So on to basketball! Once the SFL is over, you will be ready to apply your newly formed knowledge into a winning draft. But, once again I warn you: do NOT rely on the crap put out in those "fantasy" sections of the national magazines. They do a fine job (in most cases) of analyzing the teams for "real" basketball, but the stiffs they get to write their fantasy section would finish 11th in a 10 team league! You don’t believe me? How about this: Pick up Lindy’s 1998-99 Pro Basketball annual and turn to the back. They have a section written by Jim Moore. In it, he even questions why Lindy’s has had him write this for the last four years (something many of us has asked). His writing and player analysis is not really bad, although he uses some of MY points I made in my article I wrote for my newsletter LAST YEAR. But his player rating for the most part are OK. I would differ on a few based on the categories, but at least it is not embarrassing. That, however, can not be said for the ratings on page 180 by some "geek" named Scott Sutton. I use a computer and formulas for my ratings. Most serious players do. But there is not ONE rating system in the world that would come up with the horrible rankings this guy does. Let me give you a few "rankings". While I have a small problem with Kevin Garnett being #1 (he is close), that pales to the following: Kerry Kittles #15, AC Green #47, Ron Harper #55, Ron Mercer #57, Glen Rice #59, Robert Horry #63, Ty Corbin #80, Ray Allen #85, Kevin Willis #90, Shawn Kemp #96 (does he lose major points for having so many illegitimate kids?). Excuse me, I am still looking for a category that Harper and Mercer beat Rice in. Or how Horry, Corbin, Green and Willis could all out-rate Kemp. Of course, I have Ray Allen ranked ahead of Kittles, but I would not be adverse to some system that uses different categories reversing them…but SEVENTY places difference? Did anyone review this? Is this guy really in a league? I would pay his entry fee to get him into any league I was in. And for this year’s "Preview Sports Basketball Annual", the guy writing the "Best in the Biz" article called Kerry Kittles a "6-footer who has trouble when posted up by taller (6-5) guards". Well, now I wonder if they bother getting anyone who even follows basketball to write since we all know Kerry Kittles is 6-5 or 6-6, depending on what source you use. Once again I ask "does anyone edit these articles"? DO NOT DEPEND ON THEM.
In our league, and in the "professional" money leagues I play in that advertise in the magazines, they use the normal 8 categories as follows: Total points, rebounds, assists, steals, blocks, 3-point baskets made, FG% and FT%. Six cumulative and 2 percentage. Some leagues use free throws made rather than percentage, but we felt that was a very redundant category, and it seems more fair to punish Shaq for missing so many than to reward him again for making a few when he takes so many (he already gains in total points when he makes a free throw). Some leagues also use additional categories like turnovers, offensive rebounds and even personal fouls, but I will stick to the main 8 when analyzing a player.
We also use a draft and not an auction. I have used auctions in baseball throughout the years, but I enjoy the draft in basketball. My friend over at the USA Today’s Basketball "Rotisserie Chicken" Web Site, Chris Colston, seems to scoff at a draft over an auction, but he is in a "foul" mood and has his "feathers" in an uproar over nothing. Drafts can be very challenging and full of drama and strategy. Why, in an auction, just make sure you spend money to get some steals and 3’s after buying Shaq. In the draft, after you take Shaq and give up free throw percentage, you have to scramble to try to recover steals and 3’s while maybe passing players that would have been better to take, but you were lagging from the Shaq pick. But then, in the league our fine egg-laying buddy is in only uses 5 categories and 3-pointers and free throw percentage aren’t in them. Seems like a "weak league" to me Mr. Foghorn Leghorn (smile). Oh, and in a draft, you never get the same players year-to-year as you draft in different spots. "Give Me Draft Or Give Me SFL"!
Let’s talk strategy in a draft. As last year’s "Draft Day" letter talked about such items as "No Old Guys", "Go Big/Small in the 1st Two Rounds" and "Watch Out for Traded Players", I want to mention some other tricks of the trade.
The point is, this type of attack on a scarce product can cause panic. Here is my secret plan for this year if Jordan retires: Since I pick 10th and 11th, I will take Tim Hardaway and Allan Iverson (the "block" boys good enough to rate there are gone). At that point, only one other team has a point guard (Payton) and panic will set in. And I not only took 2 point guards, back-to-back, but they get lots of steals, score, hit 3’s and have decent percentages (except Iverson’s stinking free throws). So, before I get my pick in the 3rd round (number 29), everyone will have to be grabbing point guards so they don’t get shut out. The ones they grab will be not quite as good as my two, and will likely leave me a stud big man or two for snaking. That is 8 other teams forced to take a point guard in rounds 2 and 3 with one less available (I would take Tim Hardaway at 11 to go with Olajuwon at 10 if Jordan plays this year). But you see how one less "scarce" player taken early can cause a panic. Point guards (especially ones that hit 3’s and score) and big men who block shots, get steals and score are so valuable. That is back to our "Big/Small rule".
