iLikeAdlai: angela!!
Auto response from she loves jurgen: life is great, isnt it.
she loves jurgen: sasha!!
iLikeAdlai: i just read your email! naturally, i was
busy posting like 6 replies to your comment for the
last hour
iLikeAdlai: oooh
iLikeAdlai: was that you that just called?
she loves jurgen: yes
she loves jurgen: im using my dads phone
she loves jurgen: cos he has all these ld minutes hes not
using
iLikeAdlai: haha
iLikeAdlai: my cell is low battery at the moment so
lets talk online instead
iLikeAdlai: i'll plug it in meanwhile
she loves jurgen: alright then
she loves jurgen: whats new sasha
iLikeAdlai: hmmmmm
iLikeAdlai: lets see
iLikeAdlai: life is good, i'm doing nothing all day
iLikeAdlai: i'm losing track of the days of the week
iLikeAdlai: ummm, i watched the flames-sharks
game today
iLikeAdlai: fun
iLikeAdlai: also i started reading jeanette
winterson's the passion. its interesting on one level
but it totally bores me on another.
iLikeAdlai: so i'm wondering whether i should finish
it
iLikeAdlai: this, roughly, is a summary of all the
major events in my life
she loves jurgen: go flames!!!
iLikeAdlai: haha
iLikeAdlai: flames are surprisingly good
iLikeAdlai: i expected them to lose to the red wings
iLikeAdlai: but no
iLikeAdlai: whats new angela
she loves jurgen: the red wings are a bunch of geriatric
assholes, come on
iLikeAdlai: haha
she loves jurgen: well im stressing out
she loves jurgen: youre being mean to canada
she loves jurgen: hahaha
iLikeAdlai: have you started the actual writing?
iLikeAdlai: haha
she loves jurgen: ughhh noooo....
she loves jurgen: im trying
iLikeAdlai: haha, yeah, i'm being mean to canada
she loves jurgen: and one of my students is all trying to
email me her work
she loves jurgen: but shes taking long enough to
fucking do it
iLikeAdlai: i just like trade
iLikeAdlai: oh
iLikeAdlai: why is she emailing it to you?
iLikeAdlai: and you can still be a prof if you don't
get into honours
iLikeAdlai: you'll just be a prof at a crappy
university
iLikeAdlai: ;-)
she loves jurgen: no ill be a prof at some community
college.
she loves jurgen: great.
iLikeAdlai: oh come on
she loves jurgen: its how you get into grad school
iLikeAdlai: i mean, with your gpa, you could get into
a just-below-the-top school in the us for sure
iLikeAdlai: like, i dont know that you'd be a shoo-in
for harvard, but you probably would be a shoo-in for
u of mich or john hopkins
iLikeAdlai: and then you could be a prof at a school
one tier lower cause thats the way it works in 90% of
the cases
she loves jurgen: meh.
iLikeAdlai: its not so bad!
iLikeAdlai: if i get an offer when i graduate from ,
say,
she loves jurgen: its like whatever.
iLikeAdlai: university of illinois-chicago
iLikeAdlai: i'll take it
iLikeAdlai: its a good deal
iLikeAdlai: we can't all be profs at harvard or mcgill
angela:-)
she loves jurgen: yeah
she loves jurgen: but what if i end up at uvic
she loves jurgen: or university of manitoba
iLikeAdlai: haha
she loves jurgen: or somewhere awful with a 10 month
winter
iLikeAdlai: well, you could always find a job in the
states
iLikeAdlai: say in california
iLikeAdlai: and you'd be with the hippies in cali
she loves jurgen: and write shitty papers nobody reads
she loves jurgen: good times.
iLikeAdlai: yes
she loves jurgen: there are hippies at uvic too
iLikeAdlai: true,
iLikeAdlai: so you could be happy in many places
she loves jurgen: not really
iLikeAdlai: plus come on, did you ever expect
people to read your papers?
she loves jurgen: yes
iLikeAdlai: well
iLikeAdlai: i dont:-)
iLikeAdlai: expect them to read mine, that is
she loves jurgen: well theyre about math
iLikeAdlai: i think for each paper that i co-authored,
only about 5 people cared enough about it and only
about 2 per paper actually read
iLikeAdlai: so
iLikeAdlai: yeah
iLikeAdlai: how was your brother "being a little
cunt?"
she loves jurgen: i dunno just being generally irritating
she loves jurgen: saying stupid things
iLikeAdlai: like what
she loves jurgen: i have such a headache right now
iLikeAdlai: awwww
iLikeAdlai: take meds!!!!
she loves jurgen: like the stupid shit he says
she loves jurgen: i cant
she loves jurgen: i drank wine tonight, isnt that bad to
mix?
iLikeAdlai: hmmmm
iLikeAdlai: i dont know
iLikeAdlai: does it say so on the pill box?
she loves jurgen: well its common knowledge dude
iLikeAdlai: do i look like a chemist to you
iLikeAdlai: no
iLikeAdlai: i am a mathematician
she loves jurgen: ha right
she loves jurgen: i just want to break something
iLikeAdlai: so break something
she loves jurgen: i think part of me is a huge asshole
that way
she loves jurgen: well i want to break something with
glass in it
she loves jurgen: but its too noisy
iLikeAdlai: go outside?:-)
she loves jurgen: yeah right
she loves jurgen: and then what do i break
she loves jurgen: i cant break anything of my parents
iLikeAdlai: well, the most satisfying would be a
computer
iLikeAdlai: but
she loves jurgen: i dont want to break anything of mine
iLikeAdlai: then we couldnt talk!
