大選前夕：
『目前大選情勢的架構是：『四家競逐，三強鼎立』。多數的 政治評論皆認為：明年三月的新總統，得票率將低於百分之五十。 如果出現一個得票率低於百分之五十的總統，此一政治訊息可 從兩種角度來解讀：
第一， 倘若連戰當選，但得票率低於百分之五十；則意味連 戰雖然當選，卻有超過百分之五十的選民未將選票投給國民黨。也 就是說，連戰將是憲政史上首度出現的國民黨籍『少數總統』。這 種情勢將是，國民黨保住了政權，卻失去了社會多數的支持。 黨員、黨工們惴惴不安，不為別的，也是擔心連宋相爭，最後 將國民黨本可延續的政權拱手讓給了阿扁。
第二， 倘若連戰落選，而由陳水扁或宋楚瑜當選；則出現了 行憲以來第一位非國民黨籍的總統，這也就是目前被廣泛討論的 『政黨輪替』。然則，國民黨的處境將是：失去了政權，也失去了 社會多數的支持。
這次大選倘若出現前述兩種情勢之一，皆顯示這個社會出現了 巨大變化。也就是說，無論連戰當選與否，都將出現一個『百分之 五十以上選民不支持國民黨總統候選人』的憲政首例。 社會為何會出現這種變化，或許可從其他多種角度來解釋；但 是，一般認為，如今社會金字塔底層出現的變化，毋寧是最顯著且 最具指標作用的徵兆。
先從陳水扁的支持者談起。所有的民調皆顯示，民進黨在草根 層次擁有雄厚的支持群眾；這股草根力量，以反現狀為主要訴求， 甚至希望完全顛覆現狀。這股力量並非新生事物，而是存在已久， 一直是民進黨的支持者，也是構成社會金字塔基層的主要材質。然 而民進黨及陳水扁如今在青年及校園族群受到熱烈支持，卻是近年 來愈演愈盛的新生事物。這些社會新生代，在社會地位上亦是處於 社會金字塔底層；但他們與草根力量不同處，在於立場更具知識性 及理論性，且掌握了社會的未來。
再談宋楚瑜的支持者。宋楚瑜的支持者也出現龐大雄厚的草根 力量，這是『宋楚瑜現象』最值得注意處。與民進黨的草根力量不 同，支持宋楚瑜的草根力量比較傾向維護現狀，亦無顛覆現狀的政 治情緒；且這股支持宋的鄉土族群，也許在上次選舉中還拿過國民 黨的『走路工』，甚至世代皆是國民黨的派系人脈；但如今他們卻 支持宋，背棄國民黨。這種金字塔底層的變化，毋寧是國民黨的最 大隱憂。國民黨一直說國民黨不會分裂，這句話的意義是，李登輝 與章孝嚴或蘇南成等國民黨高層不會分裂；但國民黨在社會上的傳 統支持群眾，卻一直在持續且擴大分裂中。前一波分裂，是許多中 產階級揮別國民黨，亦即新黨效應；如今又見許多草根群眾轉而支 持宋楚瑜，顯見國民黨社會政治資源之分裂，在性質及層次上都愈 來愈嚴重。當鄉村的阿公阿婆都站出來為宋主張公道之際，國民黨 當權派確實應警覺基層政治資源的嚴重流失。
最後來看連戰的情勢。仔細觀察電視上的選情造勢場合，或許 會發現幾位準候選人的支持群體儼然出現『階級性』區隔，以致有 人說『高層支持連戰，基層支持宋楚瑜及陳水扁』。目前最令人擔 心的趨勢是：倘若連戰最後僅獲得百分之四十上下的選票；則國民 黨就不啻成為一個少數既得利益所簇擁的政黨，亦既顯示國民黨的 全民性及基層性已告嚴重銷蝕，這將有極嚴重的政治效應。 因為，國民黨若淪為在總統選舉中得票率僅四成上下，未來必 然會更加籠絡黑金勢力，而完全失去改革的空間及餘裕。如此一 來，國民黨的票選基礎愈來愈失去基層性及全民性，則未來對既得 利益階層及黑金勢力的依賴就愈嚴重；而一旦對既得利益及黑金勢 力的依賴愈嚴重，國民黨的全民性及基層性也將愈形銷蝕。如此因 果反覆，就會形成一個可怕的惡性循環，一切政治改革也就失去憑 藉。就目前趨勢來看，
大選前夕，臺灣社會確已出現巨大變化，其中又以社會金字塔 基層的變化最值得注意。因此觀察這次總統大選時，不要只看誰當 選或誰落選，而要注意觀察社會底層的政治版塊正在進行驚人的變化.