Big Step-Up’s (the "Michael Finley" status) for: Eric Williams (a real "Nugget", he was on this last year and would have been correct except for the injury). Expect him to be a steal this year. Toni Kukoc. With the caveat that Jordan and Pippen leave. "Pink" Floyd is Krause’s guy and Krause loves Toni. Besides, without Jordan and Pippen, this is a bad team and someone has to score. Antonio Davis. Bird is likely to start Antonio over Dale to get more offense, and with Reggie and Mullin getting older and Smits getting stiffer, Antonio will have a big year. Steve Nash. One magazine said Dallas got ripped-off in this trade. No way. Nash will give you great point guard stats and will be a top-10 point guard by the end of the year.
Big Improvement’s (the "Lamond Murray" status) for: Brian Grant. His problem isn’t his talent, but getting to play where he belongs, at power forward. Rasheed Wallace gets in his way and Rider and Wallace aren’t exactly team players. Portland would be better off with Grant at PF and Sabonis at center with Wallace traded. Lorenzen Wright. He went to Pete Newell’s Big Man Camp this year. Last year Lamond Murray went. Also, Lorenzen was outstanding last year before he got hurt and the Clips got Ike Austin. Then Bill "worst coach of the last decade" Fitch decided to sit Wright and stunt any progress he could make so that Austin could improve his fortune on the free agent market. Did Bill Fitch EVER develop a player with the Clippers? Or did he just run them all out of town due to his lack of patience? Eric Piatkowski. I can’t believe I am recommending 2 Clippers! But Eric was huge after Barry was traded. He hit 3’s all day and really is the Clips only threat out there. Give him the minutes and he will hit them. Only problem will be if they move Murray to guard. Kerry Kittles. I like this kid a lot. He will get better and better. Steals, 3’s, scoring. And will be underrated in all drafts. Hakeem Olajuwon and Penny Hardaway. Two veterans who had terrible years but are proud and hard-working people. Both will, no question, come back to a 20-point plus scoring average and give you great other stats. These guys have the talent and drive to succeed, unlike too many others in the league. Get them at a bargain price or pick that you never would have gotten them in the past. Newell’s Big Man Camp Note: Also in attendance were Sean Elliott, Adonal Foyle, and rookies Olawokandi and Traylor. While I am not enamored with Elliott or Foyle, that does say something about their work ethic and Elliott has had some success in the past. Just watch them and see. As for the rookies, I will discuss them later.
Huge Drop’s (the "Kendall Gill" status) for: Lamond Murray. Had a huge year but there is too much other talent there this year for him to do that again. Allan Houston. Of course, with Ewing back, Allan will disappear. It is a shame because his game is so sweet. Detlef Schrempf. Age will catch up with him this year, big time. Kendall Gill. I predicted him last year and was right, but it will get worse this year IF he stays with New Jersey. Not that he can’t play, but they have too much talent for him to get those stats.
Rookie Secrets: Larry Hughes (Phil). My biggest tip. Iverson can’t score 75 a night, no matter how hard he tries. Someone has to score. This kid will shine and be super. No doubt about it, take him and laugh at the other players who haven’t even heard of him. Robert "Tractor" Traylor (Mil). I was not a believer in this fat lump at draft time. But he lost weight and went to the Big Man’s Camp. He seems willing to work and if Brandon leaves, his scoring can go up. Of course, it will help if Big Dog Robinson will share the ball. Jason Williams (Kings). If they don’t sign Corliss Williamson, this team is Chris Webber and the 11 dwarfs. It will be horrible. Eleven wins would be a good season. But someone has to play and this kid can. Of course, he may get caught in the parking lot with Webber smoking a joint. But if he keeps his head on, he will be exciting.
Be Careful of: Scottie Pippen. If he leaves the Bulls, his stats may not be as good as before (the "Change Team" rule). At least not as good as you expect them when you take him that high. Also, his back surgery in the off season makes him too risky for me. Keith Van Horn. Actually, I like him a lot for long term, but there is too much talent on New Jersey for him to dominate yet. Kerry Kittles is going to improve big time, and Sam Cassell likes to score. Throw in Gill, Gatling, Jason Williams (who has bulked up even stronger) and a full year from Seikaly, and Keith baby can’t improve that much, this year.
