find a single play where Dallas should have had someone else on the floor. You probably won’t be able to find one.
5. Antoine Walker is going to kill his own team
Playing in the Finals for the first time, Antoine is going to find a way to completely tank the Heat in at least one game. In Game 1 he took some pretty bad shots and had four turnovers. I would look for one truly atrocious game though. Like a 2-15 shooting night in which he goes 0-10 from three point territory. It’s taken him ten years to find the right role for him (third or fourth option on a very good team), but the spotlight of the Finals is going to throw that out the window. He’ll convince himself that his scoring is what will win the title for Miami and we’ll get to watch him jack up 28-footers on fast breaks and try taking a double-team by himself. I can’t wait to see the old Antoine out there.
6. Jason Terry is the man
What a stud. In big games, the guy just catches fire. In Game 1, he lit up the Heat. Except for an air-balled lay-up (seriously, how does that happen? What NBA player gets distracted on a wide open fast break and can’t decide whether or not to dunk it or lay it in?) I was talking last night with my friends Rick and Ari about how, if dunking were not allowed, any one of us could obliterate Shaq in a game of HORSE.
So those were my thoughts. As usual, I was dead wrong. Dirk had a very mediocre series for the expectations that most had of him. I was right about Josh Howard though. He looked good at times, but for every nice play he made, he missed a crucial free throw, or called a timeout at the wrong time. I still stand by my assertion that Riles is washed up. The best thing he did in the Finals was to get out of Dwayne Wade’s way. I can’t decide if I was right or wrong about Avery Johnson. He did a fine job coaching in the Finals, but not spectacular. His team settled for way too many jump shots and he couldn’t get them to take the ball to the rim. Antoine Walker did not have a great series, but he didn’t kill the Heat either. He shot under 40% from the field, but he didn’t throw up one of his classic 2-14 nights either. I was right about Jason Terry. The man has ice water running through his veins. So anyways, those were a few of my thoughts on the Finals. Now on to Gaske’s World’s 2006 NBA Draft preview.
1. Toronto Raptors – Andrea Bargnani
This guy is supposed to be very good and from the video clips that I have seen of him, he looks pretty solid. He also actually played in Europe. Some of these guys who come over play like 2 minutes per game in Europe and then come to the NBA and someone drafts him because they heard he was amazing. If these guys are so amazing, then why can’t they get on the floor for a Euroleague team? Anyways, Bargnani looks like a safe bet and it should definitely add some much needed offense to the Raptors.
2. Chicago Bulls – Tyrus Thomas
An athletic freak. Chicago already needs to be running a lot more than they do, but drafting someone as fast and with the jumping ability of Tyrus Thomas, that uptempo style will become even more necessary. They desperately need another big man and Thomas should provide that. On a somewhat related note: Thomas is a poor man’s Shawn James. This guy plays for Northeastern and almost nobody has ever heard of him. Last season, he shot about 43% from 3 pt range and blocked 6.5 shots per game. Yeah, more than double of what Tyrus Thomas blocked. And James is only 6’8” and about 200 lbs. This guy is an absolute freak. When there is someone that can shoot like that and has the instincts to block that many shots, is there a reason why someone wouldn’t have made him a lottery pick this year if he had decided to declare?
Another aside – this pick belonged to the Knicks, but they traded it to get Eddy Curry (whose contract has run out, so they basically traded to get the use of a lazy center for one season). This draft is in Madison Square Garden. How loud will people be yelling when Chicago winds up with a player like Tyrus Thomas?
3. Charlotte Bobcats – Rudy Gay
They desperately need a perimeter scorer and Gay will provide that. But get ready to watch a guy who doesn’t play defense and mails in games. From what I have seen and heard, he makes Jerome James look like Michael Jordon in terms of work ethic. Then again, MJ will be making this draft selection, so maybe he will wise up and take Brandon Roy instead.
4. Portland Trailblazers – LaMarcus Aldridge
nbadraft.net has Aldridge going #7 to Boston, but I really see Portland taking him. They need another big man, especially if Przybilla leaves in free agency.
5. Atlanta Hawks – Adam Morrison
The Hawks will no doubt seize the opportunity to select another small forward, even though they have Josh Childress, Josh Smith, Marvin Williams and Al Harrington at that position. And the fact that Morrison has severe diabetes will make him even more appealing to Atlanta. What a train wreck of a team.
6. Minnesota Timberwolves – Brandon Roy
Minnesota needs help and a lot of it. Kevin Garnett is looking to be traded in the off-season and drafting a guy like Roy (assuming that Charlotte doesn’t take him) who can come right in and contribute will be their attempt at keeping him. If they wind up with Rudy Gay, the KG is as good as gone. Of course, he might leave regardless of who they draft.