iLikeAdlai: at least, while my cell recharges
she loves jurgen: well give me one of yours
iLikeAdlai: haha
iLikeAdlai: sure;-)
iLikeAdlai: why do you have a headache? cause
your family was loud and noisy and bitchy?
she loves jurgen: i dont know
she loves jurgen: maybe its stress over my stupid
insignificant undergrad paper
iLikeAdlai: maybe
iLikeAdlai: well, you still have plenty of time
iLikeAdlai: maybe not to incorporate much feedback
iLikeAdlai: but certainly to write ti
iLikeAdlai: it
she loves jurgen: sasha im such a loser
she loves jurgen: why cant i just do this like everyone
else
iLikeAdlai: bcause, angela, youre not like everyone
else
iLikeAdlai: you are you
iLikeAdlai: youre unique
she loves jurgen: like everyone else
she loves jurgen: so why cant i just do this
iLikeAdlai: you have problems writing stuff you are
not proud of
she loves jurgen: so thats lame
iLikeAdlai: its not lame
iLikeAdlai: you have your own creative process
iLikeAdlai: don't be pissed off that its difficult
iLikeAdlai: thats the way you are
iLikeAdlai: and its good
she loves jurgen: well i dont like it anyway
iLikeAdlai: heres how its going to happen
iLikeAdlai: deadline will approach
iLikeAdlai: you will panic more and more
iLikeAdlai: and at the end, as it is looming in front of
you, you'll sit down and write something
iLikeAdlai: because you will feel that something is
better than nothing
she loves jurgen: and if i did that it would be shitty
iLikeAdlai: and in the end, you'll have an essay
iLikeAdlai: not necesserily
iLikeAdlai: i don't think how good it is is quite
proportionate to the amount of work spent on it
she loves jurgen: maybe im just a dilettante
iLikeAdlai: stop blaming yourself
iLikeAdlai: well
iLikeAdlai: you have good notes
iLikeAdlai: very thorough
she loves jurgen: eh
she loves jurgen: theyre just notes
iLikeAdlai: but you have your essay there!
she loves jurgen: i dont know about my case study
though
iLikeAdlai: its all there
iLikeAdlai: all the material you need
she loves jurgen: no
she loves jurgen: i need a case study
she loves jurgen: at least one
she loves jurgen: i want to use allende
she loves jurgen: but thats so commie
she loves jurgen: maybe ill use the lebanon-israel
conflicts?
she loves jurgen: haha
she loves jurgen: im so ungraceful when im stressed
iLikeAdlai: see
she loves jurgen: i just noticed im hitting these keys
way harder than necessary
iLikeAdlai: i'd advise against the lebanon israel
conflicts
she loves jurgen: why
iLikeAdlai: because i think theyre bad examples
she loves jurgen: why
iLikeAdlai: well, israel was not a democracy in 1948
iLikeAdlai: thats one thing
she loves jurgen: well it depends who is defining
democracy
iLikeAdlai: the "government" of israel was a loose
coalition of terrorists
iLikeAdlai: there were no elections
she loves jurgen: yeah
she loves jurgen: ok
iLikeAdlai: in any definition of democracy, you need
elections
she loves jurgen: eh
iLikeAdlai: well, whatever, youre the theorist
iLikeAdlai: you can work that one;-)
iLikeAdlai: i'm just sayin
she loves jurgen: eh
iLikeAdlai: eh
she loves jurgen: im not too hot on israel-lebanon
iLikeAdlai: as for 1967
she loves jurgen: the middle east is a fucking disaster
iLikeAdlai: frankly, the fact that lebanon and israel
went to war in 1967 is news to me
she loves jurgen: well not that war
she loves jurgen: no wait it is that one
iLikeAdlai: cause i learned in school it was israel
vs. syria, jordan, and egypt
she loves jurgen: yeah
she loves jurgen: eh
she loves jurgen: thats bruce russett
she loves jurgen: i think hes into dyads
she loves jurgen: so he wont look at wwii in terms of
alliances
iLikeAdlai: dyad -- what a nice word
iLikeAdlai: i like it
iLikeAdlai: do ecuador vs. colombia
she loves jurgen: hes like uk vs germany, uk vs japan,
uk vs italy
iLikeAdlai: its safe
she loves jurgen: no its stupid
iLikeAdlai: roman republic vs. france?
she loves jurgen: like they were actually that
democratic in 63
she loves jurgen: oh yeah like thats a real war
iLikeAdlai: haha
iLikeAdlai: well, i don't like the other ones
she loves jurgen: finland is interesting
iLikeAdlai: well
she loves jurgen: but finland is a lame country
iLikeAdlai: yeah
iLikeAdlai: but
iLikeAdlai: finland is a bad example
iLikeAdlai: because the soviet union attacked it
she loves jurgen: meh
iLikeAdlai: what was it going to do
she loves jurgen: i hate case studies
iLikeAdlai: and by declaring war on the soviet
union, it formally declared became on the other side
of britain and the us...