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﹝吳崑玉 -- 公關公司企劃總監﹞
兩黨要員近日不斷強調未來仍是政黨政治天下，甚至將『超黨 派全民政府』的主張與希特勒相比擬，似乎連政治學理與歷史教詞 也可被扭曲為選舉帽子。
現代政黨起源於十七、八世紀的英國，起初是支持皇權的騎士 黨，與國會出身的國顱黨一番血腥惡鬥，殺了專制的查理一世，換 來一樣專制的克倫威爾，一六八八年的權利法案之後，保皇派議員 與貴族集結為保守黨，反對皇權擴張者成為自由黨，英國兩黨政治 仍逐漸成形。
在地球另一端，中國人對黨向無好感，歷代的『黨爭』、『黨 錮』多被視為王朝覆亡的遠因，中國的政黨自國民黨始，但是政黨 間既無階級之別，亦無理念主義之分，只是派系的擴大而已，唯一 一次的兩黨對決，卻是國民黨與共產黨的武力相向，政黨僅是個別 政治－武力集團的代名詞，只是劉邦、項羽、黃巾、明教的現代 版。至民進黨組黨以民主與反民主區隔兩黨，臺灣才漸有政黨政 治，至國發會後，政黨界線又趨模糊。
換言之，從中西政治史來看，政黨不是政治的必然，僅是時代 需求的產物。因此，國情不同，政黨型態與區分方式就不同，英國 黨紀甚嚴，美國的民主黨大將則可跳去共和黨政府當聯合國大使 （雷根時代的寇派翠克夫人）；時代不同，政黨的任務、功能、組 織、權力獲取方式也有所不同（如民進黨也經歷群眾路線起家、議 會路線得權的過程）。政黨存續的關鍵，是黨意與當時民意是否結 合，是政黨決策能否以民眾福祉為依歸，而不是政黨應否存在的天 命論。再來看希特勒，他不是靠超黨派當選總理，而是靠納粹黨在 選舉中獲勝，當上總理，再利用國會改革、修憲、廢憲等手段，達 成一黨專制的霸權。希特勒是靠黨意呼籲民意（解決當時德國嚴重 的失業與經濟問題）而取得初始權力，靠清除黨內雜音，讓黨機器 『塑造』民意而奪權，而因黨機器轉為一人意志服務，成為驅使人 民的工具，而造成德國的覆亡，如果納粹黨徒堅持站在人道與民意 這一邊，不願成為希特勒一人的工具，德國也不會走上戰爭之途。
從歷史、從學理、從現勢來看，政黨政治都不是必然的當國內 各政黨能分別代表、有效傳達各階層、各族群的民意，政黨才能個 別生存競爭。當主要政黨愈來愈像，甚至代表同一階級利益，重視 黨意黨利甚於民意民利，便使原本的小黨有茁壯空間，更可能有新 興政黨出現，超黨派的訴求也更能得到回應。這是個別政黨的問 題，與趨勢無關。
因此，兩黨高層要檢討研究的，不是未來政黨政治的趨勢問 題，而是黨的決策是否與民眾站在一邊？如果黨機器封閉了民意上 達的管道，成為執行一人意志的工具，認為民意是可以塑造的，黨 機器動起來就無人可以擋，這個政黨便『已經』走上希特勒與納粹 黨的道路。人民的抉擇，將決定的不是超黨派與不超黨派的問題， 而是支持納粹式政黨而讓國家覆亡？還是揮淚斬馬謖，保存國家命 脈與民主精神？
政黨政治是否存續，關係的只是一小撮政治人物的前途。黨機 器是否能將民意上達成為決策、黨意是否能與民意結合、政黨到底 對一般小民有什麼功用，才是臺灣人民所關切的問題。近年選舉不 斷出現『選人不選黨』的現象，便是臺灣人心『超黨派』選擇的證 明。超黨派不是無黨派，更不是消滅黨派，所以黨官們不必太憂 心，只要能夠調整一下方位，將一人意志的工具，轉為民意上達、 化成政策的服務機關，政黨政治就會延續下去。
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No one blinked when longtime Kuomingtang politician James Soong (Sung-Chu-yu) announced last week that he would defy party elders and run independently for president of the Republic of China on Taiwan in the March 2000 elections.
Soong, 57, made his announcement Friday, July 16, but the news flew was clogged with Beijing's angry response to Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui's earlier declaration that China must deal with Taiwan on a state-to state basis and in the United States with the search for the missing plane of John F. Kennedy Jr., son of the former U.S. president.
In the first place, the touch-all-bases move by Lee was brilliant in its conception, execution and timing. Lee's statement not only immobilized the domestic opposition and put Beijing and the U.S. in the position of being made to think for a change, but also solidified his place in history. The only question is whether he has overextended himself since it is his disciple (Lien Chan) who is the candidate, not himself.
Among East Asia specialists, Lee's move was a surprise only by its timing.
The move by Soong also had been expected but was hyped in importance by its timing in a chain of events that saw U.S. President Bill Clinton phoning Chinese President Jian Zemin to reiterate Washington's stand on the "one China" policy, and hearing Jiang's insistence that China had not ruled out the use of force to settle the Taiwan issue.