7. Boston Celtics – Shelden Williams
They have a ton of young talent that has been developing for the past few years. It’s time for Danny Ainge to start drafting guys who can step right in and play well. While Williams isn’t the most talented player in the draft, he should be the interior defensive presence that the Celtics need to make a playoff run.
8. Houston Rockets – Marcus Williams
They are in dire need of a point guard and Williams should be the answer here. They could go with Foye, but they need a pure pg and Williams is just that. Of course, he has had some off-the-court issues, but that shouldn’t deter Houston from drafting the best point guard in this draft class.
9. Golden State Warriors – Randy Foye
Baron Davis is begging out of Golden State, so that will leave a hole at the point spot. Foye will be the best available point guard by now, so that’s got to be their pick. then again, they could always further over-crowd their front court by taking Patrick O’Bryant. You never know, Chris Mullin is calling the shots.
10. Seattle Supersonics – Cedric Simmons
I’ve read that Seattle might take a big man if they can’t re-sign Chris Wilcox. What has Wilcox ever done in the NBA? You mean he averaged 14 points and 8 rebounds over only 29 games in a contract year? I don’t know, it sounds like Isiah Thomas might try to lure him away… My point is that Wilcox is not a serious starter in the NBA. He isn’t motivated enough to be one. So the Sonics need to go with an inside player regardless of whether they keep Wilcox or not. Simmons starred at NC State should be a good fit alongside Nick Collison and Johan Petro.
11. Orlando Magic – JJ Redick
They have a very bright future in Dwight Howard and Darko Milicic (I never thought I would be saying that about Darko). They have a solid point guard in Jameer Nelson, but they need some outside shooting to ease the pressure off their front line. Redick definitely won’t be a star, but he can shoot from 80 feet, so he should be able to help them.
12. New Orleans Hornets – Rodney Carney
Carney will slip pretty far because he isn’t a great shooter and he didn’t exactly come up big in the tourney. The Hornets are set at point guard and power forward, but need someone at every other position. They won’t be ready to contend for a couple years, so they can afford to take on someone who still needs to develop a little more. Carney should be a steal at #12.
13. Philadelphia 76ers – Patrick O’Bryant
Philly is probably the only team stupid enough to take O’Bryant with a lottery pick. The Bradley big man looked impressive in the NCAA tourney, but something about him screams under-achiever. He doesn’t strike me as particularly tough and probably won’t be named to the Dennis Rodman All-Hustle team any time soon. Philly is right up there with Atlanta in terms of chasing New York for the title of worst run franchise. (who ever thought that the Clippers would get off that list?)
14. Utah Jazz – Ronnie Brewer
Utah has their point guard of the future in Deron Williams, their small forward of the future in Andrei Kirilenko and their center of the future in Mehmet Okur. They will probably trade Carlos Boozer to get a decent power forward, so that leaves a spot open at shooting guard. Gordon Giricek is a solid reserve, but they need a starter at shooting guard and Brewer may turn out to be one of the top players in this draft class.
15. New Orleans Hornets – trading the pick
New Orleans has a lot of needs. They could use a shooter, a small forward and a center. They are actually pretty set at power forward between David West, PJ Brown and Brandon Bass. But they run a variation of the Princeton offense and need guys who can shoot (then again, the rule changes in the league make it so every team needs guys who can shoot). I would look for them to trade maybe with a team like Toronto to get a guy like Mo Peterson and an early second round pick so they can draft Kevin Pittsnogle.
If they do trade the pick to Toronto, look for the Raptors to take someone like Jordon Farmar or Maurice Ager.
16. Chicago Bulls – Saer Sene
He has only been playing for three years, but has ridiculous potential and is supposedly a very hard worker. In other words, just the kind of player that Scott Skiles likes. Still very raw, Sene should be really developing by the time Chicago is ready to make a title run (three years from now if they can keep their current team together).
17. Indiana Pacers – Hilton Armstrong
This team is a complete mess. Their biggest need is probably in the post though, considering that Jermaine O’Neal has been channeling Antonio McDyess and Marcus Camby. Armstrong should provide some much needed defense and will be a huge upgrade over David Harrison.
18. Washington Wizards – trading pick
They really, really, really need a big man. There aren’t any more decent ones in this draft, so they might as well trade this pick. Rumor has it that they might be high in the running to trade for Kevin Garnett. So this pick may be headed to Minnesota, along with a future first round pick a couple of second round picks, Antawn Jamison and possibly someone like Brendan Haywood. This might just be wishful thinking, but if Garnett is going to be traded, I think this is a realistic possibility.