iLikeAdlai: but formally. i dont think either of those
attacked it.
iLikeAdlai: and like i said, it had little choice after
the soviet attack.
she loves jurgen: but like i said these dorks are into
dyads
iLikeAdlai: haha
iLikeAdlai: yes
she loves jurgen: i mean self defense, sure
she loves jurgen: like the boer war
she loves jurgen: smiling happy democratic 1899 south
africa
iLikeAdlai: you could do boer war
iLikeAdlai: hahaha
she loves jurgen: give me a fucking break russett
she loves jurgen: i think chile is a good example
iLikeAdlai: well, but see
she loves jurgen: but god forbid americans consider
allende democratic
iLikeAdlai: the problem with that is that its not a war
she loves jurgen: and it goes with doty
she loves jurgen: and im totally with these hippies
she loves jurgen: US covert action to overthrow Third
World elected governments shows that force is often
used
by democracies against the extension of democracy. It is
not seen as invalidating the democratic
peace because the US did not use its national military
forces openly, but instead relied on clients,
mercenaries, and covert operatives. In this way,
sovereign juridical conceptions obscure the
actual constitution of force, through imperial advice and
support, and its use in projects of
informal empire.
iLikeAdlai: haha
iLikeAdlai: okay
iLikeAdlai: well
she loves jurgen: i mean theyre on to something
iLikeAdlai: they are on to something
iLikeAdlai: but
she loves jurgen: i know you like to live the lie :-)
iLikeAdlai: haha
iLikeAdlai: well, no
iLikeAdlai: the us did overthrow democratically
elected goverments
iLikeAdlai: when they showed the slightest whiff of
nationalizing crap and liking the soviet union
iLikeAdlai: i do not dispute this
iLikeAdlai: its a fact
iLikeAdlai: but
iLikeAdlai: ok, you had one sentence in there about
this topic
iLikeAdlai: "the focus of their debate is inter-state
wars, they fail to appraise the significance of civil
wars, guerrilla movements, etc."
she loves jurgen: pinochet was good for
overpopulation?
iLikeAdlai: it just doesn't seem to me to relate to
democratic peace
iLikeAdlai: yes, guerilla movements and covert
operatives are important
iLikeAdlai: yes its a very narrow focus
she loves jurgen: well the democratic peace is
undermined
iLikeAdlai: but its a very specific
proposition...democracies do not start wars with
each other...
she loves jurgen: cos that raises the question if the
nature of military policy is changed in a democracy
iLikeAdlai: no one claimed that democracies do not
try to overthrow each others governments covertly
she loves jurgen: well surely that negates a democratic
peace
iLikeAdlai: depends
iLikeAdlai: war requires a much greater sacrifice
she loves jurgen: eh
iLikeAdlai: gotta mobilize the public
she loves jurgen: it requires 1000 deaths
she loves jurgen: according to the correlates of war
database
she loves jurgen: which is russetts guideline, and i
believe doyles as well
she loves jurgen: i love layne.
iLikeAdlai: well, you need a definition
iLikeAdlai: 1000 is arbitrary but you gotta pick
something
she loves jurgen: eh
she loves jurgen: that doesnt make it good
iLikeAdlai: nope
iLikeAdlai: youre quantifying the unquantifiable
she loves jurgen: i dont know
iLikeAdlai: but still, you need a definition
she loves jurgen: i think im going to write this essay
robert coxlike
iLikeAdlai: okay, i've never read anything by robert
cox
iLikeAdlai: so what does that mean?
she loves jurgen: and say this theory was created to
suit the purpose of making democracies feel good about
themselves
she loves jurgen: and possibly legitimize the use of
force
iLikeAdlai: its all there in your notes:-)
she loves jurgen: by making it seem democracies are
exercising some self-restraint unparalleled by any other
group of sovereign actors in history
she loves jurgen: what is?
iLikeAdlai: the thesis,
iLikeAdlai: the outlines,
iLikeAdlai: the arguments
iLikeAdlai: i think you have enough
iLikeAdlai: well, with some extra bullshit
she loves jurgen: but its disjointed!!!
she loves jurgen: and i dont have a case study
she loves jurgen: its not all together yet
iLikeAdlai: yeah, the case study is a tough one
she loves jurgen: sasha im fucked
iLikeAdlai: well
iLikeAdlai: okay, but you have to admit
she loves jurgen: what
iLikeAdlai: even though you'll argue that it was
created to help democracies feel good about
themselves
iLikeAdlai: the evidence against it -- the candidate
wars between democracies -- is generally
unimpressive
she loves jurgen: hahaha
she loves jurgen: see thats the thing
she loves jurgen: maybe im retarded
iLikeAdlai: but see
she loves jurgen: but i think dotys is the most accurate
reading of democratic peace theory
iLikeAdlai: i skipped over that last part on doty
she loves jurgen: why
she loves jurgen: was it too conventialist
iLikeAdlai: 1. its long
iLikeAdlai: 2. seven elements?
she loves jurgen: what
iLikeAdlai: why couldnt he come up with one or two?
she loves jurgen: its a she
iLikeAdlai: seven is too many!!!!