Over Rated Stiffs: Ike Austin. I can’t begin to tell you how bad this guy is (at least in REAL life basketball). He came to the Clippers for Brent Barry, was given the center job and told he would be the MAN on the team. He proceeded to shoot 45%, show he had hands of stone on any ball thrown to him, look like he was so out of shape in the middle of the season he couldn’t run up the court 3 times without a timeout, and he thought "defense" was "what kept de cows in de field". Anyone paying him big bucks to sign needs to look up Jim McIlvaine and Eldon Campbell’s contracts for guidance. He will be drafted way too soon. Jerry Stackhouse. Do not draft this brick-layer unless you give up totally on field-goal percentage. All he can do is score, but he shoots 40% to do that. He has no outside shot and no post up game. He can run the break and pretty much sucks. But like Austin, has an agent that hopes no GM knows anything about basketball and wants to throw away money.
You know, it is not the Garnett and Shaq contracts that will ruin basketball. The owners have it wrong. They don’t need to protect themselves from paying the 20 million dollar a year contracts, they need to stop paying stiffs like McIlvaine, Campbell, Vrankovic ($6 million!), Chris Childs and Brent Price all this money on the basis of maybe a half of a season of stats. Make them prove it. If they do, then Austin and Stackhouse will never be overpaid and the owners won’t be complaining about loosing money.
Now, if you have any specific questions for me, just email me at clarida1@pacbell.net and I will answer your questions.
back to:Draft Day Nuggets & Notes Oct. 1997
Draft Day Nuggets & Notes
IF there is a season, or maybe I should say WHEN the season starts, you will need some fine ratings and information to dominate your league this year. It is even more important this year that you use info and "gut-instinct" along with the ratings, as we won’t be seeing any pre-season games because of the SFL (this stands for "Stupid F****ing Lockout") initiated by the owners. As has been shown in all sports, the NBA owners are proving again that you can have lots of money and still be stupid. Wait…is that another Mark McGwire home run I see? No NBA basketball, well, I guess there is nothing else to watch except pro football, college football, college basketball and hockey. So what if Jordan retires? David Stern is the reason the NBA is so successful. Forget Magic and Bird and Michael. Stern can just trot out the new NBA young legends, like Iverson, Sprewell and Webber. I’d sure like to hang my hat on that trio!
Scarcity
What are the hardest things to get in a draft? Blocks and steals. What are the easiest? Points and rebounds. Everybody scores something and you can always find a rebounder around. But try to find blocks or steals in round 10! Last year in our draft, rounds 10 through 12 gave draft choices such as: Otis Thorpe, AC Green, Brian Grant, and Jamal Mashburn. After the draft, players picked up quickly were Rex Chapman, Dennis Rodman and Vashon Lenard. Not a lot of blocks and steals there. But lots of points and rebounds. Early in the draft you need to concentrate on all-around players, but especially ones that get blocks and steals. In our draft this year, my prediction of the 1st round goes like this: Malone, Shaq, Duncan, D. Robinson, Jordan, Payton, Hill, Garnett, Webber and Olajuwon. Notice that out of first 10 picks, 6 block shots and 4 of those 6 are known for steals also. Ewing and Mourning block shots and score, but get no steals. I say in the first 4 or 5 rounds, load up on players who do one or the other if not both. So what if you get overloaded, then you go for strategic players to fill other needs. Scarcity puts fear into other players. One year in a baseball draft, my first 4 picks were: Barry Larkin, Roberto Alomar, Cal Ripken and Carlos Baerga (when he played 2nd base and was great). After I took the fourth player, "Chuckie" in the draft whined: "he took all the middle infielders" and there was a stampede the next few rounds of guys taking Omar Visquel and Greg Gagne leaving me nice picks of players like Wil Clark and Joe Carter.
Games Per Week
With some games canceled this year, I printed out my list of team games by week, but will have to erase the weeks that we lose. This printout is invaluable to players whose league uses a reserve list (most professional money leagues you see in the mags do) because you have to use the "2 game week/4 game week" rotation strategy. You have a couple of players of similar ability (they may or may not do the same things, but rate about the same) who you can switch back and forth on the reserve list based on who plays how many games a week. One week you have a shot-blocker/rebounder up for 4 games, the next week you put him down and bring up a 3-point shooter who plays 4. I give this printout to my subscribers every year. It is a lot of work to produce, but it is worth it. Several teams have 5-game weeks this year. The T-Wolves, Clippers, Hornets, Nets and the Kings. Actually, the Kings have 2 weeks like that, but lost one to the SFL in the 2nd week of the season. The Raptors even have a 1-game week that is NOT the All-Star Week. I sure wouldn’t want to have Doug Christie and Charles Oakley active that week!
Players Comments
So who will be the surprise nuggets this year?
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back to:Rod's February 1, 1999 Newsletter
