Brownback Running Third In Iowa
Topic: Sam Brownback
Everyone assumed Sam Brownback would have an advantage in Iowa, but it appears his hard work to win over the Midwest plains region is paying off. Brownback is coming in third in the latest ccAdvertising Iowa poll, ahead of Mitt Romney. It's often said that there are only three tickets out of Iowa in the primary season, and if Sam Brownback can continue to make a good showing in that state, he might just go top tier.

In a survey of nearly 5,000 Iowan homes, Brownback came in with 7% of the vote, behind Rudy Giuliani at 35%, and John McCain at 19%. Romney, assumed by most to be the third top tier candidate, received 5%.

Brownback is becoming better known, so I'll be upping his score in the Name Recognition category; he's showing more electoral appeal, so I'll up his Electability score; he's looking more and more like a serious candidate, so his Campaignability score is going up as well. Brownback is getting right up on Newt Gingrich's heels in the Rankings--if Newt doesn't show some signs of life soon, he might just be forced down into 6th place by Brownback on the rise.

Sam Brownback:
Name Recognition 2.0 2.5
Electability 2.0 3.0
Campaignability 3.5 4.0
OVERALL 4.813 5.063

Romney Announces Candidacy
Topic: Mitt Romney
Mitt Romney made the smart move this week of announcing his presidential candidacy in Michigan, home of the Romney family. Emphasizing his record as an innovator and a reformer, Mitt got off to a great start with a stirring speech.

Hopefully, Mitt will be able to overcome all the accusations of flip flopping that have been nagging at his campaign in the past several months. Romney really does have a great story and record to run on, and it would be a shame if his loss of credibility muted that.

Romney's announcement put him into the news, and people seem to be getting to know him better. He will be touring around the country in the weeks to come, getting his name out there even more. I'm upping his score in the Name Recognition category.

Mitt Romney:
Name Recognition 4.0 4.5
OVERALL 6.313 6.375

Mitt-Flops On Campaign Finance and Education Too??
Topic: Mitt Romney
Not again...!

Romney's campaign seems to have lost control of the reigns these past couple weeks as a deluge of new Mitt-flops (some minor, others quite significant) buffets his campaign.

Last week, it was Mitt's flip-flop on bilingual education. At an Iowa campaign stop, he denounced bilingual education and advocating abolishing it in favor of English-only education. Only problem: He was against English-only education as late as 2002, refusing to endorse a Massachusetts ballot initiative that would have done for his homestate what he was found advocating just last week in Waterloo.

Then, this week, it appears Romney has made an about-face on campaign finance legislation as well. While back in Iowa campaigning for President, Romney called his rival McCain's campaign finance legislation "one of the worst things in my lifetime," saying campaign funding reform had "hurt [his] party." The problem: In 1994, Romney unequivocally supported such legislation, advocating a plan that would tax campaign contributions and saying that PACs should be abolished.

This is not helping Mitt at all, nor is his increasing helplessness to do anything about it. The YouTube generation has created a political world in which not even the slightest word from a decade and a half ago goes unnoticed. Romney's website is slick, but I don't think he understands the power and danger of the Internet in today's modern era. Regardless, Romney is being seen as less and less credible on the Issues front.

Romney's score in the Issues category slides down another notch, not even so much because he at one time held positions that are unpopular with the voting base today, but because he is seemingly changing all his positions to run for President, and that is seen as disingenuous. Even if a few of Rudy Giuliani's views are unpopular, at least people know where he stands. Wishy-washiness can be far more dangerous than sticking to an unpopular position, and Romney seems yet to have learned that. The higher standard that Mitt is being held to might just be the price Romney has to pay for claiming the title of the "real conservative" of the race.

Mitt Romney:
Issues 7.0 6.5
Overall 6.375 6.313

Adding John Cox
Topic: John Cox
All right, all right, if you insist. Responding to the small but vocal cadre of Cox for President supporters, I've decided to give them what they want and add John Cox to the Scoreboard and Rankings. I had previously made it a policy not to include a candidate like John Cox (a candidate with virtually no name recognition, who has never held an actual governmental office, has lost every election he's tried to run for, is being virtually totally ignored by major media outlets, and has yet to even appear as an option on a single scientific/nation-wide poll) on the website, but due to the fact that he is, technically...