she loves jurgen: well theyre all correlated
iLikeAdlai: the first one is "nodal points"
she loves jurgen: so
iLikeAdlai: with a name like that
iLikeAdlai: i decided to skip:-)
she loves jurgen: shut up :-)
she loves jurgen: its good!!!!
iLikeAdlai: nodal points help to affirm the identity of
the ‘self’ in relation to the ‘other’, while negating the
identity of the ‘other’ in relation to the ‘self’
she loves jurgen: youre the science person
iLikeAdlai: my eyes were glued to the page;-)
she loves jurgen: im the one who is supposed to crap
my pants every time i see words like 'nodal'
iLikeAdlai: it sounds too theoretical for me
iLikeAdlai: now
iLikeAdlai: see
iLikeAdlai: you might think math and science are
hard
iLikeAdlai: but math is written in the simplest
possible terms imaginable
she loves jurgen: but its a simple concept
iLikeAdlai: this theory stuff sometimes reads like its
written to confuse
she loves jurgen: all the nodal points thing boils down
to is 'us or them'
she loves jurgen: dubya loves using nodal points
iLikeAdlai: then why not explain that using really
simple language with examples
she loves jurgen: in dpt the nodal points are the
definitions of democracy and limiting war as inter-state
conflict only
iLikeAdlai: i don't get how that amounts to us or
them
iLikeAdlai: but
she loves jurgen: well in terms of concepts
iLikeAdlai: youve made me interested. i'll bug you
about this next time we talk when its not 3 am
she loves jurgen: right.
iLikeAdlai: well
she loves jurgen: im tired too, i dont know whether to
work on this or sleep
iLikeAdlai: who was it that wrote that a bunch of
democratic countries can keep the peace between
themselves indefinetily? was it fukuyama, the end of
history?
she loves jurgen: hes one of them, yes
she loves jurgen: the end of history thesis
iLikeAdlai: i see. well, i'm glad i didnt buy the book
then;-)
she loves jurgen: doyle says this too
she loves jurgen: doyles a little bastard
iLikeAdlai: haha
she loves jurgen: he started all this bullshit!!!!
iLikeAdlai: haha
iLikeAdlai: come on angela
she loves jurgen: seriously he did
iLikeAdlai: it has a whiff of truth to it
she loves jurgen: im not blaming kant
iLikeAdlai: it seems like its true as far as inter-state
war is concerned -- that narrow focus
she loves jurgen: doyle misread kant and popularized
his stupid interpretation of the perpetual peace theory
she loves jurgen: well no
she loves jurgen: i think this dpt shit is self-serving for
democracies
iLikeAdlai: but a bunch of democratic countries
could still fuck each other up with covert operations,
guerilla wars, wahtever
she loves jurgen: yeah
she loves jurgen: or screw with whoever they dont
consider a democracy
iLikeAdlai: well, but you have to admit the thesis
seems true though in its narrow form
she loves jurgen: i mean each democratic peace
theorist has their own hierarchy of elements of
democracy
iLikeAdlai: in the sense of the counterexamples
being unimpressive.
she loves jurgen: yeah but how long have we had
democracy
iLikeAdlai: yeah, not long
iLikeAdlai: theres still time:-)
she loves jurgen: falklands?
iLikeAdlai: argentina was ruled by a junta
she loves jurgen: eh like it was any worse than imperial
germany
iLikeAdlai: it probably wasnt
iLikeAdlai: but imperial germany was not very
democratic either
she loves jurgen: eh its on the list
iLikeAdlai: which is why the list is
unimpressive:-)
iLikeAdlai: anyway,
iLikeAdlai: what you said before is true
iLikeAdlai: if you think about it
iLikeAdlai: most of the major players on the global
stage became democracies after wwii
iLikeAdlai: they happenned to be united in opposing
the soviet union until '90
iLikeAdlai: so they only existed for 14 years since
then
iLikeAdlai: not really enough time to make much
judgements
she loves jurgen: well heres the math part
she loves jurgen: there are 60 or so democracies
she loves jurgen: but that doesnt matter as much as
how many pairs of democracies there are right
iLikeAdlai: hmmm
she loves jurgen: and russett says whats significant is
there were 3-4 wars between democratic dyads when
there were 60 of them back in the 1800s
iLikeAdlai: thats 1500 pairs angela:-)
she loves jurgen: yeah
she loves jurgen: with only a few wars
she loves jurgen: and thats his case for why the dpt is
soooo true
she loves jurgen: and he gives 1800 as a number
iLikeAdlai: statistically, its not very convincing
she loves jurgen: really
she loves jurgen: 1-2 out of 1800 seems good to me
she loves jurgen: why not to you
iLikeAdlai: well
iLikeAdlai: its not a very big sample
she loves jurgen: well its all we have!
iLikeAdlai: i mean
iLikeAdlai: ok, how about this
iLikeAdlai: one of the first things you learn in a
general engineering class
iLikeAdlai: is that estimating rare events is tricky
iLikeAdlai: they like to do this thing
she loves jurgen: ok i found some other stats you might
find interesting
iLikeAdlai: they have this big jar of m & ms
she loves jurgen: yes
iLikeAdlai: m&m 's are small, so theres like a few
thousand of them in the jar
she loves jurgen: do you get to win the jar?
