Total Adjusted Base Value
After reading a writeup by Bill James in his "Historical Baseball Abstract," I have come to realize that the statistic "secondary average" has some major flaws [bb+ extra bases + stolen bases-caught stealing divided by plate appearances].

My biggest gripe is including walks in the secondary average. I consider receiving base on balls a primary part of batting, not a secondary statistic. The player's primary goal is to get on base anyway possible, including a hit, a base on ball or score a run via home run. Even though hits are worth more than base on balls, batters have been trained and disciplined to take a substancial amount of base on balls because this increases the value of a player. Therefore, I advocate removing the base on balls statistic from the secondary average.

Another misconception used not only in secondary bases, but many other statistics is that "all bases are created equal." This is another of many numerous baseball myths. Hits are of more value than base on balls because they have a much higher potential to create a run for a team. The only way to create a run w/a walk while at home plate is w/the bases loaded [a walked in run]. Stolen bases have very little value unless you sucessfully steal 75% or more of these bases prolifically. Only a few elite players have ever reached this stature [ie; Rickey Henderson, Lou Brock, Ty Cobb, Billy Hamilton, etc]. Most frequent base stealers do so because they lack power or other batting qualities. On the other hand, the above statement is not always true, [see Ty Cobb's and Barry Bond's stats].

What I have done to correct this all too simple "napkin statistic" is to keep the original total bases count, yet reduce the value of the base on ball, stolen bases, and caught stealing. This reads as an approximate total bases per/27 outs. Another way of saying this is that this stat is calculated as if the player is batting one through nine on a batting card in a nine inning game [27 outs].

The statistical formula starts: [h + .75 bb] divided by at bats minus hits and multiply by twenty seven, which represents the amount of adjusted base on balls and regular hits per twenty seven outs [a complete game]. As always, I adjust the base totals to the park factor. [This factor is necessary since every ballpark has different nooks and crannies, some fences are longer and/or higher than others, some climates are more humid than others, and in one case, the altitude has a major impact on the field of play.]

Next, extra bases are added up to the adjusted stolen base count. Each stolen base is worth .667 of a stolen base, while each time a player is caught stealing is worth minus 1.333 stolen base. Once again I adjust the extra bases and stolen bases with the ballpark factor. Then I divide this figure by at bats minus hits. This number represents the number of extra bases and adjusted stolen bases per 27 outs.

To sum things up, I add up the above two calculations, which gives you total bases plus the adjusted base on balls, stolen bases and caught stealing.

So what is this data suppossed to represent? It is meant to document the exact amount of bases off of a hit, while attempting to adjust the base on balls, stolen base and caught stealing calculations. Since walks, stolen bases, and caught stealing are worth considerably a lot less than a hit, it deserves a lesser value than a total base.

Here are the 2004 MLB Adjusted Base Value top ten in the following categories.

Primary Base Value [h x .75 bb divided by ab-hits x 27]per 27/outs

Bonds 34.036
Berkman 19.379
Pujols 19.364
Edmonds 19.241
Drew 18.525
Rollen 18.184
Loretto 18.022
Hafner 17.963
Suzuki 17.898
Guererro 17.889

Secondary Base Value [extra bases + .667 stolen bases - 1.333 caught stealing divided by at bats minus hits x 27] p/27 outs

Bonds 18.832
Edmonds 14.586
Pujols 14.114
Beltre 13.296
Beltron 12.997
Dunn 12.367
Rollen 12.201
Guererro 12.103
Hafner 11.630
Thome 11.049

Total Adjusted Base Value [Primary Base Value + Secondary Base Value]

Bonds 52.886
Edmonds 33.827
Beltre 31.138
Rollen 30.385
Guererro 29.992
Hafner 29.603
Drew 29.100
Berkman 29.032
Dunn 28.748
Beltron 28.414