A). An official, FEC-registered candidate
B). Serious in intent, not just in it to influence debates (a la Michael Charles Smith)
C). Building an actual campaign organization, bringing in some (albeit few) funds, and making routine trips to key primary states
D). Being included in some state-wide polls
E). Being discussed a little bit by other respectable blogs

...I have decided to let him into the pack here.

Here's where I've clocked Cox in at on the Scoreboard, and why:

Name Recognition 0.0
Virtually zero.

Electability 0.0
Finished fourth in primary for Illinois Congress in 2000, finished third in primary for Illinois Senate in 2002, and lost race for Illinois Cook County Recorder of Deeds in 2004.

Issues 9.5
According what little information we have about him and his statements, is pretty much a solid Reaganite conservative Republican ideologically.

Organization 1.0
Putting forth a lot of effort, but still hasn't been able to really attract any noteworthy backers. Pulls in a couple thousand dollars in fundraising in a good month.

Campaignability 0.5
Lost Illinois Cook County Recorder of Deeds race. Enough said.

Executive Experience 1.5
Most governmental executive position he's ever held was President of the Cook County GOP. Does have a few creds as a business exec, though.

Foreign Policy 0.0
Unclear whether he's ever even been overseas once.

Integrity 9.5
Seems clean enough now, but only because nobody knows/cares enough about him to dig up dirt on him.

This gives John Cox an overall scoreboard rating of:
2.750

Surprisingly, this means Cox doesn't fall into dead last place. Despite zero name recognition and having never won a single election, Cox plops into second to last place, just an inch ahead of Texan Representative Ron Paul. Of course, this says much less about how great a candidate Cox is shaping up to be, and much more about how awful a candidate Paul is shaping up to be, but still, things could be worse. Isn't it sad though that a nobody like John Cox is better positioned to win the nomination, based primarily on the seriousness/professionalism of his campaign, than a veteran politician like Ron Paul who has already once won a presidential nomination?

Wait? Wasn't Jim Gilmore Here Just A Moment Ago...?
Topic: Jim Gilmore
So... where did Jim Gilmore go? It seems he's vanished into thin air. He was making almost weekly trips to Iowa and setting up an organization and hiring staff, but now he's gone. He never even got around to getting a website for that exploratory committee he started up a while back. It's likely everyone's first thoughts about Gilmore were right--he's not really running for President. Virginia Senate or Governor 2.0, maybe, but not President.

All the organization he had supposedly set up in key states like Iowa must have either been A). overrated in quantity, or B). his organization must be really inefficient, because nobody's heard a word from him in almost a month. Meanwhile, Rudy, McCain, and Romney have consolidated almost all the good talent and are now on the endorsements/campaign trail phase of their runs, whilst Sam Brownback is putting the finishing touches on locking up the title of Conservative Alternative, and even underdogs like Thompson, Hunter, and Tancredo are digging their claws into the race.

Because of this, I just can't justify keeping Gilmore's scores as high as they are (which put him at a #7 on the Rankings, right between Brownback and Huckabee). Gilmore's Organization score goes down and so does his Campaignability score.

Jim Gilmore:
Organization 1.5 1.0
Campaignability 3.0 2.0
OVERALL 4.750 4.563
RANKINGS: #7 #8

Mike Huckabee:
RANKINGS: #8 #7

Pataki on '08: Meh.
Topic: George Pataki
In what is probably the worst move George Pataki has made toward advancing his presidential ambitions(?), the former New York Governor today declared (to a group of core New Hampshire supporters) that he's not ready to run for President, and that he won't mind if they decide to endorse some other candidate.

Of course, Pataki's New Hampshire go-to guy David Currier insists Pataki hasn't completely closed the door on a presidential run, but what would you expect from a serious supporter who has already invested a lot of time, energy, money, and credibility in a particular candidate? Yet, for this reason alone (the reason that Pataki still hasn't the said magic words: "I'm not going to run for President in 2008"), I'll leave George Pataki on the Rankings.

However, this shows that Pataki is nowhere near as up to the challenge as everyone assumed he was last summer during Patakihype '06. Things just seem to have gone severely downhill ever since he had that big fall-out in his organization over the abortion issue a couple of months back.