iLikeAdlai: and one of the things they do is they
give everyone a small sample
iLikeAdlai: (haha, no, you don't. they keep the jar)
she loves jurgen: well do you get to eat your sample
iLikeAdlai: and then ask you to estimate the
distribution of colors in the jar (like 50% yellow, 25%
blue, etc)
iLikeAdlai: based on your sample
iLikeAdlai: no!
iLikeAdlai: you do not!!
she loves jurgen: what!!!
iLikeAdlai: you have to give it back
she loves jurgen: we got to eat ours in grade 4 when
we did probability with smarties
iLikeAdlai: haha
iLikeAdlai: congratulations
she loves jurgen: and the thing with smarties is they
come in more colours
iLikeAdlai: anyway
she loves jurgen: anyway
iLikeAdlai: if a couple of the colors are really rare...
iLikeAdlai: your estimates of them are driven
largely by luck
she loves jurgen: yes
iLikeAdlai: if there are 3 red ones out of a thousand,
whether you draw 0 or 1 or 2 or 3 is mostly luck
iLikeAdlai: however
iLikeAdlai: if there are 500 blue ones out of a
thousand
iLikeAdlai: then you are more or less guaranteed
that in your sample about half will be blue
iLikeAdlai: if the sample is not really small
iLikeAdlai: the point is, wars are rare events
she loves jurgen: they have blue m&ms??
iLikeAdlai: don't they?
iLikeAdlai: they have them in tv commercials
iLikeAdlai: i dont eat m&ms
she loves jurgen: i thought they were red, yellow,
green, orange, light brown, and dark brown?
iLikeAdlai: don't like colored candy
iLikeAdlai: haha
iLikeAdlai: sounds like you know more about it than
I do
she loves jurgen: and thats why smarties are better, cos
they have pink
iLikeAdlai: haha
iLikeAdlai: no doubt
iLikeAdlai: so, wars are rare
she loves jurgen: well
iLikeAdlai: so you need a really big sample to
estimate them
she loves jurgen: heres the war table
iLikeAdlai: okay
she loves jurgen: ok... so the highest level of dispute
being 'no dispute', we have 3 864 for the democratic
dyads
iLikeAdlai: ok, wait
she loves jurgen: and 24 503 for the one or both states
non-democratic dyads
she loves jurgen: this is between 1946-1986
iLikeAdlai: are we considering all possible pairs of
democracies?
she loves jurgen: apparently
iLikeAdlai: and all possible pairs of
non-democracies?
iLikeAdlai: hmmm
iLikeAdlai: that makes no sense
iLikeAdlai: why not consider neighbours?
she loves jurgen: well and democracies with non
democracies
she loves jurgen: because youre bruce russett and you
come up with this shit
iLikeAdlai: i mean, you said it yourself, greece and
canada won't go to war
iLikeAdlai: even if they wanted to
she loves jurgen: even though i think greeks are
wankers
iLikeAdlai: haha
iLikeAdlai: yes
iLikeAdlai: that seems to make more sense
iLikeAdlai: anyway
iLikeAdlai: fine
iLikeAdlai: lets say we consider all possible pairs
iLikeAdlai: "24 503 for the one or both states
non-democratic dyads"
iLikeAdlai: i don't understand
iLikeAdlai: 24,503 no disputes?
she loves jurgen: pairings with at least one
non-democratic
she loves jurgen: yes
she loves jurgen: ok now moving on to threat of force
as the highest level of dispute
iLikeAdlai: so 24,503 pairs of democracies and
non-democracies had no dispute?
she loves jurgen: we have 2 for the democratic dyads
and 39 for the crazy motherfuckers
iLikeAdlai: or non-democracies and
non-democracies in that question
she loves jurgen: at least one is non-democratic
she loves jurgen: so its either a democracy and a
non-democracy
iLikeAdlai: never knew there was that much lovin
going on
iLikeAdlai: continue
she loves jurgen: or two non-democracies
she loves jurgen: ok
she loves jurgen: now for display of force
she loves jurgen: 4 for democratic dyads, 116 for the
others
she loves jurgen: use of force is 8 vs 513
she loves jurgen: war is 0 vs 32
she loves jurgen: now he has some percentages called
escalation probabilities
she loves jurgen: is this boring as all hell?
she loves jurgen: wouldnt you rather not be listening to
this?
iLikeAdlai: no!!!!
iLikeAdlai: its not boring as hell
iLikeAdlai: i'm interested
iLikeAdlai: please, continue
she loves jurgen: well most people arent
iLikeAdlai: dude, i'm a nerd
she loves jurgen: yeah but this shit is hardcore
iLikeAdlai: well, i'm a hardcore nerd then;-)
iLikeAdlai: and it has to do with math too
iLikeAdlai: how can i not be interested
she loves jurgen: haha
she loves jurgen: ok
she loves jurgen: so escalation probabilities
she loves jurgen: to threat of force: democratics get
.05% and others get .16%
she loves jurgen: to display of force: democracies
85.7%, others 94.4%
she loves jurgen: now i dont get this
she loves jurgen: it explains it in chapter 4
she loves jurgen: but with more equations
she loves jurgen: and i got pissed off
iLikeAdlai: haha
she loves jurgen: russett is a loser
iLikeAdlai: whats the book title?
iLikeAdlai: and full name of the author?
she loves jurgen: grasping the democratic peace, bruce
russett
iLikeAdlai: and who is the book published by?
