The
object of this page is to provide a guide and an idea of the philosophy of the
portfolio we are going to construct. It is a balanced portfolio and should give
us all enough confidence to hold on to the selected stocks unless they no
longer meet the reasons for having selected the particular investment.
A question to be addressed is: what to do and how to
carry out on a monthly basis the research and evaluation of our investments.
It is the founder’s idea that each Members or Groups of Members embrace an
industry to cover, thereby addressing one industry per month. The Member (s)
covering the industry will present their facts to the club. It will be the
president’s duty to oversee and aid the Industry Group of Members and
assure that everyone is sharing in his or her responsibilities. The following
table is a likely scenario for investing in one industry at a time as well as
for investing in one “level” before moving down toward MID CAP and SMALL CAPS. Let
it be known that the universe of companies to study will be limited to the
S&P 500 or the Nasdaq 100 so that we won’t stray into companies with lesser
credentials. In this example we’ll
assume that LARGE CAP is a company that is greater than 20 billion, a MID CAP
one between 2 and 20 Billion and finally a SMALL CAP is one under 2 billion.
D E P T H L E V E L |
DIVERSIFICATION
CYCLE FOR INVESTING IN INDUSTRIES
(EXAMPLES ONLY!!!)****** |
||||||||||
MONTH |
January |
February |
March |
April |
May |
June |
July |
August |
September |
October |
|
INDUSTRY |
Information Technology |
Financials |
Health Care |
Consumer Discretionary |
Industrials |
Consumer Staples |
Energy |
Telecommunication Services |
Utilities |
Materials |
|
LARGE CAP (1) each |
MSFT, IBM, INTC |
C, AIG, JPM |
PFE, JNJ, MRK, BMY, MDT, SGP |
WMT, AOL, HD, DIS, TGT |
GE, TYC, MMM, ADP |
KO, PG, MO, PEP, KMB |
XOM, RD, SLB, P, CVX |
SBC, VZ, Q, PCS |
DUK, EP |
DD, DOW, AA, IP |
|
MID CAP (1) each |
ALTR, VTSS, PMCS, CIEN, AMD |
KEY, TROW, PNC |
IMNX, FRX, CI, WLP, BGEN, BDX |
HOT, JNY, MYG, LIZ, BDK, WEN |
ITT, DAL, ROK, FLR, AW, IR |
HSY, CLX, ADM, AVP, CVS, CPB, K |
CMS, TE, NE, AYE |
AT, NXTL |
PCG, EXC, AES |
WY, ROH, ECL, ABX |
|
SMALL CAP (1) each |
NOVL or ANDW |
CNC |
QTRN, HUM |
TUP, CTB, DDS, RBK |
MDR, PWER, CUM, NAV |
WIN, RKY, ACV |
RDC, SUN |
CZN |
PGL, GAS |
FCX, ATI, LPX, BCC |
How
will we get to the point of knowing which companies in each industry to own in
our Portfolio? In lieu of not
having other inputs the suggested approach is to evaluate each company and its
peers for each industry and take it to a vote of the Members. This implies that Current Members will
present facts about the respective industries and its more important companies.
As
for when will we sell any of these stocks is concerned, we intend on re-visiting the holdings at a
years time or cycle for that matter and seeing if they still fit with the
reasons we acknowledged at the time we bought them. At that time we can:
(a) Continue to dollar cost into the stock
(b) Leave that holding alone and invest future money
in a different company within the same industry or
(c) We can sell the holding and move on to a more
appealing company if we so decide.
Can
a stock be brought up in an emergency type situation? Yes if for any reason important fundamentals are
changing causing to examine the stock in such haste.
Now, there is yet another question to be answered, namely, how to go about investing in the companies we have selected in each industry.
Suggested Procedure:
From
the day we know which companies will represent each level (LARGE CAP first) we
can track the their performance relative to one another, and since we are going
to own them all down the road, we can jump on the one that is moving higher,
followed the next month by the one that is down the most, then on the third
month (depending on the cash we can collect) we can repeat this unbiased method
of deciding which one to own next. This
mechanical procedure should free Members from having to make decisions by vote every month. This method should put to rest most ancieties. We can use
the time we saved for other business. The logic for investing in the
stock that is moving is to capture that stock for the long term early enough in
the cycle to benefit if it will become a success story. The logic for investing
in the one that is down the most is a measure to not let escape a bargain stock
that we will own down the road anyhow. There are also countered reasons for not
investing in the one that moves first and for not investing in the one that is
under performing the group also. However, I ran some trials and discovered that
using both methods as opposed to buying the prevailing under performer or the
prevailing best performing one, can arbitrate any risk of under performing the
broad markets.
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