Pataki's name is still lingering around, but he's already done the damage to any presidential campaign he might try to wage in 2008. Because of this and other deteriorating factors, he continues to fade into obscurity (meaning Name Recognition score goes down), corrode further on the organization front (meaning Organization score goes down), drop further into unelectability (meaning Electability and Campaignability scores are going down as well), and drift further away from the GOP primary voting base due to his liberal take on Iraq (meaning Issues score goes down a notch too).

George Pataki:
Name Recognition 3.5 3.0
Electability 1.0 0.5
Issues 3.5 3.0
Organization 3.5 1.5
Campaignability 2.5 0.5
OVERALL 4.188 3.500
RANKINGS CHANGE: #9 #11 (tied w/ Hagel)

Duncan Hunter:
RANKINGS CHANGE: #10 #9

Tom Tancredo:
RANKINGS CHANGE: #11 #10

Chuck Hagel:
RANKINGS CHANGE: #12 #11 (tied w/ Pataki)

Mike Huckabee Sets Up Exploratory Committee
Topic: Mike Huckabee
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is reportedly finally setting up a presidential exploratory committee, which will be unveiled within the next few days. Emphasis on "finally"...

Huckabee, once considered a potential top-tier contender, has waited so long to jump in that his chances of succeeding have been sorely hurt. He's sat by whilst the Big Three (Giuliani, McCain, and Romney) have already sucked up virtually every big-name staff hire, gotten miles ahead in the fundraising game, and established themselves as serious contenders. Huckabee has very little time to do all of that and still make an impact in the primaries.

He has yet to respond to all of the big controversies surrounding his tenure as Governor (such as the Wedding Gift Registry incident, his record on taxes and clemency, and his lack of action in reopening investigation into the infamous West Memphis Three case). He's going to have to start quickly convincing voters why they should vote for another backwoods Southerner who's not the biggest conservative on fiscal matters, and who is seen as out-of-touch with international affairs.

Still, better late than never, so I'll up his Organization category score. Hopefully we'll hear about some notable staff hires and/or campaign plans when the curtains are drawn on the exploratory committee.

Mike Huckabee:
Organization 1.0 1.5
OVERALL 4.563 4.625

McCain and Giuliani Not So Invincible
Topic: Polling
A slew of polls have come tumbling out in recent weeks that's beginning to cast doubt on just how electorally "invincible" the two Republican frontrunners (Rudy Giuliani and John McCain) really are.

Last October, for the first time, a scientific, nation-wide public opinion poll exposed McCain and Giuliani's vulnerabilities to the major Democratic candidates. A CNN Poll showed McCain and Giuliani virtually tied with Hillary Rodham Clinton. Another CNN Poll the next month showed the same thing. Then a Newsweek Poll in December gave the victory to Hillary in matchups with McCain and Rudy, while Barack Obama almost tied the two Republicans. Days later, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll showed John Edwards leading McCain. A mid-December Poll tied Al Gore and Rudy, and had Al Gore actually leading McCain. Newsweek was back on the trail in January, showing McCain losing to Clinton, Obama, and Edwards, with Giuliani hovering within the margin of error in all such matches. A mid-January Time Poll also showed McCain tied with Hillary Rodham.

Virtually every poll before the 2006 mid-term elections made Rudy Giuliani and John McCain out to be untouchable candidates, who always beat every Democratic candidate. While Rudy and McCain still poll better than any other Republican, they seem to have lost that feeling of electoral assurance. Of course, the crosstabs on many of these polls, such as Newsweek's and ABC's show that the polls are vastly and suspiciously weighted in favor of Democrats, and, should the ratio of Republicans to Independents to Democrats by re-weighted according to the actual proportions of party voters in this country, Rudy and McCain come out the winners.

However, because the scoreboard on this site is as much about voter perception of the candidates as it is the actual hard record of the candidates themselves, I can no longer justify keeping McCain and Giuliani's Electability scores as high as they are...

John McCain:
Electability 9.0 8.5
OVERALL 7.000 6.938

Rudy Giuliani:
Electability 9.5 9.0
OVERALL 7.188 7.125

Hunter Announces Candidacy
Topic: Duncan Hunter
San Diego Rep. Duncan Hunter, the little-known bulldog on national defense and fair trade issues, who chaired the House Armed Services Committee in 2006, has officially entered the '08 presidential race, running on the campaign slogan: "Peace Through Strength."