she loves jurgen: princeton up
she loves jurgen: 1993
iLikeAdlai: ah, no, elibrary doesnt have it
iLikeAdlai: well, okay
iLikeAdlai: anyway,
iLikeAdlai: he lists probabilities
iLikeAdlai: and theyre higher for the
non-democracies
she loves jurgen: eh
iLikeAdlai: it sounds suspicious
she loves jurgen: i find russett is retarded
iLikeAdlai: because its too good to be true
iLikeAdlai: i mean
iLikeAdlai: .16%
iLikeAdlai: ?
she loves jurgen: it looks like reflexive bullshit
democracies come up with
iLikeAdlai: i'm glad his methods are precise enough
that he reports his percentages to the second
decimal
she loves jurgen: hahaha
she loves jurgen: that sounded so geek snob
iLikeAdlai: well, seriously
iLikeAdlai: if i tell you that
iLikeAdlai: 7.134985% of my cell phone bill comes
from calls to tucson, arizona
iLikeAdlai: that means
iLikeAdlai: i did a calculation
iLikeAdlai: i counted
she loves jurgen: ok
iLikeAdlai: and each number is to six decimal
places
iLikeAdlai: if your accuracy is like 5%, you shouldnt
report two digits after the decimal point
she loves jurgen: why
iLikeAdlai: well, does it really matter to you that the
right answer 7.27% plus or minus 5%?
iLikeAdlai: how is that different from 7.3 plus or
minus 5%
iLikeAdlai: or from 7 plus or minus 5 %
iLikeAdlai: those two decimal points look like they
give you extra information
she loves jurgen: right
iLikeAdlai: and they do not
she loves jurgen: that makes sense
iLikeAdlai: well
iLikeAdlai: his methods sound really imprecise
iLikeAdlai: i mean
iLikeAdlai: how do you classify "display of force"
and "threat of force" so accurately
iLikeAdlai: and how can he be sure he covered all
possible conflicts between all possible pairs of
nations?
iLikeAdlai: if you don't mind, i'll use "pairs of
nations" instead of "dyads";-)
she loves jurgen: come on
iLikeAdlai: maybe ethiopia and argentina
threatened force against each other in 1938 and he
never knew about it
she loves jurgen: thats the word poli sci came up with
to make it sound exciting
she loves jurgen: thats conspiracy theory
iLikeAdlai: haha
iLikeAdlai: well
iLikeAdlai: i bet if i undertook a study
iLikeAdlai: i could find appropriate definitions for
"war" and "democracy"
iLikeAdlai: and appropriate time period
she loves jurgen: yeah
she loves jurgen: cottage industry
iLikeAdlai: and appropriate ways to classify
countries into "threat of force" and "display of force"
iLikeAdlai: to make the conclusion come out the
other way
iLikeAdlai: that democratic countries are worse off
she loves jurgen: and with a name like yours theyd
expect the publication date to be cold war era...
iLikeAdlai: haha
iLikeAdlai: i have a quote from freeman dyson for
you:
iLikeAdlai: In desperation I asked Fermi whether he
was not impressed by the agreement between our
calculated numbers and his measured numbers. He
replied, "How many arbitrary parameters did you
use for your calculations?" I thought for a moment
about our cut-off procedures and said, "Four." He
said, "I remember my friend Johnny von Neumann
used to say, with four parameters I can fit an
elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his
trunk."
she loves jurgen: haha
she loves jurgen: we have a lot of trunk wiggling in poli
sci
iLikeAdlai: so all these things -- whats war, whats
democracy, whats display of force, whats a threat of
force, what time period to use -- are totally arbitrary!
iLikeAdlai: yeah
iLikeAdlai: you know what you should do!
she loves jurgen: what
iLikeAdlai: spend the summer fiddling with data
iLikeAdlai: and write a paper that has the
conclusion come out the other way
she loves jurgen: how about you fiddle with the data
iLikeAdlai: haha
she loves jurgen: ill write the paper
iLikeAdlai: its not my field:-)
iLikeAdlai: well
she loves jurgen: well positivist social science isnt mine
either
iLikeAdlai: you don't need to know any math!
iLikeAdlai: you could go like this:
she loves jurgen: well im crap with arithmetic too
iLikeAdlai: start out by compiling a big table of all
the conflicts
iLikeAdlai: and the countries they involved and
everything
iLikeAdlai: then pick the time period that has the
most democracies fighting
iLikeAdlai: then pick a definition of democracy that
makes most of the countries fighting democracies
iLikeAdlai: pick a definition of war so that most of
the democracies went to war
iLikeAdlai: etc
iLikeAdlai: and present your definitions as if you
came up with them first
iLikeAdlai: and then went to the data
iLikeAdlai: and viola
she loves jurgen: hahaha
iLikeAdlai: you have EMPIRICAL PROOF that the
theory is false
she loves jurgen: include football hooliganery
she loves jurgen: and englands going to war with
democracies every bloody summer
iLikeAdlai: and you can't argue with EMPIRICAL
PROOF
she loves jurgen: well you can if youre a postmodern
theorist
iLikeAdlai: haha, okay, maybe you can
she loves jurgen: cos youre all 'whatever, positivists.'