The overall winner will be democracy. The election demonstration will be, in effect, what many in Taiwan have been seeking all along: a referendum. The winner of a three way race, if it goes forward, will give a clear indication of what Taiwan people want.
It is the height of irony that the U.S., after long encouraging Taiwan to be democratic, seems to favor the mainland based on outdated arguments.
The Most Enlightened Political Thinking Award goes to Lee, whose overture will require both Beijing and Washington to do some creative brain work for a change.
Soong, despite brusque treatment by Lee, finds his popularity is undiminished. Opinion polls have shown Soong well ahead of the likely KMT candidate, Vice President Lien Chan, 64, and the top opposition challenger, former Taipei Mayor Chen Shui-bien, 49, of the Democratic Progressive Party, which has advocated independence.
A recent poll conducted by the China Times showed Soong had 36 percent of the public's support, against Chen's 22percent and Lien's 15 percent.
The poll of 1,020 Taiwanese, conducted July 9, had a margin of error of 3.1percent.
Soong said he sought his own candidacy because the KMT had failed to come up with what he considered a fair way to nominate the party's candidate to replace Lee. Chen says Soong will falter on issues because he can't appeal to both the pro-China and pro-independence voters.
Lien represents Taiwan and KMT "old money" and as Lee's preferred successor is expected to win the nomination at a party congress on Aug. 21. Soong's defection makes Lien's candidacy at the top of the KMT apparatus and Lee's backing enough to pull Lien through?
Lien is regarded as aloof and colorless. In 1996, in an effort to brighten his image as vice presidential candidate on the Lee ticket, KMT publicist came up with the idea of announcing that Lien left the office each day at noon to have lunch with his aging mother. But the ploy backfired when Taipei's aggressive press proved that Lien's lunchtime motorcade caused disruption and resulted in what became to be known as "the Lien traffic jam."
The last president Chiang Ching-kuo, son of Gen. Chian Kai-shek, ended martial law and set Taiwan on a major reform movement toward democracy. The reforms on a grand scale earned him regard as a "Great Kelmsman" of Chinese society, along with Chairman Mao Ze-dong and Deng Xiao-ping. Jiang has not yet achieved that status among astute Sinologists.
Part of his talent was in choosing leader for the future. Chiang personally tapped a group of young people all with Western and Japanese education, to become the core of Taiwan's and KMT's leadership after he was gone. The result has been enduring legacy.
Soong was director general of the Government Office when he led me into an interview with Chiang up a red-carpeted stairway in the grand Japanese-built presidential office building in late 1982.
The interpreter for that session was Ma Ying-jeou, just returned from Harvard to be a presidential secretary. Now 49, Ma has been minister of justice and is currently mayor of Taipei. Some believe a Soong-Ma ticket in 2000 would be unbeatable, though it is improbable.
Chiang in that 1982 interview sketched plans for reform that began to be realized with the lifting of martial law in 1987 and setting Taiwan on a democratic course. The rest is history, including the 1996 election of Lee, the first freely elected Chinese president.
Mainland-born Soong, ever the loyal KMT soldier, marched up the party stairs to secretary general and then election as provincial governor. But that position was dissolved under a Lee-engineered constitutional amendment.
The independent views articulated by Soong have rubbed Lee the wrong way and the two former staunch KMT colleagues now have become rivals as Soong refuses to run as Lien's vice president.
It was Soong who convinced Madame Chiang Kai-Shek (Soong May-ling, but no relation) to give up her objection to Taiwan-born Lee running for president for a full term after succeeding the late president. The aging KMTmatriarch still wielded power among old-line KMT members.
With all angles considered, many Western analysts are turning to Soong as the best hope to lead Taiwan to an eventual accommodation with China and to maintain stability in the Taiwan Strait. He is extremely popular among American businessman, scholars and journalists.
In Japan, Soong does not have Lee's Kyoto alumni contacts but has many ties among the younger political and business generation.
But just as Soong's announcement of candidacy was no surprise to Taiwan-watchers, Lee's announcement of a "two states" proposal was expected and seen as the realization of a goal in Lee's thinking to dislodge Taiwan from China.
Lee recently has admitted that 1991 and 1992 constitutional amendments were signed at the eventual process of giving Taiwan separate sate status.
In 1993, Lee, a Christian, told the late Japanese author Ryotaro Shiba that he saw himself as the Moses of Taiwan. This meant the splitting of Taiwan from China, since Moses took his Jewish people away from Egypt.
Another rationale given for Lee's timing, which has projected Soong into a leading position, is reaction to U.S. pressure. There is the uncertainty of a new U.S. president being elected in 2000 but some academics say the U.S. role has moved from nonintervention to advocating a 50-year period where Taiwan would not declare independence and Beijing would not use force.
The idea is not new, Chairman Mao told then U.S. President Richard Nixon in 1972 "we can wait 100 years to recover Taiwan." The urgency of the question today is an invention of a politically conscious military on the mainland.