If Minnesota gets this pick, look for them to take Oleksiy Pecherov. They are going to need help in the front court and Pecherov should still be around at #18 to help out.
19. Sacramento Kings – Rajon Rondo
True he can’t drain a jumper to save his life, but his athleticism combined with Sactown’s need for a backup point guard will make Rondo a good pick for the Kings.
20. New York Knicks – something that doesn’t make any sense at all
This is the Knicks first pick, so let me share with you an exchange I had with Carley:
Carley: so what are the odds that isiah thomas will draft himself?
Me: Vegas is no longer taking bets because it is a sure thing.
Carley: damn, I was looking to make a quick buck
That should tell you all you need to know about Isiah Thomas. That said, I see him taking Shannon Brown. Isiah will love Brown’s athleticism and the fact that the Knicks already have like 25 guards will make this an ideal pick for the Knicks.
21. Phoenix Suns – Maurice Ager
If Ager is still around at #21, he is a sure thing for Phoenix. They really want Saer Sene, but there is no way he is still around at #21. So without being able to get help in the front court, they will continue to build their back-court. They will probably just turn to free agency to get a forward (Jared Jeffries…)
22. New Jersey Nets – Sergio Rodriguez
Jason Kidd is not getting any younger and they are going to need a point guard to take his place soon. Rodriguez should be just that. I don’t really have a lot to say about NJ though, they have some good pieces already in place and their only real need is at power forward, which they probably won’t get any help at with the #22 pick.
23. New Jersey Nets – Shawne Williams
Rumor has it that Richard Jefferson might be traded, probably to get a power forward. That will leave a hole at small forward, which Williams should be able to fill. He is very athletic and will be a nice replacement for Jefferson. Can I just say though, that Williams has got to be one of the weaker players I’ve heard of. The other day in a workout, he was told to bench press as much weight as possible. He put up 185 pounds. True, I can’t do that, but I’m not looking at the NBA and I’m not 6’9” and 225 lbs.
24. Memphis Grizzlies – Mardy Collins
I’m with nbadraft.net on this one. Memphis needs a shooting guard to replace the ageing Eddie Jones and Collins makes some sense here. And being from Temple, he’ll be grateful just to get to the postseason, so he probably won’t sweat being swept in the first round every year.
25. Cleveland Cavaliers – Kyle Lowry
Eric Snow and Damon Jones clearly are not the answers at point guard. Lowry ought to be and should be a steal at #25. Cleveland still needs some help inside, but that won’t really be available this late. For the love of G-d though, can we please get LeBron some help? Is there any reason why Cleveland can’t get a decent #2 guy? Danny Ferry should have known that Larry Hughes is a #3 or #4 guy on a very good team. Is it too much to ask to surround the best player in the league with guys he can trust not to screw up?
26. LA Lakers – Josh Boone
The Lake show needs help inside and so they will turn to defensive specialist, Josh Boone. At UConn, he kept looking like he was just on the verge of breaking out. But he looked that way for three straight years. As is par for the course, Mitch Kupchak will mess up and take Boone, when Paul Milsap is still out there and just waiting to rebound and play hard for whomever selects him.
27. Phoenix Suns – Brandon Bowman
If they don’t take Pittsnogle, I could see them going for Bowman. They need more guys who can rebound and play inside and while Bowman isn’t a classic bruiser or anything, he can run, is athletic and will do the dirty work that Phoenix needs done.
28. Dallas Mavericks – Paul Davis
Dallas needs another big guy and Davis, while overmatched, will play hard every night. He always looks distraught and desperately needs to hit the weight room, but he could probably give the Mavs ten acceptable minutes per night.
29. New York Knicks – Paul Milsap
Milsap will provide the rebounding that New York completely lacks. Eddy Curry will probably bolt in the off-season, seeing as how New York can’t possibly spend more than they did this season (or can they? that sounds like a challenge that only Isiah Thomas would be up to), so they will need an inside presence (as if Curry provided that in the first place). Milsap will actually make Thomas look intelligent and may wind up saving his job.
On a related note, check out the site http://www.selltheknicks.com These guys are fed up with the Knicks ownership and just want them to be sold to someone competent. They are trying to organize people to shout things during the draft, so tomorrow night could be very interesting.
30. Portland Trailblazers – James White
Portland could use a small forward and White holds a lot of promise. Not too many guys (if anyone) can jump like he can and Portland is so far away from contending that they can afford to gamble on a guy like him. And given the typical character issues of Cincinatti players, he should feel at home on the Blazers.
So there is my 2006 NBA Draft Preview. You probably haven’t read this far, but if you have, then you need to go do something productive now.