she loves jurgen: and you dont have time for
metanarratives
iLikeAdlai: haha
iLikeAdlai: yes
iLikeAdlai: being postmodern is fun, isnt ti
iLikeAdlai: it
she loves jurgen: you know it
she loves jurgen: its harder
she loves jurgen: cos you cant just sit around and live
the lie
she loves jurgen: or have a one-track mind
iLikeAdlai: oh come on
iLikeAdlai: thats not true
iLikeAdlai: see
she loves jurgen: well ok
she loves jurgen: if youre going to be a shitty one
iLikeAdlai: i think empirical studies do have a lot to
offer if they are done in good faith
she loves jurgen: and not deconstruct anything well
iLikeAdlai: i mean
iLikeAdlai: if you come to the question without a
hidden agenda
iLikeAdlai: and commit yourself to a real study of
the world
she loves jurgen: political scientists rarely have hidden
agendas
iLikeAdlai: yet your essay is that there is a hidden
agenda behind dp
she loves jurgen: i was being sarcastic
she loves jurgen: political anything has a hidden agenda
iLikeAdlai: see, you need to use <sarcasm> tags
iLikeAdlai: cause i thought you were serious
iLikeAdlai: and i thought, wtf
she loves jurgen: foucault is a bastard for articulating
the obvious like that and getting all that credit
iLikeAdlai: well, okay
iLikeAdlai: so were human
iLikeAdlai: and we always have agendas
she loves jurgen: well watch out there
iLikeAdlai: but not all of us have the same agenda
she loves jurgen: cos some people dont buy human
nature arguments
she loves jurgen: everyone is after power apparently
iLikeAdlai: if we all commit ourselves to being
impartial....and put our arguments out there
iLikeAdlai: the final consensus is bound to be close
to the truth
she loves jurgen: thats js mill
she loves jurgen: and id agree
iLikeAdlai: well
she loves jurgen: but theory is always for someone and
to serve some purpose
iLikeAdlai: i was never convinced by j.s. mill
iLikeAdlai: :-)
iLikeAdlai: but i think its different with academics
she loves jurgen: but thats what js mill said
iLikeAdlai: because we all undergo academic
training
she loves jurgen: not really
iLikeAdlai: and that can teach us to be impartial
she loves jurgen: eh
she loves jurgen: in poli sci all my profs are obvious
iLikeAdlai: true, its not like that in poli sci
iLikeAdlai: at the moment
iLikeAdlai: but i'm optimistic
she loves jurgen: i see
iLikeAdlai: anyway, i'm not trying to attack theory,
she loves jurgen: i dont think you are
iLikeAdlai: only saying that empirical stuff can be
useful too, if its done in good faith
she loves jurgen: i think youre too generous to theory
iLikeAdlai: really?
iLikeAdlai: am i?
iLikeAdlai: why?
she loves jurgen: haha ok
she loves jurgen: youre too generous to theorists
she loves jurgen: i think theyre always motivated by
something
she loves jurgen: usually not the general will
she loves jurgen: whatever that is
she loves jurgen: and a lot of political theory is founded
on how the theorist already perceives things
she loves jurgen: and though constructivism was meant
to counter that
she loves jurgen: most shit we are seeing is still
neoliberal-neorealist consensus
she loves jurgen: which is bullshit cos really theyre two
sides of the same coin more than a bridge between
ideologies
iLikeAdlai: interesting
she loves jurgen: like westerners advancing their
perspective as a synthesis between their two former
factions
iLikeAdlai: well
she loves jurgen: well neoliberalism uses economics
and neorealism uses force but the underlying message of
both theories is go ahead and make them do it your way,
and keep a relative advantage at all times
iLikeAdlai: all scientists are like this in many ways i
think
she loves jurgen: and why dont you like the word dyad
iLikeAdlai: its not something thats unique to poli sci
theory
iLikeAdlai: because
iLikeAdlai: i believe in making things as simple as
possible
iLikeAdlai: when you say dyad, i think of greek
nymphs
she loves jurgen: why!
iLikeAdlai: why not use "pairs of countries"
iLikeAdlai: because,
she loves jurgen: cos a dyad is a pair
she loves jurgen: in the dictionary it says that first
iLikeAdlai: well, a dryad is a forest nymph
she loves jurgen: well like that has anything to do with
this!
iLikeAdlai: haha
she loves jurgen: you just have to stop thinking about
forest nymphs
iLikeAdlai: but why use a complicated word when
you can use a simple one?
she loves jurgen: its not complicated
she loves jurgen: four letters
iLikeAdlai: (that'll be hard angela:-))
iLikeAdlai: its more complicated than "pair of
countries"
she loves jurgen: no
iLikeAdlai: yes
she loves jurgen: looking up a word never killed
anyone
iLikeAdlai: ok, but why do you want to make people
look up words
she loves jurgen: is my writing generally fluid?
iLikeAdlai: why not have them understand you with
the vocabulary they've got
iLikeAdlai: youre writing is fluid
she loves jurgen: to make up for how much i use my
thesaurus when i write
iLikeAdlai: your
iLikeAdlai: haha
iLikeAdlai: come on:-)
she loves jurgen: cos i always want the best word
possible
she loves jurgen: that conveys the right nuances
iLikeAdlai: well, this is true in writing
iLikeAdlai: but in speaking?