Hunter has already impressed by his ability to campaign, respond to criticism, and his keen awareness of the importance of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina in the Republican nominating process.

About a week ago, he launched his awkwardly titled website: GoHunter08.com(!). The website, which for a few days had been an Under Construction page with a picture of Hunter and a Contribution button, was unveiled in all its glory the day he filed with the FEC to become a candidate (which is better than Ron Paul, who has had a horribly tacky Under Construction page for a website for weeks now). It now looks as though he will add focus on abortion, marriage, taxes, and child protection to his, up-until-now mostly one-sided campaign platform.

Hunter seems to be playing it smart, and has probably been quite underestimated these past few months. But, for recent advances on the Hunter front, I'll up ol' Dunker's scores in the Electability category (because becoming a real candidate is the first step to getting elected), the Organization category (self-explanatory), and the Campaignability category (because he's really surprised me with how well he speaks in public and how intelligently he's running his campaign, considering he's an underdog).

Duncan Hunter:
Electability 0.5 1.5
Organization 2.5 3.0
Campaignability 2.5 3.0
OVERALL 3.688 3.813

Rudy's Abortion Stance Not Looking That Bad
Topic: Rudy Giuliani
Once hailed as the single issue that would bring Rudy to the ground the moment he declared interest in the 2008 presidential race, the abortion issue doesn't seem to have gained that much traction amongst social conservatives as initially expected. Rudy has been out there campaigning, fundraising, and picking up staff for months now, and while there is the constant flow of anti-Rudy articles from the ultra-conservative blogosphere and the obligatory mention of Rudy's abortion stance in any mainstream media article that addresses his '08 candidacy, Rudy has not fallen to the dust as quickly as many Rudy foes predicted.

Despite Rudy's personal pro-choice views on abortion becoming known to the masses, Rudy's poll numbers continue to improve amongst Republican primary goers, key conservative/pro-life leaders like Pat Robertson and Jim Nussle continue to jump on the Rudy bandwagon (even while "pro-life" McCain loses the confidence of conservative leaders like James Dobson), and Rudy's presidential prospects stay very much alive and influential in the '08 race.

As a recent National Review article highlighted over the weekend, Rudy is actually very much anti-abortion in his personal views, but holds a more libertarian view on it from a governmental standpoint (quite similar to the Bush/Rice/Powell take on abortion). To back this up, the article puts up the hard facts and statistics: abortions in NYC actually decreased at a far faster rate under Giuliani than they did on the national level, and New York conservative leaders familiar with Giuliani can't seem to think of a single thing Mayor Giuliani did to actively promote abortion in NYC, other than espouse his personal views on the matter.

The article even quotes Rudy expressing his disdain for the act of abortion, saying: "I don't like abortion. I don't think abortion is a good thing. I think we ought to find some alternative to abortion, and that there ought to be as few as possible."

Rudy's been able to pave over the potential speedbump in recent months by his outspoken advocacy of appointing strict constructionist judges to the Supreme Court (specifically naming Roberts and Alito as ideal justices, and Scalia as an ideal chief justice). His record of supporting adoption as an alternative to abortion, his time of presiding over a period of NYC's history where taxpayer-funded Medicaid abortions plummeted (a trend that reversed itself once Giuliani left office), and his hiring of a very pro-life presidential campaign team (again emphasizing Jim Nussle) also do nothing but help Rudy with social conservatives. He can even point to that anti-Rudy political organization (SayNoToRudy.org) whose socially conservative leaders, in their zeal to dig up all the dirt on Rudy, actually became convinced that he wasn't all that bad of a guy (those same folks can now be found at the pro-Giuliani RudyRoots.org).

If Rudy can keep this up, he might find that social conservatives could care less about his personal pro-choice stance, as long as he promises to appoint more Scalias and to promote alternatives to abortion.

I think Rudy's "pro-choice deathtrap" has been way overhyped. Credit should be given where it's due. Rudy still just isn't looking that bad to grassroots conservative voters. His Issues score improves.

Rudy Giuliani:
Issues 5.0 5.5
OVERALL 7.125 7.188