HISTORY OF THE CONFLICT    Karabakh is a small mountainous region located in the southwestern part of Azerbaijan. Often referred to as Nagorno-Karabakh in western media Karabakh has been populated by native Armenians and, until late 1980's had an approximately 10% Azeri population mostly concentrated in a towns of Shusha and Khodjali as well as in other small villages. History of this beautiful land has been a subject of debate between Azerbaijani and Armenian historians. However, the most recent developments have not been fully studied by scientist and are still quite fresh in the memories of Azeris. One million refugees in a state of seven million people have fled the invading forces during the war which started in 1988. Unbeknownst to Westerners who have the luxury of watching the world through the screen of their TV's and who have enjoyed the falling of Berlin wall, thinking that the Cold War is over, communism defeated and all can live happily ever after a whole new line of troubles began on the ex-communist territories as ex-Soviet KGB began its struggle to regain control over the widely recognized "emerging democracies" - the fourteen ex-Soviet republics . In a fundamentally new political environment with mushrooming patriotic movements, new leaders and western influence pouring through he borders came an epidemic of ethnic wars. While different reasons were used to put those conflicts ablaze and whether or not Moscow was responsible for them or merely capitalized on the event may be irrelevant. It appears obvious that progress of these conflicts was fueled by the ex-communist leaders of newly-independent Russia depending on 'behavior' of a particular country. The first "playground" was set up in Karabakh. In late 1988 following resignation of then-Politburo member and native Azerbaijani, Heydar Aliyev - currently president of Azerbaijan Republic - Armenians of Karabakh held several demonstrations in Khankendi (formerly Stepanakert), capital of then-Karabakh Autonomous Region expressing their wish to unite with the Republic of Armenia. Soon, after the news of public manifestations reached Baku, capital of Azerbaijan, Azeri population of Baku responded with actions of protest and demanding that the issue was not to be discussed. However, peaceful marches soon were followed by first blood.  FIRST VICTIMS  Two Azeri men were murdered in an Azeri populated town of Agdam a few months later and a flow of Azeri refugees from Armenia to Azerbaijan began. The refugees, once crossed the border and searched for temporary shelter told stories of horror and killings which caused them to flee. While this did not result in major clashes between Azeris and Armenians in regions neighboring with Armenia, some refugees had to travel all the way to Baku and other major cities in Eastern Azerbaijan which had significant Armenian population. In early 1989 this resulted in outbursts of violence aimed at local Armenian population in a city of Sumgait (near Baku). Casualties: 26 dead. In later years the investigation of Sumgait tragedy revealed that the group of murderers was not only comprised of representatives of different nationalities but was lead by an Armenian resident of Sumgait whose name escaped my memory. The flow of refugees from Armenia continued. Peaceful public meetings in Baku and Yerevan, capital of Azerbaijan and Armenia became an everyday event, while Azeri refugees fleeing brutalities of Armenian authorities came face to face with Armenian population of Baku and tension was increasing daily.  JANUARY 20, 1990  In November 1989, in response to the news that Azeri national monuments in Karabakh (Topkhana) were being destroyed by Armenians to eliminate the evidence of Azeribaijan's historical roots in Karabakh, demonstrators on Baku's Azadliq (Freedom) square refused to leave until the destruction of monuments of history was stopped. Authorities failed to respond and the meeting continued until the tension between still arriving Azeri refugees and Armenians who lived in Azeri capital fueled by the news from Karabakh resulted in violence. In spite the presence of a significant contingent of Soviet Internal Troops in Baku (I personally witnessed them marching through the streets) the violence against Armenians was not stopped. I personally heard a Russian commander say the following: "If they are not harming Russians, then we are not going to intervene." But it appears that the captain's words were a signal to something more devastating to happen: The troops in Baku waited for killings to stop and a week after that day when Armenians were killed in Baku an armada of Russian motorized division entered Baku opening fire at sight. Hundreds of unarmed civilians were killed on the night of January 20, 1990 and are remembered by Azeris on that day every year. A memorial is built on a hill in Baku where the victims were buried.  