she loves jurgen: im worried my writing is stupid
she loves jurgen: speaking is the same thing
iLikeAdlai: i believe in what einstein said: "things
should be made as simple as possible, but not
simpler."
she loves jurgen: right
iLikeAdlai: dyad can be simplified:-)
she loves jurgen: no
she loves jurgen: i like it
she loves jurgen: plus you have to be dumb as hell not
to figure out what it means
she loves jurgen: if we are talking about wars
she loves jurgen: and it sounds like its a pair from the
word anyway
iLikeAdlai: true
iLikeAdlai: but still, why make the listener work
even a little bit harder
she loves jurgen: and how am i supposed to know you
get distracted by words that almost say dryad
she loves jurgen: because
iLikeAdlai: well, doesnt everyone?
iLikeAdlai: :-(;-)
iLikeAdlai: typo, should only be a wink there
she loves jurgen: i appreciate it when people use
precise diction
iLikeAdlai: i appreciate it when people get their
ideas across in an understandable manner
iLikeAdlai: isn't the point of writing and speaking to
be understood?
she loves jurgen: yes
iLikeAdlai: precise diction should not be an end in
itself
she loves jurgen: and diction helps you be really
understood
iLikeAdlai: haha, well, we'll agree to disagree:-)
iLikeAdlai: do you still have your headache?
she loves jurgen: yes
iLikeAdlai: i'm sorry
she loves jurgen: its like in the corner of my head
iLikeAdlai: that sucks
she loves jurgen: right above my eye
iLikeAdlai: ugh, i hate those
she loves jurgen: i need a massage slave
iLikeAdlai: it especially sucks when it stops you
from falling asleep
iLikeAdlai: haha
iLikeAdlai: ah, well, too bad i'm not there
she loves jurgen: awww youd be my massage slave?
iLikeAdlai: yes
she loves jurgen: you know i wouldnt do it if i were
you
iLikeAdlai: why not?
she loves jurgen: ill probably lie about other things
hurting
iLikeAdlai: haha
iLikeAdlai: hey, i don't mind giving a massage:-)
she loves jurgen: well im also difficult
she loves jurgen: in that a lot of things make me scream
she loves jurgen: like it feels really good
iLikeAdlai: haha
she loves jurgen: but i cant help it, its like some kind of
reflex
iLikeAdlai: are they good screams?
she loves jurgen: hahaha theyre annoying
she loves jurgen: my friends hate it cos it makes them
feel like torturers
iLikeAdlai: haha
iLikeAdlai: now that just makes me curious
iLikeAdlai: i need to give you massage in real life
angela
she loves jurgen: yeah to hear me flip out
iLikeAdlai: yes
iLikeAdlai: it would be fascinating
she loves jurgen: like it hurts so i have to scream, but it
feels good at the same time
she loves jurgen: why dont people understand this
iLikeAdlai: well
iLikeAdlai: i think i'd be good at understanding
iLikeAdlai: after all
iLikeAdlai: i'm into spanking,
she loves jurgen: im also constantly being told i have an
obscene amount of knots in my back
iLikeAdlai: so i'm intimately familiar with the
concept of good pain
she loves jurgen: well theres good pain too, but this is
different
iLikeAdlai: this is more like pain combined with
good feeling
she loves jurgen: yes
she loves jurgen: whereas good pain is enjoying the
feeling of pain for what it is
she loves jurgen: at least for me
iLikeAdlai: yeah
she loves jurgen: when im stressed i like pain
iLikeAdlai: any pain?
she loves jurgen: well preferably good pain
iLikeAdlai: but bad pain too?
she loves jurgen: haha not really
iLikeAdlai: thats good to hear
she loves jurgen: i dont consider myself masochistic
she loves jurgen: just into variety
iLikeAdlai: variety is good
iLikeAdlai: couldn't agree with you more
she loves jurgen: and i think i have a strange sense of
touch
iLikeAdlai: how so?
she loves jurgen: well a symptom of add is like
sensitivity to touch
she loves jurgen: other people combing my hair drives
me crazy
iLikeAdlai: really
iLikeAdlai: how so
she loves jurgen: it feels sooo weird!
she loves jurgen: and it hurts so much if they hit a
tangle
she loves jurgen: which is rather common with my hair
iLikeAdlai: can it feel good
she loves jurgen: if theyre gentle
iLikeAdlai: awww
iLikeAdlai: interesting
iLikeAdlai: well, i'll bug you more about it tomorrow.
i need to go sleep
she loves jurgen: this one girl i worked with in ottawa
used to make me brush her hair and tie it back for her all
the time
she loves jurgen: cos she said i was freakishly gentle
about it
she loves jurgen: yes you do
she loves jurgen: its so late for you
she loves jurgen: i shouldnt keep you up like this
iLikeAdlai: awww
iLikeAdlai: youre not "keeping me up"
iLikeAdlai: i stay talking to you cause its really
interesting and i like it
she loves jurgen: well i dont know, maybe youre just
being nice
iLikeAdlai: no
iLikeAdlai: i'm not just being nice
iLikeAdlai: i'm being honest
she loves jurgen: ok
she loves jurgen: well, you sleep soundly sasha :-)
iLikeAdlai: ;-)
iLikeAdlai: bye, angela:-)