COLLAPSE OF USSR - SOVIET ARMY LEAVES ARMS BEHIND With dissolution of the Soviet Union violence in Karabakh escalated into an armed conflict. Immediately following the January tragedy in Baku, Azerbaijan was looking to heal the wounds while its borders came under constant attacks by Armenian militants scattered along the border with Azerbaijan. Reports of villages being attacked, fire upon came daily and the Azeri nation demoralized and devastated was unable to respond. Later in that same year as the Russian troops left the capital of Azerbaijan and began simultaneously supplying arms to both sides the conflict a newly organized Azeri army began returning fire at the border maintaining a stand off. Arms were also used in firing between Khankendi and Shusha, an Armenian and Azeri strongholds in Karabakh. As time passed and more weapons became available from departing Russian army, the shootings of a provoking nature was replace by a full scaled bombardments with usage of heavy artillery and large-caliber firearms and therefore, number of wounded and killed increased. Pretty soon the sides were fighting a war. In February 1992 Armenians occupied the only Azeri city in Karabakh - Shusha. Only months later - Lachin Region - region separating Armenia from Karabakh was also occupied by Armenians. Simultaneously in democratic election held in Azerbaijan in June 1992 a new President, Abulfaz Elchibey, was elected. In spite the expectations Elchibey's primary goal was to avoid joining the new union which the Moscow political circles had planned to replace the old USSR. Government in former Soviet republic were pressured to join and Azerbaijan was one of those not willing to sign an agreement. Therefore, now was the time for Moscow to use the best weapon against Azerbaijan - Karabakh conflict. So they did. The flow of weaponry, military instructors, soldiers of Russian Army in Armenia to Karabakh Armenians increased significantly - and they acted on this advantage promptly. Armenian Troops, having driven all Azeri population from Karabakh began a full scale invasion of other regions of Azerbaijan adjacent to Karabakh.  The invasion continued until summer 1993 when Elchibey's government, weakened by internal disagreements and insubordination from an Army Colonel S. Husseynov (who later turned out to be receiving orders from Moscow) tuned to Heydar Aliyev - the very person whose resignation from USSR Politburo in 1988 gave Armenians an opportunity to raise the issue of Karabakh. Aliyev, on pick of his popularity, upon return to Baku held Presidential elections and was elected a president in 1993. Later in 1994 after bloody battles in territories adjacent to Karabakh, Armenians agreed to a cease-fire, which is still in force. RUSSIAN FACTOR This might be a good time to bring the Russian factor into the picture. While generally interested in regaining and maintaining control over all ex-Soviet territories, official Moscow has had special taste in Azerbaijan and its oil reserves. The conflict, as I have mentioned above was used to manipulate the politicians both in Baku and Yerevan, as well as other areas of ex-USSR. Therefore, subordination of one party to the conflict would automatically make the other more vulnerable. Armenians government, realizing obvious gains of such "friendship" with Moscow quickly joined the Commonwealth of Independent States insuring the guardianship of Russia - precisely what official Baku was determined to avoid. Therefore, it was not a coincidence that a massive Armenian offensive began immediately after the Moscow oriented President (Ayaz Mutalibov) was overthrown and replaced by an acting President. While lose of territories did speed up the process of bringing democratic forces of Azerbaijan Popular Front, lead by A. Elchibey) to power (June 1992) the Armenian war effort became significantly stronger after that. One can't help wonder where Armenia, which had been under economic blockade for several years by then, got so much military power from.  Presence of group of major international oil companies in Baku striving to sign oil deals was another factor which was pushing Moscow to act promptly. By late May 1993 Elchibey was planning a trip to London, during which the oil deals were to be signed. All the defeats in the Armenian-Azerbaijan front lines failed to shift the focus of Elchibey's government from away from the oil deals. "Coincidentally", in early June (days before Elchibey's planned trip to London) an Azeri army colonel S. Husseynov orders his battalion to march on Baku to "take over the government". Allegedly, a planned (master-minded in Moscow) was to use Husseynov to overthrow the Elchibey government and, at the right moment bring Moscow's man Mutallibov back to power. This would have been a good plan…except Elchibey interfered with it again. He called Heydar Aliyev for help who, having many factors on his side, successfully secured control of the country, put an end to Armenian offensive, which, considering failure of Moscow's plans in latest developments in Baku power structure would have to become even stronger. Nevertheless, numerous attempts to remove Aliyev in later years failed. His government signed first oil deal in 1994 and many more have been signed since. Increasing investments in the economy by Western companies brought the needed support of the West, including US and British Governments.  Karabakh peace negotiations are underway. Although little progress is being made due to reluctance of both parties to compromise. However, the Azeris are determined to regain control of lost territories, as perhaps Armenians intend to defend them. Therefore, it is quite safe to conclude that this article is to be continues. December 9, 1999